Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

32 minutes ago, thawv said:

They were only in on Lee because he's much cheaper.  He's a bargain, and Belli is not.  If they can get Belli for 6/113 it would have been done.  It's only about the money.

True.  And I support that philosophy as long as the total payroll spending is an acceptably high amount.

Point of my post is that if they were in on Lee then they're at least considering signing a FA to fill CF rather than for sure going with PCA/Tauchman/Canario in 2024.

Seems like they want to add at least 1 LHB to the lineup.  Happ is the only regular who can hit LH right now.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Stratos

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

True.  And I support that philosophy as long as the total payroll spending is an acceptably high amount.

Point of my post is that if they were in on Lee then they're at least considering signing a FA to fill CF rather than for sure going with PCA/Tauchman/Canario in 2024.

Seems like they want to add at least 1 LHB to the lineup.  Happ is the only regular who can hit LH right now.

Cubs seem to be in on everyone until the first team makes an offer to pass what they would offer.

Have they actually met with a FA yet ?

[thawv]

15 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Especially for 7 years. I can see something like $156/6 years or $135/5. I wouldn’t want the Cubs to do that, but I think someone will.

5/135 is the exact number that I wrote down for Snell.  And I think that's a risky move.  

[thawv]

11 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Valdez /

PCA. Wicks. Brown. Triantos. Canaro 

 

 

I think that it would take PCA on his own, or any 2 of the following.  Horton, Caissie, Shaw, Alcantara, or Brown.   I would trade PCA before moving Horton.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that it would take PCA on his own, or any 2 of the following.  Horton, Caissie, Shaw, Alcantara, or Brown.   I would trade PCA before moving Horton.

I think we cub fans tend to over rate our kiddies. I probably proposed a somewhat over payment. But Framber is a solid ace and the children are lottery picks to have a sustained mlb existence. 

[gflore34]

33 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that it would take PCA on his own, or any 2 of the following.  Horton, Caissie, Shaw, Alcantara, or Brown.   I would trade PCA before moving Horton.

Horton, Cassie and Shaw - hard pass, not available, Alcantara, Brown or Canario have at 'em.

[thawv]

17 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Horton, Cassie and Shaw - hard pass, not available, Alcantara, Brown or Canario have at 'em.

But it would take 2 of those 5 players mentioned.  I would also move on from trading Horton.  Alcantara and Brown and I'd be elated. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, LBiittner said:

I think we cub fans tend to over rate our kiddies. I probably proposed a somewhat over payment. But Framber is a solid ace and the children are lottery picks to have a sustained mlb existence. 

Probably true. But I also think some people suggest trading them away as if they have no value. I think a lot of people look at BBTV to see values on guys and try putting trades together that way. It is not a perfect valuation, and sometimes it may appear way off, but it is a decent guide. Using the haul you suggested for Valdez would have the Cubs paying way over the value per BBTV. 

[LBiittner]

27 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Probably true. But I also think some people suggest trading them away as if they have no value. I think a lot of people look at BBTV to see values on guys and try putting trades together that way. It is not a perfect valuation, and sometimes it may appear way off, but it is a decent guide. Using the haul you suggested for Valdez would have the Cubs paying way over the value per BBTV. 

Houston has probably the worst minor league group in all of mlb.

Taking Valdez from their rotation would probably require Wicks as part of the return. And probably Brown too as a mid-season addition to their staff. 

PCA would land into their outfield mix.

Triantos Could factor in at first once Abreu hangs them up.

Canaro is additional bait to seal the deal

[Ding Dong Johnson]

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

I think we cub fans tend to over rate our kiddies. I probably proposed a somewhat over payment. But Framber is a solid ace and the children are lottery picks to have a sustained mlb existence. 

I think every fan base is off on their ratings of every player. PCA alone might be too much for only Framber. He's a 3-4 win pitcher on the wrong side of 30.

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

I think every fan base is off on their ratings of every player. PCA alone might be too muc7h for only Framber. He's a 3-4 win pitcher on the wrong side of 30.

$$$ wise he's cheap. Right up Jeds'

How many 4 win starters do the Cubs currently have?

I'd prefer him over bieber.

Edited December 20, 2023 by LBiittner

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Prospects of PCA and Horton's caliber(going off their consensus rankings in Top 100s) just don't really get traded anymore.  They have too much value in terms of potential upside and cheaper team control, and teams are less and less willing to trade pre-arb or even early arb talents in return.  When they do happen, it's for players who also have lots of years of team control along with good performance(e.g. the Varsho/Moreno trade last year), not very good players with only 1-2 years to FA that are closer to market prices and post-prime performance.  Valdez is an excellent pitcher and a good trade target, I would give up prospects that I probably wouldn't in other rumored deals to get him(Shaw and Alcantara come to mind).  But he is not a 'trade half your top 5 including a Top ~25 prospect' player, partially due to his qualities but mostly because those trades just don't really exist in the 2020s.

[LBiittner]

TT you make way too much sense. I'm probably over reacting, but looking at our current rotation I see a whole lot of on a wing and a prayer ingredients. 

[Tryptamine]

I think he's a great target, but there are causes for concern too, which would probably be the only reason the Astros would be making him available in the first place. His GB% was the lowest it has ever been in the majors in 2023(54.2%) coming off 66.5% the previous year and 70.3% the year before that. His LD% is up and his FB% is way up from 2022. His HARD% is up over 7% and his SOFT% is down roughly 5%. Strangely, his fastball velocity was actually up in 2023(95.3) from 94.0 in 2022. It makes me wonder if the extra velocity is coming at the cost of movement and that's letting people square him up more often. It's kind of like how Carlos Zambrano could reach back for 98 when he wanted it, but when he was at his best he was sitting around 94 with significantly more downward movement on his pitches.

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I think he's a great target, but there are causes for concern too, which would probably be the only reason the Astros would be making him available in the first place. His GB% was the lowest it has ever been in the majors in 2023(54.2%) coming off 66.5% the previous year and 70.3% the year before that. His LD% is up and his FB% is way up from 2022. His HARD% is up over 7% and his SOFT% is down roughly 5%. Strangely, his fastball velocity was actually up in 2023(95.3) from 94.0 in 2022. It makes me wonder if the extra velocity is coming at the cost of movement and that's letting people square him up more often. It's kind of like how Carlos Zambrano could reach back for 98 when he wanted it, but when he was at his best he was sitting around 94 with significantly more downward movement on his pitches.

Great evaluation. Thanks.

Cubs have to give up an immediate starter in this proposed deal, who else do you think they'd require?

[We Got The Whole 9]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

TT you make way too much sense. I'm probably over reacting, but looking at our current rotation I see a whole lot of on a wing and a prayer ingredients. 

That doesn't mean you trade half of the top 10 for Framber Valdez. 

[LBiittner]

41 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

That doesn't mean you trade half of the top 10 for Framber Valdez. 

They all have warts lol haha

[LBiittner]

Great news we got another catcher as a 4th catcher depth.

I forgot his name whoops but he's only 32

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I think he's a great target, but there are causes for concern too, which would probably be the only reason the Astros would be making him available in the first place. His GB% was the lowest it has ever been in the majors in 2023(54.2%) coming off 66.5% the previous year and 70.3% the year before that. His LD% is up and his FB% is way up from 2022. His HARD% is up over 7% and his SOFT% is down roughly 5%. Strangely, his fastball velocity was actually up in 2023(95.3) from 94.0 in 2022. It makes me wonder if the extra velocity is coming at the cost of movement and that's letting people square him up more often. It's kind of like how Carlos Zambrano could reach back for 98 when he wanted it, but when he was at his best he was sitting around 94 with significantly 

 

[ToolDRT]

 

[Rob]

20 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

 

If it's not us, I'm just glad it's not the Cardinals. He struck me as a guy who could have been a thorn in our side for quite some time.

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Probably true. But I also think some people suggest trading them away as if they have no value. I think a lot of people look at BBTV to see values on guys and try putting trades together that way. It is not a perfect valuation, and sometimes it may appear way off, but it is a decent guide. Using the haul you suggested for Valdez would have the Cubs paying way over the value per BBTV. 

The key is trading them for a significant player before they lose their trade value.  The Cubs seem to be good at waiting too long and then the prospect is worthless.  I think PCA could be a perfect example of that.  If he struggles his value goes from the highest on the team to a throw in on a minor deal.  Sign Bellinger and trade PCA for a young, controlled SP.. 

[Bertz]

It's wild that the position player market still isn't moving.  Like I expected pitchers to largely wait for Yamamoto, but I figured we'd be seeing some major movement with the Hoskins and Garvers of the world by now.  But as far as I can tell Candelario and Gurriel are the only guys to sign since Ohtani?

[Stratos]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's wild that the position player market still isn't moving.  Like I expected pitchers to largely wait for Yamamoto, but I figured we'd be seeing some major movement with the Hoskins and Garvers of the world by now.  But as far as I can tell Candelario and Gurriel are the only guys to sign since Ohtani?

Hoskins is a Boras guy, like Chapman and Bellinger, as is Snell.  Maybe some others too I'm missing.

[champaignchris]

So, the Brewers just sent Houser and Taylor to the Mets for a 23-year-old AA pitcher coming off TJS. 

The division is. Just, Right. There. 

Four players - Chapman, Hoskins, Imanega and Hader - or pick your combination of four. I don’t care. But that’s all it takes to get this team in the playoffs. 

Do it, Jed!

[I owned a Suzuki]

2 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

The key is trading them for a significant player before they lose their trade value.  The Cubs seem to be good at waiting too long and then the prospect is worthless.  I think PCA could be a perfect example of that.  If he struggles his value goes from the highest on the team to a throw in on a minor deal.  Sign Bellinger and trade PCA for a young, controlled SP.. 

Or he could be a very good MLB player for years and Bellinger's hard hit rate is a real thing and he becomes Erik Hosmer at 1b in 2 years making 28 mill a season.  I think this is every bit as possible, especially since PCA at minimum is a extremely valuable defensive CF.