Starting Pitching candidates

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've got no idea on where they go from a bullpen standpoint, but my GUESS is they're not going to be in on Davis, unless its short term. Based on Theo's comments about finding guys that don't walk people.....I'll say we get Addison Reed. Maybe 3/30 or so? I've seen him projected at up to 4/32. I kind of suspect he'll get a bit more than that personally. And I think they'll get Neshek at 2/18 or so. Then add a lefty on a one year deal. Duensing maybe, maybe Boone Logan, maybe Zach Duke....

 

I have to think Davis is an option if only because he's the most surefire FA option(along with the validation that the FO traded for him and he had a great year). The last 18 months or so have illustrated the value they place in having a lockdown closer at the end of the pen, and while there are paths to that outcome that don't include huge outlays, I don't think they're going to gamble on depth surfacing a great option. The stakes are too high for this group to leave that to chance if they can help it. They've already traded for that guy once and they could again(I mentioned Hand, but there's other options of varying quality like Robertson, Herrera, Colome, maybe Britton/Brach) so Davis isn't even the most likely option, but I have to think he's very seriously being considered.

[Cubswin11]

I've got no idea on where they go from a bullpen standpoint, but my GUESS is they're not going to be in on Davis, unless its short term. Based on Theo's comments about finding guys that don't walk people.....I'll say we get Addison Reed. Maybe 3/30 or so? I've seen him projected at up to 4/32. I kind of suspect he'll get a bit more than that personally. And I think they'll get Neshek at 2/18 or so. Then add a lefty on a one year deal. Duensing maybe, maybe Boone Logan, maybe Zach Duke....

 

I have to think Davis is an option if only because he's the most surefire FA option(along with the validation that the FO traded for him and he had a great year). The last 18 months or so have illustrated the value they place in having a lockdown closer at the end of the pen, and while there are paths to that outcome that don't include huge outlays, I don't think they're going to gamble on depth surfacing a great option. The stakes are too high for this group to leave that to chance if they can help it. They've already traded for that guy once and they could again(I mentioned Hand, but there's other options of varying quality like Robertson, Herrera, Colome, maybe Britton/Brach) so Davis isn't even the most likely option, but I have to think he's very seriously being considered.

I agree you can’t risk it by trying to find next years Morrow, Swarzak, etc. because you’re going to fail more times than not going that route and we can’t do that in the window we are in. I’m very much in the camp of bringing Davis back. Having a known commodity at the back end is huge and he’s the clear best FA option, imo. Barring some ridiculous contract (more than 4 years and 70 mil) I’m all for bringing him back.

[Bertz]

Any interest in Matt Harvey as our second SP acquisition? He was legit terrible this year, not just a victim of BABIP nonsense, but the velocity is still quite good and he'd be another year further out from his surgeries. Strikes me as a good change of scenery guy, especially entering his walk year.

 

The Mets have needs basically everywhere but 1B, SS, and whichever outfield corner they stick Yoenis, so it should be easy to match up with them.

[Cubswin11]

Any interest in Matt Harvey as our second SP acquisition? He was legit terrible this year, not just a victim of BABIP nonsense, but the velocity is still quite good and he'd be another year further out from his surgeries. Strikes me as a good change of scenery guy, especially entering his walk year.

 

The Mets have needs basically everywhere but 1B, SS, and whichever outfield corner they stick Yoenis, so it should be easy to match up with them.

I want little to no part of any pitcher from that god forsaken pitching staff. Especially one who had that thoracic outlet surgery. He’d have to be essentially free and even then we better have backup options and he shouldn’t be counted on.

[davell]

I've thought about Harvey, but I wonder if the Mets would give him away? If not, I'd definitely want no part of him. Its sad to say, based on what he was, but I think we'll get 2 guys considerably better than him this off season.

[Bote McBoteface]

Id take Harvey for free but id take almost anything that used to be good for free. Id say no if i had ever heard of the prospect we were trading away.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

There's going to be a disconnect between what Harvey should be valued at and what the Mets will want for him given his name reputation. I can't see him being traded this offseason.

[toonsterwu]

Almora would seem to make sense there, they need a CF and think they have said they want to get better on defense. Don’t know if he’s enough but at least a likely starting point. Secondly, does Tyler Beede have any value anymore? He could be a nice second/third SP added this offseason.

 

It really comes down to how much they want to move his contract, and if they are rebuilding. If they are in rebuild mode, I could actually see starting a package with Happ as possibly a decent starting point (not suggesting Happ alone, as Shark would likely get a nice return for them). The only problem, in hypothetical scenarios, with offering OF's is that they are loaded with OF's that are close (Slater - sorta their version of Happ/Reynolds/Duggar/Shaw - should be at first). Almora might hold more intrigue in that regards, as he's clearly better CF than almost all their close guys, with the exception of maybe Duggar.

 

 

You think Shark brings back MORE than just Happ? I don't think theres any way we'd deal Happ straight up for Shark, much less give up more. He's making almost 20 mill a year. He's solid, but he's not an upper echelon pitcher either. If he's available, I can't imagine him bringing back a huge return, unless its to a team that needs his contract paid down heavily, which we don't. I don't think we'd even deal Almora for him. A deal starting with Alzolay, with another guy or two from our top 10(even with our system being down) should be plenty to get Shark. If not, then no thanks. Move on to the next.

 

I'm not suggesting we make a trade for Shark. I'm not ruling it out either, but in general, I think the package for Shark would take yes ... something more than Happ. Maybe Happ straight up. If you are asking if I would personally move Happ for Samardzija this winter, I would say I would definitely consider it (obviously, everything depends on market). That said, there's moves now, in our window, that the Cubs would not do otherwise, and yes, when considering this environment for the Cubs, I would probably consider it. If you are asking if I think the Cubs might consider it ... I think they would. I do. The window is now, and with their moves, they've shown they are going all-in on the window now.

 

Yes, I know the reasons not to, but pitching still costs, and consistent, productive, innings-eating pitching still costs. Jeff Samardzija only has 3 years left, which will likely be a nice thing compared to some FA's possibly getting 4 years. He's been reliable - 6 straight years of 200+ IP's. Yes, he's not a TOR starter, but an innings-eating middle-of-the-rotation arm is still very valuable ... and arguably, in this environment, with the usage of the pens ... perhaps even more valuable that you can turn to a starter to give you reliable innings every 5 days. Command is still strong, velocity is still there.

 

There isn't really a good comparable trade to look at from recent winters. We can toss comparable trades around, and there will be plus and minuses to each argument (I could say, argue that Drew Smyly netted fairly decent return, but the flip side is that Ian Happ is a far more intriguing talent than anything acquired in that trade. Dan Straily looks to have netted a great package for the Reds ... but it was fair to at least question if Luis Castillo was that good when the trade was made.

 

*As an aside, I'm not sure I buy the Giants moving Shark (with the usual caveat of a trade that is too good to pass up would probably not be passed up), because I think they may feel like they don't need to rebuild. I think they may feel like with Bumgarner back, some tinkering in the rotation, and a bat or two, plus some luck, and they are probably in the mix of it again. If they go that route, I think they are at the end of that rope, but it could make some sense for them.

[davell]

Being reliable is a very good thing. 200 innings a year does matter. But, he's just not good enough to warrant giving up a 23 year old(22 most of the season)that's already OPS'd .842 in over 400 PA in the majors. His value is far more than the top 50ish prospect he went into 2017 as. He's produced at a higher level than was expected and after watching him, it should continue.

 

The Cubs(and others) can take a look at Cobb for the 4/48 or less it'll take to sign him, Lance Lynn at 4/60 or 5/75 and not give anything but money. Or look at the Chatwoods and other lesser pitchers that you conceivably could sign a pair for and get you those same 200 innings at very close to the same production level. And keep the young hitter that can likely be a lead piece for a much more interesting target than Shark.

 

I'm fine with trading for Shark, but he's not worth that kind of a return, at his contract especially. And we don't need it to be paid down.

[davell]

I'm sure the Braves or Phillies or someone is going to spend on Darvish. But, I seriously think the WS is going to keep the Dodgers away.

 

I've shied away from even mentioning the top end FA for us, but I'm very curious as to what his price tag winds up being now.

[toonsterwu]

I don't know how I became the Shark defender as I've never loved him ... I feel like people are missing what a strong year he had last year. He was arguably a top 20-ish SP in baseball last year. He's probably not going to get back to those 2012-2014 levels, as he's a bit of a different pitcher now (looks like far more breaking ball usage), but he was really, really solid last year, outside of that ERA. I mean, if you remove his 2015 ... he's been one of the better starting pitchers over the last half-decade, ERA-aside. Has he been an elite starter? Outside of 2014, which was perfect timing for us, not really, but he's been really, really good, and I think people have somehow overlooked that. Now granted, you can't just lop off a year ... 2015 still existed, and he's unlikely to reverse aging ... so yeah, again, I get why not, but to absolutely rule out Happ for a potential solid mid-rotation starter? I don't know. This is a very mediocre off-season to be searching for quality pitching, with few safe options. I mean, even the top options (Tanaka/Darvish) come with some levels of risk (Darvish moreso than Tanaka, IMO. In terms of production next year, I mean ... I'd probably take Tanaka and Darvish over Shark if I had to gamble, but the chances of Tanaka leaving NY are slim, and Darvish is probably taking a monster deal that ties you into his late 30's, and leaving aside the WS ... something was off about Darvish all-year it seemed.

 

If Cobb is closer to a 12 AAV, which I'm not expecting, then yes, I'd go with him. I don't expect it, tbh, as I think this market is bad enough someone is going to bite the bullet, provided medicals check out, and give him something say, around 4/60, if not more. Honestly, 5/75 ... I wouldn't rule out some team forking that over for him. There's enough desperate teams out there, and he represents a potential bounce back guy. Tbh, I wouldn't touch Lance Lynn. Wouldn't touch him. Even accounting for him working his way back and the fact that he's adjusting as he's aging ... that velocity drop bothers me. I just worry that Lynn's contract will end up being an albatross.

 

Edit: Anyhow, personally, I think this discussion is just another off-season discussion in that I really don't see the Giants moving him. I don't think they are ready to blow it up.

[davell]

Its the money he's still owed, in my mind. At 3/59, where's the excess value?(and I hate that term) By the way, I know you're not saying you're all in on getting Shark.

 

You may be right on Cobb's money, I was originally thinking the exact same as you. The market COULD see him get a huge deal. But, I'm listening to the MLBTR guys and Jeff Sullivan, who are projecting 4/48 and 3/36 respectively. Basing it on his injury history and the innings per year he's pitched. Using McCarthy as the highest anyone's ever gotta, that's comparable. We'll see. My very first inclination was 4/64, but hearing those guys thoughts has me thinking less now. Also, seeing teams current payrolls.....I just don't see lots of money being thrown around this off season.

 

Something else to at least consider with Shark.....He's underperformed his peripherals 4 of his 6 seasons starting and the other two years, they were basically in line. So, I wonder if some teams may look at him as a guy that's typically not going to pitch to his periphs? May be a reach, I'm not sure.....

 

I don't think the Giants are going to rebuild, but I do see them shuffling some things around. They could move him, just to reallocate some money in different areas. They're at 180 or so, payroll-wise already, and supposedly view Cain, as their big target. I've seen him projected at 4/76. Add that, subtract Shark, add a FA starter in the 10 range? No idea, just trying to figure out where they're headed.....They're not long from needing to blow things up.

[toonsterwu]

I just don't view the contract as a bad thing. Sure, the excess value might not be there, but it's 3 years. There aren't many MLB teams that can't take on that sort of contract (Marlins being the only one that comes to mind off the top). Avoiding the longer term exposure of some of the FA deals isn't the worst thing.

 

At the end of the day, you guys may be right, and I can see the argument for why Samardzija wouldn't net a Happ-ish return (whatever that equates to in other organizations). It's just ... I have a hard time seeing that Samardzija, at that contract, is netting a Dan Straily-esque return from last winter (a highly intriguing arm). Perhaps it ends up closer to say, the Sonny Gray trade where it's several high potential prospects in return (if a trade occurred).

 

I think, with the GIants, it may come down to Cueto. If he wasn't coming off a down year, I'd say he absolutely should opt out and go for more security, as Cueto would be a top arm in the market ... but coming off a poor year ... I don't know if he opts out with a decent deal remaining, 4/84 at a glance. If Cueto opts in, it's not hard to see them shop Samardzija to address other holes and clear up some money. (That said, with Cain's money off the books and a core whose window is rapidly closing, they might have a tiny bit of flexibility, so I guess an argument could be made that if Cueto opted in, they might keep the rotation as is and viewing Melancon's peripherals as a positive, plug the OF hole with a backloaded deal and give it a go). There are those strange Giancarlo Stanton rumors (I think it was basically Nightengale, though) with them, which I just don't see how that happens (unless they can pick up young talent in other trades to piece together a deal).

[Bull]

Shark doesn’t deserve to play for the good Cubs. /onlymostlyjoking

[Cubswin11]

Would something like Happ to the Braves for Folty and one of their minor league pitchers (they have so many) make sense/be fair?

[toonsterwu]

Would something like Happ to the Braves for Folty and one of their minor league pitchers (they have so many) make sense/be fair?

 

may be colored by the fact that i've never loved Foltyniewicz ... but I would hope that Happ gets moved in a deal for a higher impact starter.

 

In general, value wise, I would hope Happ could net that type of a trade.

[Cubswin11]

Darvish, Jake, Cobb and Lynn all just got a little more expensive most likely

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I wonder how bad his elbow is. Seemed like a no-brainer financially to opt out.

[Cubswin11]

I wonder how bad his elbow is. Seemed like a no-brainer financially to opt out.

I mean there is a tear in his elbow/arm, right? He’s just pitching through it/getting that injection?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tanaka is owed 3/67, was he really likely to do that much better? People are already lining up to be worried about Arrieta's performance and not giving him 9 figures and he's had much higher highs than Tanaka. He's much older so it's not a 1:1 comparison, but I do think elbow trouble and never demonstrating super high end performance would limit Tanaka's market substantially. No one who would pay him was going to view him as a TOR arm, and no one viewing him that way is gonna line up to give him 4/100 or 5/115.

[Cubswin11]

Tanaka is owed 3/67, was he really likely to do that much better? People are already lining up to be worried about Arrieta's performance and not giving him 9 figures and he's had much higher highs than Tanaka. He's much older so it's not a 1:1 comparison, but I do think elbow trouble and never demonstrating super high end performance would limit Tanaka's market substantially. No one who would pay him was going to view him as a TOR arm, and no one viewing him that way is gonna line up to give him 4/100 or 5/115.

Yeah I think the risk way outweighed the reward for him.

[JeffH]

Could also be that he wanted to remain a Yankee and they told him they wouldn't be involved in the bidding if he opted out.

[toonsterwu]

A bit surprised. Tanaka was probably in line for a big deal, or at least more security. A case could be made that he was the top arm on the market this winter, because ERA aside, he actually had a pretty decent year. I think Raisin is probably right to wonder on health here - it's hard to imagine he would've have gotten at least 4/100, if not more.

 

Now, JeffH's point is something to factor in - IIRC, there was talk that Tanaka simply wanted to be in New York,and that he felt like he "owed" the Yankees for this down season.

 

All that said, this is a big win for the Yankees in regards to getting below 197 million. This will give them a lot more flexibility, while also knowing that there's only 3 years remaining.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I wonder how bad his elbow is. Seemed like a no-brainer financially to opt out.

I mean there is a tear in his elbow/arm, right? He’s just pitching through it/getting that injection?

 

Partially torn UCL. He's pitched through it for a few seasons now, which I thought woukd allay some of the fears surrounding his elbow.

[Cubswin11]

 

All that said, this is a big win for the Yankees in regards to getting below 197 million. This will give them a lot more flexibility, while also knowing that there's only 3 years remaining.

How is this a big win for a team looking to cut payroll/get below the tax? He’s owed 22, 22 and 23 million the next 3 years.