General Cubs Chit-Chat

[cl smooth]

[Regular Show]

 

I wonder if Ross is talking about Contreras or Gomes (or maybe both) when he says our catchers didn't feel comfortable using it. I'm pretty excited about this tech and it should speed up the game considerably. Also, no more cheating Astros-type shenanigans and the various allegations and denials.

Are there rules on how you have to use it? Like, can Contreras wear it out there but not use it if a runner doesn't get to second base? I think that's the only real competitive advantage at this point, but not sure if they'll let you wear it out there and not use it.

 

Ah, I honestly have no idea... I imagine because the device is new that you're allowed to wear it out there, but don't have to use it everytime.

 

In the article I was reading about it, the catcher said when the pitch is selected an audio response is sent to the pitcher/infielders and also in the catcher's earpiece. The catcher was worried that it was too loud and that the hitter might have overheard it. You can control the volume, but I can understand the catcher being paranoid about that. I'm pretty sure the catcher can use traditional signs along with this device during the game.

 

More info on the PitchCom tech:

https://theathletic.com/3246725/2022/04/12/red-sox-trevor-story-guardians-jose-ramirez-pitchcom/

 

“To be honest, we get more conviction from using it,” Realmuto said. “First of all, it’s my voice out there. They are hearing my voice and it’s very direct in what I’m saying. It gives them a pitch and the exact location we’re looking for. There’s no confusion.

 

“Sometimes if I give them the fastball away signal (with his fingers), they don’t know if I want it down and away, up and away, two-seam, four-seam. With PitchCom, I push two buttons and it tells them, ‘Two-seam, down and away.’ Or, ‘four-seam, up and away.’”

 

Mets catcher James McCann said he occasionally experiences difficulty trying to determine whether a pitcher is shaking off the pitch type or location, though other catchers say that has not been a problem. In McCann’s view, it’s best for pitchers to determine whether they want to receive signs the old-fashioned way or through PitchCom.

 

“I tell each pitcher, whatever you want to use, if you’re comfortable using PitchCom, we’re going to go PitchCom,” McCann said. “If you want signs — and that’s what makes you feel like you, makes you feel convicted — we’ll do signs.”

 

The article mentions the pros and cons, but it mostly seems positive in the early going.

[Bertz]

It's super early, but I kind of wonder if something might be happening. For background, check out this FG article

 

 

At FanGraphs, we have plate discipline metrics dating back to 2002. Back then, pitchers located inside the zone 54% of the time. Fast forward to 2021, and that rate is down to 41.9. Over time, pitchers realized they didn’t have to throw as many strikes; they could bury a curveball in the dirt, and hitters would still chase after them, especially if said curveball possessed good movement, or throw a powerful fastball high above the zone and induce whiffs.

 

But hitters today aren’t so different compared to their predecessors; the league-wide swing rate has remained virtually stagnant since 2002. As a consequence, hitters are chasing after pitches outside the zone at an alarming rate:

 

 

Now it's early and all that jazz, but let's look at some Cubs' hitters swing rates YoY

 

Contreras: -8.4%

Happ: -4.6%

Heyward: +4.9%

Ortega: -13.1%

Wisdom: -0.8%

Hoerner: +7.3%

Schwindel: +3.5%

Madrigal: -2.1%

Frazier: -3.7%

 

While Seiya's new, his 29.2% swing rate would have been the lowest in baseball by nearly 3 points. (Yasmani Grandad at 31.9%). Put it all together, and the team is currently tied for the second lowest swing rate in baseball. Might this be a way to get a collection of mediocre hitters to punch above its weight?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Probably not easy to find, but I'd be interested to see how that is affected by count. I could see a maximizing strategy being something like"You're allowed 1 swing in a non-hitters count that doesn't have 2 strikes per game". Not in the literally enforced sense, but it's concisely distills the logic.

[Bertz]

Probably not easy to find, but I'd be interested to see how that is affected by count. I could see a maximizing strategy being something like"You're allowed 1 swing in a non-hitters count that doesn't have 2 strikes per game". Not in the literally enforced sense, but it's concisely distills the logic.

 

I think I've seen elsewhere pretty compelling evidence for guys swinging a lot more at the first pitch. So there's definitely some count specific nuance here.

 

Maybe hitters should almost treat it like counting cards? Have a couple +/- criteria to throw around based on the count, the score, the pitcher's propensity to throw strikes, etc. I'm sure they have implicit stuff like this internally, but really game it out with R&D.

[Bertz]

 

Someone would need to be 60 Day IL'd or cut to make this happen

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Mills to the 60 day maybe? The only other 60 day candidates are Miley and Andrelton, and I would guess they'd prefer to allow them the flexibility to be back as soon as physically able.

 

I don't see an obvious DFA candidate since we're 6 games into the season. Mayybe they're really aggressive with Chavez if there's something they're seeing stuff/mechanics wise they really don't like?

[Gilby]

Deichmann might not be long for the 40 man with his play and the amount of outfielders around.

[Bertz]

Yeah looking at the 40 man Deichmann or Abbott seem like the easiest cuts? Most likely is that one of the minor injuries has escalated and we just haven't heard. Probably Simmons? Because we got positive reports on both Mills and Miley in the last 48 hours, while it's been quiet on Simmons.

[Post Count Padder]

I saw some mention of Manny Rodriguez to the 60 day. Idk if that's accurate.

[Bertz]

 

Abbott AND Deichmann. St. John presumably coming up in the next few days to be the second lefty in the pen.

[d_money]

 

Abbott AND Deichmann. St. John presumably coming up in the next few days to be the second lefty in the pen.

Abbott was the orgs pitcher of the year a couple years ago. Assuming the book is closed on him.

 

The lack of SP development is frustrating

[Irrelevant Dude]

That sucks for Rivas. He is a better lineup option than several other guys on the current roster.

 

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I’m so removed from this team that I have no idea who you all mean when you say Rivas, and I don’t care to look him up.

[Clem Fandango]

Locke St. John sounds like the villainous rich kid in an 80s teen comedy.

[NOLA]

Locke St. John sounds like the villainous rich kid in an 80s teen comedy.

I was thinking the high school exchange student in a fish-out-of-water 80’s teen comedy.

[Post Count Padder]

I'm annoyed about Abbott. Really thought he at least could be an interesting relieved and would rather think get a look than Letter.

 

And yeah aside from Adbert who's how hurt we really have no homegrown starters to speak of for like a decade.

[Bertz]

I'm curious how to put the offense in context right now. Of course the biggest and most important context is "it's only been 9 games," but they've been really good. On the one hand, they've played 4 games in Coors this far, which will goose any team's offense. On the other hand Pittsburgh and Wrigley in April are sizeably pitcher friendly, AND the Cubs have face 4 SPs who were stars last year. The Cubs early on are:

 

- 8th in runs per game

- 2nd in wRC+

- 7th in walk rate

- 7th best in strikeout rate

- 9th in ISO

- 2nd in BABIP

- Highest in groundball rate (by a lot)

- Lowest in popup rate

- 9th in exit velo

- 7th in hard hit rate

- 11th lowest in chase rate

 

The groundball rate is a problem, but they're doing literally everything else well. And on a player-by-player basis, it's also mostly positive or at least mixed news. I'm not sure there's anyone who I feel significantly worse about than I did 10 days ago except Schwindel. Maybe Ortega?

[CubinNY]

I'm curious how to put the offense in context right now. Of course the biggest and most important context is "it's only been 9 games," but they've been really good. On the one hand, they've played 4 games in Coors this far, which will goose any team's offense. On the other hand Pittsburgh and Wrigley in April are sizeably pitcher friendly, AND the Cubs have face 4 SPs who were stars last year. The Cubs early on are:

 

- 8th in runs per game

- 2nd in wRC+

- 7th in walk rate

- 7th best in strikeout rate

- 9th in ISO

- 2nd in BABIP

- Highest in groundball rate (by a lot)

- Lowest in popup rate

- 9th in exit velo

- 7th in hard hit rate

- 11th lowest in chase rate

 

The groundball rate is a problem, but they're doing literally everything else well. And on a player-by-player basis, it's also mostly positive or at least mixed news. I'm not sure there's anyone who I feel significantly worse about than I did 10 days ago except Schwindel. Maybe Ortega?

They're the little engine that could right now. I still don't care for Madrigal, he's going to be .285/.311/.325 for the season. He might take less than 30 walks this season. Seiya has been awesome and looks like he's destined for a really strong season with his approach.

[Bertz]

They're the little engine that could right now. I still don't care for Madrigal, he's going to be .285/.311/.325 for the season. He might take less than 30 walks this season. Seiya has been awesome and looks like he's destined for a really strong season with his approach.

 

I'd actually put Madrigal in the "mixed bag" camp. He's hitting everything on the ground right now, and that's clearly a big problem. But he's hitting the hell out of the ball, his hard hit rate right now would have been 2nd among qualifiers last year. His patience has been fine as well (Statcast says 53rd percentile). His expected stats have him as a league average-ish hitter so far, even with the huge number of ground balls.

 

He probably starts lifting the ball more and gives back quite a bit on the EV side, ending up where he was with the Sox. Though if he can improve his launch angle AND keep the juice in his bat, that's essentially DJ Lemahieu.

[We Got The Whole 9]

4th in contact and 4th lowest swstrk% is really impressive too. And that's with Heyward whiffing way more than he usually does, sitting at a 67% contact.

 

We currently have 4 regulars running a swstrk under 5% and then Yan has an absurdly low 2.9%.

 

Night and day from the past 7 years.

[UMFan83]

4th in contact and 4th lowest swstrk% is really impressive too. And that's with Heyward whiffing way more than he usually does, sitting at a 67% contact.

 

We currently have 4 regulars running a swstrk under 5% and then Yan has an absurdly low 2.9%.

 

Night and day from the past 7 years.

 

And while I hated trading away Bryzzo and Javy over a 24 hour period at the last possible moment, this is sort of what I was hoping for. Jed had the opportunity to build an offense exactly as he wanted it to be given the massive amount of money to spend, the lack of cornerstone players to build around, and the desire to not go into a long rebuild. For several years he and Theo were stuck with their best players having similar flaws and no room to really build around them with different types of players. Still not sure why they did not pull the plug earlier when they could have gotten a better return and possibly salvaged some of the championship core but whatever.

[David]

[Tryptamine]

 

Now imagine if they had Correa and with Davis in the wings, this offense would actually be kind of exciting.

[Bertz]

 

I wish it was easier to find how guys do against velo. The data exists, you see it on broadcasts, but it's not easy to see anywhere.

 

But I think that's the one open question with Seiya. I don't believe he's really turned around a good fastball. He's wrecked some at like 92, and offspeed stuff from more flamethrower types, but I think he's mostly fought off real velo.

 

Even if he doesn't do damage on a bigtime fastballs I don't think that precludes him from being very good, but it might preclude him from continuing to do insane Juan Soto things.