Buy or sell, where do you land? Let's talk hot stove.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

We will just agree to disagree. If you tell me I can keep Stroman, Bellinger, and Gomes and have a 25% chance to make the playoffs this year with them, or you can trade them and get 2 guys under control for the next 7 years that are perennial 4 fWAR type players, I’m taking the 2nd option all day. Especially when I have a top 10 prospect in baseball that’s almost ready. I can just go and pay Cody Bellinger the most money to come back. I have a load of pitching prospects almost ready and a MLB ace already on the roster. And I also have plenty of money to spend in free agency. I’m hedging my bets on the next 7 years rather than my minuscule chance of sneaking into the Wild Card this year. 
 

I want winning baseball as bad as you and anybody else. I’m sick of selling and rebuilding. I also know the next 5-7 years are more important than this one year. If we were a lock to make the playoffs, but weren’t a very good team, I would agree. Don’t sell. I’m willing to give up on one year of hopes and maybes if it greatly increases my odds the next 5-7 years. I would consider 2 perennial 4 fWAR type players greatly increasing my odds for the future. 

If they sold for high end prospects and then used some of that minor league talent as assets to made deals next year for proven talent I would be more open to selling. But they don’t seem to do that. They seem to hold into all prospects. It is time to win. If not now and they sell, then definitely next year. By signing guys, bringing high end guys up and dealing other assets for proven talent. 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I know the narrative is the cubs are beating bad teams. And overall record wise they are. But the Cardinals had won 5 straight prior to coming to Chicago. Made it 6 in a row then the cubs took the next 3. After that the cardinals went to the desert and won another series. They have been playing well. And the Sox are always going to give the cubs their best. Simple fact is, they Cubs are playing well, period. And they have handled a hit Cardinals team 5 out of 6. You can’t always just look at overall records when determine if a series should be easy or not. As an example the Reds handled the dbacks. That seems impressive until you go back and look at the dbacks last 20 games. They are terrible now. Right now beating the cardinals is more impressive than beating the dbacks. 

Eh.  I think that's the kind of spurious logic than can convince you any team in college football deserves to be in the National Championship game.  "Well, Penn State beat Ohio State, and Ohio State beat Michigan, and Michigan beat TCU, so really, Penn State is better than TCU and needed to be in the national championship game!".  Arizona is a much better team than the St. Louis Cardinals.  Hot is great, but I think you're placing far too much emphasis on who's hot and whos' not.  And the White Sox playing the Cubs hard?  I don't think most White Sox or Cubs players care about the rivalry like natives of the city do; they likely play just as hard against any other team. 

The Cubs are picking apart some weak teams right now.  That's not really a "bad" thing, if you want to make the playoffs, beating up on the bad teams is a good way to make that happen I actually think it's a positive sign.  But I think it's okay to call a spade a spade here, too.

Edited July 29, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Tryptamine]

5 minutes ago, JD94 said:

We will just agree to disagree. If you tell me I can keep Stroman, Bellinger, and Gomes and have a 25% chance to make the playoffs this year with them, or you can trade them and get 2 guys under control for the next 7 years that are perennial 4 fWAR type players, I’m taking the 2nd option all day. Especially when I have a top 10 prospect in baseball that’s almost ready. I can just go and pay Cody Bellinger the most money to come back. I have a load of pitching prospects almost ready and a MLB ace already on the roster. And I also have plenty of money to spend in free agency. I’m hedging my bets on the next 7 years rather than my minuscule chance of sneaking into the Wild Card this year. 
 

I want winning baseball as bad as you and anybody else. I’m sick of selling and rebuilding. I also know the next 5-7 years are more important than this one year. If we were a lock to make the playoffs, but weren’t a very good team, I would agree. Don’t sell. I’m willing to give up on one year of hopes and maybes if it greatly increases my odds the next 5-7 years. I would consider 2 perennial 4 fWAR type players greatly increasing my odds for the future. 

Who are these perennial 4 war near Allstar players you're penciling in? If you're expecting that from trading Bellinger and Stroman, be prepared to be disappointed 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

If they sold for high end prospects and then used some of that minor league talent as assets to made deals next year for proven talent I would be more open to selling. But they don’t seem to do that. They seem to hold into all prospects. It is time to win. If not now and they sell, then definitely next year. By signing guys, bringing high end guys up and dealing other assets for proven talent. 

In the Cubs defense, they haven't put forth a team that it made sense to spend from their prospect depth yet.  I think we can certainly question whether they have the stomach for that kind of a trade, or the aggressiveness it'll take to put out a really good team, but I'm not sure their lack of prospect-for-MLB-talents is much of an indicator yet that they won't.  

[JD94]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Who are these perennial 4 war near Allstar players you're penciling in? If you're expecting that from trading Bellinger and Stroman, be prepared to be disappointed 

It was a hypothetical to go along with the hypothetical I replied to. Obviously I don’t know that for sure. I do know I trust Jed in these trades. We’ve gotten extremely intriguing prospects back for rentals recently such as PCA, Wesneski, Alcantara, Ben Brown, etc. Our future basically lies in the hands of these prospects working out. So why stop trusting Jed now? It seems like a sellers market to this point. Giolito got a 50 FV back. The Mets are about to get a 50 FV top 40 prospect back for a very expensive and relatively bad 39 year old Max Scherzer who is set to make $43M next year also. So yeah… it’s basically me trusting Jed because he’s done very well in trades to this point and it appears to be a sellers market. 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

In the Cubs defense, they haven't put forth a team that it made sense to spend from their prospect depth yet.  I think we can certainly question whether they have the stomach for that kind of a trade, or the aggressiveness it'll take to put out a really good team, but I'm not sure their lack of prospect-for-MLB-talents is much of an indicator yet that they won't.  

That is fair. But my point is if they do sell and get prospects I would much rather they use their minor league assets for proven talent. I would be much more excited about imeocinf the system if they used the system to bring in actual major league talent. Hopefully they do. But I don’t think they will sell. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

That is fair. But my point is if they do sell and get prospects I would much rather they use their minor league assets for proven talent. I would be much more excited about imeocinf the system if they used the system to bring in actual major league talent. Hopefully they do. But I don’t think they will sell. 

I don't think they're going to sell either. If I was handicapping it, I'd say the most likely thing is that they'll hold Stroman and Bellinger, and maybe add some small something and call it a day.  But I think of the 3 forks the Cubs can realistically take, it's my least favorite of the 3.  On the first point...I don't think that will happen until the offseason regardless.  

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think they're going to sell either. If I was handicapping it, I'd say the most likely thing is that they'll hold Stroman and Bellinger, and maybe add some small something and call it a day.  But I think of the 3 forks the Cubs can realistically take, it's my least favorite of the 3.  On the first point...I don't think that will happen until the offseason regardless.  

I figure they pick up 2 solid relievers on the cheap and the biggest splurge they consider is Candelario. Though if Alonso is available now, I'm intrigued.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I figure they pick up 2 solid relievers on the cheap and the biggest splurge they consider is Candelario. Though if Alonso is available now, I'm intrigued.

Yeah, Alonso is fun.  That would certainly change things.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

51 minutes ago, JD94 said:

We will just agree to disagree. If you tell me I can keep Stroman, Bellinger, and Gomes and have a 25% chance to make the playoffs this year with them, or you can trade them and get 2 guys under control for the next 7 years that are perennial 4 fWAR type players,

No one's offering you that for rentals.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

38 minutes ago, JD94 said:

It was a hypothetical to go along with the hypothetical I replied to. Obviously I don’t know that for sure. I do know I trust Jed in these trades. We’ve gotten extremely intriguing prospects back for rentals recently such as PCA, Wesneski, Alcantara, Ben Brown, etc. Our future basically lies in the hands of these prospects working out. So why stop trusting Jed now? It seems like a sellers market to this point. Giolito got a 50 FV back. The Mets are about to get a 50 FV top 40 prospect back for a very expensive and relatively bad 39 year old Max Scherzer who is set to make $43M next year also. So yeah… it’s basically me trusting Jed because he’s done very well in trades to this point and it appears to be a sellers market. 

Wesneski and Brown suck.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

47 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Eh.  I think that's the kind of spurious logic than can convince you any team in college football deserves to be in the National Championship game.  "Well, Penn State beat Ohio State, and Ohio State beat Michigan, and Michigan beat TCU, so really, Penn State is better than TCU and needed to be in the national championship game!".  Arizona is a much better team than the St. Louis Cardinals.  Hot is great, but I think you're placing far too much emphasis on who's hot and whos' not.  And the White Sox playing the Cubs hard?  I don't think most White Sox or Cubs players care about the rivalry like natives of the city do; they likely play just as hard against any other team. 

The Cubs are picking apart some weak teams right now.  That's not really a "bad" thing, if you want to make the playoffs, beating up on the bad teams is a good way to make that happen I actually think it's a positive sign.  But I think it's okay to call a spade a spade here, too.

College football and baseball are not comparable in terms of how often worse teams win.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

46 minutes ago, JD94 said:

It was a hypothetical to go along with the hypothetical I replied to. 

Changing "controllable asset" to "perennial 4-win player" changes the hypothetical substantially.

Averaging 4 wins per season from 2017-2022 made you one of the top 15 batters in baseball.

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

College football and baseball are not comparable in terms of how often worse teams win.

It wasn't a direct apples, to apples, literal, comparison of how often teams win and lose in those sports, instead an example of how fans incorrectly use the transitive property.  I recognize the Cardinals recently beat the Diamondbacks.  I also recognize that Arizona's in a bit of a dry spell.  I wouldn't in any way say it's more impressive to take a series off the Cardinals simply because the Cardinals took a few games off Arizona recently.  Arizona is the better team.  I also think it's good that the Cubs are beating bad teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, so it's not a dig at the Cubs wins.  But I don't think a recent dry spell, or a recent hot spell changes how the two teams should be viewed.  Arizona is just better.  

Edited July 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Wesneski and Brown suck.

Okay… this post told me all I need to know. I’m wasting my time going back and forth with you. Go Cubs. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, JD94 said:

Okay… this post told me all I need to know. I’m wasting my time going back and forth with you. Go Cubs. 

Cognitive dissonance. Sorry I told you that a guy with a 5+ ERA in AAA sucks.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Cognitive dissonance. Sorry I told you that a guy with a 5+ ERA in AAA sucks.

I think that's a pretty simplistic view for what or what does not make a good prospect.  Does Spencer Strider suck because he had a 4.71 ERA in AA (he never seriously pitched in AAA).  This isn't saying Ben Brown = Spencer Strider, only that development comes in many facets, and while it's always more fun to see prospects bang away with amazing ERA's or impressive batting averages, many times numbers can hide talent.  

 

Ben Brown isn't ready to be apart of an MLB rotation today today.  His fastball command is inconsistent and may never become consistent enough (it also, might!).  I also think he's a really fun prospect and doesn't suck.  

[mul21]

I think there’s the emotional piece from the players that needs to be considered as well. A team this hot has players that are going to expect that they’re going to get help. Just look at what happened to the Brewers after they traded Hader last year. I’ll be really disappointed if they don’t add something, even if it’s just a pen arm or two to make Kay and Rucker not ever see the light of day again this season. 

[JD94]

8 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Cognitive dissonance. Sorry I told you that a guy with a 5+ ERA in AAA sucks.

Again, go Cubs. That one post told me you aren’t rational and I’m not wasting any more of my time on it. 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think there’s the emotional piece from the players that needs to be considered as well. A team this hot has players that are going to expect that they’re going to get help. Just look at what happened to the Brewers after they traded Hader last year. I’ll be really disappointed if they don’t add something, even if it’s just a pen arm or two to make Kay and Rucker not ever see the light of day again this season. 

The one thing I'll say is this: while it hurt the Brewers last year...it doesn't appear to have any hold over effect; they're in first place.  That doesn't mean there might not be some under the hood stuff that isn't public knowledge and some grumpiness, but from the outside looking in...they seem fine.  They were able to take the prospect from Hader and directly turn him into William Contreras, who's putting up a 3,0 fWAR season and still has 5 years of control.  I think any instance the Cubs were to sell, they're out of the playoffs in that case regardless.  

 

You could make the argument the 2022 Brewers are a reason to for the 2023 Cubs to sell.  Now that would hinge on the Cubs finding a 3 win, controllable player, which isn't easy.  In fact, I'd say that, over the emotional damage, is the real kicker.  

Edited July 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Hairyducked Idiot]

33 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think that's a pretty simplistic view for what or what does not make a good prospect.  Does Spencer Strider suck because he had a 4.71 ERA in AA (he never seriously pitched in AAA).  This isn't saying Ben Brown = Spencer Strider, only that development comes in many facets, and while it's always more fun to see prospects bang away with amazing ERA's or impressive batting averages, many times numbers can hide talent.  

 

Ben Brown isn't ready to be apart of an MLB rotation today today.  His fastball command is inconsistent and may never become consistent enough (it also, might!).  I also think he's a really fun prospect and doesn't suck.  

He's a pitcher so there's a non-zero chance that he suddenly Jake Arrietas at any age. But right now, he sucks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

30 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Again, go Cubs. That one post told me you aren’t rational and I’m not wasting any more of my time on it. 

Cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.  

[chibears55]

I'd like to see them buy younger ready to play now prospects and sell the guys that has no part in their future and they can get good prospects for 

[Tryptamine]

Ok, go get Alsono, Raley and Sewald then win the division.

[Stratos]

Maybe they trade for Jason Heyward? 😁