Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Cuzi]

The Padres have three 10+ year contracts.

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

The Padres have three 10+ year contracts.

We're talking about FA contracts.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Tim said:

We're talking about FA contracts.

Then why bring up the Yankees? They have zero.

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Then why bring up the Yankees? They have zero.

I think Tom was making a slightly different point there. But yeah, if he's including the Yankees, then the Padres have three and the Braves have one, as well. 

[Cuzi]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Cole and Judge 

Neither one is 10 years.

[Tim]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Cole and Judge 

Both nine year contracts

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, Tim said:

I think the *only* other players that get added if you make it an all-time list are Harper, Machado & ARod. There just aren't a ton of data points there to draw conclusions.

I disagree. How many times do they have to not go to a 10+ year deal before there is enough data. You are discounting the SS in this class by suggesting they got who they wanted. But maybe they wanted him because he wasn’t a 10+ year guy. I just don’t think it is an exaggeration to say they have avoided this sort of signing. Again, pinning it all on Jed, isn’t right IMO, but ignoring the past examples isn’t right either. That said, maybe they have a change in thinking. Maybe Soto or Ohtani are different. Maybe where they are as a team makes the scenario different. But up until now I feel they have shown us who they are. They are a FO/Ownership who do not offer the 10 year deals. I would be very happy if they proved me and others wrong this off season. 

[Tim]

Cubs have released these guys:

RHP Tomy Sanchez
RHP Derek Casey
RHP Michael McAvene
RHP Jarod Wright
LHP Scott Kobos
C Malcom Quintero
C Jake Washer
OF Raino Coran

 

None of them were worth creating a thread for. McAvene is the biggest name there, but has never combined health & performance to any great extent.

[Cuzi]

Here's the thing when it comes to the Cubs, more specifically Hoyer, and decade long deals. It is not that they can't afford them, it's pretty clear that they can since they have been rumored to offer more AAV in a shorter term. It's also not that they haven't been interested in the players that have signed these deals. They were interested in both Seager and Correa, but not at 10+ years. They were interested in Bogarts, but not at 10+ years. They wanted all of those players for around the same amount of years that Swanson signed for.

The question to ask is, is there any player that Hoyer does believe is worth 10+ years? Because every player that the market has said was worth 10+ years, Hoyer has said they are worth 6-7. I don't see the kind of man Hoyer has shown to be as a guy that's going to go out there and offer Ohtani a competitive deal, especially after he just had his second TJS two months ago. If there was any player that has been no doubt worth a 10 year deal available since Hoyer has been the final decision maker, it's Juan Soto. If the Cubs choose to avoid that path because they don't want to make that commitment on top of the prospects to get him and choose to go with Alonso because they can probably sign him to a 6 year deal, then we have our answer, which we already kind of have.

Edited November 5, 2023 by Cuzi

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Not a thing that happened 

Are you really questioning that Ohtani has had two TJS? Bold move.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

There are so few FAs who can get 10 years, keep in mind Mookie Betts among others never reached, that it’s probably not a real way to gauge Hoyer’s tendencies. This time last year the vast majority thought the Cubs would hit Correa with one of those fancy deals no sweat, not sure why expectations would change if the talent is there. Machado and Harper were the first 10 year deals for either the Padres or Phillies, Betts the only one on Dodgers (Cubs would actually have a similar Betts/Freeman setup with Ohtani/Swanson), and the only team with more than one is the Yankees 

 

We likely won't see many 8+, let alone 10+ FA deals anymore because the majority of the top stud players don't become FA until late 20s early 30s after they finish out their 5-7 yrs of being controlled by their original team, and alot of those guys may even extend with their teams pass their Arbs yrs..

Just dont think teams are over willing to pay top dollars to players after age 35 anymore, especially pitchers.

Edited November 5, 2023 by chibears55

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Here's the thing when it comes to the Cubs, more specifically Hoyer, and decade long deals. It is not that they can't afford them, it's pretty clear that they can since they have been rumored to offer more AAV in a shorter term. It's also not that they haven't been interested in the players that have signed these deals. They were interested in both Seager and Correa, but not at 10+ years. They were interested in Bogarts, but not at 10+ years. They wanted all of those players for around the same amount of years that Swanson signed for.

The question to ask is, is there any player that Hoyer does believe is worth 10+ years? Because every player that the market has said was worth 10+ years, Hoyer has said they are worth 6-7. I don't see the kind of man Hoyer has shown to be as a guy that's going to go out there and offer Ohtani a competitive deal, especially after he just had his second TJS two months ago. If there was any player that has been no doubt worth a 10 year deal available since Hoyer has been the final decision maker, it's Juan Soto. If the Cubs choose to avoid that path because they don't want to make that commitment on top of the prospects to get him and choose to go with Alonso because they can probably sign him to a 6 year deal, then we have our answer, which we already kind of have.

Cuzi, I agree with everything you said except I also place this line of thinking on the ownership too. I think they are just as responsible as Hoyer, and maybe more so, when it comes to not giving out 10 year deals. But regardless of whose is responsible, the Cubs have not shown the desire to offer those contracts. And I feel there is enough proof to back that line of thinking up. 

[chibears55]

29 minutes ago, Tim said:

Cubs have released these guys:

RHP Tomy Sanchez
RHP Derek Casey
RHP Michael McAvene
RHP Jarod Wright
LHP Scott Kobos
C Malcom Quintero
C Jake Washer
OF Raino Coran

 

None of them were worth creating a thread for. McAvene is the biggest name there, but has never combined health & performance to any great extent.

I honestly never heard of any of them 🤷‍♂️

[chibears55]

Cubs have picked up options on both Hendricks and Gomes for 2024..

So, as of now the rotation sits at Steele, Taillon,  and Hendricks 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

We likely won't see many 8+, let alone 10+ FA deals anymore because the majority of the top stud players don't become FA until late 20s early 30s after they finish out their 5-7 yrs of being controlled by their original team, and alot of those guys may even extend with their teams pass their Arbs yrs..

 

How is the age of a free agent any different than it has been the last 20 years? If anything, guys are starting their careers younger now because of the incentive to bring a top guy up early. There is just no proof to what you are saying. Guys will be free agents at 27, 28 and even 30. And they will still want the 8 year deal for sure. And the elite will still want the 10 year deal. No different than now. 

[Cuzi]

So we are willing to say there is enough evidence out there to suggest teams are steering away from 10+ year deals, but not willing to say there's enough evidence out there to suggest that the Cubs wont sign a 10+ year deal? Wild.

[chibears55]

28 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How is the age of a free agent any different than it has been the last 20 years? If anything, guys are starting their careers younger now because of the incentive to bring a top guy up early. There is just no proof to what you are saying. Guys will be free agents at 27, 28 and even 30. And they will still want the 8 year deal for sure. And the elite will still want the 10 year deal. No different than now. 

I said we won't see as many, I didn't say we won't see any..

Plus we are seeing the younger studs signing extensions with their original teams pass their ARB years now..

We are seeing very few top players becoming FA at age 27-30 now, and only a very few of them are getting 8+ to 10+ year deals. 

 

And difference now then years ago is the Threshold Cap, majority of teams just aren't going to tie up big money into guys that are 35+ anymore for multiple yrs. and we don't see many kids coming up and being full time starters in their early 20s as much nowadays like before.

Edited November 5, 2023 by chibears55

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

And difference now then years ago is the Threshold Cap, majority of teams just aren't going to tie up big money into guys that are 35+ anymore for multiple yrs.

The majority of teams cant afford to tie up big money in a player at 18+.

We have gone exactly 0 offseasons without a 10+ year contract. It will always be the minority of teams making those offers because only the minority can cover the cost and still field a competitive team. Contracts are going up, not down. There's nothing to suggest it's going in the opposite direction.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Do we….see Jordan Wicks as interchangeable with Assad and Brown? I’ve seen them lumped together more than once. He’s, by far, the most valuable of the three. I’m all for Alonso but the Cubs aren’t moving Jordan Wicks for him or probably anyone available 

I can't really see the Cubs trading any of Wicks/Brown/Assad.  They need the SP depth next year.  They have a lot of position player prospects to use in trades.  They can put Mervis in a deal if they want Alonso and start there.  I also see Brown as better than Wicks.

Edited November 5, 2023 by Stratos

[Tim]

36 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

So we are willing to say there is enough evidence out there to suggest teams are steering away from 10+ year deals, but not willing to say there's enough evidence out there to suggest that the Cubs wont sign a 10+ year deal? Wild.

You do understand the difference between steering away from something and having a hard and fast rule against it, right?

Because your post implies that you don't.

[Cuzi]

12 minutes ago, Tim said:

You do understand the difference between steering away from something and having a hard and fast rule against it, right?

Because your post implies that you don't.

You do understand the irony of suggesting the Cubs will do something they have never done and avoided doing while at the same time suggesting teams are steering away from doing it, right?

Because your post implies you don't.

[chibears55]

There are currently 14 players that are playing under a 10+ year contract, and 9 of them were FA that signed their contract with a new team.

 

There are currently 11 players that are playing with a contract of 8 or 9 yrs, and just 3 of those players have signed with a new team as a FA.

 

Only 9 of all these FA have signed their 8+ year deals in last 5 seasons. 

 

So,  as said, the 8+ and 10+ years being given to FA and especially FA leaving their current/original team are just not a thing being offered much anymore.

 

As far as Hoyer goes, I'd be surprise if he ties up big money on a 30 YO for 10 years, not sure having  35-40 mil tied up into one player from age 35 to 39 is a good idea with an owner like Ricketts who sets low budgets

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Cuzi, I agree with everything you said except I also place this line of thinking on the ownership too. I think they are just as responsible as Hoyer, and maybe more so, when it comes to not giving out 10 year deals. But regardless of whose is responsible, the Cubs have not shown the desire to offer those contracts. And I feel there is enough proof to back that line of thinking up. 

I don't buy for one second that Ricketts is the driving force behind not signing a 10 year deal. Ricketts is a business man. He of all people understands investments. There is no chance he believes that signing one of these guys to a 10 year deal is a bad investment. If you look at all of the mega contracts in history and compare it to what teams are paying on a per WAR basis, there is only 1 that comes out as a surplus off the top of my head and that's Max Scherzers deal with the Nationals. Yet with all of the evidence to suggest that no matter how good the player is, they aren't worth the money, then why do teams continue to pay them more and more? Because to the owners it doesn't matter how they perform on the field. What matters is how much revenue they bring in and they all understand that someone like Ohtani is going to bring in his entire contract in revenue by like year 3.

 

On the other hand, Hoyer's job is on the line with these decisions. If Ricketts is willing to sign off on 6-7 years at $35M/year, then there is not shot that he wouldn't sign off on 10 years at $30M. Because a dollar today is worth more than a dollar a tomorrow. So while Ricketts would sign off on something because in the end his bank account will grow no matter what, Hoyer has to keep producing to keep his job.

Edited November 5, 2023 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

I think the Cubs would sign a 25 y/o to a 10 yr deal.  It's a far, far better idea than signing a 29/30 yo to an expensive 10 year deal, which IMO is a manifestly stupid the vast majority of the time.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I said we won't see as many, I didn't say we won't see any..

Plus we are seeing the younger studs signing extensions with their original teams pass their ARB years now..

We are seeing very few top players becoming FA at age 27-30 now, and only a very few of them are getting 8+ to 10+ year deals. 

 

And difference now then years ago is the Threshold Cap, majority of teams just aren't going to tie up big money into guys that are 35+ anymore for multiple yrs. and we don't see many kids coming up and being full time starters in their early 20s as much nowadays like before.

I don’t think we will see many because we never reall saw many. Let’s take Acuna as an example. This is a guy who signed a long extension. However he will be a free agent at 30. Are you saying he won’t get 10 year., or at least 8? As for the age being higher right now to start in the majors, we are coming off basically 2 lost years of minor league play due to Covid. I think we will start seeing fiys coming up earlier again soon. And not all will sign past their mandatory time with a team. Just like it is  I just don’t feel any conclusion can be drawn to make the statement you made. I am not saying you are wrong and there will be more signings of 8 to 10 year deals. I am saying there is no basis to your comment.