Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

46 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Apparently the Royals and Marlins discussed Pasquantino for Luzardo.  If he's truly available, would prefer Luzardo over Cease easily.  

I would love Luzardo but Vinnie P being available is the real headline here.  I'd absolutely kill to have him at 1B for the next five years

 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

That Cease thing from Levine is all speculation. He suggested it on Cubs 360 this week. His proposal was Ben Brown, Ballesteros, and an “A ball pitcher.”

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

That Cease thing from Levine is all speculation. He suggested it on Cubs 360 this week. His proposal was Ben Brown, Ballesteros, and an “A ball pitcher.”

Wish he was the Sox GM.

[chibears55]

Another silent night from the Cubs transaction room...

 

[Soul]

15 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Another silent night from the Cubs transaction room...

 

Yeah anti-climactic doesn’t adequately describe this, especially after the Counsell signing.

[WhyCantWeWin]

3 hours ago, muntjack said:

Apparently the Royals and Marlins discussed Pasquantino for Luzardo.  If he's truly available, would prefer Luzardo over Cease easily.  

I'd like the Cubs to try and get Pasquantino

[Bull]

On 12/22/2023 at 5:00 PM, chopsx9 said:

horsefeathers that. I hope they make it to the next 10 WS and lose them all.

You hope the cubs don’t win the WS for the next 10 years?

[muntjack]

I don't understand what makes Pasquantino such a hot commodity.  26 y.o. 1b/dh with a great hit tool who was worth 0.0 WAR last season.  Educate me.  

[Tryptamine]

31 minutes ago, muntjack said:

I don't understand what makes Pasquantino such a hot commodity.  26 y.o. 1b/dh with a great hit tool who was worth 0.0 WAR last season.  Educate me.  

25-30 HR upside, while striking out less than 15% of the time and walking in excess of 10% of the time, While also having a high Hard%(39.3%) and low SOFT%(13.4). Comparatively, Freddie Freeman was at 36.9% and 10.6% in those two categories while sporting very similar K% and BB%. The two big differences that keep Pasquantino from being unlikely to approach a player of Freeman's level is that he's incredibly, like ridiculously slow type slow, and Freeman has kept one of the highest LD%s in MLB for the better part of a decade now while Pasquatino hits more flyballs and is a bit pull heavy for my liking. 

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, muntjack said:

I don't understand what makes Pasquantino such a hot commodity.  26 y.o. 1b/dh with a great hit tool who was worth 0.0 WAR last season.  Educate me.  

His xData is really good. His ISO got better from 2022 (when he had a 130 wRC+) and his xWOBA remained a very good .350. Awesome K:BB. His LA got a really big bump, too. His BABIP dropped .50 points, and his hard hit numbers got worse, however. His Savant page in 2022 was impressive as hell, and while there's plenty of excellent stuff in his 2023, there were those issues and his Savant page looks worse too.

There's probably a small tweak needed to get him back to where he was. But there's also plenty underlying where you can see Vinnie P putting up 130 wRC+ with excellent plate approaches for the next 5 years of control. If you feel like you're capable of making that tweak, there aren't many DH/1b who have the combination of approach, power, and control that Pasquatino offers.

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

When you plug guys into BBTV, which several guys have referenced here,  to determine if trade values are equal, it looks like Cease should cost something like Brown, Wicks and Alcantara. And if the Sox wanted to move Moncada and his salary, he is actually negative value. That sort of deal would work for just Alcantara and Wicks. I know that site isn’t something that should be used to make up deals, but I would think it shouldn’t be that far off. I would do a deal with or without Moncada. 

I looked at BBTV too, but I think in today's situation you're going to have to overpay to get the quality you want/need or else some other team is going to outbid you.  Any of the kind of pitchers like Cease, Gilbert, Luzardo, etc. are going to cost you either PCA or Morel.  There's a reason that PCA, Morel, and Horton have high trade values and other GMs know it.  Most of our "prized prospects" that Jed overvalues are secondary pieces in a trade for a star player.  

[PackLandVA]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Another silent night from the Cubs transaction room...

 

Yep, it's been a pretty Blue Christmas regarding free agency so far.

Usually the beginning of free agency is The Most Wonderful Time of the Year.

Gonna just have to Believe something good will happen soon.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I looked at BBTV too, but I think in today's situation you're going to have to overpay to get the quality you want/need or else some other team is going to outbid you.  Any of the kind of pitchers like Cease, Gilbert, Luzardo, etc. are going to cost you either PCA or Morel.  There's a reason that PCA, Morel, and Horton have high trade values and other GMs know it.  Most of our "prized prospects" that Jed overvalues are secondary pieces in a trade for a star player.  

They need offense. Don’t want to give up Morel. Wouldn’t give up PCA for Cease either. If the Cubs did sign Bellinger again, I wouldn’t mind seeing PCA for Luzardo or PCA being the main piece in a deal for Gilbert. I don’t think I would touch Horton either, except for Gilbert. They should be able to get Cease without any of those 3. If they have to they can take Moncada to lessen the prospect capital they would need to trade. 

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

That Cease thing from Levine is all speculation. He suggested it on Cubs 360 this week. His proposal was Ben Brown, Ballesteros, and an “A ball pitcher.”

I guess when there's no news you just have to make up your own trades to fill air time lol

[Layoutman]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

I guess when there's no news you just have to make up your own trades to fill air time lol

For sure it's crap. It will take a haul to get Cease.  

[Backtobanks]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

They need offense. Don’t want to give up Morel. Wouldn’t give up PCA for Cease either. If the Cubs did sign Bellinger again, I wouldn’t mind seeing PCA for Luzardo or PCA being the main piece in a deal for Gilbert. I don’t think I would touch Horton either, except for Gilbert. They should be able to get Cease without any of those 3. If they have to they can take Moncada to lessen the prospect capital they would need to trade. 

The rest of my Christmas list included signing Bellinger, and trading for Naylor, Bieber, and Clase.

Adding Bellinger, Naylor, and Moncada to the lineup adds more than enough offense to win the divsion.

This trade reminds me of the first Cease trade, where we needed a solid, established SP (Quintana) and had to give up two of our top prospects (Jimenez and Cease).

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

The rest of my Christmas list included signing Bellinger, and trading for Naylor, Bieber, and Clase.

Adding Bellinger, Naylor, and Moncada to the lineup adds more than enough offense to win the divsion.

This trade reminds me of the first Cease trade, where we needed a solid, established SP (Quintana) and had to give up two of our top prospects (Jimenez and Cease).

Taking Moncada back isn’t adding offense. It is adding a negative value player and a contract he isn’t worth. I would give up Alcantara instead of Morel with the guys you mentioned and it would still be an overpay. But one I would do, and probably what would be needed because I do agree with you that in order to deal minor league talent for major league talent they will have to overpay to be the best deal. Obviously we know none of this will happen. Just nice to have a baseball chat once in a while. Man, something does need to happen soon!!!!

[Rob]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Taking Moncada back isn’t adding offense. It is adding a negative value player and a contract he isn’t worth. I would give up Alcantara instead of Morel with the guys you mentioned and it would still be an overpay. But one I would do, and probably what would be needed because I do agree with you that in order to deal minor league talent for major league talent they will have to overpay to be the best deal. Obviously we know none of this will happen. Just nice to have a baseball chat once in a while. Man, something does need to happen soon!!!!

I would quibble with the description of Moncada as a "negative value player." His production has vacillated significantly over the last 5-6 seasons, but he's never been a negative fWAR guy. Even the last couple years, which have been clear disappointments, would put him in the Wisdom / Madrigal tier of player, which is below-average but above-replacement.

If he has negative overall value, it is 100% due to his contract. And that's just because the contract is so heavily backloaded.

That said, I'd have some interest in Moncada in the right deal. While he's probably no better than our current options, he does certainly possess a ceiling that neither one of them can come close to. Think of it like Bellinger last offseason -- there's always a chance these reclamation projects work out. The tools are all there -- it's just trying to find a way to reliably access them. If the front office thinks they see something they can fix, Moncada could be a very interesting target.

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, Rob said:

I would quibble with the description of Moncada as a "negative value player." His production has vacillated significantly over the last 5-6 seasons, but he's never been a negative fWAR guy. Even the last couple years, which have been clear disappointments, would put him in the Wisdom / Madrigal tier of player, which is below-average but above-replacement.

If he has negative overall value, it is 100% due to his contract. And that's just because the contract is so heavily backloaded.

That said, I'd have some interest in Moncada in the right deal. While he's probably no better than our current options, he does certainly possess a ceiling that neither one of them can come close to. Think of it like Bellinger last offseason -- there's always a chance these reclamation projects work out. The tools are all there -- it's just trying to find a way to reliably access them. If the front office thinks they see something they can fix, Moncada could be a very interesting target.

In the 7 years Moncada has been in the league he has had one really good year. He had one other year that he would probably be worth his contract. But 4 years where his offense was under league average and another he was 3% above league average. He is nothing special.
His production doesn’t merit his pay so he is a negative value.  I think the Sox wouldn’t mind shedding his salary.

I certainly wouldn’t give anything of any value to the Sox for him in a straight deal to get Moncada. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Rcal10

[LBiittner]

37 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

In the 7 years Moncada has been in the league he has had one really good year. He had one other year that he would probably be worth his contract. But 4 years where his offense was under league average and another he was 3% above league average. He is nothing special.
His production doesn’t merit his pay so he is a negative value.  I think the Sox wouldn’t mind shedding his salary.

I certainly wouldn’t give anything of any value to the Sox for him in a straight deal to get Moncada. 

Ooooh man he makes 24m in 2024 and 25m in 2025 with a 5m buyout. Yikes, I wouldn't go near that deal unless whitesox picked up a third each year, which ain't happening

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Taking Moncada back isn’t adding offense. It is adding a negative value player and a contract he isn’t worth. I would give up Alcantara instead of Morel with the guys you mentioned and it would still be an overpay. But one I would do, and probably what would be needed because I do agree with you that in order to deal minor league talent for major league talent they will have to overpay to be the best deal. Obviously we know none of this will happen. Just nice to have a baseball chat once in a while. Man, something does need to happen soon!!!!

I don't think Alcantra gets it done.  The WS know that have a very valuable asset and someone is going to give them what they want for him.  As for Moncada, I do think he has a chance to be a bounce back candidate and he adds a switch hitter.  His contract is bad, but without including him you would probably have to send PCA/Morel plus something Wicks and 2-3 more lesser prospects.

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I don't think Alcantra gets it done.  The WS know that have a very valuable asset and someone is going to give them what they want for him.  As for Moncada, I do think he has a chance to be a bounce back candidate and he adds a switch hitter.  His contract is bad, but without including him you would probably have to send PCA/Morel plus something Wicks and 2-3 more lesser prospects.

Are you saying PCA AND Morel and than something else? Or PCA or Morel? If it is the former IMO you are overvaluing Cease by a wide margin. I wouldn’t trade PCA for Cease. The guy is a 5 or 6 inning pitcher who throws 100 pitches in those innings. Maybe instead of Triantos or Wesneski I would give Wicks. So Alcantara, Wicks and either Triantos or Wesneski. If that isn’t good enough I don’t want Cease. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Rcal10

[Rob]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

In the 7 years Moncada has been in the league he has had one really good year. He had one other year that he would probably be worth his contract. But 4 years where his offense was under league average and another he was 3% above league average. He is nothing special.
His production doesn’t merit his pay so he is a negative value.  I think the Sox wouldn’t mind shedding his salary.

I certainly wouldn’t give anything of any value to the Sox for him in a straight deal to get Moncada. 

In 2019, Moncada put up 5.5 fWAR. In the COVID-shortened 2020, he played at a ~ 3.0 fWAR pace. In 2021, he put up another 4.0 fWAR. For those three years, he looked like a potential franchise cornerstone.

2022, he dealt with injuries, his walk rate slipped, and his BABIP was roughly 80 points below his career norm. The injuries were clearly impacting him.

Last year, he put up 1.2 fWAR in a little more than half a season's worth of action, despite his walk rate dropping to the lowest of his career (outside of a cup of coffee in 2016).

I want to be clear -- in no way do I think Moncada is likely to be worth the contract he's got for next year. But being willing to take on his contract would lower the prospect cost for a guy like Cease. Since we've supposedly got a fair amount of money to spend, but the problem is not having targets to spend it on, using cash to lower the prospect cost of Cease and simultaneous make a mild upgrade at 3B seems potentially worthwhile. [Meanwhile, there is a slim but non-zero chance that Moncada rediscovers his form and is actually worth the contract].

He's not a standalone deal, but I'd be interested in the Cease + Moncada package.

[chopsx9]

21 hours ago, Bull said:

You hope the cubs don’t win the WS for the next 10 years?

Hey it was 108 years last time.   I can do 11 standing on my head.

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, Rob said:

In 2019, Moncada put up 5.5 fWAR. In the COVID-shortened 2020, he played at a ~ 3.0 fWAR pace. In 2021, he put up another 4.0 fWAR. For those three years, he looked like a potential franchise cornerstone.

2022, he dealt with injuries, his walk rate slipped, and his BABIP was roughly 80 points below his career norm. The injuries were clearly impacting him.

Last year, he put up 1.2 fWAR in a little more than half a season's worth of action, despite his walk rate dropping to the lowest of his career (outside of a cup of coffee in 2016).

I want to be clear -- in no way do I think Moncada is likely to be worth the contract he's got for next year. But being willing to take on his contract would lower the prospect cost for a guy like Cease. Since we've supposedly got a fair amount of money to spend, but the problem is not having targets to spend it on, using cash to lower the prospect cost of Cease and simultaneous make a mild upgrade at 3B seems potentially worthwhile. [Meanwhile, there is a slim but non-zero chance that Moncada rediscovers his form and is actually worth the contract].

He's not a standalone deal, but I'd be interested in the Cease + Moncada package.

I just think if you are taking Moncada and his contract, with Cease there is no reason to have to put Morel in the deal. I also do not think Moncada is any good, TBH. I see him as average, at best, offensively. And definitely not worth his contract. I also am not as high in Cease as some are. I think that had he not been traded from the Cubs to the Sox people wouldn’t be as interested in getting him back. Sure, he throws hard. Cubs don’t really have that sort of guy. But he walks a lot of guys and usually it around his pitch limit in the 6th inning. He is good, but not worth what some are suggesting IMO. I mean if you look at pure numbers he isn’t even better than Bieber, and we are talking about getting him for Wesneski. So why pay so much for Cease for one additional year. Look at his WHIP last year. That was not good. Even his career number isn’t good. I am not interested in overpaying for him just to right a perceived wrong(by the Cubs fan base).