Cubs add Chapman for Torres, et al. imb wishes we paid more

[UMFan83]

Well thinking about the last week or so, adding Montgomery and Chapman makes the bullpen absurdly better (both from addition and addition from subtraction by taking really bad players out of the bullpen and moving lesser RP to more fitting positions)

 

What is the pen looking like now?

 

(positions might vary depending on game situation of course)

CL - Chapman

8th - Rondon

7th - Strop

6th - Edwards

LHRP - Montgomery

LHRP - Wood

RHRP - Nathan/Grimm

13th pitcher - Grimm/Nathan

There is no need to declare Chapman the Closer. It should be purely by situation whether Chapman or Rondon pitches the 9th, and I'm pretty sure that is how Joe will handle it.

 

Hence why I put the disclaimer up. I said earlier if Harper comes up in the 7th with 2 on in a playoff game, I want the guy who has held LHB to an OPS under .400 in his career. In that case Rondon can slide to CL

[Omar]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/twotall4u/status/757379979042619392[/tweet]

[toonsterwu]

I worry the 4th piece is a low level lottery ticket. Will just have to wait and see.

[David]

 

I said if he became that, it'd be worthy of a parade. Meaning I think it's very unlikely he becomes that.

 

also being a barely above average regular for 2 seasons isn't that valuable. these WAR type valuations aren't perfect. it's not htat hard to come by that type of player for a franchise who can develop (and spend) the way we can. elite play takes massive precedence.

 

I totally understand that Chapman is really good at what he does. But I don't think I'd call 25 innings of work 'elite play'.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[RynoRules]

Yeah, but not all innings are created equal either. Leverage factors in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a trade that the Cubs are not very likely to regret. Warren and McKinney are extremely unlikely to become first division starters, and I've been campaigning to sell high on Torres for months so I'm not worried about him being a future star.

 

 

At the same time, it's not great from a value perspective. I absolutely understand why they'd go to these lengths for Chapman's quality, I just wonder how different is this than what it would've taken to get someone like Colome, or even Doolittle. I understand those acquisitions serve different purposes, but if you're using this much trade currency on a relief pitcher I get uncomfortable with such a short time horizon.

[imb]

Real talk:

 

Would we have been better off with just swapping Schwarber 1-for-1?

 

are you out of your horsefeathering mind

[Cubswin11]

I worry the 4th piece is a low level lottery ticket. Will just have to wait and see.

I'd be surprised if it's something more than like Rob Zastryzny

[David]

I'm not really sold that we actually have a 94 percent chance of winning the division, I'm not trying to be an anti stats guy at all, I'm far from it but I don't see a 7.5 game lead as insurmountable at all and I've seen too much crazy [expletive] in sports to think we got it figured out statistically so I'm okay with improving our team to even win the division.

 

I also think there is value in turning games into 6 inning games. That [expletive] would wear on an opposing team mentally, especially if out offense and starting pitching are on. I don't really think we gave up that much to get such a good player even if it's for 2 months. From a baseball point of view i personally like the deal.

 

a 7.5 game lead in late july by the clearly better team isn't insurmountable, but 6% isn't nothing, either.

[squally1313]

 

also being a barely above average regular for 2 seasons isn't that valuable. these WAR type valuations aren't perfect. it's not htat hard to come by that type of player for a franchise who can develop (and spend) the way we can. elite play takes massive precedence.

 

I totally understand that Chapman is really good at what he does. But I don't think I'd call 25 innings of work 'elite play'.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Yeah, that list loses a bit of credibility when you realize that the pitcher we're acquiring supposedly isn't as good as Sam Dyson and his 6.75 K/9 this year. Not to mention 36 year old Brad Ziegler who was just acquired for 2 low level minor leaguers no one has ever heard of before.

[sneakypower]

This is a trade that the Cubs are not very likely to regret. Warren and McKinney are extremely unlikely to become first division starters, and I've been campaigning to sell high on Torres for months so I'm not worried about him being a future star.

 

 

At the same time, it's not great from a value perspective. I absolutely understand why they'd go to these lengths for Chapman's quality, I just wonder how different is this than what it would've taken to get someone like Colome, or even Doolittle. I understand those acquisitions serve similar purposes, but if you're using this much trade currency on a relief pitcher I get uncomfortable with such a short time horizon.

i really think the 4-for-1 is assuming extension, and if that can't be reached it'll look more palatable from our end

 

i'm not sweating it, but i'll be fairly surprised if it plays out differently

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I worry the 4th piece is a low level lottery ticket. Will just have to wait and see.

I'd be surprised if it's something more than like Rob Zastryzny

I wanted to throw in his name last night, but I was way too lazy to look it up and there was no way in hell I was going to try spelling it

[bcl412]

I'm not really sold that we actually have a 94 percent chance of winning the division, I'm not trying to be an anti stats guy at all, I'm far from it but I don't see a 7.5 game lead as insurmountable at all and I've seen too much crazy [expletive] in sports to think we got it figured out statistically so I'm okay with improving our team to even win the division.

 

I also think there is value in turning games into 6 inning games. That [expletive] would wear on an opposing team mentally, especially if out offense and starting pitching are on. I don't really think we gave up that much to get such a good player even if it's for 2 months. From a baseball point of view i personally like the deal.

 

a 7.5 game lead in late july by the clearly better team isn't insurmountable, but 6% isn't nothing, either.

I mean we always were likely to win the division at this point but i don't see anything wrong with making the team better for what we gave up. horsefeathers isn't over til it's over.

[BigSlick]

If Grimm is the last guy in your bullpen you have a very good bullpen

 

So that'll be fun to watch at least

[David]

 

I totally understand that Chapman is really good at what he does. But I don't think I'd call 25 innings of work 'elite play'.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Yeah, that list loses a bit of credibility when you realize that the pitcher we're acquiring supposedly isn't as good as Sam Dyson and his 6.75 K/9 this year. Not to mention 36 year old Brad Ziegler who was just acquired for 2 low level minor leaguers no one has ever heard of before.

 

Do you pick apart WAR and UZR this way? These types of stats are obviously not perfect. That doesn't mean they aren't generally good at what they're intended to do.

 

Knowing he is every bit as dominant as that suggests, getting to 14th on that list in the amount of innings he has is *probably* really damn good.

Edited July 25, 2016 by David

[Elrhino]

If this trade falls through, "Well, whatever happens at least we still have Billy McKinney in the system" is not going to cross my mind when Grimm is called on to pitch pitch in a critical moment in the playoffs.

[David]

This is a trade that the Cubs are not very likely to regret. Warren and McKinney are extremely unlikely to become first division starters, and I've been campaigning to sell high on Torres for months so I'm not worried about him being a future star.

 

 

At the same time, it's not great from a value perspective. I absolutely understand why they'd go to these lengths for Chapman's quality, I just wonder how different is this than what it would've taken to get someone like Colome, or even Doolittle. I understand those acquisitions serve similar purposes, but if you're using this much trade currency on a relief pitcher I get uncomfortable with such a short time horizon.

i really think the 4-for-1 is assuming extension, and if that can't be reached it'll look more palatable from our end

 

i'm not sweating it, but i'll be fairly surprised if it plays out differently

 

if steinbrenner approved, and everything else has been agreed on, it seems like that has to be the hold up at this point.

[Banedon]

This is a trade that the Cubs are not very likely to regret. Warren and McKinney are extremely unlikely to become first division starters, and I've been campaigning to sell high on Torres for months so I'm not worried about him being a future star.

 

 

At the same time, it's not great from a value perspective. I absolutely understand why they'd go to these lengths for Chapman's quality, I just wonder how different is this than what it would've taken to get someone like Colome, or even Doolittle. I understand those acquisitions serve similar purposes, but if you're using this much trade currency on a relief pitcher I get uncomfortable with such a short time horizon.

i really think the 4-for-1 is assuming extension, and if that can't be reached it'll look more palatable from our end

 

i'm not sweating it, but i'll be fairly surprised if it plays out differently

 

if steinbrenner approved, and everything else has been agreed on, it seems like that has to be the hold up at this point.

 

It's Sharma that keeps shooting down the extension idea though, right?

[David]

i really think the 4-for-1 is assuming extension, and if that can't be reached it'll look more palatable from our end

 

i'm not sweating it, but i'll be fairly surprised if it plays out differently

 

if steinbrenner approved, and everything else has been agreed on, it seems like that has to be the hold up at this point.

 

It's Sharma that keeps shooting down the extension idea though, right?

 

Yeah.

[RynoRules]

This is a trade that the Cubs are not very likely to regret. Warren and McKinney are extremely unlikely to become first division starters, and I've been campaigning to sell high on Torres for months so I'm not worried about him being a future star.

 

 

At the same time, it's not great from a value perspective. I absolutely understand why they'd go to these lengths for Chapman's quality, I just wonder how different is this than what it would've taken to get someone like Colome, or even Doolittle. I understand those acquisitions serve different purposes, but if you're using this much trade currency on a relief pitcher I get uncomfortable with such a short time horizon.

 

These are my concerns as well. I am not losing any sleep whatsoever on dealing a poor man's Terry Mulholland and a 4th OF'er. I'd prefer to have kept Torres to acquire a young and controllable SP stud or the same type of position player, but selling high on him is a reasonable move.

 

I just dislike the idea that this all of those chips are on the table for a three months of return. My view changes if Chapman is extended or we get something else of value.

Edited July 25, 2016 by RynoRules

[squally1313]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Yeah, that list loses a bit of credibility when you realize that the pitcher we're acquiring supposedly isn't as good as Sam Dyson and his 6.75 K/9 this year. Not to mention 36 year old Brad Ziegler who was just acquired for 2 low level minor leaguers no one has ever heard of before.

 

Do you pick apart WAR and UZR this way? These types of stats are obviously not perfect. That doesn't mean they aren't generally good at what they're intended to do.

 

Yeah, and I agree it shows his value, but it also shows the relatively small difference between a good reliever (ie Mike Montgomery), and an elite reliever.

 

Edit: The number 1 Cubs reliever on that list is Travis Wood, so sorry, but I think I'll look at other metrics going forward.

Edited July 25, 2016 by squally1313

[David]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Bryants Disco Ball]

This is a trade that the Cubs are not very likely to regret. Warren and McKinney are extremely unlikely to become first division starters, and I've been campaigning to sell high on Torres for months so I'm not worried about him being a future star.

 

 

At the same time, it's not great from a value perspective. I absolutely understand why they'd go to these lengths for Chapman's quality, I just wonder how different is this than what it would've taken to get someone like Colome, or even Doolittle. I understand those acquisitions serve similar purposes, but if you're using this much trade currency on a relief pitcher I get uncomfortable with such a short time horizon.

i really think the 4-for-1 is assuming extension, and if that can't be reached it'll look more palatable from our end

 

i'm not sweating it, but i'll be fairly surprised if it plays out differently

 

There isn't going to be an extension. And odds are in indeed that it will be 4-1.

[USSoccer]

Putting aside the deplorable person Chapman seems to be, who the hell cares about giving up some A-ball prospect and 3 nothings for the best reliever in the game?

[BrockLanders]

The Yankees apparently don't want to pay Chapman's $5 million left on his deal. Holdup is probably about that.