Miguel Montero acquired for Mejia and Godley

[Sammy Sofa]

What are we going by with that again? Is the Fangraphs value metric out the window? I can't keep track of these things.

[abuck1220]

lol no [expletive] way montero would get 3/$40 as a FA. get real.

[abuck1220]

 

you basically have to completely disregard it to think it's not worth putting stock into given the chasm between these two

 

this is so dumb. you can acknowledge there is a "chasm" between the two and still not think that chasm is worth tens of millions of dollars.

[Guest]

They can announce robot umpires tomorrow and Montero is still a good acquisition. The fact that he sits on the opposite end of the spectrum for framing is a bonus of whatever magnitude you're willing to accept framing can offer.

[Guest]

 

you basically have to completely disregard it to think it's not worth putting stock into given the chasm between these two

 

this is so dumb. you can acknowledge there is a "chasm" between the two and still not think that chasm is worth tens of millions of dollars.

 

if you actually went by what the framing numbers say, correct me if i'm wrong, but that gap would be worth close to $30M in one season. So even if you cut that by 2/3, you're almost there on framing alone.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What are we going by with that again? Is the Fangraphs value metric out the window? I can't keep track of these things.

 

Fangraphs adjusted for pitch framing.

[mul21]

Isn't a win worth like $7M on the open market these days? So all he needs to do is be a 6 win player over the next 3 years to live up to that. For the non-prospects it sounds like are being given, seems pretty reasonable to me. And I'm not completely sold on the pitch framing stuff, at least not to the extreme it's being described between him and Castillo.

[abuck1220]

hold on hold on hold on....you're saying montero's pitch framing is worth $30 mil over Castillo per season? Edited December 9, 2014 by abuck1220

[treebird]

i don't think montero would get 3/40 and i don't think he's 50 runs better than castillo (or anyone) at pitch-framing, but he's such a perfect mirror image complement to castillo that i'd love to have him at that price. it wouldn't be great if we gave up a bunch for him, but i think that's very unlikely to happen. getting his contract for nothing would be good. doing that and dumping some of jaxon would be even better.

[treebird]

 

you basically have to completely disregard it to think it's not worth putting stock into given the chasm between these two

 

this is so dumb. you can acknowledge there is a "chasm" between the two and still not think that chasm is worth tens of millions of dollars.

 

if you actually went by what the framing numbers say, correct me if i'm wrong, but that gap would be worth close to $30M in one season. So even if you cut that by 2/3, you're almost there on framing alone.

 

saying stuff like that is not a good way to convince people to take pitch framing numbers seriously.

[toonsterwu]

Going to be very displeased if any of Underwood/Tseng/Mejia are involved.

 

You know, with the reports on Tseng's stuff being fairly consistent this offseason, I wouldn't be that bothered, despite personal biases that want him to stay with the Cubs. Considering how far away Mejia is, I think you live with it if that's the demand. Not saying I wouldn't be displeased, but I guess I could swallow that and move on. Underwood's a big heck no, imo, and I really don't think they'd ponder that.

[Guest]

hold on hold on hold on....you're saying montero's pitch framing is worth $30 mil over Castillo per season?

 

no, i'm saying that if you take what they say, that there's about a 50 run gap, that's close to $30M, if not more.

 

i don't believe that to be the case. I do believe that 1/3 of that gap being real is very realistic.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

hold on hold on hold on....you're saying montero's pitch framing is worth $30 mil over Castillo per season?

 

If he was guaranteed to do what the metrics said he did last year, yes.

 

But it was a fluke season where he got a ton of close calls. Projecting forward the gap won't be that big.

[MWV]

"Foolhardy Spendthrift Tom Ricketts" is hardly as catchy as "Poor Tom Ricketts".

I hope Theo doesn't consummate this trade so people can keep complaining about the latter.

[Sammy Sofa]

What are we going by with that again? Is the Fangraphs value metric out the window? I can't keep track of these things.

 

Fangraphs adjusted for pitch framing.

 

Again:

 

http://babysimpson.co.uk/gallery/frames/5/1f02/107.jpg

[Guest]

 

you basically have to completely disregard it to think it's not worth putting stock into given the chasm between these two

 

this is so dumb. you can acknowledge there is a "chasm" between the two and still not think that chasm is worth tens of millions of dollars.

 

if you actually went by what the framing numbers say, correct me if i'm wrong, but that gap would be worth close to $30M in one season. So even if you cut that by 2/3, you're almost there on framing alone.

 

saying stuff like that is not a good way to convince people to take pitch framing numbers seriously.

 

it is what it is. by this particular measure, montero was the absolute best in the league while welington was like second worst. i'd look at other sources, but i know they all generally agreed that they're on the extremes, IIRC...don't recall the run totals though.

[abuck1220]

hold on hold on hold on....you're saying montero's pitch framing is worth $30 mil over Castillo per season?

 

If he was guaranteed to do what the metrics said he did last year, yes.

 

 

lol then those metrics can [expletive] off. give me a break.

[toonsterwu]

I like Montero, and he makes good sense for the Cubs. But unless you think he'd get 3/40 as a FA, giving up any talent whatsoever to trade for him makes zero sense. I have to think the D-backs are eating a bit of the contract.

Martin got 5/80, is a few months older, both have similar k/bb rates and career slash lines and both are considered very good defensively. I don't think it's a stretch to think he'd get 3-4 years and more than 40 million on the open market.

 

I do.

 

Martin is coming off a career year, and Montero has had two down years in a row. Montero also has some of the worst throwing numbers in the game. I like him, as I said, but a catcher in his 30's coming off two declining years whose defense is a mixed bag (yes, I value pitch framing) is not a comparison with a guy coming off his best year, and arguably the best overall receiver in the sport.

 

Montero as a FA would get, I'd guess, 2-16M. Maybe with a club option for the third year.

 

My guess, as that's all it can be, is that he'd probably get a bit more than that for two reasons - there's a high number of front offices that value pitch framing these days and will thus place emphasis on Montero in that regards, and there is a fairly thin catching market this offseason for free agents. I don't know about 3/40 without really taking the time to analyze it, but I think he'd get more than 10 mil AAV.

[sneakypower]

lol no [expletive] way montero would get 3/$40 as a FA. get real.

not trying to be a dick, but...

www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtop ... 2#p3143252

[imb]

*Sign hammel*

"The cubs are cheap! 3/36 means we aren't spending on lester!"

*deal is 2/20*

"This just shows the cubs have no money to spend!"

*spend $40m on Montero*

"Now we have no money for lester!"

[Sammy Sofa]

Did anyone actually say the first two? Let's fight them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

hold on hold on hold on....you're saying montero's pitch framing is worth $30 mil over Castillo per season?

 

If he was guaranteed to do what the metrics said he did last year, yes.

 

 

lol then those metrics can [expletive] off. give me a break.

 

*shrug*

[Cubswin11]

10:30pm: If the deal happens, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic (on Twitter) hears it’ll “likely” be for two Single-A pitchers.

[minnesotacubsfan]

2?

[abuck1220]

lol no [expletive] way montero would get 3/$40 as a FA. get real.

not trying to be a dick, but...

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=63399&p=3143252#p3143252

 

yeah but Russell Martin is at least good.