Cubs offseason chit chat...

[thawv]

On 11/14/2023 at 7:55 PM, Dfan25 said:

Surprised they protected 3 guys and the 40 man is full now . Maybe they plan to non tender some guys , but I doubt it , or they don’t plan to make a move for a while . I think it’s too early for a big trade , but you never know .

I think that they non tender 4 guys.

[Bull]

On 11/12/2023 at 9:07 AM, thawv said:

I'd go something like 1/11 for Candy.

And no agent would ever talk to you again.

[Jason Ross]

Rogers posted an article today on a few things, and I think it's worth it to take note of a few things from a source :

1. The Cubs seem fairly confident that had the DH been in the NL in 2017 they would have won Ohtani

2. There seems to be a strange air of confidence coming from the Cubs on their current pursuit of Ohtani. Not that Rogers said that, just from the way it's written. Ohtani camp seemingly wants this quiet, so we'll have to read between the lines. Not saying I'm betting on a win here, just...odd?

3. Morel-for-Alonso tidbit dropped as something that could happen 

4. Cody Bellinger does not appear to be coming back. Rogers states that the Cubs won't get into bidding wars for FAs (outside of Ohtani) and that one rival GM said "He's as good as gone".

[gocubs218]

And Imanaga has already been in Chicago. Not sure if that’s on a recruiting visit or what but he’s pretty intriguing, 

[Bertz]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38905458/shohei-ohtani-free-agent-chicago-cubs-cody-bellinger

In addition to the above a few other things:

- They will get into the mix for Corbin Burnes if they think Milwaukee will dance

- Jeimer Candelario is gone, but also Nick Madrigal "probably isn't the everyday option there moving forward."  Not sure if that's just saying it'll be a timeshare or if it means 3B is definitely on the shopping list for the winter

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

And Imanaga has already been in Chicago. Not sure if that’s on a recruiting visit or what but he’s pretty intriguing, 

Did Imanaga make it to Chicago? I know Koji Uehara posted online he was in Chicago but hadn't seen Imanaga had made his way to the city.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38905458/shohei-ohtani-free-agent-chicago-cubs-cody-bellinger

In addition to the above a few other things:

- They will get into the mix for Corbin Burnes if they think Milwaukee will dance

- Jeimer Candelario is gone, but also Nick Madrigal "probably isn't the everyday option there moving forward."  Not sure if that's just saying it'll be a timeshare or if it means 3B is definitely on the shopping list for the winter

This offseason is going to be nuts.

[Tryptamine]

Alonso for Morel would not make me very happy. Soto sure, Alonso, big nope.

[gocubs218]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Did Imanaga make it to Chicago? I know Koji Uehara posted online he was in Chicago but hadn't seen Imanaga had made his way to the city.

Quote

The Cubs are also in on Japanese pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga -- the latter has already spent time in Chicago -- according to sources familiar with the situation.

That’s what I got from this.

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Alonso for Morel would not make me very happy. Soto sure, Alonso, big nope.

I'd be fine with Morel for Alonso as long as they filled DH with Ohtani or Soto. Once they fill the DH spot, Morel is surplus to requirements. I struggle to see the Cubs using him at 1b, regardless of what positional flexibility they're giving him. So they might as well turn him into something they'll use.

On it's own it's a bit weird. Coupled with other moves it makes sense.

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

That’s what I got from this.

Interesting! I missed that one. Good to see he was in Chicago a bit.

[CubinNY]

If the Cubs land Ohtani Tom may actually burst into flames. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Just now, CubinNY said:

If the Cubs land Ohtani Tom may actually burst into flames. 

Dear Santa,

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Genuinely curious what the plan is for 3B.  We haven't heard any rumblings of being connected with Chapman, which were it not for the QO I might think was a bit underrated in it's likelihood(maybe if Soto is the big bat and it depresses Chapman's market?).  If Madrigal isn't viewed as the primary option, does that simply mean he's gonna be in a timeshare with someone like he was with Wisdom/Mastro?  If Candelario isn't the guy, then there aren't a lot of obvious options.  Maybe an expanded deal with the Marlins includes Jon Berti?  Maybe they're willing to gamble some real money on Moncada's health compared to other multi-year FA bat options?

[JD94]

I’m starting to get excited for this offseason. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Genuinely curious what the plan is for 3B.  We haven't heard any rumblings of being connected with Chapman, which were it not for the QO I might think was a bit underrated in it's likelihood(maybe if Soto is the big bat and it depresses Chapman's market?).  If Madrigal isn't viewed as the primary option, does that simply mean he's gonna be in a timeshare with someone like he was with Wisdom/Mastro?  If Candelario isn't the guy, then there aren't a lot of obvious options.  Maybe an expanded deal with the Marlins includes Jon Berti?  Maybe they're willing to gamble some real money on Moncada's health compared to other multi-year FA bat options?

I've thought that the Cubs would keep a Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastrobuni rotation at 3b, with Madrigal getting more PA's than the others for a bit. Wisdom would get curated PA's in situations that suit him (more like what we saw from him in the 2nd half. Where I think he can be more useful at the plate) and Mastro will get a bit of run too. At least until the Cubs either have a prospect who's ready to take over or the Cubs address the position at the deadline.

Chapman is an interesting case. Batted ball data like barrel%, hard hit%. chase rate, exit velo...all ranked very high. His BABIP was a career high by a pretty decent margin, and his ISO was a career low. He hit a ton of doubles and his HR total fell off. He had a monster April and a Monster July but was basically worthless the rest of the year. I can't tell if I think he's unlucky to have so many doubles, if the power is just dipping a bit turning the HR's into doubles, if his batted ball data is the way to look at it, or to look at how ineffective he was for four months. Glad I don't have to decide on him and that it is someone else's job.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Maybe not the main offensive piece with Cleveland potentially needing to slash payroll doesn’t Jose Ramirez seem like a possibility? 

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Cubs Fan Dan said:

Maybe not the main offensive piece with Cleveland potentially needing to slash payroll doesn’t Jose Ramirez seem like a possibility? 

Jose Ramirez could and would be a main piece for almost anyone. The issue is that Jose Ramirez's trade value is magnitudes higher than anyone else we're talking about here. Like, that Trade Value site has a fair trade as Ramirez for Morel + PCA + Horton

[Cubs Fan Dan]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Jose Ramirez could and would be a main piece for almost anyone. The issue is that Jose Ramirez's trade value is magnitudes higher than anyone else we're talking about here. Like, that Trade Value site has a fair trade as Ramirez for Morel + PCA + Horton

True, didn’t realize how much of a steal his contract is at less than 30 mil a season.

[JD94]

We could always take a shot on Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada. I feel like the consensus is Matt Shaw will be ready sooner rather than later. Obviously you don’t bank on that, but you do keep it in the back of your mind that maybe if you can tread water at 3B for a little while until Shaw is ready and you see if he’s the guy or not. 

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The catch with Shaw and 3B is his own college coach called him more or less a terrible 3B defender who seemed completely uncomfortable at the position. I wouldn’t bet on Shaw both flying up *and* securing 3B anytime soon 

I do think they can tread water at the position like last year, even do well if they’re clever about it again 

I guess if the bat is good enough, you could always move Hoerner over there. I have no doubt he can play well over there (I just watched Madrigal play well defensively there). I’m sure that’s not ideal, but those things always seem to work themselves out. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The catch with Shaw and 3B is his own college coach called him more or less a terrible 3B defender who seemed completely uncomfortable at the position. I wouldn’t bet on Shaw both flying up *and* securing 3B anytime soon 

Do you have that mention handy?  A little surprised that would be the takeaway considering his college coach left him at SS of all places.

But to the broader point, I mentioned it elsewhere but you can't do any roster planning assuming anything more than zero from Shaw in 2024.  He only had 15 AA games and has been swing happy there, there's likely multiple rounds of adjustments before he's ready to take on a primary role, and the optimistic version of that timeline is more of a September call up.

[Bertz]

My assumption on 3B is they would love to make an upgrade, but with how terrible the market is there it's unlikely to happen.  Maybe an opportunity comes up to e.g. expand a Morel -> Seattle trade to bring Josh Rojas back this way or something like that, but ultimately I think it'll be a "nothing ever really aligned" deal and we roll internally.  It's not the best, but between Madrigal, Wisdom, Mastro, Murray, Vazquez, and Shaw they'll figure something out.  Plus next year's FA market is actually pretty strong at 3rd so there's likely to be opportunity at the TDL to address it.

It kind of sucks, taking the volume approach to a position is a good way to rack up some negative WAR the first 2-3 months of the season, but if Jed addresses 1B/DH/SP properly it shouldn't matter too much.

[ToolDRT]

I’ve conditioned myself that we’re not getting Ohtani already. So if it does happen it’ll be a huge boost.
 

My worry is (with the suggested interest he has in Atlanta and spending his career on LAA teams that won nothing) he’s going to want to enter a situation and team that is already clearly in the World Series discussion. Dodgers, braves, rangers. I think the cubs and giants are gonna come out swinging but I really have a gut feeling one of those above organizations gets it done. 

[squally1313]

46 minutes ago, Bertz said:

My assumption on 3B is they would love to make an upgrade, but with how terrible the market is there it's unlikely to happen.  Maybe an opportunity comes up to e.g. expand a Morel -> Seattle trade to bring Josh Rojas back this way or something like that, but ultimately I think it'll be a "nothing ever really aligned" deal and we roll internally.  It's not the best, but between Madrigal, Wisdom, Mastro, Murray, Vazquez, and Shaw they'll figure something out.  Plus next year's FA market is actually pretty strong at 3rd so there's likely to be opportunity at the TDL to address it.

It kind of sucks, taking the volume approach to a position is a good way to rack up some negative WAR the first 2-3 months of the season, but if Jed addresses 1B/DH/SP properly it shouldn't matter too much.

Yeah, most teams rely on third base to make up for offensive shortcomings elsewhere (namely second and short). We don't have those shortcomings, but we do have a budget crunch and a handful of cheap dudes who can be mediocre there. If it's truly the missing piece come July, then Horton and PCA can go get us Ramirez