Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

[Derwood]

Do the Padres think Hosmer is a marketable star? Is he going to sell tickets?

[imb]

Do the Padres think Hosmer is a marketable star? Is he going to sell tickets?

 

I think he's much higher on the marketable scale than he is on "actually valuable" scale.

[davell]

Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.

 

I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

[davell]

I guess this is their version of Gil Meche (when he signed with the Royals) or Jayson Werth (with the Nationals). It's a "we're close" move at a decent enough price. They are close ... their assets coming up could form a strong foundational core in the next year or two, and the team in of itself seems ... interesting ... (on paper) for 2018. A potentially strong pen, some rotation pieces, and a maybe the foundations of a decent lineup.

 

That said, they are in the NL West, which looks to have several "ascending" teams (to go along with the Padres, the Rockies system is strong, and the Diamondbacks look headed in the right direction, even if they regress a bit) to go with the Dodgers, plus the last gasp from the Giants.

 

I don't particularly like the move, but I understand it.

 

They gave a guy who literally sucks out loud every other year a huge contract. This being a team that doesn't have money to even do this. This is a move they should have done next year or even the year after that. They're a last place team in the West this year. Maybe even next year, depending on the Giants.....

[jehr]

Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.

 

I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.

 

They immediately won the division the next two years. How was it the wrong year?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.

 

I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.

 

According to Fangraphs, we got 8.9 fWAR from his last 3.5 years before before trading him to the Yankees.

 

The Soriano contract was fine, both at the time and how it turned out.

[David]

Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.

 

They immediately won the division the next two years. How was it the wrong year?

 

wrong year in the sense that soriano was the best free agent out there.

 

to this day i'm disgusted with not signing carlos beltran

[David]

Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.

 

I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.

 

what? no

[David]

 

I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.

 

According to Fangraphs, we got 8.9 fWAR from his last 3.5 years before before trading him to the Yankees.

 

The Soriano contract was fine, both at the time and how it turned out.

 

it turned out better than people generally seem to think, but it was still negative in value overall

 

at the time it happened, i definitely had a bittersweet feeling about it. i was excited that we signed the best player out there to a big contract but i was also pretty annoyed that we didn't decide to throw all that money around when there was a better free agent class. soriano was the type of player i begrudgingly liked despite an approach at the plate that was everything i learned to dislike in a baseball player. he was so talented that he was still productive despite his allergy to working counts and walking (i think he did have a year or two where he wasn't so bad in this regard). and we got two division titles out of it.

[Cubswin11]

Signing some combination of Lomo/Lind/Carter/Bautista for a 1B platoon probably gets you as much, if not more, in season value for 1/10 the overall price and gives you much more flexibility. This is dumb anyway you look at it. Also saw this guy on twitter last night and thought these were good points..

 

[jehr]

 

I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.

 

what? no

actually, yes. 1.7 over his last 4 with us... With regular old WAR. If you want to argue that this is a good case study of fWAR over WAR, okay, I'll give you that, but I'd still say the contract was bad there at the end Edited February 18, 2018 by jehr

[Tim]

Signing some combination of Lomo/Lind/Carter/Bautista for a 1B platoon probably gets you as much, if not more, in season value for 1/10 the overall price and gives you much more flexibility. This is dumb anyway you look at it. Also saw this guy on twitter last night and thought these were good points..

 

Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

[Cubswin11]

Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

Damn, I forgot that was Duke's name. Good summation Duke.

[David]

Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

Damn, I forgot that was Duke's name. Good summation Duke.

 

i totally just thought you were kidding/being facetious

[David]

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.

 

what? no

actually, yes. 1.7 over his last 4 with us... With regular old WAR. If you want to argue that this is a good case study of fWAR over WAR, okay, I'll give you that, but I'd still say the contract was bad there at the end

 

there's no such thing as regular old WAR. I'm guessing you mean baseball reference WAR, or bWAR or rWAR. and yeah, it kinda sucks.

 

on a strict value basis, the contract was always bad. just not nearly as bad as people treat it as. it was far from some horrible albatross. just a good player who was paid a bit more than his market value should've dictated.

[ScrubMD]

In defense of the Padres, Hosmer does seem like the kind of guy who plays for the Padres.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

 

Something seems off with him. Like he's possessed by an evil spirit. Best keep him away from here.

[Regular Show]

I don't think it's a terrible deal if they can actually get him to start lifting the ball more and stop hitting so many damn groundballs. I don't know if you want to tinker with his swing, but it feels like he should be way better. He also seems like a good defensive 1B, but the defensive metrics disagree. He's also a good athlete so he should age better than most 1B. It's too long a deal and I doubt he opts-out, but I think Hosmer has some untapped potential if some hitting coach/instructor can get to it.

 

I think he is one of the most divisive players between what scouts think of him vs. what advanced analytics and quants think of him.

[Post Count Padder]

Haahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

/breathes

 

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[bcl412]

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.

 

According to Fangraphs, we got 8.9 fWAR from his last 3.5 years before before trading him to the Yankees.

 

The Soriano contract was fine, both at the time and how it turned out.

 

it turned out better than people generally seem to think, but it was still negative in value overall

 

at the time it happened, i definitely had a bittersweet feeling about it. i was excited that we signed the best player out there to a big contract but i was also pretty annoyed that we didn't decide to throw all that money around when there was a better free agent class. soriano was the type of player i begrudgingly liked despite an approach at the plate that was everything i learned to dislike in a baseball player. he was so talented that he was still productive despite his allergy to working counts and walking (i think he did have a year or two where he wasn't so bad in this regard). and we got two division titles out of it.

 

Soriano hot streaks were one of my favorite baseball things

[PackLandVA]

Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

Damn, I forgot that was Duke's name. Good summation Duke.

 

So I guess this means Hosmer wins the NL MVP the next couple of years, right??

[CubinNY]

I don't think it's a terrible deal if they can actually get him to start lifting the ball more and stop hitting so many damn groundballs. I don't know if you want to tinker with his swing, but it feels like he should be way better. He also seems like a good defensive 1B, but the defensive metrics disagree. He's also a good athlete so he should age better than most 1B. It's too long a deal and I doubt he opts-out, but I think Hosmer has some untapped potential if some hitting coach/instructor can get to it.

 

I think he is one of the most divisive players between what scouts think of him vs. what advanced analytics and quants think of him.

Don’t ya think he would’ve done that already?

[David]

I don't think it's a terrible deal if they can actually get him to start lifting the ball more and stop hitting so many damn groundballs. I don't know if you want to tinker with his swing, but it feels like he should be way better. He also seems like a good defensive 1B, but the defensive metrics disagree. He's also a good athlete so he should age better than most 1B. It's too long a deal and I doubt he opts-out, but I think Hosmer has some untapped potential if some hitting coach/instructor can get to it.

 

I think he is one of the most divisive players between what scouts think of him vs. what advanced analytics and quants think of him.

Don’t ya think he would’ve done that already?

Maybe he's another yonder Alonso who just needs to realize hitting the ball in the air is a good idea. I wouldn't bet $140 million or whatever on it tho