Cubs offseason chit chat...

[JD94]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

The key with Soto for me is that I just don't believe he will ever sign an extension.  He seems 100% intent on testing free agency.  If we were all him, just 1 year out from FA, i think we'd all do the same as well.  It's the best business decision.

If the Cubs still want to give up good prospects for only 1 year of Soto then they have to go out and spend to add more talent to make it worth it.  It just doesn't seem like a Cubs kind of play.  They didn't even jump on Sean Murphy last year, who was a great fit.

I think Yamamoto is the most likely for us between Soto, Ohanti, and him.

 

Why wouldn’t Soto sign an extension? Because he didn’t sign one with Washington when he was like 22 years old that would have paid him $29M AAV over 15 years? San Diego hasn’t even put an offer on the table. They have multiple long term commitments already and they aren’t winning. I’m sure they are thinking throwing $400M+ might not be the smartest business decision for them right now considering their situation. 
 

I obviously don’t know what Soto wants, but you’d have to believe something like $35M~ AAV over 12 years would get it done. 

[Y2J]

20 hours ago, JHBulls said:

Cleveland fans don’t revile Terry Francona after blowing a 3-1 series lead. Cubs fans will be just fine. 

This is the grumpiest Cubs forum I’ve ever been a part of. 😂

[WhyCantWeWin]

3 hours ago, JD94 said:

Why wouldn’t Soto sign an extension? Because he didn’t sign one with Washington when he was like 22 years old that would have paid him $29M AAV over 15 years? San Diego hasn’t even put an offer on the table. They have multiple long term commitments already and they aren’t winning. I’m sure they are thinking throwing $400M+ might not be the smartest business decision for them right now considering their situation. 
 

I obviously don’t know what Soto wants, but you’d have to believe something like $35M~ AAV over 12 years would get it done. 

Yeah the Nats were putting in massive deferrals if I remember correctly. Just offer him a straight up 400 mil contract 

[JHBulls]

1 hour ago, Y2J said:

This is the grumpiest Cubs forum I’ve ever been a part of. 😂

The grumpier, the better. 

[Tryptamine]

Reading through some 2024 FA predictions and here's some of the results per site

 

1) Bellinger

2) JD Martinez and Sonny Gray

3) Matt Chapman

So basically no one has them making a big splash and has them going into 2024 being worse than they were this year unless there's a lot of trades happening.

[Bertz]

39 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Reading through some 2024 FA predictions and here's some of the results per site

 

1) Bellinger

2) JD Martinez and Sonny Gray

3) Matt Chapman

So basically no one has them making a big splash and has them going into 2024 being worse than they were this year unless there's a lot of trades happening.

FWIW Jesse Rogers did an interview a week or so back and said he doesn't expect Jed to go nuts in FA but that he does expect significant trade activity.  I'd imagine a lot of it is how terrible the FA class is.  Yamamoto is literally the only impact FA without major warts.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Reading through some 2024 FA predictions and here's some of the results per site

 

1) Bellinger

2) JD Martinez and Sonny Gray

3) Matt Chapman

So basically no one has them making a big splash and has them going into 2024 being worse than they were this year unless there's a lot of trades happening.

If they signed Chapman and traded for Soto that wouldn’t be a bad start. Still like to see more, but maybe through another trade they add a rotation piece. Not a huge Chapman fan, but if Morel is traded for Soto I would be fine with Chapman playing 3rd. They would have an elite defense. 

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

What’s Ohtani’s major wart? Not also being an ace pitcher to go with being a top few hitter? 

He did just have surgery on his throwing arm. So he'll be a $40-45M DH year 1 and who knows how he comes back as a pitcher.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Cuzi

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is it an actual wart that a top 3 hitter in the sport, the most famous and popular player on the planet, also won’t be a rotation anchor next year? I guess in the sense that it’s never enough? 

What does his fame and popularity have to do with anything other than directly making Ricketts more money?

Being a pitcher and having surgery on your throwing arm months before FA is a wart. If its a wart for the little guy, its a wart for the bigger guy. The only difference is its going to be more overlooked on the bigger guy.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

We keep coming back to the Major Wart this guy who just hit .304/.412/.654 in Anaheim has is he won’t also be the team’s ace SP next year. I guess it’s all relative but really seems born from nothing ever being enough    

If he was only a DH, would the talk of him getting $500-600M exist?

[Cuzi]

Nothing has left until he signs a contract.

Acting like a player losing 3-5 WAR/year of his value is not a major wart is laughable.

[mul21]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It’s as laughable as the Major Wart on the perennial MVP candidate hitter being that he also won’t be the ace SP next year 

You're just pedantically insufferable.

[CubinNY]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Reading through some 2024 FA predictions and here's some of the results per site

 

1) Bellinger

2) JD Martinez and Sonny Gray

3) Matt Chapman

So basically no one has them making a big splash and has them going into 2024 being worse than they were this year unless there's a lot of trades happening.

That sounds about correct. They are all about going about this in the "right" way. But, I kind of believe that if they make those moves they will be better than 2023. 

[Jason Ross]

 

A breakdown (using bWAR) of teams net gains/losses via trades since 2012. The Cubs have come out pretty strongly over that time span.  Make of it as you wish, but did find the data interesting.

Edited October 31, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rex Buckingham]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

 

A breakdown (using bWAR) of teams net gains/losses via trades since 2012. The Cubs have come out pretty strongly over that time span.  Make of it as you wish, but did find the data interesting.

Hendricks, Arrieta, Strop, Wade Davis, Dex (1st year) and I think Rizzo... pretty solid returns

[gocubs218]

27 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Hendricks, Arrieta, Strop, Wade Davis, Dex (1st year) and I think Rizzo... pretty solid returns

Even guys like Montero were probably a net positive. 

[sweetpeteman]

9 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Even guys like Montero were probably a net positive. 

Zach Godley and his 1 good season throws off Montero

[Tim]

46 minutes ago, sweetpeteman said:

Zach Godley and his 1 good season throws off Montero

I hate that I always have a moment of confusion when discussing Zach G's on Arizona

[JHBulls]

2 hours ago, gocubs218 said:

Even guys like Montero were probably a net positive. 

Hit the NLCS Game 1 home run to win it and scored the winning run in Game 7 of the World Series. If those were his only two hits in a Cubs uniform over 3 years, he would still be viewed as a success. He did alright for himself. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by JHBulls

[Tryptamine]

Staumont and Karinchak are 2 guys I'd love to take a chance on. They both have absolutely dominating stuff when they're right. Unfortunately the strength of the Cubs seems to be more in getting guys with good control to the next tier of stuff, rather than getting guys with good stuff to the next tier of control. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If some team is really enamored with Amaya in trade talks, I wouldn't hate trading him and adding McGuire.

[Tryptamine]

It's not so flashly as Soto, Alonso, etc. but if the Cubs are looking for a solid bat that they could use as the OF/DH or even at 1B, I don't think Anthony Santander would be the worst choice. 119 and 122 wRC+ the last two years and he's in his last year of arbitration before he hits FA. The Orioles make this move to gets Kjersted into the line up and the Cubs could probably get him reasonable cheaply. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Tryptamine

[WhyCantWeWin]

Dominic Smith will be playing 1B if the Cubs don't get Alonso. Bet on it. 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Dominic Smith will be playing 1B if the Cubs don't get Alonso. Bet on it. 

I think we've finally seen that ship sail. The Cubs can be cheap at times and haven't really valued 1b, but they're not going to bring in a 90 wRC+ 1b. They might not go huge at 1b, but I don't think we'll see even close to a repeat of the Eric Hosmer nonsense.

[WhyCantWeWin]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think we've finally seen that ship sail. The Cubs can be cheap at times and haven't really valued 1b, but they're not going to bring in a 90 wRC+ 1b. They might not go huge at 1b, but I don't think we'll see even close to a repeat of the Eric Hosmer nonsense.

Idk man, Hoyer seems to think there's no such thing as a bad 1 year deal. No matter how terrible the player is. Never seen a pobo/gm with such an aversion for long term deals as him, seems like those last few years of the Theo reign where Ricketts refused to sign off on any additional dollars spent on payroll really scared him.