Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

38 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Right. The point I'm not making is what I'd like to see, but going back to my original comment of why people are concerned with his ability to play CF long term and his batted ball data. People have concerns about fit, about Bellinger and the like. It isn't to say these will happen, only that those fears/worries aren't unwarrented. As you said, no contract is without risk. I think people are just pointing out the risk. 

On Bieber, the Cubs can still get Naylor without Bieber, so I'm not super worried even if he goes to LAD. They can still grab Imanaga, Snell, Montgomery...etc. I like him as a bit of a bounceback, But I'm not so desperate for him that I'd be too bummed to see him head elsewhere. With that said, it is just another option off the board that the Cubs let go. At some point the Cubs do need to get someone in.

Yes, they can’t keep letting options go and then say “oh well” we will pivot to another option. That is why this idea of seeing who falls to them sucks for a team with their revenues. Sometimes you have to have a concrete plan and make it happen. 

[Backtobanks]

I wonder why people are worried about Bellinger offensively and yet think nothing of giving a totally unproven PCA the CF job.  Bellinger has a proven ML track record of solid offensive production (except for the injury years).  My worry is that PCA struggles and will lose all of his peak trade value.  If we can get someone like Luzardo for PCA+, I think it's a no brainer.

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

37 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I wonder why people are worried about Bellinger offensively and yet think nothing of giving a totally unproven PCA the CF job.  Bellinger has a proven ML track record of solid offensive production (except for the injury years).  My worry is that PCA struggles and will lose all of his peak trade value.  If we can get someone like Luzardo for PCA+, I think it's a no brainer.

 

Because one wants 200 million horsefeathers dollars and hasn't had a 5 win season since before COVID 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Because one wants 200 million horsefeathers dollars and hasn't had a 5 win season since before COVID 

If that $200M is for 8 years he doesn’t need to produce a 5WAR to be worth that annual salary. More like a 3WAR, which he can do. Besides that, just because he wants $200M doesn’t mean he gets that. I can see something like 7/$182 being a good middle ground between what the Cubs probably hope they could get him at (6/$150) and what Boros would realistically want (8/$216).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I suspect if there was a team ready and willing to give Bellinger 200 million, especially straight without any option machinations, he’d be signed by now.  At this point I’d say there’s better odds of him taking Correa’s short term deal than it is he gets a 180+ million guarantee.

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I suspect if there was a team ready and willing to give Bellinger 200 million, especially straight without any option machinations, he’d be signed by now.  At this point I’d say there’s better odds of him taking Correa’s short term deal than it is he gets a 180+ million guarantee.

I don’t think he will get $200M. And I agree with you that if someone had that out there now he would have signed already. But we have to remember that he is a Boros client. So this delay isn’t unusual. I still think he ends up getting at least a 6 year deal and at least at $25M a year. Big difference between 6/$150 and 8/$210 or so. So it isn’t surprising he is still out there. But I think a team will find middle ground. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

Quote

Imanaga doesn’t have the ceiling that Yamamoto possesses, but he’s generally viewed as a likely mid-rotation starter. As with Yamamoto, Imanaga is available via the posting system. The Yokohama BayStars formally posted him on November 27. That opened a 45-day window for the southpaw to sign with a major league club. He’ll land with an MLB team by January 11 at the latest. Speier reports that Imanaga will travel to the U.S. shortly after the New Year to meet with interested teams. The Giants, Cubs and Yankees are among the others linked to Imanaga within the past month.

 

[ToolDRT]

30 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

I feel like one of the teams that lost out on Yamamoto (giants maybe) are gonna overpay for Imanaga. With the way we want to avoid bidding wars of late I doubt we’re super involved here. 

[Layoutman]

4 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

I wonder why people are worried about Bellinger offensively and yet think nothing of giving a totally unproven PCA the CF job.  Bellinger has a proven ML track record of solid offensive production (except for the injury years).  My worry is that PCA struggles and will lose all of his peak trade value.  If we can get someone like Luzardo for PCA+, I think it's a no brainer.

 

Jed doesn't move prospects to upgrade the roster outside of the trade deadline so PCA's trade value is a moot point.

[Tim]

7 minutes ago, Layoutman said:

Jed doesn't move prospects to upgrade the roster outside of the trade deadline so PCA's trade value is a moot point.

I believe you've made this point several times recently (if I'm remembering incorrectly, I apologize). Do you really think how Jed treated prospects while he was rebuilding the roster is going to be predictive of how he treats them whenever he believes we have entered a competitive position?

I don't think we have any idea how he'll run a team when he thinks they have "arrived". 

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I suspect if there was a team ready and willing to give Bellinger 200 million, especially straight without any option machinations, he’d be signed by now.  At this point I’d say there’s better odds of him taking Correa’s short term deal than it is he gets a 180+ million guarantee.

I also suspect that if he could be had for 150 then he would probably have more interested suitors, right?

 

We've seen Bellinger's floor, and I don't think he's gonna go that low again, but if he hit like Swanson did last year he isn't even a 3 win player.  The floor just isn't there to take that kind of gamble is the way I'm leaning.

 

[Layoutman]

16 minutes ago, Tim said:

I believe you've made this point several times recently (if I'm remembering incorrectly, I apologize). Do you really think how Jed treated prospects while he was rebuilding the roster is going to be predictive of how he treats them whenever he believes we have entered a competitive position?

I don't think we have any idea how he'll run a team when he thinks they have "arrived". 

Yes, you are correct. Jed doesn't have a past history of utilizing prospects to enhance the roster during the off season.   

Competitive Position? We compete in the NL central. We were in spring ball.  

Jed's on the clock now. It's time to horsefeathers or get off the pot.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I also suspect that if he could be had for 150 then he would probably have more interested suitors, right?

Several weeks ago, probably.  But since then potential Bellinger suitors have filled holes with Lee, Garver, and Kiermaier, while some may prefer fellow Boras client Chapman at this point, so the appetite to do so in January is far less certain.  Hence the likelihood that he ends up stuck with a Correa deal, possibly because Boras overplayed his hand.  Or maybe he signs with the tigers for 8/220 or something in the next few days.  It only takes one, but the pool to find that one is shrinking.

[CubinNY]

Bellinger may have priced himself out the market. Boars does this a lot with players. it's not always in their best interest. I agree with whoever said he might take another short-term deal, but he isn't getting any younger either. 

[Bertz]

A cool thing I was just thinking about with a Bellinger/Hoskins combo is that you can sort of platoon Tauchman/Madrigal depending on whether you want to prioritize IF defense or OF defense.

For example, if Justin Steele is pitching you absolutely cannot run Morel out at 3B.  But you could do Madrigal at 3rd, Morel at DH, Bellinger at CF, Hoskins at 1st.  Conversely with like Taillon on the mound you could do Morel at 3rd, Bellinger at 1st, Hoskins DHing, and Tauchman in CF.  If you start feeling more comfortable with Morel at 3rd or when PCA is ready you can shift to more of a set everyday lineup.

I've been vocally anti-Bellinger from the start of the offseason, but the story is way different on a short term deal.  He's always been a perfect fit for the 2024 club, but it's a matter of how long I want to pay him for that privilege.

[Rcal10]

I would be fine with signing Bellinger and Hoskins to start the process of making the 24’ Cubs a playoff team. I am not as concerned as some about signing Bellinger for up to 7 years and Hoskins to a 1 year deal. From there I would like to see a few smaller size trades. One for Bieber and another for Polanco. Let Polanco and Morel figure out who is better at 3rd and the other is then the DH. Since Bieber, Polanco and Hoskins are on one year deals plus all the other money coming off the books after the 24 season, I would like to see them go over the LT threshold next year. Maybe sign a Giolitto and a decent pen arm. The following year guys like PCA, Horton, maybe Shaw, Cassie, Brown will be ready to fill in for guys lost. And they can be back under the LT threshold again. Trading for Bieber and Polanco won’t hit your minor league system that hard. Might even get those guys for guys like Wesneski, Assad, Wisdom, Mervis,Madrigal plus a lower end prospect. I don’t think they would have to lose a top 10 system prospect. 

IMO that is a 90+ win team. You have a solid line up, a decent staff with depth and you still have a lot of your minor league talent if you have to make moves at the deadline. 

There really is no good reason they can’t do this. But I just don’t think they will, unfortunately. 

[Bertz]

Great read, as most pieces he doesn't co-write with Mooney are.  This stood out though

Quote

While no team would ever say it has enough pitching — the Cubs certainly need a boost at the front of the rotation and in the bullpen — the depth this team has built may allow it to make some trades. Two names seem to be emerging most frequently in trade discussions, pitchers who aren’t near-untouchable like top pitching prospect Cade Horton: Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown.

 

Quote

There are position players who are asked about often in trade discussions. But the bet here is that one, if not both of Wesneski and Brown, are moved in a deal to add major-league talent before the 2024 season begins.

 

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Great read, as most pieces he doesn't co-write with Mooney are.  This stood out though

 

 

I'd be curious as to what trade he could be alluding to, here. I feel like Cleveland would prefer hitters over arms in a Bieber trade, so I wonder what they're looking at, and how close something is to getting done. It almost sounded like he suggested a trade for a hitter with the way he worded how every team needs pitching but the Cubs can deal from that stockpile. 

[Illiterate Scholar]

Something like a short-term high AAV Bellinger deal, Hoskins, and trading for Bieber puts the payroll around 250 million. And that's before adding to the bullpen and another starter, though maybe Jed is fine with Wicks/Assad battling for the 5 spot. I'd understand any skepticism, but I could see Tom being OK with a 260-265 with that much tied up in short term deals.

[LBiittner]

59 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would be fine with signing Bellinger and Hoskins to start the process of making the 24’ Cubs a playoff team. I am not as concerned as some about signing Bellinger for up to 7 years and Hoskins to a 1 year deal. From there I would like to see a few smaller size trades. One for Bieber and another for Polanco. Let Polanco and Morel figure out who is better at 3rd and the other is then the DH. Since Bieber, Polanco and Hoskins are on one year deals plus all the other money coming off the books after the 24 season, I would like to see them go over the LT threshold next year. Maybe sign a Giolitto and a decent pen arm. The following year guys like PCA, Horton, maybe Shaw, Cassie, Brown will be ready to fill in for guys lost. And they can be back under the LT threshold again. Trading for Bieber and Polanco won’t hit your minor league system that hard. Might even get those guys for guys like Wesneski, Assad, Wisdom, Mervis,Madrigal plus a lower end prospect. I don’t think they would have to lose a top 10 system prospect. 

IMO that is a 90+ win team. You have a solid line up, a decent staff with depth and you still have a lot of your minor league talent if you have to make moves at the deadline. 

There really is no good reason they can’t do this. But I just don’t think they will, unfortunately. 

I'm not sure why you want to trade for Polanco, we already have a second baseman? It's already been mentioned here he was played out of position by the Twins last year at third out of necessity. And he totally sucked at it to Morel levels. 

Why settle for inferior players only because their hand fits a random glove? Albeit badly? 

[chibears55]

12 hours ago, Layoutman said:

Jed doesn't move prospects to upgrade the roster outside of the trade deadline so PCA's trade value is a moot point.

I don't know why everyone is in such a hurry to trade PCA now, he went from being the future to being trade bait in a matter of a couple months because of going hitless in 14 AB.

[thawv]

43 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

Something like a short-term high AAV Bellinger deal, Hoskins, and trading for Bieber puts the payroll around 250 million. And that's before adding to the bullpen and another starter, though maybe Jed is fine with Wicks/Assad battling for the 5 spot. I'd understand any skepticism, but I could see Tom being OK with a 260-265 with that much tied up in short term deals.

He also likes to us a 6 man rotation

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'd be curious as to what trade he could be alluding to, here. I feel like Cleveland would prefer hitters over arms in a Bieber trade, so I wonder what they're looking at, and how close something is to getting done. It almost sounded like he suggested a trade for a hitter with the way he worded how every team needs pitching but the Cubs can deal from that stockpile. 

Alonso maybe?  Overall though I think just about any trade of substance except for a deal for just Bieber probably makes sense to include one of them.  

I think what is interesting about anything you read from Sharma is how casually he assumes Jed is going to make some hay via trade this winter.  Rogers has been similar when he's written and talked about the Cubs.  They've gotta be hearing stuff.

[Illiterate Scholar]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I don't know why everyone is in such a hurry to trade PCA now, he went from being the future to being trade bait in a matter of a couple months because of going hitless in 14 AB.

No, that is not anyone's reasoning.

[chibears55]

3 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

No, that is not anyone's reasoning.

Then what is it ? What changed from August to October that has fans wanting to trade him now ?