40-man Roster/Rule 5 Discussion

[Guest]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Would have protected Black over Vogelbach.

[rawaction]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Would have protected Black over Vogelbach.

 

Black almost certainly gets nabbed, I'd imagine.

[Guest]

Devil's avocado: Vogelbach is like a month of very good AAA performance from having very real trade value, and Black needs about a month of very good AAA performance to be Yoervis Medina.

[davell]

Adding the 3 arms in the last few days spelt doom for Black or any other pitchers we left unprotected. We'll probably lose a guy in the Rule 5, but not likely to be of any consequence.

[UMFan83]

The Soriano trade was for nothing!!

[bukie]

Beyond the obvious 3 (Candelerio, Contreres, and Johnskn, though I also think Vogelbach who will be later traded,) I guess what it comes down to is whether Black, Francescan, and Jensen more valuable as assets than borderline replacement level depth like Jokisch, Beeler, and Rosscup.

 

#bukiesignal

http://ak-hdl.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr01/2013/9/19/10/anigif_enhanced-buzz-12279-1379599236-35.gif

[craig]

#Cubs add .... Dan Vogelbach.

 

Shocked/stunned.

 

Will be interested to see whether the guy can ever add any power. His HR rate has gone down each year. I'd thought this past year might be time for a bump, using the old "FSL-pitchers-league" bit. But it continued plateau/decline. Hopefully he'll still bump it up some next year, somehow. But after 4-years straight, I suspect he probably just doesn't have the quickness to hit a lot of game HR's.

[Guest]

Eric Longenhagen (ESPN) on the guys the Cubs have added to the 40-man:

 

Willson Contreras, C - Contreras was a sexy target for sellers during the deadline but the Cubs wouldn't move him. He's got all the traits of a big time power hitter. Plus-plus bat speed, some natural loft, huge torque, the ability to move the bat around a bit...it's all very enticing. On top of that he has a chance to catch though he won't be great back there. This guy was Rule 5 eligible last year and nobody took a shot. Now he's a top 100 prospect for sure.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B? - Candy can hit. I put a future 60 on the bat after seeing plenty of him this Fall and he's got 55 raw power that plays down in games because he's willing to swing at (and hit) pitches he can hit for singles instead of waiting for something he can really drive. It's a mild case of Vitters Disease. Defensively he's a butcher at third base but you hate to waste the arm across the diamond so maybe he ends up in an outfield corner where you just deal with a lack of range and hope the arm makes up for it somewhat. If the body goes backwards (it truly might, this is a squat, thick young man) then it's to first base he goes and he's a fringe regular. If he somehow becomes viable at 3B we're talking a 50/55 OFP with an chance to make an All Star team or two during his prime, but that outcome is pretty far right tail.

Pierce Johnson, RHP - Johnson's got decent stuff; a low 90s, moving fastball, an above average breaking ball and average changeup projection. The delivery is more about hip swing than leg drive, and it's tough to repeat that, especially deep in games, and the control Johnson shows in the first inning isn't there in the fifth or later. I think he's a Vance Worley-esque backend starter.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B - Yes, there's bat speed but there's a lot of effort, only 50 or 55 power and a bad approach. It's not for me.

[craig]

Thanks, cal. Heh heh, gotta give Longenhagen credit, he thinks for himself! :) Perhaps a reminder of how every scout has his own opinions about guy, and the concept that there is any uniform "consensus" about any player is a myth.

 

Contreras: "all the traits of a big time power hitter"? That's a new one!

 

Candelario: "butcher"! I think Longenhagen and John Manual from BA define the boundary extremes on that eval! :) (In Manual's favor is that his opinion is taken from two or three pro scouts, so fair hope that Manual's sources outnumber and "out-accurate" that of Longenhagen. Not sure how many AFL games Longenhagen attended; I'm guessing Candy's 3-error game was one of them?

*"Mild case of Vitters disease" is another take I haven't read before. (I could very much live with that, I think.....)

 

Vogelbach: "bat speed" but "bad approach", that's another spin I don't think I've seen. Not sure what he doesn't like about the approach, but that would seem to be again the opposite boundary from some Vogelbach supporters, where Vogelbach's take-a-walk approach is perhaps his best skill.

 

Anyway, kind of fun to read opinions from a guy who's way out there and has no compunctions about being so. Somehow I don't anticipate that Contreras will really be a big-time power hitter, though!

[Guest]

Not sure how many AFL games Longenhagen attended; I'm guessing Candy's 3-error game was one of them?

 

FYI, he lives in Phoenix and judging by his Twitter feed, he seemed to go to an AFL game nearly every day.

[Guest]

Rule 5 Draft is today. The Cubs just passed in the first stage, and haven't had any players lost yet either.

[Guest]

We lost nobody in the Major League phase, but several guys in the AAA phase.

 

Reds—Pin-Chieh Chen, 2b, Cubs

Angels—Ariel Ovando, lhp, Cubs

Yankees—Julian Aybar, rhp, Cubs

Cardinals—Michael Heesch, lhp, Cubs

[Rob]

I'm a little surprised nobody took Black. I'm certainly not disappointed about that though.

[weis21]

[jersey cubs fan]

What ^^^^^^^^ he said

[toonsterwu]

Heesch had some LOOGY potential, but all in all, didn't lose anything that feels like it could even be, say, Justin Bour. Could be wrong, but Chen didn't have a role in the organization, Aybar/Ovando ... eh, and Heesch.

 

I guess they wanted an upper level catcher to pair with Contreras in AAA. I do like the O'Neill pickup. Probably won't amount to much, as he's essentially taking Chen's "spot", but there's some tools. Don't know anything about Loya - guess their Mexican League scout saw something to like?

[Guest]

Taylor Davis didn't get taken, so he's already someone to pair with Contreras at Iowa.

[Lefty]

What are the consequences of someone taken in the AAA phase?

[Post Count Padder]

Pretty thrilled no one took Corey Black. I think he could be a decent pen arm next year.

[craig]

What are the consequences of someone taken in the AAA phase?

 

Drafting team gets to keep him. Cost is peanuts, like $1K or something insignificant. And unlike the major-league version, I don't think the drafting team needs to even keep the draftee on it's AAA roster. Basically it's a free transfer of roster-fill players. Most major-league Rule 5's don't stay with drafting team; AAA draftees never get returned to original team.

 

Heesch and Chen have been productive minor-leaguers. Best wishes to them.

[craig]

Pretty thrilled no one took Corey Black. I think he could be a decent pen arm next year.

 

Glad we kept him, but not a fan, personally. Good arm, so that gives him chances. But so, so, so very wild.

 

Not many useful major-league pitchers who have no control, and not many guys whose stuff is so superior that they can be useful without any control.

 

But, there's always a hope. Maybe Bosio or the coaches next spring, or perhaps down in instrux or something, can help him make some adjustment in his delivery that could improve his control from awful to merely below-average, and maybe he'll still have a shot.

[Lefty]

What are the consequences of someone taken in the AAA phase?

 

Drafting team gets to keep him. Cost is peanuts, like $1K or something insignificant. And unlike the major-league version, I don't think the drafting team needs to even keep the draftee on it's AAA roster. Basically it's a free transfer of roster-fill players. Most major-league Rule 5's don't stay with drafting team; AAA draftees never get returned to original team.

 

Heesch and Chen have been productive minor-leaguers. Best wishes to them.

 

Thanks.

[Little Slide Rooter]

What are the consequences of someone taken in the AAA phase?

 

Drafting team gets to keep him. Cost is peanuts, like $1K or something insignificant. And unlike the major-league version, I don't think the drafting team needs to even keep the draftee on it's AAA roster. Basically it's a free transfer of roster-fill players. Most major-league Rule 5's don't stay with drafting team; AAA draftees never get returned to original team.

 

Heesch and Chen have been productive minor-leaguers. Best wishes to them.

 

Don't you ever well wish a St. Louis Cardinal you treacherous swine!. Ever!

 

But yeah, he'll probably come in against us and strike out the side at an inoportune moment sometime and it will lead to chaos and panic.

[Cubswin11]

The Mike O'Neill guy we took in the AAA portion has some of the craziest BB% to K% rates I've ever seen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa546800&position=OF

[Guest]

The Mike O'Neill guy we took in the AAA portion has some of the craziest BB% to K% rates I've ever seen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa546800&position=OF

 

Steamer projects him for a .270/.343/.338 line, which isn't all that remarkable until you consider that they project him to do that in 1 plate appearance.