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Posted
Some idiots tried to warn everybody that there's no such thing as being set for a decade, that aging curves were way more blunted than people were realizing and it's perfectly ordinary these days for a guy to put up his best seasons at 24-25 and never get back to that level.

 

Yeah this is my takeaway from the last six years with our core. For whatever reason, I'm going to guess that development further down the ladder is so much better now, you shouldn't really project improvement from position players after their first year or two in the league.

 

Those first 1000ish plate appearances at such an insane level of competition teach guys a lot. But afterwards, in aggregate, guys lose athleticism about as fast as they gain skill, and they just plateau until somewhere in the 28-30 neighborhood, when father time starts working faster.

 

That doesn't bode well for the White Sox going from good to great unless it happens this year. Like if Luis Robert doesn't take a big jump this offseason, it's much less likely to ever happen. What becomes more likely is that he improves his plate discipline at about the same rate he loses prowess in CF, and just settles in at 3ish WAR. That's not a bad thing, but it makes building some 105 win juggernaut pretty unlikely.

Posted
Some idiots tried to warn everybody that there's no such thing as being set for a decade, that aging curves were way more blunted than people were realizing and it's perfectly ordinary these days for a guy to put up his best seasons at 24-25 and never get back to that level.

 

from 2016 forward, some guys didn't develop into what we thought (mainly schwarber), some had some injuries, heyward turned out as badly as it could, quintana wasn't what we expected and darvish had a wasted year and a half. lester got old. zobrist got old and retired. few other things went wrong too, but i'd say blunted/early aging curves for the young guys is far from the top of the list. maybe heyward qualifies, if you want to call it that?

 

other than 2020, KB has been mostly great while missing time from time to time, Rizzo has pretty much been Rizzo, Javy took a massive leap forward (again, aside from 2020), and contreras has only gotten better. russell did go from a thing to nothing - there were obviously some unusual horsefeathers circumstances (him being a complete piece of garbage) that probably were involved with him falling off the map, but that was sort of offset by javy going full superstar. we'll see if 2020 was a blip or not for him.

 

mostly i think it was fowler going, zobrist getting older and going and the pitchers getting old/mediocre.

 

It's winter of 2016. Someone asks you "How many times in the next four seasons are Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo going to match or surpass their fWAR/game production from this season when they are 24 and 25 respectively." I say "zero." You were going to be fine with that prediction?

Posted
Some idiots tried to warn everybody that there's no such thing as being set for a decade, that aging curves were way more blunted than people were realizing and it's perfectly ordinary these days for a guy to put up his best seasons at 24-25 and never get back to that level.

 

Yeah this is my takeaway from the last six years with our core. For whatever reason, I'm going to guess that development further down the ladder is so much better now, you shouldn't really project improvement from position players after their first year or two in the league.

 

Those first 1000ish plate appearances at such an insane level of competition teach guys a lot. But afterwards, in aggregate, guys lose athleticism about as fast as they gain skill, and they just plateau until somewhere in the 28-30 neighborhood, when father time starts working faster.

 

That doesn't bode well for the White Sox going from good to great unless it happens this year. Like if Luis Robert doesn't take a big jump this offseason, it's much less likely to ever happen. What becomes more likely is that he improves his plate discipline at about the same rate he loses prowess in CF, and just settles in at 3ish WAR. That's not a bad thing, but it makes building some 105 win juggernaut pretty unlikely.

 

Between this and the way the financial system massively rewards you for freshly promoted talent, it feels like tank-and-spank has become the dominant paradigm and there's not really any good reason not to do it, which sucks.

 

Or maybe I'm just biased because I'm a Cubs fan and Epstein completely failed to give us the kind of perma-producing farm system we were promised.

Posted
Some idiots tried to warn everybody that there's no such thing as being set for a decade, that aging curves were way more blunted than people were realizing and it's perfectly ordinary these days for a guy to put up his best seasons at 24-25 and never get back to that level.

 

from 2016 forward, some guys didn't develop into what we thought (mainly schwarber), some had some injuries, heyward turned out as badly as it could, quintana wasn't what we expected and darvish had a wasted year and a half. lester got old. zobrist got old and retired. few other things went wrong too, but i'd say blunted/early aging curves for the young guys is far from the top of the list. maybe heyward qualifies, if you want to call it that?

 

other than 2020, KB has been mostly great while missing time from time to time, Rizzo has pretty much been Rizzo, Javy took a massive leap forward (again, aside from 2020), and contreras has only gotten better. russell did go from a thing to nothing - there were obviously some unusual horsefeathers circumstances (him being a complete piece of garbage) that probably were involved with him falling off the map, but that was sort of offset by javy going full superstar. we'll see if 2020 was a blip or not for him.

 

mostly i think it was fowler going, zobrist getting older and going and the pitchers getting old/mediocre.

 

It's winter of 2016. Someone asks you "How many times in the next four seasons are Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo going to match or surpass their fWAR/game production from this season when they are 24 and 25 respectively." I say "zero." You were going to be fine with that prediction?

 

match or surpass? sure. would never have considered that even a little implausible (or necessarily bad).

 

and we knew the old conventional wisdom age 27 prime/peak wasn't a thing anymore 10 years ago. if that's the argument you're making, cool, i guess.

Posted
"Aside from their most recent history, these guys are good, kinda!"

 

i mean, take whatever you want from 2020, i guess.

 

there are lot of reasons it's extremely weird and noisy, but obviously that doesn't mean you just can just wave away KB and Javy's performance. if their numbers are representative of much going forward, yes, that is very bad. can only wait and see - whether they're here or elsewhere.

Posted
Some are saying that Len should have waited for Pat to retire then take the Cubs radio job. I don't see Pat leaving anytime soon, but there's no reason why Len can't go do what he wants to do now with Sox radio and then come back to the Cubs when that job opens up.
Posted
Ignoring the Cubs dynasty obituary conversation for a second, I see and agree with all the comments about Len vs Ricketts/Sinclair, etc. But while that explains his potential frustrations/discomfort working for the Cubs, it doesn't really explain why he went where he did. No one who has followed baseball (or basketball) in the last 20 years is going to point to Reinsdorf as one of the good owners (to the extent they exist), and their most recent hire prior to Kasper was one of the most universally panned decisions that I've seen in a long time. I think we need to see how things play out for Len the next couple years to figure out exactly why he made this decision. Although if we end up with someone like Chris Myers (or worse), part of me may think it might not have been fully his decision in the first place.
Posted
Ignoring the Cubs dynasty obituary conversation for a second, I see and agree with all the comments about Len vs Ricketts/Sinclair, etc. But while that explains his potential frustrations/discomfort working for the Cubs, it doesn't really explain why he went where he did. No one who has followed baseball (or basketball) in the last 20 years is going to point to Reinsdorf as one of the good owners (to the extent they exist), and their most recent hire prior to Kasper was one of the most universally panned decisions that I've seen in a long time. I think we need to see how things play out for Len the next couple years to figure out exactly why he made this decision. Although if we end up with someone like Chris Myers (or worse), part of me may think it might not have been fully his decision in the first place.

He’s a 49 y/o with a kid whose lived in the area for 16 years. He went there because the job was open and he didn’t have to move.

 

Reinsdorf has his issues but he’s famously extremely loyal to his employees.

Posted
I'm still in shock.

 

losing len hurt me more than any chicago athlete leaving ever has. i guess we all just assumed that he would be here for a very long time.

Posted
I'm still in shock.

 

losing len hurt me more than any chicago athlete leaving ever has. i guess we all just assumed that he would be here for a very long time.

 

I’m not sure how old you are, but if you’re on this board, you probably remember losing the greatest athlete of all time to minor league baseball.

Posted

 

The names in here are generally pretty strong. Chris Myers isn't dismissed, but doesn't get a lot of length. Boog Sciambi is called a long shot, sounds like he's the caliber of guy they're aiming for but doesn't sound likely to leave his gig at ESPN. Wayne Randazzo tends to sound the most likely, though none of the names were really identified as a full on favorite.

Posted
I'm still in shock.

 

losing len hurt me more than any chicago athlete leaving ever has. i guess we all just assumed that he would be here for a very long time.

 

I’m not sure how old you are, but if you’re on this board, you probably remember losing the greatest athlete of all time to minor league baseball.

 

i was still a kid, i wasn't as miserable as i am now

Posted
I started to make a tongue-in-cheek comment that perhaps the score informed Kasper that the radio pbp job was promised to Zach zaidman when Hughes hangs em up. Couldn’t remember his name exactly. Learned that some pretty gory stuff has happened to people named Zach Zabin and Zach Sabin.
Posted
I'm still in shock.

 

losing len hurt me more than any chicago athlete leaving ever has. i guess we all just assumed that he would be here for a very long time.

 

when was the last time the Cubs lost or any other Chicago team lost a real stud in their prime? I was really bothered when the Cubs lost Maddux. I wasnt shocked because everyone knew it was coming. It still bothers me that the Cubs screwed up so bad with a HoFer and then have the audacity to retire his number. I think the thing with Len is the shock of it. You always get the sense that relationships are ending no matter what level they are on. This completely floored me.

Posted
I'm still in shock.

 

losing len hurt me more than any chicago athlete leaving ever has. i guess we all just assumed that he would be here for a very long time.

 

when was the last time the Cubs lost or any other Chicago team lost a real stud in their prime? I was really bothered when the Cubs lost Maddux. I wasnt shocked because everyone knew it was coming. It still bothers me that the Cubs screwed up so bad with a HoFer and then have the audacity to retire his number. I think the thing with Len is the shock of it. You always get the sense that relationships are ending no matter what level they are on. This completely floored me.

Did you just compare “Kasper to the Sox” to “Maddux to the Braves”? Nah.

Posted
I'm still in shock.

 

losing len hurt me more than any chicago athlete leaving ever has. i guess we all just assumed that he would be here for a very long time.

 

when was the last time the Cubs lost or any other Chicago team lost a real stud in their prime? I was really bothered when the Cubs lost Maddux. I wasnt shocked because everyone knew it was coming. It still bothers me that the Cubs screwed up so bad with a HoFer and then have the audacity to retire his number. I think the thing with Len is the shock of it. You always get the sense that relationships are ending no matter what level they are on. This completely floored me.

 

Sosa was old and getting bad, but the team's treatment of him was(and still is) really gross.

Posted
I'm still in shock.

 

losing len hurt me more than any chicago athlete leaving ever has. i guess we all just assumed that he would be here for a very long time.

 

when was the last time the Cubs lost or any other Chicago team lost a real stud in their prime? I was really bothered when the Cubs lost Maddux. I wasnt shocked because everyone knew it was coming. It still bothers me that the Cubs screwed up so bad with a HoFer and then have the audacity to retire his number. I think the thing with Len is the shock of it. You always get the sense that relationships are ending no matter what level they are on. This completely floored me.

 

wait you were mad that the cubs retired maddux's number?

 

who tf cares?

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