Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hated it until I saw 3 more years of control. Can someone confirm?

 

Yes, Quintana has a contract through next year and there are team options for 2019 and 2020. 8.85 million in 2018, 10.5 million in 2019, 11.5 million in 2020.

[sweetpeteman]

I'm actually surprised he only cost Eloy & Cease (the other two are throw-ins I hadn't even heard of).

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm okay with trading away Eloy + Cease. But I more like Quintana than love him.

Like the player, love the contract?

[Old Style]

[Rob]

I like the deal.

 

Eloy is a fascinating prospect, but he still carries a lot of risk. It's a lazy comp, but I've been worried he was going to end up more like Jorge Soler than somebody like Justin Upton. I think he's a bit over-hyped at the moment and we may have sold high.

 

Meanwhile, I think we bought low on Quintana. His ERA is inflated a bit this year, as he's allowing more walks and home runs. But while his Zone% is down a bit, his F-Strike% is up significantly, as is his swinging strike rate. Honestly, I think he's just pressing a bit to be a more conventional, strikeout-based "ace" since Chris Sale was traded. And the HRs just look flukey -- his Hard% is actually down from last year and his batted ball allowed profile hasn't changed aside from the uptick in HR/FB. If he can get back to being himself and see the bad HR luck disappear, this is a huge bargain.

 

Here's his rank in fWAR among qualified pitchers:

 

2014 - 10

2015 - 15

2016 - 10

2017 - 18

 

He's not the first name people think of when they think "ace." But his production speaks for itself. He's a top of the rotation guy under team control through 2020. Good deal for the Cubs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is also example 526 of the front office prioritizing durability when it comes to sinking significant assets in a SP.

 

Also another example of the front office moving early before the market takes away options or changes their price dramatically.

[UMFan83]

Am i the only one that's not a big fan of this trade? Maybe I just accepted the Cubs as a team that holds at the deadline and whatever happens happens but damn this guts our 2 top prospects. I was really hoping for Eloy to come up and take the place of someone in the current core that gets too expensive to retain in a few years (looking at the Schwarber, Happ, Russell, Javy group, obviously pay Rizzo and Bryant the moon)

 

I know its stupid to get attached to prospects, but I would have been more than fine with making a minor trade and holding until the offseason when the price might be cheaper.

 

That said 2.5 years of control is really nice for a really good pitcher. He will replace Jake after the season and we can use Jake's money to sign another really good starter. Now its up to the offense to start hitting like they are supposed to.

 

Also I read a passage in Verducci's book yesterday were theo talked about hating to gut the farm system to demand 95+ win teams every year with the red sox and how he wanted to have a bridge year. Considering we're under .500 and 5 games behind a playoff spot in the loss column i wouldnt have minded this being a bridge year for the Cubs.

Edited July 13, 2017 by UMFan83

[mul21]

Why are the FIP and xFip so high this year? Is it the increased walks and HR rate?

[imb]

This trade owns

[Andy]

This kind of move is exactly why we stockpiled so many assets during the tank years. I really like it. Hate to lose Eloy, but penciling in a pretty good arm into the rotation through '20 at low cost is completely worth it.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Talk me off the ledge guys

[Andy]

Am i the only one that's not a big fan of this trade? Maybe I just accepted the Cubs as a team that holds at the deadline and whatever happens happens but damn this guts our 2 top prospects. I was really hoping for Eloy to come up and take the place of someone in the current core that gets too expensive to retain in a few years (looking at the Schwarber, Happ, Russell, Javy group, obviously pay Rizzo and Bryant the moon)

 

I know its stupid to get attached to prospects, but I would have been more than fine with making a minor trade and holding until the offseason when the price might be cheaper.

 

That said 2.5 years of control is really nice for a really good pitcher. He will replace Jake after the season and we can use Jake's money to sign another really good starter. Now its up to the offense to start hitting like they are supposed to.

 

Also I read a passage in Verducci's book yesterday were theo talked about hating to gut the farm system to demand 95+ win teams every year with the red sox and how he wanted to have a bridge year. Considering we're under .500 and 5 games behind a playoff spot in the loss column i wouldnt have minded this being a bridge year for the Cubs.

It's 3.5 years, not 2.5. I think this move is just as much about 2018-20 as it is about 2017 (I promise I wrote that before I saw Len tweeted the exact same thing), but the beauty of it is it makes us a hell of a lot better in 2017, too.

 

I'll be even more excited if this comes with a Lackey DFA.

Edited July 13, 2017 by Andy

[minnesotacubsfan]

Talk me off the ledge guys

[BigSlick]

It's cool to have something to be excited about watching the 2017 Cubs again

[UMFan83]

Also I remember sitting on a park bench reading about the Cubs signing Torres and Eloy way back when they were minors and getting excited. We've developed them into the number 3 and 5 prospects in baseball so its sad to let them go. I wouldn't take back the Chapman trade for anything because I don't think we win it without him, and hopefully I will feel the same way about this trade when all is said and done.

 

All the smarts here seem to like the deal so I guess I'll go along with it

[UMFan83]

Lester

Quintana

Hendricks

Arrieta

Lackey/Anderson

 

Not bad. Arrieta is probably on par with Lackey last season, Quintana is on par with Arrieta last season. Now we just need Hendricks and Lester to do reasonable impressions of their 2016 selves and we're golden.

[sneakypower]

I DO love though that we have Quintana through 2020, and the secondary pieces in the deal are basically roster filler. So we can still trade Jeimer and Zagunis and Almora/Happ for another piece before the deadline.

 

What does this make our top 10 look like now?

[imb]

Another lefty SP to throw at the dodgers if we ever get good again

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Am i the only one that's not a big fan of this trade? Maybe I just accepted the Cubs as a team that holds at the deadline and whatever happens happens but damn this guts our 2 top prospects. I was really hoping for Eloy to come up and take the place of someone in the current core that gets too expensive to retain in a few years (looking at the Schwarber, Happ, Russell, Javy group, obviously pay Rizzo and Bryant the moon)

 

I know its stupid to get attached to prospects, but I would have been more than fine with making a minor trade and holding until the offseason when the price might be cheaper.

 

That said 2.5 years of control is really nice for a really good pitcher. He will replace Jake after the season and we can use Jake's money to sign another really good starter. Now its up to the offense to start hitting like they are supposed to.

 

Also I read a passage in Verducci's book yesterday were theo talked about hating to gut the farm system to demand 95+ win teams every year with the red sox and how he wanted to have a bridge year. Considering we're under .500 and 5 games behind a playoff spot in the loss column i wouldnt have minded this being a bridge year for the Cubs.

 

There are only so many seasons with Rizzo and Bryant both healthy and producing at a high level, plus guys like Russell, Contreras, Baez, etc. on cheap deals, I would not be okay with shying away from a significant addition just because the first half was a little disappointing. They still have 62% odds of winning the division.

 

Also it's 3.5 years of control for Quintana, he makes future offseasons much easier to manage. FA's and teams would have a lot of leverage if the Cubs needed to add 2-3 SP in one offseason, now it's potentially only 1 if they like Montgomery(or Butler).

[UMFan83]

So Arrieta and Lackey make about $31m this year and will be off the books.

 

Quintana will make ~10m a year each of the next 3 years. Obviously we'd still need to fill a rotation spot but thats $21m in surplus funds for.....Harper?

[UMFan83]

Another lefty SP to throw at the dodgers if we ever get good again

 

hate to break it to you but the Dodgers have actually hit lefties significantly better than righties this year

 

.819 OPS against lefties, .776 OPS against righties

[sneakypower]

feels like this is also driven by acceptance that Heyward is here forever and Eloy won't really have a clear opening (if they believe so strongly in Schwarber like writers suggest)

[UMFan83]

Am i the only one that's not a big fan of this trade? Maybe I just accepted the Cubs as a team that holds at the deadline and whatever happens happens but damn this guts our 2 top prospects. I was really hoping for Eloy to come up and take the place of someone in the current core that gets too expensive to retain in a few years (looking at the Schwarber, Happ, Russell, Javy group, obviously pay Rizzo and Bryant the moon)

 

I know its stupid to get attached to prospects, but I would have been more than fine with making a minor trade and holding until the offseason when the price might be cheaper.

 

That said 2.5 years of control is really nice for a really good pitcher. He will replace Jake after the season and we can use Jake's money to sign another really good starter. Now its up to the offense to start hitting like they are supposed to.

 

Also I read a passage in Verducci's book yesterday were theo talked about hating to gut the farm system to demand 95+ win teams every year with the red sox and how he wanted to have a bridge year. Considering we're under .500 and 5 games behind a playoff spot in the loss column i wouldnt have minded this being a bridge year for the Cubs.

 

There are only so many seasons with Rizzo and Bryant both healthy and producing at a high level, plus guys like Russell, Contreras, Baez, etc. on cheap deals, I would not be okay with shying away from a significant addition just because the first half was a little disappointing. They still have 62% odds of winning the division.

 

Also it's 3.5 years of control for Quintana, he makes future offseasons much easier to manage. FA's and teams would have a lot of leverage if the Cubs needed to add 2-3 SP in one offseason, now it's potentially only 1 if they like Montgomery(or Butler).

 

I am talking myself into the logic behind the trade as it sinks in. I guess it was just the initial shock of seeing Eloy and Cease both go but it makes sense. I just don't want to get into the position where we have to spend money in FA to improve our team because there is nothing left in the farm. But this seems like a reasonable long term type of move.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Am i the only one that's not a big fan of this trade? Maybe I just accepted the Cubs as a team that holds at the deadline and whatever happens happens but damn this guts our 2 top prospects. I was really hoping for Eloy to come up and take the place of someone in the current core that gets too expensive to retain in a few years (looking at the Schwarber, Happ, Russell, Javy group, obviously pay Rizzo and Bryant the moon)

 

I know its stupid to get attached to prospects, but I would have been more than fine with making a minor trade and holding until the offseason when the price might be cheaper.

 

That said 2.5 years of control is really nice for a really good pitcher. He will replace Jake after the season and we can use Jake's money to sign another really good starter. Now its up to the offense to start hitting like they are supposed to.

 

Also I read a passage in Verducci's book yesterday were theo talked about hating to gut the farm system to demand 95+ win teams every year with the red sox and how he wanted to have a bridge year. Considering we're under .500 and 5 games behind a playoff spot in the loss column i wouldnt have minded this being a bridge year for the Cubs.

 

While trading Eloy eliminates a source of cheap offensive production, penciling in Quintana at his stupidly cheap salaries adds a source of cheap pitching production (to go along with Hendricks and Monty) for the next few years. That gives a bit more flexibility to play with in the upcoming offseasons, not being forced to pay big bucks for 2 post-prime starting pitchers. I was extremely considered about the long term starting pitching outlook, and now that concern is almost completely gone.

 

Also, as much as I like Cease, I feel next to no regret giving him up. Given the health history, the range of possibilities of what he can eventually become is so wide that I just can't get myself to care about losing him. Losing Eloy is sad because I really loved him as a prospect, but the more I think about it, the more I really like this deal.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Talk me off the ledge guys

 

No real need for Eloy when we sign Bryce after next year