Starting Pitching candidates

[weis21]

just watched a video of the bow-tied baller saying he didn't see the cubs in on gray bc it would require one of thier ML players (he mentioned Happ, specifically). that's not a hot taek from ken and i suppose it's probably true. would you all be ok with trading either happ or almora for gray if that was about the extent of the pieces? or would we require doolittle or someone else?

 

also, who do you all value more - happ or almora? i keep going back and forth. i'd probably say happ but it's really close for me. i know it's been talked about a little lately but figured i'd throw it back out there for the hell of it.

[sweetpeteman]

just watched a video of the bow-tied baller saying he didn't see the cubs in on gray bc it would require one of thier ML players (he mentioned Happ, specifically). that's not a hot taek from ken and i suppose it's probably true. would you all be ok with trading either happ or almora for gray if that was about the extent of the pieces? or would we require doolittle or someone else?

 

also, who do you all value more - happ or almora? i keep going back and forth. i'd probably say happ but it's really close for me. i know it's been talked about a little lately but figured i'd throw it back out there for the hell of it.

 

I'm ok with trading Almora, not Happ.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Even if it's the going rate, I really would not like it if Happ was included in a Gray deal. Almora in such a deal wouldn't bother me, tbh.

[Bote McBoteface]

just watched a video of the bow-tied baller saying he didn't see the cubs in on gray bc it would require one of thier ML players (he mentioned Happ, specifically). that's not a hot taek from ken and i suppose it's probably true. would you all be ok with trading either happ or almora for gray if that was about the extent of the pieces? or would we require doolittle or someone else?

 

also, who do you all value more - happ or almora? i keep going back and forth. i'd probably say happ but it's really close for me. i know it's been talked about a little lately but figured i'd throw it back out there for the hell of it.

 

I'm ok with trading Almora, not Happ.

 

Yeah, im seeing Happ as way more valuable than Almora. I cant see Gray being traded with Almora as the headliner, and i wouldnt be willing to trade Happ for Gray. Almora+ lottery tickets for Doolittle, though, i think is fair. We might need to add a bigger piece to that. Doolittle is Plan A-Z for me. Add him to this roster and i think ou team is better than last year's, and extremely difficult to beat in the playoffs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Epstein had a really interesting quote after the Quintana trade. Something about if the team stepped up in the next two weeks he might do something aggressive and 2017 oriented, looking to maximize all 25 roster spots this year. The team's holding up their end of the bargain so far.

 

While obviously the big need is always going to be pitching, always, he left the quote nice and ambiguous. Rental? Bat? SP? Reliever? Seems like anything's possible.

 

Where did you see that quote? I don't recall that from an earlier read of this, for example: https://theathletic.com/75441/2017/07/13/theo-epstein-speaks-about-trading-for-jose-quintana/

 

To answer the question, I would guess rental reliever, although looking over the list I don't see any obvious candidates. Maybe Nicasio or Watson?

[woodchip2153]

Epstein had a really interesting quote after the Quintana trade. Something about if the team stepped up in the next two weeks he might do something aggressive and 2017 oriented, looking to maximize all 25 roster spots this year. The team's holding up their end of the bargain so far.

 

While obviously the big need is always going to be pitching, always, he left the quote nice and ambiguous. Rental? Bat? SP? Reliever? Seems like anything's possible.

 

Where did you see that quote? I don't recall that from an earlier read of this, for example: https://theathletic.com/75441/2017/07/13/theo-epstein-speaks-about-trading-for-jose-quintana/

 

To answer the question, I would guess rental reliever, although looking over the list I don't see any obvious candidates. Maybe Nicasio?

 

I think it was in a clip during the game on Friday.

[bauermj]

Bryant and Russell aren't going to sign longterm team friendly deals. I don't feel like they need to rush to lock up Hendricks and Baez either. What does a Davis extension look like? That would be my biggest question, but also why would he not explore his options knowing teams are paying relievers like crazy?

 

I would try my luck with Contreras & Carl Jr to get the ball rolling. Probably early but I like both of them long term a lot & probably some incentive to get higher pay now vs. later. It would be nice to balance the future payroll increases (Arb 3/Arb 4!; Future FA SP?) against some of the likely surplus space these next few years.

 

I think one of the underrated aspects of the Quintana trade is the payroll flexibility it offers long term. From what I can tell, this most recent CBA was particularly tough on going above the ~200M luxury tax threshold. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2019-2021 Cubs up against this number regularly while this core is together. Quintana's 5% cut of that will allow a lot more flexibility than the 30M starter (15%).

[CubinNY]

So it probably can't be done during the season, but what does it cost to bring Archie Bradley over from Arizona? He's still just 24 and absolutely killing it in the bullpen to the tune of a 1.50ERA 2.34FIP 2.77xFIP 10.71K/9 1.71BB/9. I'd love to have him as a #5 in 2018.

I don't think Bradley is going anywhere.

[Clem Fandango]

Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the Braves are "very open" to dealing right-hander Julio Teheran.

The 26-year-old is having a rough season, compiling a 4.79 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 75/40 K/BB ratio over 103 1/3 innings in his 18 starts. He's under contract for two more seasons though at a very affordable total of $19 million. He could become an attractive commodity for teams that miss out on Sonny Gray.

 

Not sure how folks feel about Teheran, but he could probably be had for less than what Beane wants for Gray I'd imagine, given his rough season and also inconsistent history over the last couple of years. But his age and contract fits in well with what Theo is after. And he doesn't have the injury history that Gray has.

[Agony and Ivy]

Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the Braves are "very open" to dealing right-hander Julio Teheran.

The 26-year-old is having a rough season, compiling a 4.79 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 75/40 K/BB ratio over 103 1/3 innings in his 18 starts. He's under contract for two more seasons though at a very affordable total of $19 million. He could become an attractive commodity for teams that miss out on Sonny Gray.

 

Not sure how folks feel about Teheran, but he could probably be had for less than what Beane wants for Gray I'd imagine, given his rough season and also inconsistent history over the last couple of years. But his age and contract fits in well with what Theo is after. And he doesn't have the injury history that Gray has.

 

I've never really liked him at all. He's currently at -0.1 fWAR and projected to be worth another 0.9 WAR. He's pretty bad and I wouldn't want to give up much of anything because the Braves won't be paying his contract.

[Tryptamine]

I would much rather give a contract to someone like Cobb/Lynn in the off season than give up any kind of talent for Teheran.

[weitliz]

I wonder if a Gray for Russell trade would be offered or considered? The domestic violence allegations make me wonder if Theo and Jed want to get Addy away from the team, if the return is right. Oakland might be an interesting landing spot for him.

[Post Count Padder]

I like Teheran as a decent, young and controllable starter who could be a good....number 3... starter.

 

It really all depends on what Atlanta asks for. They are selling low on him but he does have the track record. Maybe we can trade Caratini back to them so we end up getting Teheran for James Russell and Bonifacio, lol.

[Agony and Ivy]

I like Teheran as a decent, young and controllable starter who could be a good....number 3... starter.

 

It really all depends on what Atlanta asks for. They are selling low on him but he does have the track record. Maybe we can trade Caratini back to them so we end up getting Teheran for James Russell and Bonifacio, lol.

 

He's awful. Striking out a career low and walking a career high. Eddie Butler is just as good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jose Quintana didn't forget to be a good pitcher in the first half of the year, and I doubt Teheran did either. He's got over 900 MLB innings with a 3.54 ERA. If you think he's hurt, or that his cost would be too high, that's fine. But 'he had some bad starts this year, he's suddenly less than worthless' is not a compelling argument.

[Agony and Ivy]

Jose Quintana didn't forget to be a good pitcher in the first half of the year, and I doubt Teheran did either. He's got over 900 MLB innings with a 3.54 ERA. If you think he's hurt, or that his cost would be too high, that's fine. But 'he had some bad starts this year, he's suddenly less than worthless' is not a compelling argument.

 

Quintana and Teheran aren't even in the same conversation, and I would argue that Teheran has always been pretty worthless.

 

-0.2, 0.2, 2.5, 3.2, 1.2, 3.2, -0.1

 

Those are his fWAR in his career. Combine his less than mediocre track record with his declining velocity and he's a hard pass.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jose Quintana didn't forget to be a good pitcher in the first half of the year, and I doubt Teheran did either. He's got over 900 MLB innings with a 3.54 ERA. If you think he's hurt, or that his cost would be too high, that's fine. But 'he had some bad starts this year, he's suddenly less than worthless' is not a compelling argument.

 

Quintana and Teheran aren't even in the same conversation, and I would argue that Teheran has always been pretty worthless.

 

-0.2, 0.2, 2.5, 3.2, 1.2, 3.2, -0.1

 

Those are his fWAR in his career. Combine his less than mediocre track record with his declining velocity and he's a hard pass.

 

Those first two seasons have a combined 25 IP, they're irrelevant. He's also consistently outproduced his FIP, his full seasons by bWar are 3.2, 3.9, 1.5, and 4.8. His velocity hasn't declined. He's been a very good pitcher for a number of years, if you don't like him for whatever reason that's okay but if you're going to resort to histrionics like comparing him to Butler or saying he's 'always been pretty worthless' it undermines the point.

 

If anything, now is the ideal time to explore trading for Teheran. His trade value is at its lowest, and he doesn't bear the weight of saving the rotation since they've already added Quintana. He's extremely durable(11th most IP since he entered the league, right with Hamels and Verlander) yet is still only 26 and you have him for 2.5 seasons.

[Agony and Ivy]

Jose Quintana didn't forget to be a good pitcher in the first half of the year, and I doubt Teheran did either. He's got over 900 MLB innings with a 3.54 ERA. If you think he's hurt, or that his cost would be too high, that's fine. But 'he had some bad starts this year, he's suddenly less than worthless' is not a compelling argument.

 

Quintana and Teheran aren't even in the same conversation, and I would argue that Teheran has always been pretty worthless.

 

-0.2, 0.2, 2.5, 3.2, 1.2, 3.2, -0.1

 

Those are his fWAR in his career. Combine his less than mediocre track record with his declining velocity and he's a hard pass.

 

Those first two seasons have a combined 25 IP, they're irrelevant. He's also consistently outproduced his FIP, his full seasons by bWar are 3.2, 3.9, 1.5, and 4.8. His velocity hasn't declined. He's been a very good pitcher for a number of years, if you don't like him for whatever reason that's okay but if you're going to resort to histrionics like comparing him to Butler or saying he's 'always been pretty worthless' it undermines the point.

 

If anything, now is the ideal time to explore trading for Teheran. His trade value is at its lowest, and he doesn't bear the weight of saving the rotation since they've already added Quintana. He's extremely durable(11th most IP since he entered the league, right with Hamels and Verlander) yet is still only 26 and you have him for 2.5 seasons.

 

He out produced his FIP in a pitcher friendly park with non juiced baseballs.

 

His K% is down to 16.7% and his walk rate is up to 8.9%, that's not histrionics at all. I'll cede the velocity point since it's just his 4 seam and it's not even down a full tick. He's always had a dinger problem and now he's got a walk and a strikeout problem to go along with it, which are things I don't like in pitchers for some reason. But he does dominate the Cubs, so maybe they could trade for him before the game tonight?

[Agony and Ivy]

I like Teheran as a decent, young and controllable starter who could be a good....number 3... starter.

 

It really all depends on what Atlanta asks for. They are selling low on him but he does have the track record. Maybe we can trade Caratini back to them so we end up getting Teheran for James Russell and Bonifacio, lol.

 

He's awful. Striking out a career low and walking a career high. Eddie Butler is just as good.

 

 

There's a whole lot of data being ignored in this take of Teheran. Why is it a good idea to ignore alll other info about Teheran except this season's results? This is particularly the case when the Cubs just traded for a normally healthy and quality SP who was underperforming.

 

I like Teheran a whole lot unless his arm is injured this year. Normally he does a whole lot of stuff well, and he's all of 26 this year with a long track record of pro success.

 

Again, Quintana and Teheran aren't in the same universe. If Quintana had just continued what he was doing this year he would've ended with a more productive season than any single season in Teheran's career.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I don't like how low his floor is but damn he is looking mighty appealing as a 5th guy right now that could easily bounce back and be a big part of the next 2 years rotation.

[David]

i've never liked teheran at all and like him even less now that he's a dumpster fire

 

also, ask yourself why a team that's approaching seeing the fruits of a rebuild is very open to trading a 26 year old starter

[David]

i've never liked teheran at all and like him even less now that he's a dumpster fire

 

also, ask yourself why a team that's approaching seeing the fruits of a rebuild is very open to trading a 26 year old starter

 

Because selling established pitching during a rebuild is a pretty basic step? The alternative is having him wade through the leanest years with the team, blowing ages 26-28 most likely, and upping the chances for injury.

 

The braves are. 500 and have the second best record in baseball since the start of June... no thanks to Teheran

[David]

 

Because selling established pitching during a rebuild is a pretty basic step? The alternative is having him wade through the leanest years with the team, blowing ages 26-28 most likely, and upping the chances for injury.

 

The braves are. 500 and have the second best record in baseball since the start of June...

 

They're also a terrible team that doesn't do anything well on either side of the ball with a big negative run differential.

 

in that same stretch they have a +11 run differential (-35 on the season)

 

they have played considerably better (without looking at anything regarding their schedule) in the last 6 weeks or so.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

also, ask yourself why a team that's approaching seeing the fruits of a rebuild is very open to trading a 26 year old starter

 

Unless they think he's hurt or his arm is about to explode, I'm not a big fan of this logic, since it applies nearly equally to every team and player that could be traded.

[David]

also, ask yourself why a team that's approaching seeing the fruits of a rebuild is very open to trading a 26 year old starter

 

Unless they think he's hurt or his arm is about to explode, I'm not a big fan of this logic, since it applies nearly equally to every team and player that could be traded.

 

i just don't see why a team that is trending upward (and appears to be in the process of turning a corner on big league results) with a lot of young talent coming up would be looking to sell low on a 26 year old starter who has had success in the past. i'm not saying it's blanket logic that can be applied everywhere or anything, but this specific case is odd to me.