Send Schwarber Down!!

[Tim]

Two of the five biggest comps through age 23 for Fulmer:

 

Rick Reuschel

Mike Harkey

 

One of those would be an awesome outcome.

I would be willing to trade in our large adult son for a reincarnation of the round mound

 

http://www.nagelphotography.com/img/s/v-3/p710982571-4.jpg

why on earth is Glenn Nagel Photography abbreviated as GPN?

[jersey cubs fan]

Two of the five biggest comps through age 23 for Fulmer:

 

Rick Reuschel

Mike Harkey

 

One of those would be an awesome outcome.

I would be willing to trade in our large adult son for a reincarnation of the round mound

 

http://www.nagelphotography.com/img/s/v-3/p710982571-4.jpg

why on earth is Glenn Nagel Photography abbreviated as GPN?

it was gnp until the black hole that used to be reuschel's chin put everything into disarray

[Thed Hoyerstein]

lol 6.5 k/9

hey now, he's an all star

 

get your game on, go play

[SouthSideRyan]

Fulmer has 43 starts at the MLB level(275 IP) and has been worth 6.1 fWAR, and his ERAs are better than the FIPs that power fWAR. The only thing he appears to be really, really good at is HR prevention so I get the skepticism, but even if you don't buy his 2017 that's still *5.5 years* of a guy who seems a pretty good bet to be a 3+ win pitcher.

I remember sneaky trying to convince me that Travis Wood was really, really good at HR prevention. I'm still skeptical that it is a long-term skill instead of simple variance.

 

Are you saying it isn't a long-term skill for anyone, or just that his doesn't align with his K/BB? Additionally, he is 5th in the AL at BB/9 this year, with his ERA just barely outperforming his FIP this year. He had an anemic HR rate in the minors as well.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fulmer has 43 starts at the MLB level(275 IP) and has been worth 6.1 fWAR, and his ERAs are better than the FIPs that power fWAR. The only thing he appears to be really, really good at is HR prevention so I get the skepticism, but even if you don't buy his 2017 that's still *5.5 years* of a guy who seems a pretty good bet to be a 3+ win pitcher.

I remember sneaky trying to convince me that Travis Wood was really, really good at HR prevention. I'm still skeptical that it is a long-term skill instead of simple variance.

 

That's fine, his HR prevention wasn't this good last year either. But even if you just consider his 2017 an extension of his 2016 performance(in 2017 he's been better in most areas), that's a guy who had 3.0 fWAR in 26 starts(3.7 per 32 starts), and would likely see improvement from AL to NL, better framing catchers in front of him, and better defense behind him. And you'd have him for 5+ years. I wouldn't expect Fulmer to be a guy who starts Game 1 of a playoff series, but that's not all that necessary today either. Plus he doesn't have much financial cost so you can pay Darvish 4/120 or whatever to give you some upside, plus potentially sway Otani this year or next, etc.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

even if you don't buy his 2017 that's still *5.5 years* of a guy who seems a pretty good bet to be a 3+ win pitcher.

 

and since he's a pitcher that's roughly 3.25 usable years.

which is about 2.6 more than Schwarber

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Guys that rely on elite home run suppression scare me a lot, too. Just to throw Matt Cain out there as an example, when that goes, things can get ugly quickly. I'd much prefer a high strikeout guy, who, when he loses a little from what makes him great, goes from a 10 K/9 guy to a 9 K/9 guy. HR/FB seems a little different to me. It's so unstable, because it's a small amount of events each season. And huge spikes in it seem a lot more probable.

 

That being said, I do think it is a skill. And I do think it is one Fulmer possesses. He's very Hendricks-like with his batted ball profile. High GB%. And when the ball is hit in the air, it is at a higher launch angle than other ground ball pitchers, and it is at a low exit velocity. And he gets a lot of pop ups. I think he is a legit soft contact guy.

 

I do think his HR rate this year is a bit of an anomaly. But I also think he should be able to suppress homers and BABIP going forward. I think he'll have a lower FIP than xFIP and a lower ERA than FIP. And I think he can continue doing so for a while.

 

He does possess an a elite ability to limit walks, too. And his strikeout rate isn't quite in Ivan Nova territory.

 

Going back to Matt Cain, he was able to maintain his elite home run suppression for quite a while, and I think Fulmer is better than him. Plus, Fulmer is throwing 96. He's not teetering on the edge at 92, like Cain was. Buying in on Fulmer at 24 seems like a safe bet that you can get him at his best for a while.

 

And, like TT said, he's been doing this in the AL. Give him a bump by moving to the NL, and give him a better defense and better pitch framing, and he could lose some of that hard contact suppression and still be really good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

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[Sammy Sofa]

"Brief demotion to Triple A" is the only honest part of that statement.

[17 Seconds]

i'd be completely shocked if they were ready to give up on schwarber

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

Seems like a good time to check in on everyone's favorite AAA player.

 

Good Schwarber ('15) HRs:

 

http://i.imgur.com/yuDpkrV.png

 

Average spray angle of 8 degrees (center = 0, right foul line = 45), wRC+ = 132.

 

In other words, he's at his best when he's using the whole field.

 

Bad Schwarber, April and May '17 HRs:

 

http://i.imgur.com/QMWOZEo.png

 

Average spray angle of 25 degrees, wRC+ = 65.

 

Since June 1:

 

http://i.imgur.com/VWPmMgY.png

 

Average spray angle of a whopping 1 degree, wRC+ = 139.

 

Small sample and all, but I'm guessing this was a big part of the approach changes the FO was looking for.

[Derwood]

LOL, look who started this thread

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

I don't know, he's got twos of accounts agreeing with him. You think that kind of support is just made up?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm tired of his 0-4, BB, 2K games....need him to get right against AAA pitching for 3-4 weeks and reset, come back up with confidence to rake the rest of the season. We don't need his bat to win games now but we will in October. It makes sense on too many levels as sad as it may be

 

http://media3.giphy.com/media/JVZpeVdN7lhCw/200.gif

lol

[KBMJ23]

Seems like a good time to check in on everyone's favorite AAA player.

 

Good Schwarber ('15) HRs:

 

http://i.imgur.com/yuDpkrV.png

 

Average spray angle of 8 degrees (center = 0, right foul line = 45), wRC+ = 132.

 

In other words, he's at his best when he's using the whole field.

 

Bad Schwarber, April and May '17 HRs:

 

http://i.imgur.com/QMWOZEo.png

 

Average spray angle of 25 degrees, wRC+ = 65.

 

Since June 1:

 

http://i.imgur.com/VWPmMgY.png

 

Average spray angle of a whopping 1 degree, wRC+ = 139.

 

Small sample and all, but I'm guessing this was a big part of the approach changes the FO was looking for.

 

I think his goal should be to always think pull over the 2B on grounders and liners, opposite field on fly balls. He definitely has a long way to go against LHP. Wonder how long that progression will ultimately take. Don't see a viable, healthy long-term outcome if he struggles a ton against lefties. It actually may work out this season cause everyone else absolutely destroyed lefties on the team (Almora and Báez vs. LHP are totally different players!)

[Cubswin11]

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[FlyTheW]

Outside of the White Sox barrage, he has improved very slightly since getting called up. I'm willing to give him a full offseason to get going but Schwarber might just not be good at baseball.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Outside of the White Sox barrage, he has improved very slightly since getting called up. I'm willing to give him a full offseason to get going but Schwarber might just not be good at baseball.

 

.258/.338/.561 since being called back up.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yes, if you exclude the best games in a 20 game stretch because reasons, that 15 game line will look worse. Even if you inexplicably exclude the White Sox series, his OPS is like .785. Schwarber is getting shielded because he's being platooned at the moment, but the idea that he hasn't been good since coming back is hilarious.

[jersey cubs fan]

Outside of the White Sox barrage, he has improved very slightly since getting called up. I'm willing to give him a full offseason to get going but Schwarber might just not be good at baseball.

 

.258/.338/.561 since being called back up.

BUT OTHER THAN THAT!!!!!!

[mul21]

Outside of the White Sox barrage, he has improved very slightly since getting called up. I'm willing to give him a full offseason to get going but Schwarber might just not be good at baseball.

 

.258/.338/.561 since being called back up.

 

Come on Duke, he's not even OPSing .900!!!111!!!

[BigSlick]

Hahaha, Schwarber is now OPSing .747 with a .195 batting average. He's trying to do all he can to be a valuable hitter while being under the Mendoza line.

 

However a .747 OPS is only a 92 OPS+ this year, which shows you just how much the juiced ball has affected the run environment. Just 3-4 years ago, a 100 OPS+ was about .700. And 5-6 years before that a 100 OPS+ was damn near .800. The baseball run environment has changed violently over the past 10 years.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Outside of the White Sox barrage, he has improved very slightly since getting called up. I'm willing to give him a full offseason to get going but Schwarber might just not be good at baseball.

 

.258/.338/.561 since being called back up.

 

.286/.412/.786 since this post. FlyTheW is the anti-Duke. Looks like we'll have to recruit someone else for the club, Sofa.

[d_money]

If there was a choice between the 2, I'm in the Eloy camp. Long term, I think Hoyerstein will wish they traded Schwarber instead of Eloy.

[FlyTheW]

Outside of the White Sox barrage, he has improved very slightly since getting called up. I'm willing to give him a full offseason to get going but Schwarber might just not be good at baseball.

 

.258/.338/.561 since being called back up.

 

.286/.412/.786 since this post. FlyTheW is the anti-Duke. Looks like we'll have to recruit someone else for the club, Sofa.

I don't really care about his platoon-protected numbers. He hasn't been good at all.