Starting Pitching candidates

[Cubswin11]

[champaignchris]

The Brewers have already signed Gallardo and Chacin. I would have thought that took them out of the race for any of the higher tier pitchers.

[We Got The Whole 9]

There are a lot of threads and twitter links I'm not going to peruse to see whether this news was posted already or not

 

But Mark Prior has apparently been hired as the Dodgers bullpen coach

[Cubswin11]

I wonder if we are trying to do something like 3/70 (~$23 aav) with Arrieta or Darvish with it being broken down 25/25/20 first 3 years and opt out after next year with a ~$5 mil buyout. Give both a solid base if they want it but potential to get more entering a more spend friendly market next offseason and get their $30 mil at worst for this season.

[davell]

I wonder if we are trying to do something like 3/70 (~$23 aav) with Arrieta or Darvish with it being broken down 25/25/20 first 3 years and opt out after next year with a ~$5 mil buyout. Give both a solid base if they want it but potential to get more entering a more spend friendly market next offseason and get their $30 mil at worst for this season.

 

Nightengale brought up 4/110 is what we're evidently OK with on Jake. Again, its Nightengale, so whatever.....

[Tryptamine]

I wonder if we are trying to do something like 3/70 (~$23 aav) with Arrieta or Darvish with it being broken down 25/25/20 first 3 years and opt out after next year with a ~$5 mil buyout. Give both a solid base if they want it but potential to get more entering a more spend friendly market next offseason and get their $30 mil at worst for this season.

 

Nightengale brought up 4/110 is what we're evidently OK with on Jake. Again, its Nightengale, so whatever.....

 

I am definitely not ok with 4/110 for Jake.

[CubsWin]

I wonder if we are trying to do something like 3/70 (~$23 aav) with Arrieta or Darvish with it being broken down 25/25/20 first 3 years and opt out after next year with a ~$5 mil buyout. Give both a solid base if they want it but potential to get more entering a more spend friendly market next offseason and get their $30 mil at worst for this season.

 

Nightengale brought up 4/110 is what we're evidently OK with on Jake. Again, its Nightengale, so whatever.....

 

I am definitely not ok with 4/110 for Jake.

It's certainly not my first choice nor would I feel good about a signing like that (more a fair but risky signing feeling), but it would make the Cubs strong World Series contenders for the next two years at least. Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks, Lester and Chatwood. That's a pretty darn good rotation.

 

That said, my first choice is a trade, but the waters are pretty murky on that front.

[treebird]

i am generally terrified of arrieta going forward and am not really interested in him at any amount he might possibly accept.

[CubsWin]

There are absolutely no rumors involving Julio Teheran so I don't have any idea of Atlanta's willingness to move him (although no rumors have never been an indication one way or another for this stealthy front office), but I'd love to get him.

 

He's coming off a down year (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) but he's one of the most reliable pitchers when it comes to providing innings, has 3 years left on his contract (his age 27-29 seasons) and the Braves match up well as trade partners considering their excess depth of pitching and the Cubs excess depth of hitting. While his performance has fluctuated a bit in his pre-prime years, he had a 3.2 fWAR in his age 23 and 25 seasons.

 

As with all trade discussions, it's completely dependent upon the asking price (which is impossible to gauge at this point), but the Braves just added to pitchers (Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy) to their roster. Kazmir might not pitch at all if his hip isn't healthy and if he does he may come out of the bullpen. McCarthy is notoriously injury prone but if he is healthy he will be in their rotation. More importantly, the Braves already have 6 young starters who started for them last season. Teheran, Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Luis Gohara and Max Fried. Of those, Teheran is the oldest and by far the most expensive with $31 million left on his contract.

 

On top of their depth of young pitching at the major league level, the Braves have incredible depth in the minors as well. Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Joey Wentz would all instantly be the Cubs top pitching prospect by far. Beyond those, Kyle Muller, Touki Toussaint and to a lesser extent Patrick Weigel, Bryce Wilson and lefty reliever AJ Minter would makes nice additions if possible. The point is they have tremendous depth and might be more willing than other teams to part with young pitching as a result.

 

They could certainly use a player like Ian Happ and a C like Victor Caratini. They have two catchers in their 30s under contract for one more season and the only C prospect of note they have is Drew Jackson who is below average behind the plate and no lock to hit at the major league level. He'll start this year in AA.

 

They also lost their top IFA signings and are barred from signing any significant ones for the next few years. So some of the Cubs lower level players like Aramis Ademan might have more value to them than most other teams.

 

If a package of Happ, Caratini, Ademan (plus?) can bring back Teheran, one of their starting pitching prospects and AJ Minter, I'm down.

[imb]

Cubs fans would turn on Teheran by mid-May

[Have a seat, Neifi]

i am generally terrified of arrieta going forward and am not really interested in him at any amount he might possibly accept.

Me too. I spent about 15 minutes on his FanGraphs page with my admittedly (very) layman's eyes and came away utterly terrified at giving him $25 million+ based on the general trend in some of his metrics over the past 3 years.

[weis21]

thought this was interesting over at bleacher nation, though it may be common sense for many of you. basically, it just goes over draft implications and looks at picks over the past several years in the range for the cubs this year. also, delves in the IFA bonus pool considerations.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/04/how-much-should-cubs-consider-draft-related-consequences-of-signing-arrieta-darvish-or-cobb/

[weis21]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Thusly Boned]

 

Well, then he can bugger right the horsefeathers off.

[Bertz]

 

I'd buy this. ZiPS pegged him at 3/39 IIRC. I expect that some team will cave and give him a fourth year, but probably not until they've lost out on Darvish. I still think 4/60 is his ceiling.

[Post Count Padder]

The market has been so slow to develop that I could see why Cobb would decline that and hope someone offers more money and/or years. That said, I would still like him if he's willing to come down off his asking price.

 

I don't know who said it here but I am expecting there to be a few random days in January where a bunch of deals go down. Pitchers and catchers report in 40 ish days. Free agents don't have that much longer to wait if they want to be in uniform on day 1.

[Cubswin11]

Pitchers and catchers report in 40 ish days. Free agents don't have that much longer to wait if they want to be in uniform on day 1.

It has to be sooner than that. Our first Spring Training game is 7 weeks from today (Feb 23) vs the Brewers. We have to be like 20-30 days away from Pitchers and Catchers.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Bobson Dugnutt]

re: Cobb. i lost interest in him when we first heard of the $20 million aav demands, but now even if his price comes back down, i can't help but feel let down if that's who we end up with after being connected to darvish, machado, yelich and i guess throw jake in there too.

[Post Count Padder]

There are absolutely no rumors involving Julio Teheran so I don't have any idea of Atlanta's willingness to move him (although no rumors have never been an indication one way or another for this stealthy front office), but I'd love to get him.

 

He's coming off a down year (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) but he's one of the most reliable pitchers when it comes to providing innings, has 3 years left on his contract (his age 27-29 seasons) and the Braves match up well as trade partners considering their excess depth of pitching and the Cubs excess depth of hitting. While his performance has fluctuated a bit in his pre-prime years, he had a 3.2 fWAR in his age 23 and 25 seasons.

 

As with all trade discussions, it's completely dependent upon the asking price (which is impossible to gauge at this point), but the Braves just added to pitchers (Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy) to their roster. Kazmir might not pitch at all if his hip isn't healthy and if he does he may come out of the bullpen. McCarthy is notoriously injury prone but if he is healthy he will be in their rotation. More importantly, the Braves already have 6 young starters who started for them last season. Teheran, Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Luis Gohara and Max Fried. Of those, Teheran is the oldest and by far the most expensive with $31 million left on his contract.

 

On top of their depth of young pitching at the major league level, the Braves have incredible depth in the minors as well. Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Joey Wentz would all instantly be the Cubs top pitching prospect by far. Beyond those, Kyle Muller, Touki Toussaint and to a lesser extent Patrick Weigel, Bryce Wilson and lefty reliever AJ Minter would makes nice additions if possible. The point is they have tremendous depth and might be more willing than other teams to part with young pitching as a result.

 

They could certainly use a player like Ian Happ and a C like Victor Caratini. They have two catchers in their 30s under contract for one more season and the only C prospect of note they have is Drew Jackson who is below average behind the plate and no lock to hit at the major league level. He'll start this year in AA.

 

They also lost their top IFA signings and are barred from signing any significant ones for the next few years. So some of the Cubs lower level players like Aramis Ademan might have more value to them than most other teams.

 

If a package of Happ, Caratini, Ademan (plus?) can bring back Teheran, one of their starting pitching prospects and AJ Minter, I'm down.

I really like Foltynewicz but am meh on Teheran. A lot of his peripherals took a step back this year and his FIP was nearly 5. He's an interesting buy-low candidate for sure but I also don't think Atlanta would trade him for a small return and I'm not sure they would do a Marlins and sweeten the deal with a prospect.

[Cubswin11]

If a package of Happ, Caratini, Ademan (plus?) can bring back Teheran, one of their starting pitching prospects and AJ Minter, I'm down.

I'd rather overpay for Cobb or Lynn (let's just take Yu and Jake out of the equation) or even bargain shop and bring in 2-3 of guys like Hellickson, Bucholz, Feldman, Garcia, Vargas, Tillman, etc. to compete for the last rotation spot than give up that package for Teheran.

[CubsWin]

There are absolutely no rumors involving Julio Teheran so I don't have any idea of Atlanta's willingness to move him (although no rumors have never been an indication one way or another for this stealthy front office), but I'd love to get him.

 

He's coming off a down year (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) but he's one of the most reliable pitchers when it comes to providing innings, has 3 years left on his contract (his age 27-29 seasons) and the Braves match up well as trade partners considering their excess depth of pitching and the Cubs excess depth of hitting. While his performance has fluctuated a bit in his pre-prime years, he had a 3.2 fWAR in his age 23 and 25 seasons.

 

As with all trade discussions, it's completely dependent upon the asking price (which is impossible to gauge at this point), but the Braves just added to pitchers (Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy) to their roster. Kazmir might not pitch at all if his hip isn't healthy and if he does he may come out of the bullpen. McCarthy is notoriously injury prone but if he is healthy he will be in their rotation. More importantly, the Braves already have 6 young starters who started for them last season. Teheran, Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Luis Gohara and Max Fried. Of those, Teheran is the oldest and by far the most expensive with $31 million left on his contract.

 

On top of their depth of young pitching at the major league level, the Braves have incredible depth in the minors as well. Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Joey Wentz would all instantly be the Cubs top pitching prospect by far. Beyond those, Kyle Muller, Touki Toussaint and to a lesser extent Patrick Weigel, Bryce Wilson and lefty reliever AJ Minter would makes nice additions if possible. The point is they have tremendous depth and might be more willing than other teams to part with young pitching as a result.

 

They could certainly use a player like Ian Happ and a C like Victor Caratini. They have two catchers in their 30s under contract for one more season and the only C prospect of note they have is Drew Jackson who is below average behind the plate and no lock to hit at the major league level. He'll start this year in AA.

 

They also lost their top IFA signings and are barred from signing any significant ones for the next few years. So some of the Cubs lower level players like Aramis Ademan might have more value to them than most other teams.

 

If a package of Happ, Caratini, Ademan (plus?) can bring back Teheran, one of their starting pitching prospects and AJ Minter, I'm down.

I really like Foltynewicz but am meh on Teheran. A lot of his peripherals took a step back this year and his FIP was nearly 5. He's an interesting buy-low candidate for sure but I also don't think Atlanta would trade him for a small return and I'm not sure they would do a Marlins and sweeten the deal with a prospect.

I'm alright if you think it's a bad idea (Teheran is a guy many people are divided on), and maybe I'm higher on Happ than you are, but how is Happ (a 23-year-old switch-hitter with some positional flexibility and 6 years of control left who slugged over .500 and posted a 1.8 fWAR in just 115 games in his rookie season, Caratini who the Braves having a glaring need for, Ademan (arguably the Cubs best prospect) plus others a "small return" for a buy low candidate?

[CubsWin]

If a package of Happ, Caratini, Ademan (plus?) can bring back Teheran, one of their starting pitching prospects and AJ Minter, I'm down.

I'd rather overpay for Cobb or Lynn (let's just take Yu and Jake out of the equation) or even bargain shop and bring in 2-3 of guys like Hellickson, Bucholz, Feldman, Garcia, Vargas, Tillman, etc. to compete for the last rotation spot than give up that package for Teheran.

I get that line of thinking. For me the appeal is getting a top notch pitching prospect PLUS a guy like Teheran.

 

If Teheran reverts to his 3 WAR years (just one year removed), you've won the deal. If he doesn't, he's a consistent, non-terrible innings eater with no injury history in his age 27-29 years at the back end of your rotation at an affordable price. And in my eyes, the Cubs greatest need moving forward is a top 50 type pitching prospect that's a year or two away from the majors. That piece could/would enable them to add a piece like Harper and possibly get back under the luxury tax cap to reset it in the near future.

[CubinNY]

I hate when Cubswin and Cubswin11 post back and forth for several posts uninterrupted. I keep forgetting who’s making what point.

[treebird]

I hate when Cubswin and Cubswin11 post back and forth for several posts uninterrupted. I keep forgetting who’s making what point.

 

If you guys are into it I can probably make a really good post in between each of their posts.

 

no

[toonsterwu]

Honestly, at this point, it's just wait out the market. If Cobb is asking 4/70 (honestly, I'm not that averse to that if that was the proposed endgame several months ago, but he'll probably come down now), we might as well just wait. 3/42 was never going to get Cobb, and I hate the idea of 4 with 25 AAV for Arrieta. If he's asking 4/70 now, wouldn't surprise me if Cobb dropped below 4/60, at which point, okay. Anything around that is okay.

 

Trade market is probably going to stall unless the starters fall quick, and at that point, it'll be really late in the process, as slow as this off-season has been.