2014 Bold Predictions Thread

[davell]

He'll be 21 in June. I did forget he got a late start at KC last year. At his age, it's possible he could skip Boise, I guess. If so, he'd have to be lights out to get moved up again, but as Tangled said, go big or go home.

 

It may be more likely than my "Paniagua will be a beast" pick. In which I think he finishes the year in AA, with a few token starts.

[wekim81]

And major league lines for our current minor leaguers....

 

Javy in 75 games goes .278/.312/.575 with 18 HR

#bonerjams

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Going off my top 15 cubs prospects list.

 

0 - The Cubs top ranked pitching project pre-2015 is not in the Cubs organization. (Not sure how much of a bold prediction that is)

1 - Javy Baez "struggles" for AAA for much of the first half of the season. Of course, for Baez struggling is hitting .270/.330/.500 or there about. He's called up in July after Starlin Castro (who slightly rebounds) and Jeff Samardzija are traded. Baez hits about the same over the rest of the Major League season.

2 - Kris Bryant has an extremely slow start for the first month or so in Double A before turning it around, skipping AAA and joining Baez in Wrigley.

3 - Albert Almora hits 25 HR, achieves top 5 prospect status by end of 2014.

4 - Jorge Soler's raw tools stand out, but he flashes his potential, hits 25 HR while hitting .250, mainly at AA.

5 - Arismendy Alcantara breaks camp with the Chicago Cubs

6 - CJ Edwards does not make it out of Double A and struggles.

7 - Pierce Johnson makes his MLB debut in August

8 - Dan Vogelbach will make us question Rizzo's long-term position whether or not we can tolerate his defense for his bat?

9/10 - Because Mike Olt or Christian Villanueva bursts onto the major league scene as a solid 3B, Kris Bryant does not play a game for the Cubs at third.

11 - Jeimer Candelario does not develop and falls to the 15/20ish range next year

12 - Neil Ramirez becomes a solid part of the Cubs bullpen and remains there

13 - Paul Blackburn takes a huge step forward and becomes ranked higher than CJ Edwards in 2015 Top 10.

14 - Kyle Hendricks steps into the Cubs rotation when Samardzija is traded, if not earlier, and pitches in a solid, but unspectacular way. A useful SP to have at the right price but in the end forgettable and replaceable.

15 - Matt Szczur - DFA'd within 18 months.

Edited January 28, 2014 by The-Kris-Bryant

[SouthSideRyan]

Petition to autocorrect Solar to Soler

[KingCubsFan]

Kris Bryant is either in the majors by July or heads into 2015 as the top prospect in baseball.

[Radar3454]

KyleJRM becomes optimistic

 

Vogelbach plays LF better than Carlos Lee (low bar I know)

Olt starts out strong and is starting at 3B for the Cubs by May 15th

[CubsInNC]

Candelario shows up to spring with 20 lbs of new muscle. The effects on the power translate, as he hits 24 homers, and 30 doubles. However, the added bulk makes him more stiff defensively, and he commits nearly 40 errors at third.

 

Pugliese has the best ERA, most wins, and highest winning percentage of the KC starters, but fails to excel in any supporting peripherals (GB/FB, K, BB, etc).

 

Dunston Jr shows up with a chip on his shoulder, sets out to "prove the doubters wrong." And presses too much at the start of the season, failing miserably. But keeps his starting role, and by the end of the season is getting significant top 10 consideration, and is on more than 1 "guru" top 100 lists.

[Benny Rodriguez]

Petition to autocorrect Solar to Soler

He's going green....

[Benny Rodriguez]

Baez develops and is brought up to play ss, Castro is moved to centerfield.

Olt wins the 3B spot and is solid.

Alcantara takes over 2b after deadline deals

Bryant takes over a corner outfield spot

Lake is solid in left (ok, that one is from my heart!) at least until Almora is ready

Soler and Vogelbach make strides and will soon push the guys at the major league level

 

I do see Castro in the OF some day. He has an amazing break/drop and range on fly balls. He could also concentrate a little more on his offense out there. I can see him as a shallow playing CF that can go get it.

On the other hand, not sure how it might look if all 3 OF's are converted(recently) from other spots.

[toonsterwu]

None of these are really bold. Actually, I don't know what would exactly qualify as bold for me.

 

Considering I have no idea what happened to him (other than the few reports of injury; there might've been other reports that I missed), I'll go with Michael Jensen pitching again and getting fast-tracked as a pen arm, ending up in AA by season's end. Along those lines, for all the semi-intrigue about Shawon Dunston Jr. on several sites, wouldn't surprise me if Trey Martin surpassed him again and was in Daytona by season's end.

 

I do like the Bruno prediction above. The boy can hit. Heck, I think he could outhit Darwin Barney if he was put in the bigs this year (admittedly, that isn't saying that much).

 

I really think we might see a pitching bounceback season from someone that fell off the map last year, someone like Starling Peralta or Jose Rosario, but I'm not bold enough to guess who. Although, wouldn't stun me to see both out of the org as well.

 

My gut feeling is that we're going to get a big offensive breakout in Daytona next season from someone out of the Kane County group last year, akin to the Alcantara offensive breakout in Daytona 2 seasons ago, but I wasn't really thinking Contreras, as I think the wear and tear from catching may limit how much of an offensive jump he takes (after all ... he did have a fairly good offensive season last year that I think people somewhat over-look).

 

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I'm trying to think "boldly", but ... hmm ... the best I can think of right now is ... uh Eric Jokisch getting at least 5 starts in the bigs? Nah ... how about Carlos Penalver hitting well enough in Kane County to have everyone, temporarily, stop questioning how much offense he will have (that's not really bold ... so, let's go bold, and he'll be a top 15 prospect next year ... do I really believe it? Not really. Could I sorta see some potential of it happening? Sorta ... ).

 

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Had snarky comment here about homegrown lineups, but uh, ... realized that I was thinking more positive than negative

 

I predict there's going to be at least one bust of a season in our top 8. Doesn't mean they are done/finished, just not a good year to keep the excitement. Now, considering the expectations with the top 4, it might not be a flat-out horrendous season ...

 

My gut feeling if that happened (and here's hoping it doesn't) is that Almora in A+ would be a possibility, but I could see it as Soler in what I assume will be AA. Wouldn't surprise me if it was Alcantara in AAA, much as I've pushed for him. Baez is always a possibility because of his aggressiveness, but I tend to think he'll be fine in AAA. Actually, I tend to think the Cubs will convince him to move to 3rd early in the year and that he'll pull a Machado and be our starting 3rd baseman by midseason.

 

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This isn't bold, but wouldn't shock me if Matt Szczur is our CF at some point this year, and performs passably for expectations.

 

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I really do like Trey Masek more than I thought, but I have no idea how bold I can get. I guess I can envision him in A+ by mid-season as a starter, but that doesn't seem all that bold to me.

 

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Actually ... thinking about it now, I could easily see Brett Jackson out of the org by season's end ... but it also wouldn't surprise me if he's starting in the bigs (more as a byproduct of our rebuilding) at the end of the season. Short of it is, I wouldn't be stunned if he had a good year. For all the talk about fixing mechanics/tweaking swings, the reality is, more guys fail to do it than succeed at it, due to the difficulties to changing muscle memory. I think back to the tweaking they did with him all year, and like the "instinct"/patient-thinking discussions on some past prospects, it wouldn't surprise me if Brett got bogged down mentally. There shouldn't have been a reason for him to be that bad last year (talent wise, he's really not awful to think last year was an indication of his talent, unless he was mentally out of whack, along with physically trying a new swing).

Edited January 30, 2014 by toonsterwu

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Vitters - rakes in Spring and is starting LF majority of the season hitting .288/.331./462 and 16 HR's by years end.

 

Olt has big spring but then can't hit enough to get promotion.

 

Villanueva has huge start to season but is packages in a trade for a young close to majors pitcher.

 

BJax struggles and gets claimed by another organization late in the year.

 

Alcantara continues strong improvements and is starting at 2B by June 15th. Puts up a final season line of .276/352/.391 and steals 25 bags. Moved to CF

 

Bryant rakes and is starting in RF July 1

 

Baez leads Cubs with 9 hrs in Spring, sparks huge national debate on whether they should let him come up now. Called up after June doesn't slow down.

 

Lake is awful and gets demoted

 

Rock Shoulders hits 28 hrs but strikes out 240 times!

 

Geiger reaches AAA and continues to put up strong numbers without being very exciting

 

Pierce Johnson stays in AAA and has an average season knocking him out of top 100

 

Cubs use Vogelbach, Villanueva and Geiger to Acquire a top pitching priospect.

 

Shark agrees to 5 yr 75 Million extension.

 

Soler has a massive season making him top 10 prospect.

 

Cubs August 1st lineup

Alcantara - 2B

Castro - SS

Rizzo - 1B

Baez - 3B

Bryant - RF

Schierholtz/Vitters - LF

Ruggiano/Sweeney - CF

Welly/Kottaras - C

[rawaction]

Does anyone see any issues with starting a rookie called up at midseason to be thrown right into the 3 or 4 hole? It probably doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but I think there's a lot of pressure to be the "star" if you're hitting 3rd/4th your first week. I believe Rizzo came up right in the middle of the lineup. But I think I like to start out rookies in the 2 or 6 hole. Of course, the logic for #2 is a good leadoff hitter and a good 3-hole hitter behind them. Cubs may not have either, depending on where Rizzo hits and how well he hits.

[KingCubsFan]

Does anyone see any issues with starting a rookie called up at midseason to be thrown right into the 3 or 4 hole? It probably doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but I think there's a lot of pressure to be the "star" if you're hitting 3rd/4th your first week. I believe Rizzo came up right in the middle of the lineup. But I think I like to start out rookies in the 2 or 6 hole. Of course, the logic for #2 is a good leadoff hitter and a good 3-hole hitter behind them. Cubs may not have either, depending on where Rizzo hits and how well he hits.

I think it all depends on the player. Some players may embrace that role (I think Rizzo kind of did that), while others may put undue pressure on themselves to perform (I think Castro probably does this). I trust the front office to be able to judge whether a player can thrive in a certain role when they get called up. Based on what I've read about Baez, Bryant and Almora, I think all three could be thrown into the middle/top of the lineup when they get called up and probably be successful.

[toonsterwu]

Does anyone see any issues with starting a rookie called up at midseason to be thrown right into the 3 or 4 hole? It probably doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but I think there's a lot of pressure to be the "star" if you're hitting 3rd/4th your first week. I believe Rizzo came up right in the middle of the lineup. But I think I like to start out rookies in the 2 or 6 hole. Of course, the logic for #2 is a good leadoff hitter and a good 3-hole hitter behind them. Cubs may not have either, depending on where Rizzo hits and how well he hits.

 

Depends on the player. In general, I have no issues with it, but we really don't know enough about an individual's makeup to make that judgment. On paper, Javier Baez seems like the type of kid that could probably handle said pressure, particularly the pressure that will happen when he gets in a slump.

 

In the grand scheme of things, I would prefer not to start a guy out in the middle of the lineup, but I'm not against it. There might even be an argument for starting someone out in the 3 spot (something along the lines of potentially seeing better pitches if guys are getting on base enough ahead and there's a legitimate threat behind him).

[Sammy Sofa]

The Cubs will not win 60 games this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please note that this is also applicable if they win more than 60 games.

[jersey cubs fan]

would have worked better if you didn't include the footnote

[Guest]

This is the minor league forum. Are you referring to the Iowa Cubs? I think they'll actually be pretty good this year!

[Sammy Sofa]

This is the minor league forum. Are you referring to the Iowa Cubs? I think they'll actually be pretty good this year!

 

I'll never leave Active Topics. NEVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

[Guest]

This is the minor league forum. Are you referring to the Iowa Cubs? I think they'll actually be pretty good this year!

 

I'll never leave Active Topics. NEVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

 

 

this

[Benny Rodriguez]

question to go with bold predictions.

what would the vesting dates for guys that are close but haven't been up yet- Baez, Alcantara, even Almora.. just wondering if that timeline might be more important than production as far as when they come up.

[radarluv1]

Soler struggles and takes a step toward bust-dom.

Is it safe to say he has the lowest floor out of our top 10?

[bukie]

Soler struggles and takes a step toward bust-dom.

Is it safe to say he has the lowest floor out of our top 10?

Uhh...no?

[sneakypower]

i guess technically, beating a guy to death is a worse outcome than busting

[radarluv1]

Soler struggles and takes a step toward bust-dom.

Is it safe to say he has the lowest floor out of our top 10?

Uhh...no?

I meant the position players in the top 10. Arent Vogelbach and Alcantara more likely MLB regulars than Soler? Maybe I'm irrationally down on him from the 3 televised ABs in the Az fall league.

 

Bold Prediction: Our wealth of 3B prospects becomes a "problem" as Villanueava does well and a fixed Olt returns to top prospect form

[Guest]

Bold Prediction: We go into next year with four pitchers in the top 100 prospects and two in the top 50.