2014 Bold Predictions Thread

[craig]

That all seems consistent, with the usual "works at" versus "tops at" differential. Typical righty will top 5-6 higher at times relative to his normal working velocity. Hendricks is notorious for lacking velocity, but he too works mostly in the 80's and touched 92-93 like 13 Wells. Perhaps 2014 Wells will show up faster and healthier, and show the kind of big-time power sinker we'd hoped for pre-injury.

[CubsInNC]

A quick internet search right now only gets me some tweet early last year about Ben Wells around 88-91mph, which is relatively close to what I had in my mind yesterday (89-93). I'm almost certain that he topped out around 92/93 at times last year, at least around summer.

 

Anyhow, I actually hope you guys are right, because that gives a bit more hope to Wells (if injury did hamper him ... ). At the end of the day, how his breaking ball develops will determine if he can make it as a starter.

 

Per Arguello he was in your exact range during the summer.

[craig]

Thanks, NC. Arguella's 88-92 sounds pretty hopeful, for a semi-rehab year and given the alleged "heaviness" of Wells's ball. Perhaps he will be healthier and add a couple mph, such that his fastball is really a plus pitch this year, and his breaking stuff will take a step. Would be pretty fun if he emerged as a good prospect. Wells is still only 21, so there's lots of time to make improvements. His 69K/40BB/7HR splits look pretty blah, but guys are always changing, so could be very different, hopefully for good, this year and in future.

[toonsterwu]

Interesting. I haven't checked Arguello's site in awhile, but I am fairly clear now when and where I heard 89-93, and it was probably, if my recollection is correct, a couple weeks earlier than Arguello's report.

 

craig, the biggest issue for me is what velocity he's throwing his 2-seamer at. i'm pretty the 89-93 was a reference to his 2-seamer (again, didn't follow late in the season all that closely). He hasn't really gone to a 4-seamer all that much since hitting full-season (I'm sure he probably has thrown one here or there). While the power sinker would be nice, if he can sit hit 90-92, he has a shot, provided the breaking ball improves. Now, if he's topping out on a 4-seamer in the low 90's, then I'd be a little troubled.

 

I'll be honest, I'm not expecting him to go back to the, what, 93-96 mph 2-seamer?, that reportedly showed a bit more in Boise. Just not expecting it.

 

As a side note, the other big worry with Wells back in the day was command/efficiency, and that, if anything, may also be a huge factor as to whether or not he can stick as a starter. There was a stretch uh, a couple years ago? (I want to say it was his good run in Peoria, but I'd have to doublecheck), where he would pitch well, but would use up a ton of pitches and be gone by the 4th/5th.