Week 14: Cowboys (7-5) @ Bears (6-6) Mon Night ESPN

[USSoccer]

Advanced Stats suggest a significantly higher level of play from McCown than from Cutler, if you care for statistical comparisons

 

The eye test seems to indicate that McCown is terrible in the end zone because his arm isn't strong enough to make the necessary throws in a compact field.

[Banedon]

Bears players in Washington, IL this morning.

 

http://i.imgur.com/HwBXGb0.jpg

[sneakypower]

Advanced Stats suggest a significantly higher level of play from McCown than from Cutler, if you care for statistical comparisons

 

The eye test seems to indicate that McCown is terrible in the end zone because his arm isn't strong enough to make the necessary throws in a compact field.

i get that, but wouldn't that show up in the stats?

 

the only way i can see your observations being true and deceiving the stats, is if McCown's always able to drive to within the goal line and Forte & Bush are getting stonewalled while the playcalling doesn't trust McCown's arm enough to throw in that spot

 

for example, 1st & goal on the 5 is probably something like ~6 expected points; two straight failed runs puts you down to ~3 i'd imagine - this is where i can see your theory holding water some

 

but conversely, you're also saying this like it's occurred enough to be a point of frustration, so he must have been making these unsuccessful passes there, too; you could have situations where RBs/WRs are tackled in the red zone, and McCown's wasted downs with tipped passes or whatever - that would certainly show up in the stats, where he has subtracted from their EP in those situations

 

i'm obviously interested in this argument because i'm not entirely convinced a Cutler return is a bad thing for the Lions' playoff odds; i feel more of a need to defer to the stats because it's not common to be able to find much objectivity regarding Cutler (and by extension, McCown) around here

Edited December 4, 2013 by sneakypower

[Guest]

i get that, but wouldn't that show up in the stats?

 

the only way i can see your observations being true and deceiving the stats, is if McCown's always able to drive to within the goal line and Forte & Bush are getting stonewalled while the playcalling doesn't trust McCown's arm enough to throw in that spot

 

for example, 1st & goal on the 5 is probably something like ~6 expected points; two straight failed runs puts you down to ~3 i'd imagine - this is where i can see your theory holding water

 

but conversely, you're also saying this like it's occurred enough to be a point of frustration, so he must have been making these unsuccessful passes there, too; you could have situations where RBs/WRs are tackled in the red zone, and McCown's wasted downs with tipped passes or whatever - that would certainly show up in the stats, where he has subtracted from their EP in those situations

 

i'm obviously interested in this argument because i'm not entirely convinced a Cutler return is a bad thing for the Lions playoff odds; i feel more of a need to defer to the stats because it's not common to be able to find much objectivity regarding Cutler around here

 

you basically described almost exactly what has been happening, except without the field goal because you go for it on 4th down and get stonewalled again.

[jersey cubs fan]

i get that, but wouldn't that show up in the stats?

 

No.

 

Because football stats are not nearly as reliable as a they are in a 1 on 1 sport like baseball, where your teammates and coaching decision making don't really matter.

[sneakypower]

weird, then why don't they just throw constant jump balls to whomever of Marshall/Jeffrey/M.Bennett's being singled? you don't need any arm to do that

[sneakypower]

i get that, but wouldn't that show up in the stats?

 

No.

 

Because football stats are not nearly as reliable as a they are in a 1 on 1 sport like baseball, where your teammates and coaching decision making don't really matter.

i mostly agree with that, but it seems perfectly reasonable to try to make comparisons between two guys at the same position who have been playing with the same exact coaching and offensive personnel

[Guest]

weird, then why don't they just throw constant jump balls to whomever of Marshall/Jeffrey/M.Bennett's being singled? you don't need any arm to do that

 

He tries, but he's awful at it.

[jersey cubs fan]

weird, then why don't they just throw constant jump balls to whomever of Marshall/Jeffrey/M.Bennett's being singled? you don't need any arm to do that

 

You do need an arm because you have to have the threat of a quick slant in the end zone to make the jump ball a possibility. The opposition has to honor the inside or else they aren't getting that throw. And the Bears have been down there and unable to get that throw on more than one occasion because defenses aren't fooled into thinking there is a chance McCown will hum one in there.

[Guest]

weird, then why don't they just throw constant jump balls to whomever of Marshall/Jeffrey/M.Bennett's being singled? you don't need any arm to do that

 

You do need an arm because you have to have the threat of a quick slant in the end zone to make the jump ball a possibility. The opposition has to honor the inside or else they aren't getting that throw. And the Bears have been down there and unable to get that throw on more than one occasion because defenses aren't fooled into thinking there is a chance McCown will hum one in there.

 

Really good point that I hadn't thought of at all.

[UMFan83]

Bears general manager Phil Emery said in an online Q&A, via the Chicago Tribune, that he's not inclined to franchise tag Cutler for 2014.

 

"The franchise tag for the quarterback position has unique challenges because the average comes out to be such a big portion of your cap and your total money available to spend on other players to acquire to help your team," Emery said.

 

"With the franchise tag being so high for the quarterback position, to use it and not sign the individual to a long-term deal hurts the team because you lose the ability to prorate the amount of guaranteed salary over the length of the contract. Proration lowers the salary cap number in relation to that player's contract. Obviously the lower the number in relation to the salary cap, the more players you can sign to help your team reach its goals."

[USSoccer]

Great. That reads as, barring them winning out and making a run in the playoffs, or Cutler giving the Bears a discount, that he's gone.

[JonJayCutler]

i'm obviously interested in this argument because i'm not entirely convinced a Cutler return is a bad thing for the Lions' playoff odds

 

It's not if you think McCown could otherwise keep going at this level, which is questionable at best considering his history. Cutler likely hasn't reached his full potential with this offense yet.

[UMFan83]

Great. That reads as, barring them winning out and making a run in the playoffs, or Cutler giving the Bears a discount, that he's gone.

 

Does it? If I'm reading it correctly, he's saying the franchise tag cripples you if he plays on it because you can't prorate his salary to future years to lessen the cap hit. He could still get a top 5 for his position contract but it would be structured to be more cap friendly.

[Banedon]

Great. That reads as, barring them winning out and making a run in the playoffs, or Cutler giving the Bears a discount, that he's gone.

 

Um. It doesn't read that way even a little to me. Seems to me they wanna get Jay signed to a reasonable extension.

[rawaction]

Great. That reads as, barring them winning out and making a run in the playoffs, or Cutler giving the Bears a discount, that he's gone.

 

Um. It doesn't read that way even a little to me. Seems to me they wanna get Jay signed to a reasonable extension.

 

Reasonable to Emery and Jay are probably completely different things. One point of view, Jay missed over 1/4 of the season for the 2nd time in 3 years, still has only 1 playoff win, and there wasn't significant dropoff in production when he went out this time.

 

Other point of view, Jay was leading the #2 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging a TD more than it is with McCown and he still runs circles around what the Bears have ever had throwing the ball and whats likely to be available in the near future.

 

I could see the team hoping for 12-15M/year and Cutler going more for the 16-18M/year range. High end of team and low end of Cutler are close, but opposite ends of the spectrum is completely different.

[Cubswin11]

I'm having a hard time picturing a big market for Cutler this offseason let alone one where he will get a huge contract (even though it only takes one team). The teams that need a QB all seem to have reasonable alternatives/limitations.

 

Browns- 2 first round picks, still might want to see what Hoyer can do post injury

Jags- Likely will be picking in the top 5 to get a QB

Houston- Same as Jags and also still owe Schaub a lot of money

Jets- Don't they have cap issues? Still have Sanchez and might want to give Geno another year also could draft another QB

Vikings- Will have a high enough pick to take one

Raiders- Pryor/Mgloin (spelling) have been decent enough that they probably go with one of them

Cardinals- Is Palmer a FA after the year?

 

Those are the only teams I can see having interest in him after the year other than the Bears and they all seem to have reasonable alternatives to not signing him. Jets/Vikings probably would be the two biggest threats to sign him and maybe the Cards if Palmer is a FA.

[Banedon]

Great. That reads as, barring them winning out and making a run in the playoffs, or Cutler giving the Bears a discount, that he's gone.

 

Um. It doesn't read that way even a little to me. Seems to me they wanna get Jay signed to a reasonable extension.

 

Reasonable to Emery and Jay are probably completely different things. One point of view, Jay missed over 1/4 of the season for the 2nd time in 3 years, still has only 1 playoff win, and there wasn't significant dropoff in production when he went out this time.

 

Other point of view, Jay was leading the #2 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging a TD more than it is with McCown and he still runs circles around what the Bears have ever had throwing the ball and whats likely to be available in the near future.

 

I could see the team hoping for 12-15M/year and Cutler going more for the 16-18M/year range. High end of team and low end of Cutler are close, but opposite ends of the spectrum is completely different.

 

I'm not saying it's gonna be an overnight negotiation. But both sides best interests are served by him staying. Jay needs consistency in coaching staffs and scheme badly. And the Bears have no QB alternatives. Something is gonna get worked out. This is all just negotiation.

[rawaction]

Doesn't really matter who would sign him. Because somebody will sign him. And pay him pretty close to what he is looking for. And those won't be close to the only teams looking at him. Hell, Cutler's old team jettisoned him for Matt Cassel. Every team with a young QB that's not named Luck or Newton would probably think long and hard about Cutler over their guy. The lack of market isn't going to be any kind of bargaining chip for the FO.

 

Biggest issue is who the Bears would have at QB.

[ConstableRabbit]

I'm having a hard time picturing a big market for Cutler this offseason let alone one where he will get a huge contract (even though it only takes one team). The teams that need a QB all seem to have reasonable alternatives/limitations.

 

Browns- 2 first round picks, still might want to see what Hoyer can do post injury

Jags- Likely will be picking in the top 5 to get a QB

Houston- Same as Jags and also still owe Schaub a lot of money

Jets- Don't they have cap issues? Still have Sanchez and might want to give Geno another year also could draft another QB

Vikings- Will have a high enough pick to take one

Raiders- Pryor/Mgloin (spelling) have been decent enough that they probably go with one of them

Cardinals- Is Palmer a FA after the year?

 

Those are the only teams I can see having interest in him after the year other than the Bears and they all seem to have reasonable alternatives to not signing him. Jets/Vikings probably would be the two biggest threats to sign him and maybe the Cards if Palmer is a FA.

Really?

[cubbyvirus00]

I'm having a hard time picturing a big market for Cutler this offseason let alone one where he will get a huge contract (even though it only takes one team). The teams that need a QB all seem to have reasonable alternatives/limitations.

 

Browns- 2 first round picks, still might want to see what Hoyer can do post injury

Jags- Likely will be picking in the top 5 to get a QB

Houston- Same as Jags and also still owe Schaub a lot of money

Jets- Don't they have cap issues? Still have Sanchez and might want to give Geno another year also could draft another QB

Vikings- Will have a high enough pick to take one

Raiders- Pryor/Mgloin (spelling) have been decent enough that they probably go with one of them

Cardinals- Is Palmer a FA after the year?

 

Those are the only teams I can see having interest in him after the year other than the Bears and they all seem to have reasonable alternatives to not signing him. Jets/Vikings probably would be the two biggest threats to sign him and maybe the Cards if Palmer is a FA.

 

With Mariota and Hundley possibly staying in school, this QB class is looking more thin. Also factor in the 2 ACL surgerys for both Mettenberger and Murray I cant see there being more then 3 QBs taken in the first round. (Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr)

 

I read Emery's quote as basically saying they're going to look to re-sign Jay to a reasonable extension first and use the franchise tag as a fallback option.

[cubbyvirus00]

weird, then why don't they just throw constant jump balls to whomever of Marshall/Jeffrey/M.Bennett's being singled? you don't need any arm to do that

 

You do need an arm because you have to have the threat of a quick slant in the end zone to make the jump ball a possibility. The opposition has to honor the inside or else they aren't getting that throw. And the Bears have been down there and unable to get that throw on more than one occasion because defenses aren't fooled into thinking there is a chance McCown will hum one in there.

 

I personally don't think they're trying enough throws in the red zone in a critical situation. How many times are we going to see Trestman call a run on a short and goal play only to see Garza and the entire oline blown backwards for a loss?

 

There's been multiple situations in the past 3 weeks where we're calling an offensive play without our best and biggest playmakers in the red zone, let alone having them on the field during that play. That's been my biggest criticism of Trestman, not so much the 2nd down FG. In my mind, our playoff chances were gone after the Rams game.

[Guest]

I'm having a hard time picturing a big market for Cutler this offseason let alone one where he will get a huge contract (even though it only takes one team). The teams that need a QB all seem to have reasonable alternatives/limitations.

 

Browns- 2 first round picks, still might want to see what Hoyer can do post injury

Jags- Likely will be picking in the top 5 to get a QB

Houston- Same as Jags and also still owe Schaub a lot of money

Jets- Don't they have cap issues? Still have Sanchez and might want to give Geno another year also could draft another QB

Vikings- Will have a high enough pick to take one

Raiders- Pryor/Mgloin (spelling) have been decent enough that they probably go with one of them

Cardinals- Is Palmer a FA after the year?

 

Those are the only teams I can see having interest in him after the year other than the Bears and they all seem to have reasonable alternatives to not signing him. Jets/Vikings probably would be the two biggest threats to sign him and maybe the Cards if Palmer is a FA.

 

With Mariota and Hundley possibly staying in school, this QB class is looking more thin. Also factor in the 2 ACL surgerys for both Mettenberger and Murray I cant see there being more then 3 QBs taken in the first round. (Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr)

 

I read Emery's quote as basically saying they're going to look to re-sign Jay to a reasonable extension first and use the franchise tag as a fallback option.

 

UCF's Blake Bortles is a first rounder in my eyes (if he turns pro).

[UMFan83]

I'm having a hard time picturing a big market for Cutler this offseason let alone one where he will get a huge contract (even though it only takes one team). The teams that need a QB all seem to have reasonable alternatives/limitations.

 

Browns- 2 first round picks, still might want to see what Hoyer can do post injury

Jags- Likely will be picking in the top 5 to get a QB

Houston- Same as Jags and also still owe Schaub a lot of money

Jets- Don't they have cap issues? Still have Sanchez and might want to give Geno another year also could draft another QB

Vikings- Will have a high enough pick to take one

Raiders- Pryor/Mgloin (spelling) have been decent enough that they probably go with one of them

Cardinals- Is Palmer a FA after the year?

 

Those are the only teams I can see having interest in him after the year other than the Bears and they all seem to have reasonable alternatives to not signing him. Jets/Vikings probably would be the two biggest threats to sign him and maybe the Cards if Palmer is a FA.

 

All of those teams have been burned by 1st round QB busts in the last decade. Weeden, Quinn, Gabbert, Carr, Sanchez, Ponder, Russell, Leinart. Cutler isn't a superstar but he's more of a sure thing to be at least slightly above average. Most of those teams either have a lot of holes to fill besides QB or have a pieces in place except QB.

[Soul]

I'm having a hard time picturing a big market for Cutler this offseason let alone one where he will get a huge contract (even though it only takes one team). The teams that need a QB all seem to have reasonable alternatives/limitations.

 

Browns- 2 first round picks, still might want to see what Hoyer can do post injury

Jags- Likely will be picking in the top 5 to get a QB

Houston- Same as Jags and also still owe Schaub a lot of money

Jets- Don't they have cap issues? Still have Sanchez and might want to give Geno another year also could draft another QB

Vikings- Will have a high enough pick to take one

Raiders- Pryor/Mgloin (spelling) have been decent enough that they probably go with one of them

Cardinals- Is Palmer a FA after the year?

 

Those are the only teams I can see having interest in him after the year other than the Bears and they all seem to have reasonable alternatives to not signing him. Jets/Vikings probably would be the two biggest threats to sign him and maybe the Cards if Palmer is a FA.

 

All of those teams have been burned by 1st round QB busts in the last decade. Weeden, Quinn, Gabbert, Carr, Sanchez, Ponder, Russell, Leinart. Cutler isn't a superstar but he's more of a sure thing to be at least slightly above average. Most of those teams either have a lot of holes to fill besides QB or have a pieces in place except QB.

 

Yeah, any team that has recently been through a bust at QB in the first couple rounds is going to want to consider just bringing in a solid vet. That's what the Bears did. It's not all that common for a talent like Cutler to hit the market (though it's interesting if Cutler does it *twice*) so I would expect he'll receive a heck of a lot of interest, and a whole lot of money.

 

I'm not as positive on Emery's comments as some of you. I think he's starting to signal that Cutler leaving this offseason is a very real possibility. I'm sure he'll try to keep him, but if it's going to be a ton of money, it would not surprise me at all if he lets him go and tries to use McCown as a bridge to get to his eventual long-term starter.

 

And I will be angry if he does it.