Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Tryptamine]

26 minutes ago, Stratos said:

He'd probably get 5 or 6 years max, so maybe like 115/5, plus next season, so he'd be signed through age 34 which is isn't bad at all.  He's been very durable.  We'd get about 4 out of the 6 total years still around his prime years.

The FA market was nuts with the years and payroll last year so it will be interesting to see if that continues this year.

I still like Mervis, it would be fun to see how he does with more PA's.

Scott Boras is on record wanting a deal similar to or exceeding Freddie Freeman. Freeman got 6/162.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Justin Turner played 57 innings last year at 3b and hasn't played more than 550 innings in two years.  Justin Turner will be 39 on Opening Day. Craig Counsell coached Milwaukee teams have placed a high premium on defense. Yes the Red Sox had Devers at 3b, but Turner isn't really a likely candidate for any team at 3b, less so the Cubs. I'm pretty confident in saying the Cubs would be interested in him at 1b or DH and not 3b.

As a RHB option at 1B it's not the worst idea, as a back up/platoon for Mervis.  A year older at 39 he might end up not being much of an upgrade over Wisdom though, if we assume Turner regresses at least a bit from last year.  The Cubs seem to put a lot of emphasis on acquiring position guys still in their prime years, age 32 and under, he doesn't seem like their type.

Fangraphs has Candelario projected for 1.8 WAR and 103 wRC+ next year per Steamer,  That seems a bit low, but it's probably because of the bad year he had last year.  I wonder if Candelario could be had on a 3 year deal.  I wouldn't do 4 on him, especially with Matt Shaw in the wings.  Candelario could always be traded down the line.  If they're interested in giving Mervis and Morel a shot at 1B/3B next year then someone like him who can play both corners would be valuable as backup.  I'd support them investing in a better player than types like Mancini/Villar.

[Cuzi]

35 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Scott Boras is on record wanting a deal similar to or exceeding Freddie Freeman. Freeman got 6/162.

You'll never know what you can get without asking, but outside of an Aaron Judgian level final year, he wont be exceeding Freeman. Freeman was consistently a full WAR better than Alonso leading up to his deal and theres no shot in hell you can sell a team on paying more for Alonso than Freeman now that hes 4-5 WAR better, 3 years removed isnt enough inflation to justify it.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Cuzi said:

You'll never know what you can get without asking, but outside of an Aaron Judgian level final year, he wont be exceeding Freeman. Freeman was consistently a full WAR better than Alonso leading up to his deal and theres no shot in hell you can sell a team on paying more for Alonso than Freeman now that hes 4-5 WAR better, 3 years removed isnt enough inflation to justify it.

Yep, I don’t see that sort of deal for Alonso either. One thing to suggest you want that. Then there is the reality where he just isn’t Freeman. If the Cubs got him and then gave him a 5 year extension I would think he is doing very well at $115 for those 5 years. And, TBH, that might be high. But at least the years are t too bad.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Rcal10

[Dfan25]

FWIW Jesse Rogers was just on ESPN 1000 and said he thinks the Cubs will seriously pursue Ohtani . They seriously want him and they won’t just pursue for show . He also said he thinks their main plan for SP are the Japanese ones .  

[Tryptamine]

58 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

FWIW Jesse Rogers was just on ESPN 1000 and said he thinks the Cubs will seriously pursue Ohtani . They seriously want him and they won’t just pursue for show . He also said he thinks their main plan for SP are the Japanese ones .  

Can you imagine the surge in viewership overseas and new sponsorships for the team if they had Ohtani, Yamamoto and Seiya all on this team? Those increases would help to pay a significant amount of the contracts off.

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It’s fun and funny he had to add that. It feels very telling for where we’re at and what we expect in 2023 going into 2024 from pro sports and pro sports media. “The interest you’ll read about is really real and not manufactured for your entertainment like everything else!” Isn’t that great? Very promising 

I get what you are saying and largely agree, but there is really real and there is what we are willing to pay. Getting Counsell is a big shock to my system and a re-evaluation set point for me. Before I would bet heavily that they are really going to make an offer, but it will be well short of what he actually wants or gets. Now, I don't know. 

[Jason Ross]

I also think there is a strong feeing in Chicago-Cub-land right now that the Cubs aren't serious about pursuing the high end of the free agent pool, like the Shohei Ohtani guys. The entire Soto thread is filled with people who thought the rumors were the Cubs leaking to get good grace with fans. Rogers has been pretty plugged into the Cubs for the last 10+ years, so hearing that really is a good thing.

I still doubt it happens. But it'd be fun to see the Cubs give it a true try.

[Cuzi]

I don't doubt they "seriously want him." The same way 29 other teams "seriously want him." I doubt they will exceed or even come close to matching what the market is willing to offer.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I also think there is a strong feeing in Chicago-Cub-land right now that the Cubs aren't serious about pursuing the high end of the free agent pool, like the Shohei Ohtani guys. The entire Soto thread is filled with people who thought the rumors were the Cubs leaking to get good grace with fans. Rogers has been pretty plugged into the Cubs for the last 10+ years, so hearing that really is a good thing.

I still doubt it happens. But it'd be fun to see the Cubs give it a true try.

When Theo left Rogers became by far the most connected guy in town.  He's always been tight with Hoyer, I remember them having an annual interview Jed would take from the car on his way down to Arizona.  He was the first with Darvish (Hoyer's first big post-Theo move), etc.  So yeah if Rogers says things we should listen closely.

[SOFNR]

I'm not really going to believe the Cubs are serious about the top of the FA market until they actually play in those waters again. But I do think Ohtani might be a different case to the Ricketts. I'm sure they'd love to expand the Cubs brand more internationally.  How much money can they make off the Japanese market if they aquire Ohtani and Yamamoto? I'm sure they've done the projections here. I think Ohtani probably makes more sense to them as far as FA risks go, and they've certainly got as much money to spend as anybody else if they think it's good business.  

Edited November 7, 2023 by SOFNR

[WhyCantWeWin]

I think the Giants get Ohtani. Other than the west coast connection, someone mentioned the 350 mil they were going to throw Correa that went unspent, I think they go all in for him or Yamamoto 

[Tim]

I think it's inaccurate to say that the Cubs don't play at the top end of the FA market when they just signed Swanson to a 7/$177m contract last year. That may not be the tippy top of the market, but that's pretty close top of market. They've also run a top 2-3 payroll in the recent past. 

I understand the hesitation here, but I think it's being overblown by some.

[Dfan25]

Rogers also said that he thinks the chances of Ohtani signing with the Cubs are higher than Bellinger coming back . Also mentioned that maybe they could sign Matt Chapman because they need a 3B . 

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Rogers also said that he thinks the chances of Ohtani signing with the Cubs are higher than Bellinger coming back . Also mentioned that maybe they could sign Matt Chapman because they need a 3B . 

If they give Matt Chapman the 100+M he's projected at, I will straight up vomit. The guy posted a 110 wRC+ on the season, but if you look at his numbers from May 1st until the end of the season(467 PAs) he posted a .205/.298/.361 line good for an 84 wRC+. I'm not even sure I'd offer him 2/40 at this point.

[SOFNR]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

I think it's inaccurate to say that the Cubs don't play at the top end of the FA market when they just signed Swanson to a 7/$177m contract last year. That may not be the tippy top of the market, but that's pretty close top of market. They've also run a top 2-3 payroll in the recent past. 

I understand the hesitation here, but I think it's being overblown by some.

I don't think anyone is calling them a poverty franchise. But they've entered the season as a top 5 payroll twice since the Ricketts took over, and the last time they were really competing for a top 5 free agent was entering 2018. They didn't really even participate in FA 2019-2020 and since then they've mostly just been waiting out the market each year. Last year was definitely a step in the right direction and Swanson appears to have been the right choice. But I think the Ricketts have fully earned a "I'll believe it when i see it" attitude at this point when it comes to going after the top guys. Hopefully they're ready to outbid other teams again. It looks plausible

Edited November 7, 2023 by SOFNR

[Jason Ross]

 

There appears to be no "new" news here, but more smoke. Mentions the names "Ohtani and Bellinger" specifically in a response to a question about who their "main" targets are. Also "trades".

Edited November 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Tim]

Ah...the new offseason megathread. 😀

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Tim said:

Ah...the new offseason megathread. 😀

There's nothing like the offseason. So much hopes. So much of it shall be dashed. Hopefully inbetween a few moments like yesterday of delight and elatement.

[Tim]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

There's nothing like the offseason. So much hopes. So much of it shall be dashed. Hopefully inbetween a few moments like yesterday of delight and elatement.

I'm just hoping Juan Soto uses the same number as Geo so I can pull that jersey out of mothballs

[Cuzi]

Cubs have been spreading that message for 2 years now. Even Boras was giddy about the Cubs legitimately spending last offseason, turned out all that was regarding was the 1 year deal on Bellinger at near the amount the Dodgers declined to pay.

I will say, if Bellinger is looking at 6/150 or so, I would expect the Cubs to be heavily in on that. Because not only does he immediately become your CFer at a decent cost, while PCA continues development at AAA to start the year, that price also makes sense at 1B later.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Cubs have been spreading that message for 2 years now. Even Boras was giddy about the Cubs legitimately spending last offseason, turned out all that was regarding was the 1 year deal on Bellinger at near the amount the Dodgers declined to pay.

 

Cubs signed 10 players for a total of $310m last offseason, 5th most in baseball. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Cubs have been spreading that message for 2 years now. Even Boras was giddy about the Cubs legitimately spending last offseason, turned out all that was regarding was the 1 year deal on Bellinger at near the amount the Dodgers declined to pay.

Last offseason the Cubs added 41 million in long term AAV(3+ year deals), and 35 million in short term AAV(1-2 year deals).  After the offseason they added an additional 25-30 million in long-term AAV in extensions.  This idea that the Cubs aren't legitimate or real or serious spenders is a just pliable enough idea that the definition always just so happens to shift to fit the prior beliefs of those complaining about it.

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1721701333403881582?t=f-Dij-WvtEiwr0ijmOuaJA&s=19

[chibears55]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Last offseason the Cubs added 41 million in long term AAV(3+ year deals), and 35 million in short term AAV(1-2 year deals).  After the offseason they added an additional 25-30 million in long-term AAV in extensions.  This idea that the Cubs aren't legitimate or real or serious spenders is a just pliable enough idea that the definition always just so happens to shift to fit the prior beliefs of those complaining about it.

Problem in most cases is who they spend it on and over spending to get certain players in on a 1 or 2 yr deal.