Predict Who Gets Traded

[Clem Fandango]

Old yes, and I'm not too interested in picking him up because of that, but to not understand why he would be a valuable commodity seems a little oblivious

[XZero771679666304]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

I don't want to go too off topic, but I don't trust James Shields at all.

 

Yeah, don't want Shields at all. And he'll likely get paid a ton based on reputation.

 

Don't trust him? Reputation? What?

 

...

 

It's not reputation, so much as it is paying for past performance, as Theo might say. Shields has been good, and someone is going to pay him like he's going to continue being that good, even though he's going to be 33. And they're almost certainly going to regret it, probably as early as the second or third year.

 

Giving FA contracts to good pitchers on the wrong side of 30 is a freaking trap (insert Admiral Ackbar meme here) that too many GMs fall into.

[rawaction]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

I don't want to go too off topic, but I don't trust James Shields at all.

 

Yeah, don't want Shields at all. And he'll likely get paid a ton based on reputation.

 

Don't trust him? Reputation? What?

 

James Shields fWAR:

 

2007: 4.3

2008: 3.9

2009: 3.5

2010: 1.7

2011: 4.5

2012: 3.9

2013: 4.5

 

With the exception of his outlier 2010 (when he had a .341 BABIP) and his rookie year when he played a partial season, he's averaged 4.1 fWAR a year. And 4.3 fWAR the last 3 years. He's also averaged 222.4 innings over the last seven seasons. He's extremely durable and very effective. If you don't trust James Shields or don't understand his reputation then I'm not sure what else to say. He's a good pitcher.

 

If you see anywhere I said I don't trust him or don't understand his reputation then you can't read well.

 

Reputation = past performance. Never said it wasn't earned, just that I think the odds of him living up to his contract (which will likely be 4-5 years long) is very slim.

[Tryptamine]

I see no problem in not trusting Shields. Let's be honest, he has been absolutely awful since the start of May this year. 76 2/3IP 100H 51K 1.53WHIP. Something is clearly not right.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

shields seems like an ideal sign this guy for a ton of money and watch him decline candidate.

[jersey cubs fan]

I would not assume Shields gets an unjustifiably large and long contract. His reputation isn't that amazing. He's had limited playoff exposure and I don't think he even did very well. He's the kind of guy who, if he went out and had a great 2014 postseason, he will have a huge deal. But everybody knows he turns 33 this winter and he's not getting tons of Cy Young or all star credit, let alone those reputation making playoff runs. He might be somebody worth staying in on until he does actually sign.

[Clem Fandango]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

I don't want to go too off topic, but I don't trust James Shields at all.

 

Yeah, don't want Shields at all. And he'll likely get paid a ton based on reputation.

 

Don't trust him? Reputation? What?

 

James Shields fWAR:

 

2007: 4.3

2008: 3.9

2009: 3.5

2010: 1.7

2011: 4.5

2012: 3.9

2013: 4.5

 

With the exception of his outlier 2010 (when he had a .341 BABIP) and his rookie year when he played a partial season, he's averaged 4.1 fWAR a year. And 4.3 fWAR the last 3 years. He's also averaged 222.4 innings over the last seven seasons. He's extremely durable and very effective. If you don't trust James Shields or don't understand his reputation then I'm not sure what else to say. He's a good pitcher.

 

If you see anywhere I said I don't trust him or don't understand his reputation then you can't read well.

 

Reputation = past performance. Never said it wasn't earned, just that I think the odds of him living up to his contract (which will likely be 4-5 years long) is very slim.

 

I was referring to PleasewinCubs' issue of trust, fwiw. The reputation issue in regards to overpaying for past performance I understand completely, and I agree. But saying he'll get paid a ton based on reputation is a little different than saying he'll get paid a ton on past performance. Of course he'll get paid a ton based on his reputation. Right now, his reputation is he's been a dependable pitcher for 7 years. A team will overpay for that. I don't think the Cubs should sign him in the slightest because of his age, but no one suggested that.

[SouthSideRyan]

I would not assume Shields gets an unjustifiably large and long contract. His reputation isn't that amazing. He's had limited playoff exposure and I don't think he even did very well.

 

He's big game James

[DonnieD]

Even if its wrong, I still want another guy considered a frontline starter. Hell, if we want Hammel, trade him and re-sign him in the offseason. And while I know that's never actually done, he's made comments to where I think it's a legit option.

 

If he keeps this up all year, a QO isn't going to keep teams from bidding on him.

 

The problem with trading him and then resigning him is that with the QO no longer in play his market is no longer depressed, and you'll have to pony up both the years and dollars like anyone else. Even if he wants to be here and will give a "discount", that is likely more and definitely longer than Theo & co., would likely go.

 

Now if he can bring back a premium talent, maybe it is worth pursuing that route. If it is for someone who might barely sneak into our top 10, and I think I'd just rather go the QO route.

 

History has shown that the QO should drastically impact the market on a pitcher like Hammel, and don't forget, we'd be looking at draft pick compensation if he rejects the QO too.

[rawaction]

I would not assume Shields gets an unjustifiably large and long contract. His reputation isn't that amazing. He's had limited playoff exposure and I don't think he even did very well. He's the kind of guy who, if he went out and had a great 2014 postseason, he will have a huge deal. But everybody knows he turns 33 this winter and he's not getting tons of Cy Young or all star credit, let alone those reputation making playoff runs. He might be somebody worth staying in on until he does actually sign.

 

His nickname (on his BR page) is "Big game James". Also, he threw 5.2 innings of shutout ball in a world series, picking up the only win his team would get in that series. If KC makes it in the playoffs this year, he'll get a ton of credit for being that team's #1 pitcher.

 

I don't put any stock into this, but I still have a hard time believing there won't be a GM (or 2 or 3) that will give him an 80-100Mil contract based on that type of stuff. Hell, it could be argued that KC gave up one of the best prospects in baseball for him based on that type of stuff.

[jersey cubs fan]

I would not assume Shields gets an unjustifiably large and long contract. His reputation isn't that amazing. He's had limited playoff exposure and I don't think he even did very well. He's the kind of guy who, if he went out and had a great 2014 postseason, he will have a huge deal. But everybody knows he turns 33 this winter and he's not getting tons of Cy Young or all star credit, let alone those reputation making playoff runs. He might be somebody worth staying in on until he does actually sign.

 

His nickname (on his BR page) is "Big game James". Also, he threw 5.2 innings of shutout ball in a world series, picking up the only win his team would get in that series. If KC makes it in the playoffs this year, he'll get a ton of credit for being that team's #1 pitcher.

 

I don't put any stock into this, but I still have a hard time believing there won't be a GM (or 2 or 3) that will give him an 80-100Mil contract based on that type of stuff. Hell, it could be argued that KC gave up one of the best prospects in baseball for him based on that type of stuff.

 

Who cares what his nickname is? His most recent playoff appearance was 2011 and he gave up 7 ER in 5 IP. Nobody is going to base their judgement on his ability on 2008.

[rawaction]

I would not assume Shields gets an unjustifiably large and long contract. His reputation isn't that amazing. He's had limited playoff exposure and I don't think he even did very well. He's the kind of guy who, if he went out and had a great 2014 postseason, he will have a huge deal. But everybody knows he turns 33 this winter and he's not getting tons of Cy Young or all star credit, let alone those reputation making playoff runs. He might be somebody worth staying in on until he does actually sign.

 

His nickname (on his BR page) is "Big game James". Also, he threw 5.2 innings of shutout ball in a world series, picking up the only win his team would get in that series. If KC makes it in the playoffs this year, he'll get a ton of credit for being that team's #1 pitcher.

 

I don't put any stock into this, but I still have a hard time believing there won't be a GM (or 2 or 3) that will give him an 80-100Mil contract based on that type of stuff. Hell, it could be argued that KC gave up one of the best prospects in baseball for him based on that type of stuff.

 

Who cares what his nickname is? His most recent playoff appearance was 2011 and he gave up 7 ER in 5 IP. Nobody is going to base their judgement on his ability on 2008.

 

You can't just discount a nickname like Big Game James. You just can't!

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

i forgot about wil myers and looked up his numbers. lol holy [expletive]

[davell]

i forgot about wil myers and looked up his numbers. lol holy [expletive]

 

Wrist injury

[Have a seat, Neifi]

I would not assume Shields gets an unjustifiably large and long contract. His reputation isn't that amazing. He's had limited playoff exposure and I don't think he even did very well. He's the kind of guy who, if he went out and had a great 2014 postseason, he will have a huge deal. But everybody knows he turns 33 this winter and he's not getting tons of Cy Young or all star credit, let alone those reputation making playoff runs. He might be somebody worth staying in on until he does actually sign.

 

His nickname (on his BR page) is "Big game James". Also, he threw 5.2 innings of shutout ball in a world series, picking up the only win his team would get in that series. If KC makes it in the playoffs this year, he'll get a ton of credit for being that team's #1 pitcher.

 

I don't put any stock into this, but I still have a hard time believing there won't be a GM (or 2 or 3) that will give him an 80-100Mil contract based on that type of stuff. Hell, it could be argued that KC gave up one of the best prospects in baseball for him based on that type of stuff.

 

Who cares what his nickname is? His most recent playoff appearance was 2011 and he gave up 7 ER in 5 IP. Nobody is going to base their judgement on his ability on 2008.

We do. You literally just made a sweeping generalization about his "reputation" (whatever that means) not being "that amazing," which sort of makes the fact that he has a fairly widely utilized nickname that actually has the words BIG GAME in it sort of a thing.

[treebird]

I would not assume Shields gets an unjustifiably large and long contract. His reputation isn't that amazing. He's had limited playoff exposure and I don't think he even did very well. He's the kind of guy who, if he went out and had a great 2014 postseason, he will have a huge deal. But everybody knows he turns 33 this winter and he's not getting tons of Cy Young or all star credit, let alone those reputation making playoff runs. He might be somebody worth staying in on until he does actually sign.

 

His nickname (on his BR page) is "Big game James". Also, he threw 5.2 innings of shutout ball in a world series, picking up the only win his team would get in that series. If KC makes it in the playoffs this year, he'll get a ton of credit for being that team's #1 pitcher.

 

I don't put any stock into this, but I still have a hard time believing there won't be a GM (or 2 or 3) that will give him an 80-100Mil contract based on that type of stuff. Hell, it could be argued that KC gave up one of the best prospects in baseball for him based on that type of stuff.

 

Who cares what his nickname is? His most recent playoff appearance was 2011 and he gave up 7 ER in 5 IP. Nobody is going to base their judgement on his ability on 2008.

We do. You literally just made a sweeping generalization about his "reputation" (whatever that means) not being "that amazing," which sort of makes the fact that he has a fairly widely utilized nickname that actually has the words BIG GAME in it sort of a thing.

 

yeah, but i imagine a lot of that nickname is just due to the fact that his name is james.

[jersey cubs fan]

We do. You literally just made a sweeping generalization about his "reputation" (whatever that means) not being "that amazing," which sort of makes the fact that he has a fairly widely utilized nickname that actually has the words BIG GAME in it sort of a thing.

 

Then you are weird.

[davell]

Can we slap a nickname on Barney and increase his trade value? Or infringe on Shields with Big Game James Russell?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Can we slap a nickname on Barney and increase his trade value?

 

Is "The Incredibly Poor Man's Omar Vizquel" taken?

[Tryptamine]

Maybe I'm feeling negative after the Blackhawks whiffed on Kessler and the Bulls are looking like they whiffed on Melo, but I'm starting to think that Jeff isn't going anywhere this season. There is a decent chance that there is going to be a lot of good pitching out there. Price,Lester,Peavey,Lackey,Hammel,Hamels,Lee etc. Anywhere near that type of market saturation and you can kiss the chances at finding a trade worthy package good bye.

[davell]

Hamels and Lee don't affect our market honestly. Very few teams can take on their salary and none of the teams I want involved with our guys can.

 

Boston isn't going to deal their guys within their division, in my opinion. And I'm not sold they deal Lester because they want to keep him. Same with Lackey, if they think he actually plays next year.

[dcvalpo]

Keep Shark, keep Hamels...sign Melky Cabrera and Jon Lester. Bring up Baez, Alcantra, Bryant. Playoff team in 2015.

[Guest]

Keep Shark, keep Hamels...sign Melky Cabrera and Jon Lester. Bring up Baez, Alcantra, Bryant. Playoff team in 2015.

Melky?

[dcvalpo]

Keep Shark, keep Hamels...sign Melky Cabrera and Jon Lester. Bring up Baez, Alcantra, Bryant. Playoff team in 2015.

Melky?

 

Unless I'm mistaken, he's a free agent at the end of the season...he's put up a 1.7 fwar so far, and I don't think he will be all that costly.

[PackLandVA]

Nelson Cruz for LF in 2015? He's not young and a poor fielder, but he could add some much needed production to the lineup. The Cubs need some type of production from their outfield and they're not getting it this year. FA crop is thin pickins'.