Minor League Musings

[Transmogrified Tiger]

(McWilliams has given up 4 HR in 11 IP)

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, McWilliams right now is clearly a stuff-pop-up guy. There are at least a few small positives on the HR front here here: his xHR is actually 3, so he's had a bit of bad luck there. He's also getting over 20% in zone swing and miss (above Triple-A average) and a 37.9% chase rate (way over Triple-A average), and he's not showing signs of being a walk machine. My hope here is that McWilliams has improved/worked on some of his pitches and mechanically, he's working through commanding that kind of stuff that he just hasn't had in his arsenal before as well as working through being a professional pitcher once again. Lottery ticket for sure, but probably worth a monitor. As rough as our BP has been and injuries...McWilliams popping up as a RHP option in the bullpen in June or July doesn't sound super shocking.

[Post Count Padder]

Lol I picked Kohl Franklin and Reginald Preciado as my weepers this season and so far they're proving me wrong. Very early, obviously.

[Hrubes20]

So Zyhir Hope is going nuclear to start the year. I would be wildly pissed off about that, if Busch wasn’t looking so good at the big league level.

[PackLandVA]

1 hour ago, Hrubes20 said:

So Zyhir Hope is going nuclear to start the year. I would be wildly pissed off about that, if Busch wasn’t looking so good at the big league level.

Jackson Ferris - 2 starts in A+ Ball: 6.1 innings, 7/9 K/BB, 7.11 ERA, .261 AVG Against

[Hrubes20]

8 hours ago, PackLandVA said:

Jackson Ferris - 2 starts in A+ Ball: 6.1 innings, 7/9 K/BB, 7.11 ERA, .261 AVG Against

Never had any issue with Ferris getting dealt. Trading minor league arms for minor league bats with both production and 1st round pedigree is usually a winning proposition.  

[Bertz]

 

Another potential slider specialist if Cuas can't get fixed

[Jason Ross]

41 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

Another potential slider specialist if Cuas can't get fixed

Love this. Hodge has been a personal favorite of mine dating back to 2021. Last year was rough with the control but he's throwing much better this year. His slider is very much like Brown; unicorn shape, release point and movement. A one of one. If he can throw just enough strikes, there's an MLB leverage type there.

[Post Count Padder]

Did I miss something? They added Hodge to the 40 man in November but now he's not listed on the 40-man roster. Did he get waived at some point or is the Cubs' site wrong?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Did I miss something? They added Hodge to the 40 man in November but now he's not listed on the 40-man roster. Did he get waived at some point or is the Cubs' site wrong?

Pretty sure the site is wrong, this also explains my dumb way of checking the 40 man(counting names on the roster page) has been confusingly inaccurate for several months.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Is Brennen Davis back yet?  Or do we at least know his whereabouts?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Is Brennen Davis back yet?  Or do we at least know his whereabouts?

He's rehabbing in South Bend, 3 games so far.

[PackLandVA]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Is Brennen Davis back yet?  Or do we at least know his whereabouts?

Anyone care to speculate what his next injury will be? And how much time he’ll miss?

[Jason Ross]

Good to see Valdez back. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Aliendo get's a mention on this Athletic article on 20 prospects off to fast starts: https://theathletic.com/5456544/2024/04/29/underrated-minor-league-prospects-matt-wilkinson/

Quote

Pablo Aliendo, C, Chicago Cubs (not ranked): Catchers who can hit and play defense are a rare breed, but the Cubs might have one in Aliendo. A native of Venezuela, Aliendo played all of last season in Double A, hitting .231/.332/.458 with a career-high 16 homers. He’s repeating the level to start this year, and is off to a strong start with a .250/.346/.591 line and four homers in 14 games.

Aliendo will turn 23 in late May. He’s shown consistent improvement, both offensively and defensively, every year he’s been in pro ball. Offensively, his power is his best tool. Defensively, he has quick feet, the ability to frame pitches and a strong arm.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

I don't know Casali's reputation as a pitcher whisperer, but with how rough Gomes has looked to open this year I'm starting to wonder if Curt's the best option at backup catcher right now.

With how injured the team is that's not a move you make right now, but it's probably something to consider if trends continue another couple of weeks.

[We Got The Whole 9]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Quote

10. James Triantos, 2B, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .348/.333/.733 (8-for-23), 4 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Over the course of his career, Triantos has hit, hit and hit some more. That trend has continued this spring in Double-A, where he opened as one of the Southern League’s youngest players. So far, that hasn’t hindered his production. The righty swinger makes plenty of contact, doesn’t chase but also might hit the ball on the ground more than one would like. Still, the results are showing up in spades. He powered up in a big way this week, with five of his eight hits going for extra bases, including his second and third home runs of the season. (JN)

 

[Bertz]

[We Got The Whole 9]

He feels a lot like Schwarber, right?

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

He feels a lot like Schwarber, right?

No. Not in my estimation. It feels like an easy comparison of "OF'er who hits the ball hard" but I think they do things differently. I think Caissie has less three-outcome-potential and I like the progress he's made with his hit tool over the years. Caissie swings more than Schwarber and that's been a big point of emphasis for him; swing more, don't find yourself in bad counts early because you're too patient. Keep in mind we're talking Triple-A data here, but Caissie is swinging at 42% of pitches against RHP. Compare that to Schwarber last year who was at 37%. Caissie also swings earlier in the count: 37% on 0-0 pitches where as Schwarber, last year was at 23%. 

Caissie also uses the field a lot better in general. I've got Caissie's 2024 hit chart below and Schwarber's 2023. Schwarbs is pull or nothing, where as Caissie has always been someone who isn't as pull heavy. 

Not to say I wouldn't like to see Caissie pull the ball a but more, but I think the way they go about hitting is quite stark, and even with just a month of statcast Caissie data, you can see that they approach things differently. Caissie isn't elevating the ball right now in Triple-A, but I think part of that has been how he's been pitched; pitchers are only now coming inside on him, so hopefully that'll change.

Lastly, I think they are different monsters defensively. Caissie is far more natural in the OF than Schwarber is/was. Caissie has some real athleticism to him out there, and a 60+ grade arm in RF. 

In the end, I wouldn't compare the too very directly. 

[Bertz]

Yeah I think the two big things you'll see different between them:

- Outfield assists aside, Schwarber was a horrible defender basically from the jump and is now catastrophically bad.  Caissie will probably be vaguely average initially and then slide from there

- Despite probably ending up with similar K numbers, I think Caissie likely hits for a good bit higher average.  Some of that is his approach and being less launch angle-y and less pull happy like 1908 pointed out.  Some of it is not at all to his credit and due to the shift ban.  But I think you see 20-30 extra points of average with Caissie, though he will cede some dongs in the process

[We Got The Whole 9]

27 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

No. Not in my estimation. It feels like an easy comparison of "OF'er who hits the ball hard" but I think they do things differently. I think Caissie has less three-outcome-potential and I like the progress he's made with his hit tool over the years. Caissie swings more than Schwarber and that's been a big point of emphasis for him; swing more, don't find yourself in bad counts early because you're too patient. Keep in mind we're talking Triple-A data here, but Caissie is swinging at 42% of pitches against RHP. Compare that to Schwarber last year who was at 37%. Caissie also swings earlier in the count: 37% on 0-0 pitches where as Schwarber, last year was at 23%. 

Caissie also uses the field a lot better in general. I've got Caissie's 2024 hit chart below and Schwarber's 2023. Schwarbs is pull or nothing, where as Caissie has always been someone who isn't as pull heavy. 

Not to say I wouldn't like to see Caissie pull the ball a but more, but I think the way they go about hitting is quite stark, and even with just a month of statcast Caissie data, you can see that they approach things differently. Caissie isn't elevating the ball right now in Triple-A, but I think part of that has been how he's been pitched; pitchers are only now coming inside on him, so hopefully that'll change.

Lastly, I think they are different monsters defensively. Caissie is far more natural in the OF than Schwarber is/was. Caissie has some real athleticism to him out there, and a 60+ grade arm in RF. 

In the end, I wouldn't compare the too very directly. 

I know we can't really dig into the minutiae of Kyle's minor league performance like we can Caissie's these days but Kyle's approach today has been informed by his experience in facing Major League pitching, the era of coaches/orgs stressing pulling the ball in the air and having 8 years of practice doing that. For example, Kris Bryant's spray chart from the minors to majors would look like a direct contrast as his calling card in the minors was oppo shots and he soon learned that that approach didn't work for him in MLB. Comparing their high-minors performance is more sensible to me. It's not just "OF who hits the ball hard". Owen, if he would poke a few more over the fence, would be running a really high TTO right now. Last year it was really high, not far from where Kyle was at that level. To me, it's definitely the TTO and EV that will be Caissie's calling card. Who knows what his batted ball distribution will look like as a big leaguer. I don't think it's fair to compare the 2023-24 versions of them. 

 

I am skeptical of Owen adding any value beyond the bat. Time will tell, obviously.