kenley jansen watch thread

[Cubswin11]

What about Cashner as a replacement for Travis Wood?

 

I'm also not against Brett Anderson in a similar-ish capacity.

Daniel Hudson, Derek Holland, Bud Norris and Ivan Nova are all guys who interest me in this rough bullpen role, to varying degrees. Nova might get offered a starting role by someone since he had some success with the Pirates after the trade deadline but his stuff could play up out of the pen and could go multiple innings or spot start when needed.

[Cubswin11]

 

I'm also not against Brett Anderson in a similar-ish capacity.

Daniel Hudson, Derek Holland, Bud Norris and Ivan Nova are all guys who interest me in this rough bullpen role, to varying degrees. Nova might get offered a starting role by someone since he had some success with the Pirates after the trade deadline but his stuff could play up out of the pen and could go multiple innings or spot start when needed.

 

Holland's got an option that the Rangers would be nuts not to pick up, but I'd love him if they let him go. Nova's a name I like as New Hammel.

Holland's been pretty trashy as a starter and injury prone the past few years. He's 30 so maybe the decide they'd rather save the $10 million than bring him back to bring in someone more dependable. I think he's a guy who could see some success as a RP, his velo is still pretty decent and as a lefty with even a slight uptick he could become something more than Wood.

[davell]

Guys, the FA SP market is beyond awful. We've got the option on Hammel for 12 mill. That gives us 5 starters, 6 if Montgomery is competing. My guess is if we add someone else, it'd be thru trade. Because we're not about to give the horsefeathering Ivan Nova's of the world a 3 or 4 year deal. Which he's going to get. Cashner is going to get a multi year FA deal as a SP. Brett Anderson has thrown 397 innings over the last SIX seasons. Signing him is a waste of money and he'll still command a decent one year outlay.

 

Bartolo? He's staying put. Hellickson? Eww. Outside of One Pitch Rich, that's the cream of the SP crop. So pass. Just keep Hammel at 1-12 and try to trade for a guy. But going multiple years on any of these guys, outside of Him, is dumb. So is throwing decent money at guys who are always hurt.

 

No clue what the payroll is doing, but I'd rather keep Dex, than add Hill. I'd rather add a closer instead of him too. So, basically......Just a hard pass on FA SP this off season.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Plus, judging by Brett Anderson's Twitter, he seems like a real [expletive]. Edited October 25, 2016 by Bobson Dugnutt

[davell]

Plus, judging by Brett Anderson'a Twitter, he seems like a real [expletive].

 

Yeah, he ain't playing here. Not that we'd want him anyway.

[Regular Show]

So, I'm torn between wanting Melancon for probably fewer years and less money or K. Jansen at this point. K. Jansen is the best RP available this offseason, and will probably command the highest salary and longest contract among relief pitchers.

 

I think we've all seen the flaws with A. Chapman now. His command abandons him, his slider is borderline awful and he can't throw it near the strike zone sometimes, and his attitude on the mound doesn't inspire a lot of confidence among us fans. I mean the 100+ fastball is incredible, but he needs to throw more strikes and a better breaking ball when hitters are sitting on the fastball. I mean at this point the majority of us probably don't want chapman back now right?

 

I was angry at the front office for not negotiating a contract extension for Chapman at the time of the trade, but we're fortunate that didn't happen looking back. It sucks we gave up so much for a rental, but if he helps us win a WS then I guess it'll be worth it. I don't know if we can outbid the Dodgers for Jansen, but they did lose Greinke last year...

 

Anyway, my preferences for Closer as of this moment:

 

1. RHP - K. Jansen

2. RHP - M. Melancon

3. LHP - A. Chapman (I hope we don't re-sign him)

[Bull]

So, I'm torn between wanting Melancon for probably fewer years and less money or K. Jansen at this point. K. Jansen is the best RP available this offseason, and will probably command the highest salary and longest contract among relief pitchers.

 

I think we've all seen the flaws with A. Chapman now. His command abandons him, his slider is borderline awful and he can't throw it near the strike zone sometimes, and his attitude on the mound doesn't inspire a lot of confidence among us fans. I mean the 100+ fastball is incredible, but he needs to throw more strikes and a better breaking ball when hitters are sitting on the fastball. I mean at this point the majority of us probably don't want chapman back now right?

 

I was angry at the front office for not negotiating a contract extension for Chapman at the time of the trade, but we're fortunate that didn't happen looking back. It sucks we gave up so much for a rental, but if he helps us win a WS then I guess it'll be worth it. I don't know if we can outbid the Dodgers for Jansen, but they did lose Greinke last year...

 

Anyway, my preferences for Closer as of this moment:

 

1. RHP - K. Jansen

2. RHP - M. Melancon

3. LHP - A. Chapman (I hope we don't re-sign him)

 

Gleyber Torres: sacrificial lamb?

[Bull]

There's a difference between guys like Marmol, Bell, and Rosenthal throwing enough strikes for a few years to be good closers and guys like Jansen, Chapman, and Melancon having a 4-5 year run where they dominate and have an ERA on the right side of 2. They're a different class of player.

I believe Marmol was in that class. IIRC his slider was the most unhittable pitch in baseball. It's just that good sliders break arms.

 

Peak Marmol was close, he had a 2.55 ERA and 2.01 FIP in 2010, and even in that peak year he walked 6 guys per 9. He wasn't close to that performance with any consistency though, if he had done that for 3+ years then sure, but that's not what happened unfortunately.

 

I get that. I see Marmol as a cautionary tale for Arrieta. Wasn't there a fan graphs article on Arrieta and how pitchers who threw as many sliders as him get injured. This is what I feel happened to Marmol.

[KingCubsFan]

Guys, the FA SP market is beyond awful. We've got the option on Hammel for 12 mill. That gives us 5 starters, 6 if Montgomery is competing. My guess is if we add someone else, it'd be thru trade. Because we're not about to give the [expletive] Ivan Nova's of the world a 3 or 4 year deal. Which he's going to get. Cashner is going to get a multi year FA deal as a SP. Brett Anderson has thrown 397 innings over the last SIX seasons. Signing him is a waste of money and he'll still command a decent one year outlay.

 

Bartolo? He's staying put. Hellickson? Eww. Outside of One Pitch Rich, that's the cream of the SP crop. So pass. Just keep Hammel at 1-12 and try to trade for a guy. But going multiple years on any of these guys, outside of Him, is dumb. So is throwing decent money at guys who are always hurt.

 

No clue what the payroll is doing, but I'd rather keep Dex, than add Hill. I'd rather add a closer instead of him too. So, basically......Just a hard pass on FA SP this off season.

Between Dex, Edwin Jackson, and declining Hammel's option, that's about $35 million to spend if they really wanted, without even accounting for a rise in payroll. I'd make Jansen a priority. Heck, I'd go after both Jansen and Chapman. We've seen how valuable elite relievers can be in the playoffs.

[Cubswin11]

So, I'm torn between wanting Melancon for probably fewer years and less money or K. Jansen at this point. K. Jansen is the best RP available this offseason, and will probably command the highest salary and longest contract among relief pitchers.

 

I think we've all seen the flaws with A. Chapman now. His command abandons him, his slider is borderline awful and he can't throw it near the strike zone sometimes, and his attitude on the mound doesn't inspire a lot of confidence among us fans. I mean the 100+ fastball is incredible, but he needs to throw more strikes and a better breaking ball when hitters are sitting on the fastball. I mean at this point the majority of us probably don't want chapman back now right?

 

I was angry at the front office for not negotiating a contract extension for Chapman at the time of the trade, but we're fortunate that didn't happen looking back. It sucks we gave up so much for a rental, but if he helps us win a WS then I guess it'll be worth it. I don't know if we can outbid the Dodgers for Jansen, but they did lose Greinke last year...

 

Anyway, my preferences for Closer as of this moment:

 

1. RHP - K. Jansen

2. RHP - M. Melancon

3. LHP - A. Chapman (I hope we don't re-sign him)

I have no interest in Melancon for multiple reasons. Jansen or Chapman or bust. If it's neither of those two look at trades, Rule 5, or FA/DFA dumpster dive poo-poo platter that's there every year and hope you hit on 1-2 guys out of 10.

[Clem Fandango]

I get that. I see Marmol as a cautionary tale for Arrieta. Wasn't there a fan graphs article on Arrieta and how pitchers who threw as many sliders as him get injured. This is what I feel happened to Marmol.

 

Jake pretty much dropped usage on both his slider and his curveball in favor of his sinker this year. Methinks he was trying to save his arm, if not for the postseason (which hasn't helped) then for next year when he's pitching for a pay day.

 

But even then the amount of sliders he threw in 2015 was 28%. For reference the poster child for slider abuse, Tyson Ross, threw his slider 42% or more of the time. Other pitchers (besides Ross) who have thrown the slider more than 28% over the last few years:

 

Michael Pineda

Chris Archer

Ervin Santana

Jason Hammel

Madison Bumgarner

Ricky Nolasco

Francisco Liriano

Collin McHugh

Colby Lewis

Garret Richards

Yovanni Gallardo

Kyle Lohse

Clayton Kershaw

Wily Peralta

 

There's a lot of cautionary tales on that list, but also a lot of talent, but of the top level talent on that list only Bumgarner has yet to show signs of decline or injury, though Kershaw's injury wasn't arm related, but Kershaw and Bumgarner are freaks of nature.

 

Arrieta was 29% and 28.9% in 2014 and 2015 respectively according to Pitch F/X (FanGraphs proprietary pitch type values thinks he was throwing a cutter and not a slider iuf I'm intepreting it correctly). This year he dropped it to 18%. It was his most effective pitch (and the msot valuable pitch in MLB in 2015) so it makes no sense for him to drop it other than to save his arm for the future. If I'm reading the Brooks Baseball charts correctly, Jake has utilized his slider 32.2% of the time in the playoffs, so perhaps he was saving his arm for the postseason where he could unleash his most valuable pitch. North over at CubsRelated did a good post on Jake and his slider back when he had that dominant start a couples starts before the season ended here:

 

http://www.cubsrelated.com/2016/09/jake-arrieta-is-trending-up-not-down.html

 

All I know is there is obvious correlation between slider usage and injury, that much has been known for a while now. I can only guess Jake knows this as well and if he is throwing his slider 32% of the time right now in the playoffs, then maybe that was his plan all along. That and to unleash it next year so he gets a big payday in the offseason. Which in that scenario, I'd be fine letting him walk. And depending on who we acquire this offseason, maybe even trading him if his stock is high before the deadline if it's shown that we wouldn't need him to still win.

[Guest]

want Chapman back.

[Guest]

I like his head tattoos.

[soccer10k]

Not that it's a huge deal but it's worth noting that Jansen will also cost a draft pick while Melancon won't since he was traded midseason.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Heck, I'd go after both Jansen and Chapman.

 

Same

 

I'd be down with that, but Jansen is going to get big money no matter who he signs with, so my guess would be that he will want to go to a team where he is the closer. And I just can't imagine Chapman being willing to go to the setup role.

 

If it's one guy I pick Jansen even with giving up the pick.

[Clem Fandango]

Now that we're picking at the end of the first round I'm less concerned about losing draft picks. I'd be all for Jansen and Chapman.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

Ehh I would prefer the Chapman/Melacon route. Sure the pick is at the end but if we keep giving away 1st round picks our minor system will be barren quickly. Plus a pen with Chapman/Melacon/Strop/ Edwards is just gonna be nasty.

[BigbadB]

Hasn't it always been assumed that Chapman would go back to NY after this season?

 

I'd rather see them go a bit cheaper at closer for now since there are a lot of guys looking at raises and long term contracts. Maybe groom Edwards or Strop to take over for Rondon if he can't handle it anymore. If they can afford Jansen and lure him away from LA, great. But I don't see it happening.

[Tryptamine]

Hasn't it always been assumed that Chapman would go back to NY after this season?

I'd rather see them go a bit cheaper at closer for now since there are a lot of guys looking at raises and long term contracts. Maybe groom Edwards or Strop to take over for Rondon if he can't handle it anymore. If they can afford Jansen and lure him away from LA, great. But I don't see it happening.

 

There has been mutual interest between the two that makes it look likely. Also, if this year has taught us anything it's the absolute importance of having a closer that can dominate, especially in the playoffs. Going into next year and using Edwards/Strop/Rondon as our closer is just asking to give up another enormous package at the trade deadline in 2017.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think it's more assumed that it should be assumed that Chapman will go back to NY. I mostly blame the Cubs' century of not acting like a big market team.

 

they've been acting like a big market team since the 90's so I'm not sure how that theory holds

[Banedon]

I think it's more assumed that it should be assumed that Chapman will go back to NY. I mostly blame the Cubs' century of not acting like a big market team.

 

This is not a good post.

[Derwood]

Off season FA talk while the team is still playing is bad ju ju

[rocket]

the 2016 cubs dgaf about juju.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Lets convert Heyward to closer

[philosophizer75]

Honestly, I want to re-sign Chapman.

 

He is a generational talent, and he is in his prime.

 

This might be pretty meatbally, but for most of the time he was on the team Chapman seemed like a robot. He never smiled, never showed emotion. He looked mean, never showed more than a smirk. That narrative in my mind got flipped on its head in the last 3 innings of game 7. He was sobbing in the dugout during the rain delay after letting the team down (which I blame Maddon for more than Chapman), and he was going just as nuts as the rest of them during the 10th and in the celebration.

 

I dunno, I can envision it playing out with him really embracing this fun, young, successful team and being more than just a hired gun.

 

I understand that a lot of people want nothing to do with him because of the off the field issue, and I say issue because as far as I'm aware there has only been one incident. I want to believe that the domestic violence and gun incident was a one time lapse in judgement/morality and that he'll never do anything like it again, regardless of whether we sign him or not. And obviously I'm basing my interest in him on the notion that nothing like that ever happens again.