Minor League Musings

[sneakypower]

just a minor note but those other orgs. win playoff series sometimes

and have currently top-10 and not bottom-10 farm systems

[craig]

Yeah, Jason, agree to disagree a little!  :):). (Fun to discuss!)  Of course, any low prospect, it's going to depend on whether they can actually hit, and most won't.  So from that sense, Bretower, Cruz, Rosario, Mathis, Hartshorn, Conrad, you can kinda all throw them into the same "well, if they hit" basket.  I'm just suggesting that a senior-sign 8th-round sub-slot DH who never hit for actual game-power in college, I'd put him into a different "well, if they hit" basket than a 3rd-round 18-year-old with ceiling!!!  For Cruz, you posted a scouting report basically written up from when he was 17.  (They had no basis to change it entering his 2025 debut season.).  Part of D+D is that 17-year-olds can make develop, perhaps more easily than 23-year-olds.  

Heh heh, part of my mindset is that I have pretty strong respect for Kantro's drafting!  :):)  When he spends a 3rd on a guy, or spends two million (Hartshorn) or $1.6 (Wing), I immediately put them into very different baskets than sub-slot senior-sign type guys.  I've developed a somewhat blind faith in Kantro's pick logic!  :):)

I'd also kinda differentiate an ancient back-of-bullpen rental like Rodgers from Siroka.  Very different values.  Obviously Siroka instantly got reinjured, and ended up being worthless.  But Hoyer saw him as a rotation starter in his 20's, who might help reach and succeed in the 2025 playoffs, and who might well be an extension candidate *if* we liked what we saw and he liked his experience here pitching in front of our defense.  Again, I'm exaggerating the nuance, but I don't think Siroka/Rodgers were any more equivalent as acquisitions than Cruz, Rosario, or Bretower were as trade pieces.  

Just as tangent:  I didn't complain about the Rosario trade at the time.  

[Post Count Padder]

And FG released their Top Nationals prospects today. Cruz at 4

 

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit	Raw Power	Game Power	Run	Fielding	Throw
20/40	50/60	25/60	50/50	35/60	55

 

 

Quote

Cruz is shaping up to be a lower calorie Junior Caminero, where the bat speed and weaponized power are enough to really value him as a prospect even though he still has some hit tool risk due to breaking ball identification issues. He moves into the Top 100 with this update.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 hours ago, craig said:

I get the point.  I do think Cruz is in a different world from Rosario, much less Bretower.  Bretower was an ancient K-machine whose contact problems had been sustained over many years, and whose contact problems were too severe to even hit many HR's in college.  Totally different.  Rosario played low-A at age 20, and had K'd almost 40% of his AB at age 20 in Myrtle over a full season.  His K-problem was pretty well established.   Cruz has just barely turned 19, is at A+, did not have notable K problem in rookie last year, and has only 51 AB this season.  Completely different prospect.  For sure, K's may end up killing him, they do for most prospects.  But the SSS does not have nearly the same red flags as for old-guy-no-game-power Bretower, or for older Rosario with time-established K-problem red flags.  Cruz was a way better prospect then, and now.  

To me, the red flag on Cruz is the 60% contact rate this season.

The Tatis and Caminero comps seem far too aggressive over 3 weeks of success in A-ball.

(And the Cubs should still be having internal discussions and clean up their internal scouting about how they undervalued a prospect that BA and FG can so quickly hype up.)

[CubinNY]

I’m not sure where to put this. We’ve lived in Alabama for 15 years. In that time I think the Montgomery Biscuits have been bought and sold on three or four occasions. Through all of the the team maintained a fan focus. The field was alway immaculate. They had “the Biscuit Bunch”, a bunch of local college kids who were like cheerleaders/brand ambassadors and a mascot named Mo. Multiple people taking tickets at the gates. Lots of food choices and the in between innings shenanigans that many minor league parks have. Overall, it was a fun atmosphere and they consistently drew well, especially this time of the year. 
 

This fall the team was bought by some private equity group who owns a few other teams. Last night my wife and I went to a game for our 22 Wedding Anniversary. I couldn’t believe the difference. The field was in awful shape. I’ve played on better taken care of high school fields. The video board had a huge bank of lights that weren’t working. They tried to play a hide the ball game but you couldn’t follow it because of the broken bank of lights. The biscuit bunch was one guy standing on the dug out trying to get people to clap. Gates were closed so there were only two places to get in. It was striking. The food and beer choices were limited. And no Mo mascot. I’m so sad. It was always fun watching games there. 

Edited April 25 by CubinNY

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[JunkyardWalrus]

11 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

That's pretty good, right?

[NorthsideAvenger]

I see Ben Johnson is ready to make his pro baseball debut.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

Bryan sort of gets at it but one of the most encouraging things about the farm thus far is the mid level guys stepping up.

Despite having four guys make various T100s and a bunch of interesting guys in A Ball, the farm didn't rank well this winter largely because it lacked the 45 FV types that really make for high end depth.  But with Ayers and Mathis and Caple and Sanders etc. you're starting to get like an actual fight for the back of the top 10 again, as opposed to a farm where there's not much difference between 9 and 19.

In terms of magnitude it's Hartshorn/Ramirez/Rojas and then a sizable gap to everything else, but that depth is important especially if you're looking to be active in July.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kevin Camacho to the IL. Eli Jerzembeck off the IL.

Yahil Melendez assigned to the MB roster.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Leonel Espinoza off the IL. Ángel Cepeda placed on the IL.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Hrubes20]

17 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

I look forward to the impending Juan Cabada breakout.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Naz Mulé to the developmental list.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

https://youtu.be/nw4O4UBFmjo?si=vqAKi8Ck3wjfkMRM

I didn't realize he only started hitting lefty as a senior in HS

Edited 23 hours ago by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Geographyhater8888]

Any word on Ethan Conrad? 

[Jason Ross]

32 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Any word on Ethan Conrad? 

Don't expect one yet. Back injury was supposed to keep him out for at least April and considering his injury last year, the Cubs will be extra cautious.. The Complex league is about to kick up tomorrow. What will happen more than likely is someone like Rich Biesterfield will toss up a few photos of Conrad working in Arizona or AZ Phil will see him out on the backfields before we hear anything else official. Those guys are great for those things. And then he'll popup in an ACL game.

[Geographyhater8888]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Don't expect one yet. Back injury was supposed to keep him out for at least April and considering his injury last year, the Cubs will be extra cautious.. The Complex league is about to kick up tomorrow. What will happen more than likely is someone like Rich Biesterfield will toss up a few photos of Conrad working in Arizona or AZ Phil will see him out on the backfields before we hear anything else official. Those guys are great for those things. And then he'll popup in an ACL game.

I’m also wondering who they’ll trade for a starting pitcher. The offense is too good to waste for a second year in a row.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m also wondering who they’ll trade for a starting pitcher. The offense is too good to waste for a second year in a row.

Who knows? The way the market has been for the past few years, it's probably well too early to even consider. Teams will have to begin to wave the white flag, but with how April shook out; if you're in the AL, your record probably sucks but so does everyone else's. In the NL, your record is probably over .500...but so is everyone else's. 

Cubs should have ammo, but as they made it clear last year, the prices were expensive and they were unwilling to make the kind of commitment others wanted for top arms. So I think any addition will be smaller than larger. 

If there's a positive, in theory the Cubs could be just fine. A playoff rotation of Cabrera, Boyd, and Shota is fine and while the Steele injury isn't great news or anything, it's not so bad that we have to cancel his season yet. You add him to that and that's a good four arms. You're missing a "playoff ace" but maybe you make up for it with four strong arms and a bullpen. They definitely need a BP arm or two but hey, they're pretty cheap comparative. 

(the down side is that the way the season has gone, expecting those four to make it to the finish line feels like a longshot, but I guess at some point, you'd think they'd stop all being broken)

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Who knows? The way the market has been for the past few years, it's probably well too early to even consider. Teams will have to begin to wave the white flag, but with how April shook out; if you're in the AL, your record probably sucks but so does everyone else's. In the NL, your record is probably over .500...but so is everyone else's. 

Cubs should have ammo, but as they made it clear last year, the prices were expensive and they were unwilling to make the kind of commitment others wanted for top arms. So I think any addition will be smaller than larger. 

If there's a positive, in theory the Cubs could be just fine. A playoff rotation of Cabrera, Boyd, and Shota is fine and while the Steele injury isn't great news or anything, it's not so bad that we have to cancel his season yet. You add him to that and that's a good four arms. You're missing a "playoff ace" but maybe you make up for it with four strong arms and a bullpen. They definitely need a BP arm or two but hey, they're pretty cheap comparative. 

(the down side is that the way the season has gone, expecting those four to make it to the finish line feels like a longshot, but I guess at some point, you'd think they'd stop all being broken)

Especially with the increase in innings and pitch count lately from starters thanks to the bullpen injuries. What I like about the team this year compared to last year is the ability to get on base more and the offense thus far has been a lot less volatile. That’s more sustainable on a month to month basis. 

But another arm is needed if you want to get past the Dodgers without the ‘anything can happen’ mindset.

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Who knows? The way the market has been for the past few years, it's probably well too early to even consider. Teams will have to begin to wave the white flag, but with how April shook out; if you're in the AL, your record probably sucks but so does everyone else's. In the NL, your record is probably over .500...but so is everyone else's. 

Cubs should have ammo, but as they made it clear last year, the prices were expensive and they were unwilling to make the kind of commitment others wanted for top arms. So I think any addition will be smaller than larger. 

If there's a positive, in theory the Cubs could be just fine. A playoff rotation of Cabrera, Boyd, and Shota is fine and while the Steele injury isn't great news or anything, it's not so bad that we have to cancel his season yet. You add him to that and that's a good four arms. You're missing a "playoff ace" but maybe you make up for it with four strong arms and a bullpen. They definitely need a BP arm or two but hey, they're pretty cheap comparative. 

(the down side is that the way the season has gone, expecting those four to make it to the finish line feels like a longshot, but I guess at some point, you'd think they'd stop all being broken)

Is Boyd done? I have seen several people basically not consider him when talking playoff rotation. He has struggled some out of the gate, but hasn’t he gotten a lot of swing and miss. Is his injury a precursor of what is expected to come? Can’t the beginning of Robinson just be a slow start? Or are all his underlying numbers also down? Maybe they limit his innings some this year and he isn’t gassed come the playoffs? 

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Is Boyd done? I have seen several people basically not consider him when talking playoff rotation. He has struggled some out of the gate, but hasn’t he gotten a lot of swing and miss. Is his injury a precursor of what is expected to come? Can’t the beginning of Robinson just be a slow start? Or are all his underlying numbers also down? Maybe they limit his innings some this year and he isn’t gassed come the playoffs? 

Boyd remains in the 86th percentile of chase, the 90th in whiff, the 93rd in K% and the 79th in walk rate. His FIP is 1.80 and his xFIP is 2.35. Sure, his fastball velocity is a little down (92.4mph last start) but anyone who thinks "Matthew Boyd is done" right now is ridiculous. Like, I might not expect him to make an All-Star game, but once he kind of gets into a groove and is fully healthy and up to speed, he's probably going to be a fine MLB starter. 

To put it another way, if Boyd is done, so is Jesus Luzardo. 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m also wondering who they’ll trade for a starting pitcher. The offense is too good to waste for a second year in a row.

I really don't think we can rely on the trade market for a starting pitcher, considering the highest rated SPs traded at the deadline last year were *checks notes* Merrill Kelly and a recovering from injury Shane Bieber.  Remember, the Cubs acquired Michael Soroka and a good chunk of us thought it was a decent deal at the time.

What the Cubs are going to need is for duct tape and chewing gum holding the rotation together to last until Wiggins and Steele are ready to contribute.