Cubs add Chapman for Torres, et al. imb wishes we paid more

[David]

are you still trying to figure out why we would want to trade for an elite relief pitcher???

 

I am, only because Theo is a crapshoot believer and this goes so against everything crapshooters believe in.

you seem to be thinking of it as a straight up coin flip where talent doesn't matter at all, just luck. it's true that playoff series do not always end with the "best" team winning or team with the best record, but your odds of winning any game increase when you better the talent you have. you add talent to better your record from year to year, you add talent to improve your chances of winning in the playoffs. it's not rocket surgery.

 

it's weighted by talent, sure, but when you're talking about a field of only playoff teams, the gaps aren't nearly enough to mean much.

 

the cubs could trade for chapman, miller, fernandez, and sale for this year and you'd still be optimistic in saying they'd not win the world series 3/4 times.

[BrockLanders]

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[TMan92]

If the deal is what was announced on the Score right now, Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren and 2 others for 2 months of Chapman and no guarantee of an extensions, it's absolutely terrible from a baseball perspective.

 

Christ

 

I'm not sure that's all that terrible from a baseball perspective.

 

 

Agreed. A 19 year old that is locked out of every position, and a relief pitcher that nibbles. Warren sucks. As long as the other two are throw ins, this still is a big move. Our 7th, 8th and 9th would be lights out.

[Tim]

Yeah, I'm pretty much at the point where I'm going to just focus on being excited about the improvement to this year's team instead of focusing on the cost. Like I said earlier, I'm going to combine the moves for Matusz, Montgomery and Chapman in my mind to spread the cost across all those guys.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

interesting......

[David]

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mckinney is another guy i'm not crazy about at this point (i don't think many are) but who i would've much preferred to keep the powder dry on in a package for someone else.

 

were the yankees really gonna get a better return than just gleyber from someone else? yeesh.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Yeah, I'm pretty much at the point where I'm going to just focus on being excited about the improvement to this year's team instead of focusing on the cost. Like I said earlier, I'm going to combine the moves for Matusz, Montgomery and Chapman in my mind to spread the cost across all those guys.

don't forget Nathan?

[Tracer Bullet]

are there reports that Chapman is a clubhouse cancer? I thought the knock on him was choking his gf and shooting up a garage or whatever. Not that he's otherwise a bad teammate.

 

I don't really want player feedback on whether he's a good addition. They want to win and he's a great pitcher, so that makes sense. But I'd still rather we not be adding a guy who just recently shot up a garage and choked his gf.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

maybe the 4th guy is Brett Gardner, and they got confused on which way he's going

[David]

seeing how we're reacting to this trade, i can only imagine how i would've felt about giving up what beane gave up for shark and hammel and then still needing to go out and get lester because hammel sucked so bad.

[Thrilho]

Seems like this move would fly in the face of the generally accepted 2% thing. A lot of stats work great on the aggregate but when you focus down to specific teams/scenarios there's a lot more variance.

 

Making it a 6 inning game seemed to have helped KC a great deal. I think it would be tough to say that without one of their relievers they would've had only a 1-2% worse chance at it.

 

For this team, it could be great to shorten up the game. For the second half, it will help keep the starters fresh. In the playoffs you can have a quicker hook and maybe ensure that Hendricks gets that #3 spot. You could potentially also Bumgarner it and pitch him for whacky amounts of innings if you get deep enough to make it worthwhile.

 

And even without an extension, who's to say that they haven't had discussions and Chapman is amenable to to signing here long term, generally likes the terms the Cubs have but wants to see some bidding. Just like with Dex maybe you get him in here an he loves it and wants to stick around. Then the whole value proposition of the deal flips again.

 

Mostly just wante to pop in to say that in this particular case it seems like Theo doesn't buy the concept of only a 1-2% pickup in WS probability and just because he's referred to the playoffs as a crapshoot before it doesn't mean that he agrees with every commonly held belief tied it that concept.

[David]

are there reports that Chapman is a clubhouse cancer? I thought the knock on him was choking his gf and shooting up a garage or whatever. Not that he's otherwise a bad teammate.

 

I don't really want player feedback on whether he's a good addition. They want to win and he's a great pitcher, so that makes sense. But I'd still rather we not be adding a guy who just recently shot up a garage and choked his gf.

 

well, there was that rizzo/chapman incident i guess.

[Thusly Boned]

At this point I'm just thankful that the Yanks chose Torres over Jimenez (if that choice was in fact presented to them, as was reported).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

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lolol. I love it.

[squally1313]

If the deal is what was announced on the Score right now, Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren and 2 others for 2 months of Chapman and no guarantee of an extensions, it's absolutely terrible from a baseball perspective.

 

Christ

 

I'm not sure that's all that terrible from a baseball perspective.

 

 

Agreed. A 19 year old that is locked out of every position, and a relief pitcher that nibbles. Warren sucks. As long as the other two are throw ins, this still is a big move. Our 7th, 8th and 9th would be lights out.

 

That isn't the point. Depending on what publication you read, Torres is somewhere in the top 50 for prospects. That has value that can be exchanged for upgrades elsewhere. If you trust Theo, then it appears that this is the most value you could get for him...2 months of a dominant reliever. I think we were all hoping he could get a little more value when trading him.

 

And it's pretty shady to be like, 'if we trade for Chapman, our 7th, 8th, and 9th would be lights out', like that's a direct result of the trade. Unless you want Chapman out there for 50 pitches a night, 2/3rds of what you're saying already wears a Cubs uniform, and we just traded for 75% of Chapman already.

[davell]

McKinney has lost a decent amount of value this year. Evidently put on some bad weight. He definitely didn't have the ability to ever headline a deal of any magnitude. But he likely winds up regaining some value next year and turning into a second division starter or solid 4th OFer type.

[David]

McKinney has lost a decent amount of value this year. Evidently put on some bad weight. He definitely didn't have the ability to ever headline a deal of any magnitude. But he likely winds up regaining some value next year and turning into a second division starter or solid 4th OFer type.

 

Well, yeah, on that end of it, if McKinney is the 3rd piece (not that we know that to be true) then you can be pretty safe in feeling the 4th is a complete nothing.

[squally1313]

McKinney has lost a decent amount of value this year. Evidently put on some bad weight. He definitely didn't have the ability to ever headline a deal of any magnitude. But he likely winds up regaining some value next year and turning into a second division starter or solid 4th OFer type.

 

Well, yeah, on that end of it, if McKinney is the 3rd piece (not that we know that to be true) then you can be pretty safe in feeling the 4th is a complete nothing.

 

Unfortunately, I feel like that's what was being said for the 2nd (and 3rd) piece.

[Vinestal]

WTF is going on? This is the worst trade ever. 4 players for 2 months of a reliever? :banghead:

[Cubs Fan Dan]

From a baseball perspective this is a huge addition at a huge cost. I'm expecting a few more follow up moves as other than Warren there still is not an answer to the crowded outfield roster the Cubs.

 

Either way it is what it is, huge addition to the team. We will see what else goes down this week.

[treebird]

totally fine with going crazy and trading everybody to make a big push now that #wearegood, but jesus why does it have to be a reliever with two months left on his contract? and this terrible horsefeathers to boot.

[David]

McKinney has lost a decent amount of value this year. Evidently put on some bad weight. He definitely didn't have the ability to ever headline a deal of any magnitude. But he likely winds up regaining some value next year and turning into a second division starter or solid 4th OFer type.

 

Well, yeah, on that end of it, if McKinney is the 3rd piece (not that we know that to be true) then you can be pretty safe in feeling the 4th is a complete nothing.

 

Unfortunately, I feel like that's what was being said for the 2nd (and 3rd) piece.

 

And they're Warren and McKinney...so pretty much true?

[David]

totally fine with going crazy and trading everybody to make a big push now that #wearegood, but jesus why does it have to be a reliever with two months left on his contract? and this terrible [expletive] to boot.

 

the "reliever" generality kind of goes out the window with this particular reliever. but the rest is true.

 

but this is what the market is. i'd personally rather we abstain altogether but i'm not gonna complain when chapman is out there incinerating hitters/innings.

[treebird]

McKinney has lost a decent amount of value this year. Evidently put on some bad weight. He definitely didn't have the ability to ever headline a deal of any magnitude. But he likely winds up regaining some value next year and turning into a second division starter or solid 4th OFer type.

 

Well, yeah, on that end of it, if McKinney is the 3rd piece (not that we know that to be true) then you can be pretty safe in feeling the 4th is a complete nothing.

 

i was pretty sure the second piece would be a complete nothing when i heard the first piece was torres.

[UMFan83]

And Chapman isn't just a good (or even great) relief pitcher. If he is not #1, he is one of the most dominating relief pitchers in baseball history. He is a weapon at the end of games. He's proven he can go either multiple innings or multiple days in a row without losing his stuff. He's a difference maker.

 

He's also an ass, but that's a different subject that's been beaten to death already.

 

I would hope that Joe is smart enough to not just use him as a 9th inning guy. If Bryce Harper is up with 2 on in the 7th inning trailing by a run in a playoff game, I don't want Travis Wood or Montgomery pitching to him there. I want the guy that has a career .397 OPS against vs. lefties to be pitching there. Use Chapman as the closer a majority of the time, but if you have to use him earlier, Rondon steps in to close.