Starting Pitching candidates

[toonsterwu]

More I think about it, the DIamondbacks really are a good match for us.

 

Our most likely trade chip - Ian Happ.

 

Diamodbacks likely need - Corner OF with some power (assuming they don't resign JD Martinez ... even if they did, they could still fit Happ in.)

 

Our most pressing need - SP.

 

Diamondbacks strongest area - SP, and specifically, of the most likely trade options for them (Corbin/Walker).

 

The problem is, their most likely trade candidate, if they do shop him, would be Patrick Corbin (with the idea that Shelby Miller might be back to slide into the 5th spot next year, and if not, they have some other options, perhaps giving Archie Bradley or Braden Shipley a look, amongst others) and Corbin is a FA after 2018. It'd be tough forking over Happ for that, so any trade might have to be expanded to succeed, which complicates things. Still, it makes a lot of sense for both sides, IMO, and an early strike would allow both organizations time and options in FA.

 

_____

 

I don't know that we match up all that well with what they might be looking for, but the Astros have pitching depth (with Verlander in the rotation, there's going to be an odd man out ... Verlander/Keuchel/McCullers/Peacock/Morton). I don't know if I particularly love Collin McHugh, but he's going to get more expensive and he seems the odd man out. Perhaps they use McHugh to try and replenish some system depth. I guess it's entirely possible they keep McHugh and move someone else.

[d_money]

More I think about it, the DIamondbacks really are a good match for us.

 

Our most likely trade chip - Ian Happ.

 

Diamodbacks likely need - Corner OF with some power (assuming they don't resign JD Martinez ... even if they did, they could still fit Happ in.)

 

Our most pressing need - SP.

 

Diamondbacks strongest area - SP, and specifically, of the most likely trade options for them (Corbin/Walker).

 

The problem is, their most likely trade candidate, if they do shop him, would be Patrick Corbin (with the idea that Shelby Miller might be back to slide into the 5th spot next year, and if not, they have some other options, perhaps giving Archie Bradley or Braden Shipley a look, amongst others) and Corbin is a FA after 2018. It'd be tough forking over Happ for that, so any trade might have to be expanded to succeed, which complicates things. Still, it makes a lot of sense for both sides, IMO, and an early strike would allow both organizations time and options in FA.

 

_____

 

I don't know that we match up all that well with what they might be looking for, but the Astros have pitching depth (with Verlander in the rotation, there's going to be an odd man out ... Verlander/Keuchel/McCullers/Peacock/Morton). I don't know if I particularly love Collin McHugh, but he's going to get more expensive and he seems the odd man out. Perhaps they use McHugh to try and replenish some system depth. I guess it's entirely possible they keep McHugh and move someone else.

 

I don't see the FO trading a player like Happ with 5 years of control for a 1 year rental in Corbin. Seal boy? Yes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Merged our two SP threads since they'll be talking about filling the same roles.

 

I've been trying to think through some buy-low style acquisitions, the idea being that there's some reason to hope they'll be worthwhile, and would have a cheap enough acquisition cost to allow for the best possible offseason elsewhere(spending on Darvish, creating a super bullpen, etc).

 

One theme with all of these options is that they continue with the Cubs' philosophy of wanting to control the strike zone. We know Bosio was canned at least in part for the inability for the relievers to throw strikes, all of the Cubs rotation stalwarts had sub-8% BB%, and I'd guess that's a big reason why they don't commit to Montgomery as a rotation option.

 

 

Chris Tillman

 

++ Tillman is only a year removed from 4 consecutive years of average pitching. He was horrifically bad this year, but his stuff didn't really deteriorate, and finally getting him away from Baltimore's pitching environment with the AL to NL bump too could help. He's a FA so he's certainly available and he won't be expensive.

 

-- Tillman was a nightmare in 2016 so you're taking a pretty huge gamble on him. His vertical release point has been in slow decline for a while and he missed some time with a shoulder injury this year, although you aren't hoping that Tillman is any sort of long term answer anyway.

 

 

Kendall Graveman

 

++ Graveman has been a pretty average pitcher on the mound the last couple years. Even in his best case scenario he's not really someone you anticipate starting a playoff game, so he's not likely to be super expensive in trade. He's under team control for 3 years and would get a lift from moving from AL to NL.

 

-- Graveman missed a big chunk of this year with a shoulder injury and his vertical release point looked the part too. The 3 years of team control don't mean much if he's about to go under the knife. He's super reliant on his defense because he doesn't strike out anyone even in this environment.

 

Jeremy Hellickson

 

++ Hellickson was a 3 win pitcher just a year ago, and there aren't any huge indicators that his stuff is falling off. He has the Maddon/Hickey connection from his work as a mostly average pitcher in Tampa. He has always done a good job of BABIP suppression, and he's a FA and not likely to be an expensive one.

 

-- Hellickson was terrible this year, his K rate fell, his HR rate spiked, and his ground ball rate fell. An optimist might see that as something mechanical that's fixable by working with old friend Hickey, a pessimist might see decline coming early for Hellickson since he's never had overwhelming stuff.

 

 

Jordan Zimmermann

 

++ Zimmermann is presumably still the same human being that put up 19 fWAR in 5 years for Washington. He's still only 31, and his 2017 was pretty fluky from a BABIP perspective considering his stuff wasn't any worse than it was in 2016. Getting back to the NL and possibly working with Hickey who might be able to get more out of his 4 seamer may help. Detroit would love to be out from his contract so the player cost would be basically nil.

 

-- Zimmermann's stuff isn't worse than it was in 2016, but it's definitely lost a tick from his Washington days, so even with the bad luck, you're talking about being similar to his 2016 which is still solidly below average even after considering AL/NL. His contract is also a huge albatross(3/74, 22M per towards luxury tax), so you'd have to make that more palatable in some way by getting another player of interest, getting money from Detroit, or trading Heyward/Zobrist.

 

Erasmo Ramirez

 

++ Ramirez was turned around with Hickey in Tampa and put in a solid 2016. His decline seems related to dropping his 4 seamer, which would also seem to correlate to some divergence in approach between Tampa and Hickey's preference. He has 3 years of team control, would get the AL to NL bump, and while he wasn't terrible in Seattle, he wasn't really above average and Jerry DiPoto loves his trades. He's also capably served as a swing man in the case he gets supplanted in the rotation

 

-- Ramirez hasn't held up to a full year's workload, which isn't the worst thing in a speculative 5th starter, but worth considering. He hasn't been super valuable, but the Mariners need pitching more than anything so getting rid of Ramirez probably isn't at the top of the todo list and might not be exorbitantly cheap.

[toonsterwu]

If the Astros were to deal a SP to the Cubs give me Musgrove.

 

I'd be fine about Musgrove (although don't love the fact that there's not much velocity differentiation for him), but he's cheap and controllable - they could push him to the pen.

 

Guess it's entirely possible that, after this post-season, they consider keeping Peacock in the pen ...

[toonsterwu]

More I think about it, the DIamondbacks really are a good match for us.

 

Our most likely trade chip - Ian Happ.

 

Diamodbacks likely need - Corner OF with some power (assuming they don't resign JD Martinez ... even if they did, they could still fit Happ in.)

 

Our most pressing need - SP.

 

Diamondbacks strongest area - SP, and specifically, of the most likely trade options for them (Corbin/Walker).

 

The problem is, their most likely trade candidate, if they do shop him, would be Patrick Corbin (with the idea that Shelby Miller might be back to slide into the 5th spot next year, and if not, they have some other options, perhaps giving Archie Bradley or Braden Shipley a look, amongst others) and Corbin is a FA after 2018. It'd be tough forking over Happ for that, so any trade might have to be expanded to succeed, which complicates things. Still, it makes a lot of sense for both sides, IMO, and an early strike would allow both organizations time and options in FA.

 

_____

 

I don't know that we match up all that well with what they might be looking for, but the Astros have pitching depth (with Verlander in the rotation, there's going to be an odd man out ... Verlander/Keuchel/McCullers/Peacock/Morton). I don't know if I particularly love Collin McHugh, but he's going to get more expensive and he seems the odd man out. Perhaps they use McHugh to try and replenish some system depth. I guess it's entirely possible they keep McHugh and move someone else.

 

I don't see the FO trading a player like Happ with 5 years of control for a 1 year rental in Corbin. Seal boy? Yes.

 

I don't think La Stella would do the trick. They should be able to get more in the open market. An expanded trade might be a consideration in this hypothetical ... something to bring back the Cubs some pen help perhaps.

[toonsterwu]

 

All that said, this is a big win for the Yankees in regards to getting below 197 million. This will give them a lot more flexibility, while also knowing that there's only 3 years remaining.

How is this a big win for a team looking to cut payroll/get below the tax? He’s owed 22, 22 and 23 million the next 3 years.

 

Well, two-fold. If he had opted out, that would've required them to spend hard to find 2-3 starters. Not the easiest thing to do, so it gives them more flexibility. That said, I think people are under-estimating what Tanaka might've gotten on the FA market (this is, of course, assuming enough health to pass physicals). Assuming he was healthy enough, this was a guy, age-wise, in his prime, with strong peripherals, strong 2nd half, strong post-season, strong recent record, and not declining yet. I said in another thread I thought he was the top FA SP this offseason - ahead of country-mate Darvish. Maybe I'm wrong, but I was of the opinion that, based on recent FA SP contracts and the proliferation of analytically oriented FO's ... that he was probably looking at something like 4/100. (Certainly, that hypothetical contract might've been backloaded so the difference may have been minimal).

[Bertz]

I'm really intrigued by Graveman. I saw a few of his starts early in the year and absolutely loved what I saw, but his numbers are unequivocally 'meh.'

 

I'd like to acquire him with the thought that maybe Hickey and Borzello can help him to miss more bats, knowing that even if they can't he's a pretty good 5th starter as is. Also, given Billy Beane's affinity for safe, low upside guys, I wonder if we can just cash in a couple of Zagunis/Burkes/Bote/Vosler to make a deal happen.

[d_money]

Crazy to think that Kershaw could opt out after next year (age 30). He's making $35M per. If he opts out, how much more could the guy want to make? Obviously a longer deal but still, these numbers are getting crazy, I sound like my grandpa.

[Cubswin11]

Cueto didn’t opt out of his deal, I wonder if that makes it any more likely Samardzija is or isn’t traded?

[Cubswin11]

Chacin could make a really interesting 2nd or 3rd SP addition this offseason, he literally has one of the best sliders in MLB

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Alex Cobb got a QO.

[Tim]

Alex Cobb got a QO.

That's the only reason I hesitate in believing he'll be a Cub. Otherwise I'd consider it a done deal.

[Cubswin11]

Alex Cobb got a QO.

That's the only reason I hesitate in believing he'll be a Cub. Otherwise I'd consider it a done deal.

I look at it the other way that it’s more likely he’s a Cub since his contract will likely be lower with teams not wanting to give up the pick/money. Plus we recoup a decent amount back by letting Arrieta/Davis go.

[toonsterwu]

I know everyone assumes Cobb to the Cubs ... but I'm still not sold it's locked and loaded. He's a Northeast kid, with plenty of teams looking at him. Yankees have often paid for guys with experience in the AL East. Even Boston, his hometown, could be looking for a starter. The Maddon/Hickey connection could win out, but unless I missed something, I'm just not all that sold. I expect they are going to fairly serious competition for him, with plenty of teams likely not caring all that much about the QO.

[toonsterwu]

Cueto didn’t opt out of his deal, I wonder if that makes it any more likely Samardzija is or isn’t traded?

 

My hunch is less. They don't seem intent on rebuilding, so trading from their strength (SP) likely wouldn't fix all their other holes. I suspect they'll try to throw money at the problem, and maybe even the rumors of them being one of the only teams willing to eat the entirety of the Giancarlo deal might have some legs to it.

 

Even if they don't land Stanton, they should be able to land an OF. Tbh, I really think they should retool, but that's my opinion.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I would be thrilled if all the prognosticators are wrong about Cobb to Cubs

[champaignchris]

Chacin could make a really interesting 2nd or 3rd SP addition this offseason, he literally has one of the best sliders in MLB

 

I would like Chacin as the #5 starter quite a bit, assuming someone else of higher caliber got picked up to be the Arrieta replacement. He would be a solid improvement over Lackey.

[davell]

 

So, here's an interesting development....

 

A little background, in case some don't know this guy.....He almost became the first player to come over from Japan BEFORE getting drafted over there. He's lost some off his FB, it was 97-98, in his younger years. But, he's still throwing low 90's, and has a solid repertoire. Has had some shoulder issues in the past.

 

He's not Ohtani, or Fujinami(the next best guy over there), but he's 3rd. And if he's coming over, he's probably in the same range of prospect, as Kenta Maeda was.(my opinion only) Now, that's not insanely special, but its a very legit option to be inserted into our rotation.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/japanese-pitching-star-yusei-kikuchi-173900611.html?src=rss

 

Edit, for new article. Never mind, he's evidently not going to be posted until after next season.

[17 Seconds]

if we could get cozart or neil walker at a decent price, what pitcher (if any) would you be willing to give up russell for?

[champaignchris]

if we could get cozart or neil walker at a decent price, what pitcher (if any) would you be willing to give up russell for?

 

I think Archer, Stroman and Nola are your complete list. I guess maybe Cole, too.

[Cubswin11]

if we could get cozart or neil walker at a decent price, what pitcher (if any) would you be willing to give up russell for?

Probably just Stroman but as I’ve made clear I’d rather go a different route and keep Russell.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

So, here's an interesting development....

 

A little background, in case some don't know this guy.....He almost became the first player to come over from Japan BEFORE getting drafted over there. He's lost some off his FB, it was 97-98, in his younger years. But, he's still throwing low 90's, and has a solid repertoire. Has had some shoulder issues in the past.

 

He's not Ohtani, or Fujinami(the next best guy over there), but he's 3rd. And if he's coming over, he's probably in the same range of prospect, as Kenta Maeda was.(my opinion only) Now, that's not insanely special, but its a very legit option to be inserted into our rotation.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/japanese-pitching-star-yusei-kikuchi-173900611.html?src=rss

 

Edit, for new article. Never mind, he's evidently not going to be posted until after next season.

 

Sup davell:

 

Davell Eric, what kind of impact pitchers are Shintaro Fujinami and Yusei Kikuchi? I'm guessing they'll make it over to the US at some stage, just curious what they'd project as, in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen Fujunami is probably a reliever. Low-90s might play up out of the 'pen. Plus split. Kikuchi is like 92-94, touch a 6, avg changeup and curveball. I like him.

[ScrubMD]

if we could get cozart or neil walker at a decent price, what pitcher (if any) would you be willing to give up russell for?

Probably just Stroman but as I’ve made clear I’d rather go a different route and keep Russell.

 

I hate the idea of trading Russell or Schwarber who seem very likely to increase their value this season.

 

Happ and Baez seem about as high as their value is going to get. I’d like to trade one of them (preferably Happ since I’m not as attached to him) for a Gausman/Teheran type.

 

Keep Russell as part of the core and trade Schwarber after his 40hr/950ops season to make room for Harper.

[Tim]

if we could get cozart or neil walker at a decent price, what pitcher (if any) would you be willing to give up russell for?

Probably just Stroman but as I’ve made clear I’d rather go a different route and keep Russell.

 

I hate the idea of trading Russell or Schwarber who seem very likely to increase their value this season.

 

Happ and Baez seem about as high as their value is going to get. I’d like to trade one of them (preferably Happ since I’m not as attached to him) for a Gausman/Teheran type.

 

Keep Russell as part of the core and trade Schwarber after his 40hr/950ops season to make room for Harper.

Can we please have an off season without people thinking of Teheran as an attractive target?

[ScrubMD]

Probably just Stroman but as I’ve made clear I’d rather go a different route and keep Russell.

 

I hate the idea of trading Russell or Schwarber who seem very likely to increase their value this season.

 

Happ and Baez seem about as high as their value is going to get. I’d like to trade one of them (preferably Happ since I’m not as attached to him) for a Gausman/Teheran type.

 

Keep Russell as part of the core and trade Schwarber after his 40hr/950ops season to make room for Harper.

Can we please have an off season without people thinking of Teheran as an attractive target?

 

Maybe when he stops being one?