Cubs add Chapman for Torres, et al. imb wishes we paid more

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Real talk:

 

Would we have been better off with just swapping Schwarber 1-for-1?

 

Trade a guy who has actually proven he can be dominant at the highest level or trade two minor leaguers who may never play in the majors and a swing man?

 

Let me think and get back to you.

[Omar]

what, no calls to throw Castro into the trade?

 

I thought this was NSBB

[David]

Real talk:

 

Would we have been better off with just swapping Schwarber 1-for-1?

No way. is this Dave Cameron?

 

If there's even a modicum of seriousness in his question, I might be more confused than I am about Theo going all in on a rental when we've got a playoff berth locked up.

[BigSlick]

Well thinking about the last week or so, adding Montgomery and Chapman makes the bullpen absurdly better (both from addition and addition from subtraction by taking really bad players out of the bullpen and moving lesser RP to more fitting positions)

[Liam Neeson]

We can all agree that the real losers are the Cincinnati Reds.

[UMFan83]

Also I'm getting sick of seeing people say "would Chapman have helped against the Mets last year?"

 

I completely agree that if other parts of the Cubs team collapse in the playoffs, Chapman will not help, but the point is to put yourself in the best position to win. Chapman does that.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I think that the price we're paying here will actually help insure guys like Miller and Davis stay put. Teams asking prices are already high, they'll become astronomical now. If this is the price for a guy who's giving you 30 innings, what's it going to be for an elite SP now? From this perspective, I think we've played a fairly good game of Keep Away. Because the selling teams will hold onto guys if the return isn't in line with this one.

 

Or somebody gets Davis or Miller and we are all like, why the horsefeathers did we pay that much when all we had to add was Candy Man to get Miller?

[Cubswin11]

If they are going to move forward with this thing it sure would be nice if they get it done soon so Chapman could be in town tonight and we get the most possible innings out of him.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

what, no calls to throw Castro into the trade?

 

I thought this was NSBB

but if Warren is included, we better be getting something in addition to Chapman. something like Castro...

[Thusly Boned]

We can all agree that the real losers are the Cincinnati Reds.

 

Yeah, and their fans know it, too.

[David]

Also I'm getting sick of seeing people say "would Chapman have helped against the Mets last year?"

 

I completely agree that if other parts of the Cubs team collapse in the playoffs, Chapman will not help, but the point is to put yourself in the best position to win. Chapman does that.

 

if the point they're trying to illustrate is that there are a ton of situations that can and will happen where upgrading from, say, strop to chapman won't make a difference, they're right. but horsefeathers it.

[UMFan83]

Well thinking about the last week or so, adding Montgomery and Chapman makes the bullpen absurdly better (both from addition and addition from subtraction by taking really bad players out of the bullpen and moving lesser RP to more fitting positions)

 

What is the pen looking like now?

 

(positions might vary depending on game situation of course)

CL - Chapman

8th - Rondon

7th - Strop

6th - Edwards

LHRP - Montgomery

LHRP - Wood

RHRP - Nathan/Grimm

13th pitcher - Grimm/Nathan

[Thusly Boned]

I think that the price we're paying here will actually help insure guys like Miller and Davis stay put. Teams asking prices are already high, they'll become astronomical now. If this is the price for a guy who's giving you 30 innings, what's it going to be for an elite SP now? From this perspective, I think we've played a fairly good game of Keep Away. Because the selling teams will hold onto guys if the return isn't in line with this one.

 

Or somebody gets Davis or Miller and we are all like, why the [expletive] did we pay that much when all we had to add was Candy Man to get Miller?

 

If the Yankees go back on their decision to keep Miller, the cost is going to be eye watering after this.

[Omar]

what, no calls to throw Castro into the trade?

 

I thought this was NSBB

but if Warren is included, we better be getting something in addition to Chapman. something like Castro...

 

nah, give us A-Rod.

[Elrhino]

Also I'm getting sick of seeing people say "would Chapman have helped against the Mets last year?"

 

I completely agree that if other parts of the Cubs team collapse in the playoffs, Chapman will not help, but the point is to put yourself in the best position to win. Chapman does that.

 

if the point they're trying to illustrate is that there are a ton of situations that can and will happen where upgrading from, say, strop to chapman won't make a difference, they're right. but [expletive] it.

 

But the upgrade from Grimm to Strop is significant.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Elrhino

[Vinestal]

So 1 year of IFA spending, Starlin Castro, Jason Hammel (lets just call him the trade Shark for Russell and Hammel for McKinney) and another piece for 40 innings of dominant relief?

Hah! thanks for this framing...

[bddavidson]

Any chance Theo is flipping him for that cost controlled SP we're after? The Pomeranz thing is still fresh

[David]

 

If McKinney turned out to be Matt Murton, it'd be worthy of a parade.

 

Warren has been a disaster.

 

Recency matters a lot.

 

Well Matt Murton gave us 5.2 WAR in his (roughly) two seasons of at bats here at the league minimum, so if Mckinney got anywhere close to that, it's probably not a good idea to trade him for about 30 innings of relief pitching.

 

I said if he became that, it'd be worthy of a parade. Meaning I think it's very unlikely he becomes that.

 

also being a barely above average regular for 2 seasons isn't that valuable. these WAR type valuations aren't perfect. it's not htat hard to come by that type of player for a franchise who can develop (and spend) the way we can. elite play takes massive precedence.

[squally1313]

Also I'm getting sick of seeing people say "would Chapman have helped against the Mets last year?"

 

I completely agree that if other parts of the Cubs team collapse in the playoffs, Chapman will not help, but the point is to put yourself in the best position to win. Chapman does that.

 

But don't just look at the Mets series. Look at the Cardinals series...would Chapman have done anything to make us better in that one? The odds of this coming to down to us needing Chapman to give us something that Montgomery wouldn't have are so slim that this makes no sense without an extension.

 

I basically just steal most of my arguments from Duke these days, but his response to Cameron's Schwarber/Miller article still holds true:

 

"We really don't upgrade our playoff chances by adding Miller. What's it go up from 98.0% to 98.2%? So now we are looking at adding him for maybe, just maybe, the chance of having him pitch in what maybe, just maybe, a close game in what maybe, just maybe, a tight series. And maybe, just maybe, he doesn't give up a run in that game that Mike Montgomery or whoever else ultimately does give up a run. Or, you know, Andrew Miller might suck in the playoffs. Or get hurt before them or whatever. Adding a guy doesn't guarantee anything. We are just hoping he comes up big in a spot or two, where any of our other options might fail. Or it could go like last year, where we beat the dog piss out of our first opponent and then get pummeled by our second opponent."

[Irrelevant Dude]

Well thinking about the last week or so, adding Montgomery and Chapman makes the bullpen absurdly better (both from addition and addition from subtraction by taking really bad players out of the bullpen and moving lesser RP to more fitting positions)

 

What is the pen looking like now?

 

(positions might vary depending on game situation of course)

CL - Chapman

8th - Rondon

7th - Strop

6th - Edwards

LHRP - Montgomery

LHRP - Wood

RHRP - Nathan/Grimm

13th pitcher - Grimm/Nathan

There is no need to declare Chapman the Closer. It should be purely by situation whether Chapman or Rondon pitches the 9th, and I'm pretty sure that is how Joe will handle it.

[Banedon]

what, no calls to throw Castro into the trade?

 

I thought this was NSBB

but if Warren is included, we better be getting something in addition to Chapman. something like Castro...

 

That'd actually be pretty funny because with Warren in the deal it'd be like an "undo".

[imb]

Rosenthal now saying it's likely 4 for 1 as well.

 

This isn't reality right? Tell me I'm missing something.

 

WHO GIVES A horsefeathers. it's an A-ball prospect and three turds. for chapman.

[squally1313]

 

Well Matt Murton gave us 5.2 WAR in his (roughly) two seasons of at bats here at the league minimum, so if Mckinney got anywhere close to that, it's probably not a good idea to trade him for about 30 innings of relief pitching.

 

I said if he became that, it'd be worthy of a parade. Meaning I think it's very unlikely he becomes that.

 

also being a barely above average regular for 2 seasons isn't that valuable. these WAR type valuations aren't perfect. it's not htat hard to come by that type of player for a franchise who can develop (and spend) the way we can. elite play takes massive precedence.

 

I totally understand that Chapman is really good at what he does. But I don't think I'd call 25 innings of work 'elite play'.

[bcl412]

I'm not really sold that we actually have a 94 percent chance of winning the division, I'm not trying to be an anti stats guy at all, I'm far from it but I don't see a 7.5 game lead as insurmountable at all and I've seen too much crazy horsefeathers in sports to think we got it figured out statistically so I'm okay with improving our team to even win the division.

 

I also think there is value in turning games into 6 inning games. That horsefeathers would wear on an opposing team mentally, especially if out offense and starting pitching are on. I don't really think we gave up that much to get such a good player even if it's for 2 months. From a baseball point of view i personally like the deal.

[sneakypower]

"We really don't upgrade our playoff chances by adding Miller. What's it go up from 98.0% to 98.2%? So now we are looking at adding him for maybe, just maybe, the chance of having him pitch in what maybe, just maybe, a close game in what maybe, just maybe, a tight series. And maybe, just maybe, he doesn't give up a run in that game that Mike Montgomery or whoever else ultimately does give up a run. Or, you know, Andrew Miller might suck in the playoffs. Or get hurt before them or whatever. Adding a guy doesn't guarantee anything. We are just hoping he comes up big in a spot or two, where any of our other options might fail. Or it could go like last year, where we beat the dog piss out of our first opponent and then get pummeled by our second opponent."

only took Montgomery a handful of pitches as a Cub to match Aroldis's career total HR surrendered vs. LH, so...