Minor League Musings

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I know we can't really dig into the minutiae of Kyle's minor league performance like we can Caissie's these days but Kyle's approach today has been informed by his experience in facing Major League pitching, the era of coaches/orgs stressing pulling the ball in the air and having 8 years of practice doing that. For example, Kris Bryant's spray chart from the minors to majors would look like a direct contrast as his calling card in the minors was oppo shots and he soon learned that that approach didn't work for him in MLB. Comparing their high-minors performance is more sensible to me. It's not just "OF who hits the ball hard". Owen, if he would poke a few more over the fence, would be running a really high TTO right now. Last year it was really high, not far from where Kyle was at that level. To me, it's definitely the TTO and EV that will be Caissie's calling card. Who knows what his batted ball distribution will look like as a big leaguer. I don't think it's fair to compare the 2023-24 versions of them. 

 

I am skeptical of Owen adding any value beyond the bat. Time will tell, obviously. 

Kyle Schwarber's approach hasn't really changed, though. His swing% in 2015 in 0-0 counts was 29% compared to a little over 27% now. He was equally as pull heavy then as now.  He did swing less in general in 2023 to 2015, but the change in swing rate seems to be mostly laying off the super-high stuff. It's refined but he still has a generally similar approach to hitting. A good reminder as well, 2015 was the same season that Schwarber played in Double-A, it's quite unlikely his approach is vastly different over the course of the season, even at different levels. 

Secondly, I think we need to remember that Owen Caissie was playing in some different conditions at Double-A. First, he's a whole two years younger than Kyle Schwarber and didn't have the benefit of power-five college baseball. As well, Owen Caissie dealt with a baseball experiment in the first half of his Double-A experience, a baseball that has been since removed. Looking at his TTO, he had 30 singles, 15 doubles, 1 triple over his last 50, non-pre-tacked baseball games. Schwarber had 58 games in Double-A in which he posted 39 hits, 10 doubles, and one triple. Caissie hit just about as many non walks-home runs-K's as Schwarber in a smaller sample size and at a different age-gap to the league. I think that context matters. 

Lastly, what a player's "calling card" is kind of hard to determine. We often think one thing, but data doesn't always bear that out. While I appreciate that in 2015 we thought Kris Bryant hit a lot of opposite field stuff in the minors, I cannot prove or disprove that. What I can do is look at consistent data from Caissie and Schwarber. Even in 2015, Schwarber was pull-only. Caissie has yet to show a spray chart that looks the same.

In the end, you're free to have your own opinion, but again, I don't see anything to suggest a comparison. Caissie doesn't do things the way Schwarber does. He doesn't do things the way Schwarber did in 2015, and the way Schwarber does things in 2023 (last full season) isn't very different from 2015. Maybe Caissie will change his approach...we're looking a month of statcast data for him...but if the argument that maybe Caissie will change is the basis for why they're being compared...that feels spurious at best.

[muntjack]

In 2022, I was watching Emmanuel Rodriguez (19, low-A, Twins) closely.  He was posting a comical .492 OBP about halfway through the season before a knee injury ended his year.  

Two years later, he has a .507 OBP and a 215 wRC+ in AA.  He's currently playing in my hometown and the defense is +, as well.  Kid looks as good as any minor leaguer I've ever seen.  

Edited May 1, 2024 by muntjack

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Final Extended Spring Training stats from Arizona Phil: https://www.thecubreporter.com/2024-cubs-extended-spring-training-final-stats

Looks like the standout hitters who will play in the ACL were Anderson Suriel, Adán Sánchez and Eriandys Ramón.

The best pitcher by ERA and BB-rate was Yenrri Rojas while Luis Reyes had the best K-rate.

[Bertz]

 

 

[Bertz]

I think if we were ranking prospects most likely to be part of a deadline trade of substance Triantos would be #1 by quite a margin.

[We Got The Whole 9]

What is BASH?

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What is BASH?

It's something the NorthsideBound guys made up.  Basically OPS+ with an age relative to league component added in.  A pretty good idea honestly but not something I'm incorporating into my parlance.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-5-7-24/

Pedro Ramírez was the 9th hottest hitter in baseball:

Quote

9. Pedro Ramirez, 2B/3B, Cubs

Team: High-A South Bend (Midwest)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: .481/.500/.741 (13-for-27) 5 R, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 SB.

The Scoop: The Cubs have one of the most stacked farm systems in baseball right now, and the development of prospects like Ramirez is one of the reasons. Overshadowed to some extent by uber-prospect Jefferson Rojas, Ramirez is a name to watch himself because he’s always hit. He announced himself by hitting .359 in the Dominican Summer League in 2021. He followed that up by hitting .329 in the Arizona Complex League in 2022. His .266/.358/.404 slash line in the Carolina League is quite solid for a 19-year-old, and he’s been even better this year, hitting a Midwest League best .365 so far. (JC)

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brody McCullough promoted to AA.

[Bertz]

The contact numbers are sub-acceptable, but if you want to hold out hope on Brennen the rest of his offensive game has come back and maybe the contact gets into a more reasonable range as he makes up for lost playing time and knocks off more rust.

[Bertz]

 

As a corresponding move I'd love to see Eduarniel Nunez head to Iowa.  Let's start pushing guys who might impact the MLB pen a little aggressively.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

As a corresponding move I'd love to see Eduarniel Nunez head to Iowa.  Let's start pushing guys who might impact the MLB pen a little aggressively.

Sounds like Zac Leigh's music

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Sounds like Zac Leigh's music

Yeah he's another good one.  And Michael Arias isn't ready yet but I don't need him to string too many good outings in a row before he heads to Iowa either.

The bullpen situation is dire enough that I'd love to get these stuff-forward guys to Iowa pronto, and then if/when any of them are throwing strikes (however fleetingly) bring them up to the MLB pen until that unit gets stabilized.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

 

As a corresponding move I'd love to see Eduarniel Nunez head to Iowa.  Let's start pushing guys who might impact the MLB pen a little aggressively.

You got your wish. It’s Nuñez getting the bump to AAA (I would’ve preferred Leigh too).

[Post Count Padder]

Hodge got the call up but the pen is taxed and injured. Wieck and Riley Martin have looked quite good. Either of them get a shot soon? or Carl's Jr?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Post Count Padder said:

Hodge got the call up but the pen is taxed and injured. Wieck and Riley Martin have looked quite good. Either of them get a shot soon? or Carl's Jr?

Wieck’s stuff has backed up so I doubt he’s an option.

I’d think it’s CEJ or Sam McWilliams if they add someone to the 40-man.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[profisme]

16 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Never thought he was LHP, always thought he was more of a dickish ump. Glad to see they are going to make him work to get to the bigs though. 

[Stratos]

Watched an interview on Youtube with the Iowa play-by-play guy.  He thinks the initial control issues that Horton has had and Brown had last year could be due to transition between different balls in AA to AAA.

He also said Horton is apparently working in a split more that is looking like another potential out pitch for him.

His velo drop is interesting, with all these injuries from flamethrowers and spikes in velo i'm wondering if the Cubs are telling him to ease off the fb a little, especially while still early in the season building up and still not far from TJ?

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Watched an interview on Youtube with the Iowa play-by-play guy.  He thinks the initial control issues that Horton has had and Brown had last year could be due to transition between different balls in AA to AAA.

He also said Horton is apparently working in a split more that is looking like another potential out pitch for him.

His velo drop is interesting, with all these injuries from flamethrowers and spikes in velo i'm wondering if the Cubs are telling him to ease off the fb a little, especially while still early in the season building up and still not far from TJ?

Ive suggested something similar in the past. Keegan Thompson saw a velo spike when returned to Chicago this year, and Steele's velo was down a bit at Triple-A. I can't say for sure that they're having guys ease off, but there's a small pattern there. 

I'm also not entirely sure we're not seeing something where the Cubs are playing with the idea of movement on the fastball being created with a small tick off from the velo, too. His fastball movement in Double-A was considered to be "okay" at best, so I wonder how much of this is tinker-and-play time, as well.  The Cubs have seemingly been big on the concept of seam shifted wake, and I wonder how much that's playing in here, too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

His velo drop is interesting, with all these injuries from flamethrowers and spikes in velo i'm wondering if the Cubs are telling him to ease off the fb a little, especially while still early in the season building up and still not far from TJ?

I don't think there has been a velo drop of any real magnitude, seems pretty clear from several examples from multiple pitchers at this point that Iowa's gun is not very well calibrated.  Anything beyond that I'd attribute to weather moreso than any other factor.

[Bertz]

I'd be very reticent to assume measurement error.  I think Keegan Thompson's the only one who's velo was anomalously low at Iowa.  Everyone else even if they've thrown a little harder in MLB than they did in AAA you'd probably chalk it up to weather or role.  Like Porter Hodge, the newest callup, was 95.7 his first outing in MLB and 95.6 his last outing at Iowa.

I think Horton's some combination of getting stretched out (he's sitting 95 early in games and fading deeper) and possibly spin/movement changes.  I believe he previously had a carrying fastball and at Iowa it's switched to a cut-ride, maybe that impacts his raw velo.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I'd be very reticent to assume measurement error.  I think Keegan Thompson's the only one who's velo was anomalously low at Iowa.  Everyone else even if they've thrown a little harder in MLB than they did in AAA you'd probably chalk it up to weather or role.  Like Porter Hodge, the newest callup, was 95.7 his first outing in MLB and 95.6 his last outing at Iowa.

I think Horton's some combination of getting stretched out (he's sitting 95 early in games and fading deeper) and possibly spin/movement changes.  I believe he previously had a carrying fastball and at Iowa it's switched to a cut-ride, maybe that impacts his raw velo.

I actually think the last little bit is where I settle on the velo drop. There's some reason to believe that velocity (high and low) can increase or decrease movement. The Cubs love things like seam shifted wake and creating and tinkering with pitches in a way that creates movement or hides spin. My best guess is that they're making these changes now at Iowa as he gets used to the slightly different baseball to make his fastball go from "fine" to "really good" . A slight step back in velocity may add enough run to the fastball that actually makes it better.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Ive suggested something similar in the past. Keegan Thompson saw a velo spike when returned to Chicago this year, and Steele's velo was down a bit at Triple-A. I can't say for sure that they're having guys ease off, but there's a small pattern there. 

I'm also not entirely sure we're not seeing something where the Cubs are playing with the idea of movement on the fastball being created with a small tick off from the velo, too. His fastball movement in Double-A was considered to be "okay" at best, so I wonder how much of this is tinker-and-play time, as well.  The Cubs have seemingly been big on the concept of seam shifted wake, and I wonder how much that's playing in here, too.

The Cubs generally haven't seemed to put much emphasis on acquiring velo guys.  As an org they seem to like quirky fastballs, command, funky deliveries, splitters/changeups, rather than Drivelining every pitcher to the stratosphere, especially SP.

[Jason Ross]

33 minutes ago, Stratos said:

The Cubs generally haven't seemed to put much emphasis on acquiring velo guys.  As an org they seem to like quirky fastballs, command, funky deliveries, splitters/changeups, rather than Drivelining every pitcher to the stratosphere, especially SP.

I'm not sure that's really true. They've drafted players like Luke Little, Jaxson Wiggins, Cade Horton and Jackson Ferris lately. They've developed guys like Porter Hodge and Michael Arias.  They've traded for Daniel Palencia and Ben Brown...

The Cubs MLB side doesn't have a ton of velo guys, but that's because they've added more velo through draft recently. They're also one of the orgs over the last few years who have developed velo; guys like Wicks and Assad have added velo under their tutelage. 

I do think the Cubs enjoy playing with shapes and movement but they're not anti-velo nor have they shied away from it. I think they're really interested in uniqueness as their driving factor. Ben Brown's curveball. Horton's slider. Hodge's cutter, Wick's changeup...