Buy or sell, where do you land? Let's talk hot stove.

[Tom Emanski]

12 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think they're going to sell either. If I was handicapping it, I'd say the most likely thing is that they'll hold Stroman and Bellinger, and maybe add some small something and call it a day.  But I think of the 3 forks the Cubs can realistically take, it's my least favorite of the 3.  On the first point...I don't think that will happen until the offseason regardless.  

Yeah, I can see them making two or three additions that don't involve giving up our top prospects. Possibly someone like Candelario to play third and a guy or two for the pen. Also, bring up Mervis and live or die with him at first base. 

[CubinNY]

The problem is the outcome. One outcome is more probable and immediate. 

The other outcome is less probable and delayed. 
 

if you choose the first (buying) and it doesn’t work it causes the 2nd to be even less probable and more delayed, you’re increasing the misery index.
 

However, I’m a bit impulsive so I always favor the impulsive choice. Let’s buy the best players we can get to make this year magic. 
 

I kind of like Theo/Kyle’s idea that every season is precious. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by CubinNY

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I'd like to see them buy younger ready to play now prospects and sell the guys that has no part in their future and they can get good prospects for 

So if I am understanding what you are saying you want to sell. So get rid of Stroman, Bellinger, Gomes and some lesser guys because they are not signed next year. You want to sell when they are 3 1/2 games out of first, and 3 out of the wild card. Basically you want the white Sox white flag trades of years ago all over again. Is this correct? I competely disagree. This is a flawed team. I get that. But they are chasing other flawed teams. They have a decent chance at making the playoffs. You don’t sell now. 

[Derwood]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So if I am understanding what you are saying you want to sell. So get rid of Stroman, Bellinger, Gomes and some lesser guys because they are not signed next year. You want to sell when they are 3 1/2 games out of first, and 3 out of the wild card. Basically you want the white Sox white flag trades of years ago all over again. Is this correct? I competely disagree. This is a flawed team. I get that. But they are chasing other flawed teams. They have a decent chance at making the playoffs. You don’t sell now. 

Correct, at worst you stand pat, but you definitely don't throw in the towel

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Correct, at worst you stand pat, but you definitely don't throw in the towel

Yep, I am not buying high end rentals and giving away top prospects. They are not that good, to do that. However, if Cease or Alonso or someone like that becomes available I would be fine with giving up some solid prospects to have those guys beyond this year. The one think they can’t do is sell, IMO. Not now.  I guess they can get creative if they are not sure about Stroman. Maybe move him but the. Trade for a different pitcher like a Cease or Keller. That gives them a rotation piece beyond this year and a guy to take Stroman’s spot the rest of this year. But that is a lot of moving parts. 

[Jason Ross]

48 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So if I am understanding what you are saying you want to sell. So get rid of Stroman, Bellinger, Gomes and some lesser guys because they are not signed next year. You want to sell when they are 3 1/2 games out of first, and 3 out of the wild card. Basically you want the white Sox white flag trades of years ago all over again. Is this correct? I competely disagree. This is a flawed team. I get that. But they are chasing other flawed teams. They have a decent chance at making the playoffs. You don’t sell now. 

I wouldn't sell tonight.  Come Monday night, the Cubs could conceivably be 5.5 games back again.  I think the Cubs will likely have to go down to then to determine what to do.  At 5.5, the ask is still pretty big and I think the equation becomes far more difficult.  Not saying that happens, but I think the Cubs ultimate choice will really be made with where they are in the next 2 days.  From a fan standpoint, it'd be a lot more fun if they're 4 games back.

[thawv]

With the report that Belli and Stroman are now off the market, and the Cubs will not be sellers, do you think this is true, or are the Cubs posturing.  I just don't know how this is going to help now, and in the near future.  As in, next year. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by thawv
Edit

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

A situation after Monday night in which their worst case is .500 and 5.5 back for one route to the playoffs, the one still most likely and blocked by teams playing over their heads, is most definitely not a cue to sell

A cue to sell?  No, not exactly.  But the equation is quite different as well than being 3.5 back on Monday (or better) and may cause the Cubs to far more seriously explore moving Stroman before losing him for nothing versus the alternative which is then a clear sign to be more aggressive.  Especially if we are living in a sellers market. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, thawv said:

With the report that Belli and Stroman are now off the market, and the Cubs will not be sellers, do you think this is true, or are the Cubs posturing.  I just don't know how this is going to help now, and in the near future.  As in, next year. 

I'm sure the 2022 Brewers thought the same thing when they dealt Hader only to turn Ruiz into Contreras.  I'm not saying the Cubs would find that particularly easy, or that it's particularly a great idea to trade for a prospect today thinking they can do something later, but it isn't like we don't have pretty recent anecdotal evidence to how something like that could turn into 2024 help for the Cubs.  It's possible is all I'm saying.

 

I'll say this; I think today is pretty unlikely the Cubs will trade Bellinger (not zero but approaching).  I think the next two days and potential offers could create a scenario in which Stroman is moved, but think that's below 30% and if the Cubs dont go 0-2 over the next two, think that number will drop significantly.  I don't think those reports are wrong.  As of today, I expect the Cubs will have both Bellinger and Stroman still on the roster post TDL.

Edited July 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

42 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I wouldn't sell tonight.  Come Monday night, the Cubs could conceivably be 5.5 games back again.  I think the Cubs will likely have to go down to then to determine what to do.  At 5.5, the ask is still pretty big and I think the equation becomes far more difficult.  Not saying that happens, but I think the Cubs ultimate choice will really be made with where they are in the next 2 days.  From a fan standpoint, it'd be a lot more fun if they're 4 games back.

Isn’t the deadline prior to the Cubs game against the reds? I thought it was. So they have just today to decide. If it is after the game and if the cubs drop 2 straight and the brewers and reds win 2 straight, maybe it does chance. But if the deadline is before that gane I do t see how they sell. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Isn’t the deadline prior to the Cubs game against the reds? I thought it was. So they have just today to decide. If it is after the game and if the cubs drop 2 straight and the brewers and reds win 2 straight, maybe it does chance. But if the deadline is before that gane I do t see how they sell. 

Oops, my bad. The deadline is after I Monday’s game. Deadline is Tuesday. So to your point, if they do drop 2 and are 5.5 back, maybe the plan does change. For now they aren’t selling.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Isn’t the deadline prior to the Cubs game against the reds? I thought it was. So they have just today to decide. If it is after the game and if the cubs drop 2 straight and the brewers and reds win 2 straight, maybe it does chance. But if the deadline is before that gane I do t see how they sell. 

Deadline is August 1st.  Today is the 29th.  They have two games yet to go.

 

I do agree, today they won't sell.  Come Monday night there remains a possibility the equation can change...primarily I think on Stroman.  I don't see a situation in which many others are moved, however.  And I think even in a Stroman trade the Cubs may still soft buy a rental bat like Cron or Candelario and a BP arm.  I think "firesale" is off the table.  I think Stroman moving remains possible.

Edited July 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, thawv said:

With the report that Belli and Stroman are now off the market, and the Cubs will not be sellers, do you think this is true, or are the Cubs posturing.  I just don't know how this is going to help now, and in the near future.  As in, next year. 

You don’t know how what is going to work? Not selling? For now it helps them have a chance to win this year. IIsn’t that why they play the game? To win. The players, anyway. They can’t always keep building the system to one day try. They have to actually try when they can win. And right now, they can win. In 2 days it might be different. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Rcal10

[KCCub]

Looking ahead to that crucial game 1 of the Reds series. Stro vs Abbott wowzer. Then Steele vs Lively after the deadline. Going to be intense with a lot on the line. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Deadline is August 1st.  Today is the 29th.  They have two games yet to go.

 

I do agree, today they won't sell.  Come Monday night there remains a possibility the equation can change...primarily I think on Stroman.  I don't see a situation in which many others are moved, however.  And I think even in a Stroman trade the Cubs may still soft buy a rental bat like Cron or Candelario and a BP arm.  I think "firesale" is off the table.  I think Stroman moving remains possible.

We are all messed up 1908. Must be jet lag to the new site. Today is the 30th, but you are right they have 2 games before having to decide. I corrected myself later. Other that that, I completely agree with you. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

We are all messed up 1908. Must be jet lag to the new site. Today is the 30th, but you are right they have 2 games before having to decide. I corrected myself later. Other that that, I completely agree with you. 

Damnit.  I'll be honest with you, there are two things I have great issues remembering: whether or not G comes before or after H and whether or not July has 30 or 31 days.  The first step to admission is that you have a problem, right?  

[SOFNR]

I can't really say I've found any of these reports encouraging. If you're in, be in. This half ass nonsense isn't the way to go. Go out and add some real talent. Give them a chance.

[mfcubs22]

I want meaningful baseball in September/October. Playoff baseball is the best, and I miss it. Even if the odds of winning it all are very, very small, I want to be entertained with playoff atmosphere baseball. Isn’t the point of sports from a consumer perspective to be entertained? 
 

I also have a little bit of money on the Cubs over 77.5 wins 😏

[Tryptamine]

Hoyer needs to make up his mind and act. If he waits until after Monday's game, the chances of getting anything meaningful done is pretty small and the pool of available players will be nearly dried up.

[Dfan25]

According to Jesse Rogers , the Cubs have told teams Bellinger isn’t going to be traded . Cubs are focusing on adding to the bullpen 

[Dfan25]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Hoyer needs to make up his mind and act. If he waits until after Monday's game, the chances of getting anything meaningful done is pretty small and the pool of available players will be nearly dried up.

They aren’t adding anything meaningful anyway . They don’t have much space under the LT ( 5 million ) and looks like their plan is just to add relief help .  

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

They aren’t adding anything meaningful anyway . They don’t have much space under the LT ( 5 million ) and looks like their plan is just to add relief help .  

God forbid the Chicago Cubs go over that scary luxury tax. 

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

According to Jesse Rogers , the Cubs have told teams Bellinger isn’t going to be traded . Cubs are focusing on adding to the bullpen 

I think that is probably what they will do. Unless they lose 2 and are 5.5 back I don’t see them selling. But I also doubt they go big. If they do, I hope it is for a controlled guy, not a rental. And I seriously doubt they would give up a lot for a rental. Most likely scenario at this very moment is small but, IMO. 

[Dfan25]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think that is probably what they will do. Unless they lose 2 and are 5.5 back I don’t see them selling. But I also doubt they go big. If they do, I hope it is for a controlled guy, not a rental. And I seriously doubt they would give up a lot for a rental. Most likely scenario at this very moment is small but, IMO. 

Rogers mentioned Brad Hand / Suter and Bummer . 

[Tryptamine]

Aaron Bummer's numbers are so confusing.  A 6.69 ERA but 3.01 xERA, 2.40 FIP, 3.30 xFIP and 0 HR/FB%. His strand rate is a crazy low 48.1% and his babip is a high .351. His HARD% and MED% are both down from 2022 and his velocity is pretty much the same from last year. Is he actually getting crazy unlucky or is it something like he's broken when pitching out of the stretch?