DeJesus traded to Nats for PTBNL

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

You're already past the point of no return in terms of getting any kind of return you SHOULD get for Castro; at this point you have to just hold on and pray that he bounces back.

 

Pretty much.

 

That doesn't sound like the sort of hyperational game-theoryism that I expect from this front office. That's a gambler chasing losses.

[Guest]

If DeJesus is a 1.5 win player, then we saved $2.5m in cash for a player who is projected to be about a $2.5m in surplus value. Just sayin'.

 

you're the guy who can't stand the $/WAR, especially when used for lower value players, correct?

 

Mostly. It's overused and misread a lot.

 

I wasn't meaning that to be a deeply meaningful point. Just a cute coincidence.

 

It's a point that I agree with you on, BTW. A 1 win player is not worth $5-6M.

[Guest]

I've had a little time to think about this and if this deal were done at the trade deadline I don't think much of the topic of the previous pages would exist. Maybe they had a deal in place but the Nats wanted DeJesus to prove he was healthy. It's just the timing that makes it look so bad. I still really really hope it was not done for financial reasons alone. If it was, boy the Cubs are not a healthy franchise financially.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/jed-hoyer-confirms-money-the-big-issue-in-david-dejesus-trade.html

 

Cubs GM Hoyer confirms money the big issue in moving DeJesus. Saves 2.5 mil. Hoyer left door open for DeJesus return if option not picked up

 

— Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) August 19, 2013

[XZero771679666304]

 

You're already past the point of no return in terms of getting any kind of return you SHOULD get for Castro; at this point you have to just hold on and pray that he bounces back.

 

Pretty much.

 

That doesn't sound like the sort of hyperational game-theoryism that I expect from this front office. That's a gambler chasing losses.

 

All right, you hold on to him and expect that he regresses to the mean.

[Guest]

http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/jed-hoyer-confirms-money-the-big-issue-in-david-dejesus-trade.html

 

Cubs GM Hoyer confirms money the big issue in moving DeJesus. Saves 2.5 mil. Hoyer left door open for DeJesus return if option not picked up

 

— Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) August 19, 2013

[expletive]

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I don't understand all the talk about DeJesus returning to the Cubs next year. I can't imagine the Nationals, who are 9.5 games out of the second wild card spot right now, would have dealt for him if they don't plan to hang onto him next year. Also, why is he being talked about as a bench bat for Washington? He's been worth more WAR than Span in about 60% as many plate appearances.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

All right, you hold on to him and expect that he regresses to the mean.

 

I think it's a lot more complicated than that.

 

First and foremost, I think it has to be a scouting decision. His performance is way too wonky to just look at his Fangraphs page and estimate that he'll be halfway between the last two years or whatever. They have to decide if they think he can be fixed or not.

 

Then they also have to decide how badly they want whatever they think he is going to do, vs. how badly someone else may want him. We actually are on the verge of having two MLB shortstops, and while either *Could* move to another position, it doesn't maximize their value if there's a good trade to be made.

 

Other teams know about regression to the mean, too. If someone out there likes him, and they offer us something we really like, I don't have a problem with moving him. Even if it is a "sell low" or whatever.

[XZero771679666304]

 

All right, you hold on to him and expect that he regresses to the mean.

 

I think it's a lot more complicated than that.

 

First and foremost, I think it has to be a scouting decision. His performance is way too wonky to just look at his Fangraphs page and estimate that he'll be halfway between the last two years or whatever. They have to decide if they think he can be fixed or not.

 

Then they also have to decide how badly they want whatever they think he is going to do, vs. how badly someone else may want him. We actually are on the verge of having two MLB shortstops, and while either *Could* move to another position, it doesn't maximize their value if there's a good trade to be made.

 

Other teams know about regression to the mean, too. If someone out there likes him, and they offer us something we really like, I don't have a problem with moving him. Even if it is a "sell low" or whatever.

 

I was mostly making a smartass comment.

 

And other teams also know about statistical regression, but they'd also certainly use his performance as leverage. From what Dale has said it seems like they've identified some mechanical flaws that can be addressed. The decision then becomes "do we take a chance that we can fix these problems, or do we deal him while his value is low and before his replacement is ready"? Unfortunately there is no formula to provide a strong indication of which route to take, at least with the information we have.

 

Being that Baez isn't yet ready (even if he was, I doubt Theo/Jed don't make the play the protects the extra year of eligibility) and neither is Bryant, I doubt they trade him this offseason. His physical gifts (namely his hand/eye) are still very apparent, and I don't think the FO would be so quick to trade him for what he'd likely fetch, at least before they really try and work his flaws out.

[UK1679666180]

http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/jed-hoyer-confirms-money-the-big-issue-in-david-dejesus-trade.html

 

Cubs GM Hoyer confirms money the big issue in moving DeJesus. Saves 2.5 mil. Hoyer left door open for DeJesus return if option not picked up

 

— Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) August 19, 2013

 

Thats not surprising, I dont think it gives us a clearer picture of their financial state. Just a wise baseball move.

 

It would be idiotic to trade Castro at this stage.

[Little Slide Rooter]

You can throw out as much rationale as it takes to make you feel good, but if no useful player return comes out of this, it's stupid. For 6.5 MM, a guy who could actually help us win in 2014 rather than hope and pray that Brett Jackson remembers how to play baseball would be a very wise move.

[Guest]

You can throw out as much rationale as it takes to make you feel good, but if no useful player return comes out of this, it's stupid. For 6.5 MM, a guy who could actually help us win in 2014 rather than hope and pray that Brett Jackson remembers how to play baseball would be a very wise move.

 

Nobody is hoping and praying anything about Brett Jackson nor do they need to.

 

Did you forget we're locking up Sweeney?

[Sammy Sofa]

You can throw out as much rationale as it takes to make you feel good, but if no useful player return comes out of this, it's stupid. For 6.5 MM, a guy who could actually help us win in 2014 rather than hope and pray that Brett Jackson remembers how to play baseball would be a very wise move.

 

Holy Hell, you know how to make everyone realize you've been quite for a while. Who the bloody blue [expletive] is even talking about Brett Jackson?!?

[Castros trade value]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 6m Sources: DeJesus back on waivers. Do #Nationals really want him? Story: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/washington-nationals-david-dejesus-chicago-cubs-trade-081913 …

[Guest]

why even agree to the PTBNL if they didn't want him?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

why even agree to the PTBNL if they didn't want him?

 

Two possibilities:

 

1) They saw a chance to take advantage of a Cubs team desperate to shed payroll and flip him up for more value further down the line

 

2) This is just part of the "everybody goes through waivers" part of August and it's stupid that it's being reported like a story.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 15m

Could turn out to be that WAS acquisition of David DeJesus was just a waiver-claim mistake. Not really a fit...We'll see if they move him...

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Um, wtf.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 15m

Could turn out to be that WAS acquisition of David DeJesus was just a waiver-claim mistake. Not really a fit...We'll see if they move him...

 

That makes no sense.

 

If it was a mistake, the Nats could have said to the Cubs "pull him back or give him for nothing, but we're not offering anything." By offering a PTBNL, they clearly wanted him to some degree or another.

[Irrelevant Dude]

This is just part of the "everybody goes through waivers" part of August and it's stupid that it's being reported like a story.

That is what I'm thinking. Washington is already a long shot to make the playoffs. In the event they don't make up significant ground by the end of the month, it doesn't hurt to keep their trade options open by getting DeJesus through waivers.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 15m

Could turn out to be that WAS acquisition of David DeJesus was just a waiver-claim mistake. Not really a fit...We'll see if they move him...

Umm.... Ok???

 

Is Jerry Angelo running the Nationals?

[toonsterwu]

Interesting move, I don't see us giving him away. He's a luxury as a 4th OFer for the Nats, but my guess is they can find 400 AB's for him next year. I'm guessing the PTBNL is a guy on their 40 man that wouldn't/didn't clear waivers or hasn't been put thru yet. I'll guess its Nate Karns.

 

That would be a ridiculously good return for DeJesus. If they got Karns for him, wow. That'd be ... amazing for DeJesus. My hunch is that that'd be a tad much for a guy who is going to be the 4th OF for the Nats, but I hope you are right.

[toonsterwu]

Personally, I'd be surprised if Lake has an everyday spot on opening day. Sweeney in LF or CF, Schierholtz in RF, and someone from the Granderson/Ellsbury/Choo/Cruz group in LF or CF would be my guess. Lake could be the 4th outfielder and platoon partner for one of those spots. Would need another righty outfielder on the bench as well (Vitters?).

 

I still am highly doubtful that this FO will make that big veteran "top-tier free agent" splash this off-season. After 2014, with more and more prospects, particularly arms,in the upper levels? I can see that, but it just feels like this is one-year early to make that big splash, based on what the FO has said and done. Granted, maybe they are trying to get everyone to think that way for a specific purpose, but with so many teams flush with money, I'm taking them at face-value for now.

 

I'm the opposite; I think this means they are very interested in bringing someone in for 2014.

 

They signed Edwin for decent $$ this offseason at a position of weakness, why wouldn't they try to do the same for the lineup? Add an OF, get somewhat bounce back years from Castro/Rizzo and this lineup isn't looking all that bad.

 

I could see them getting an "Edwin Jackson" 2nd tier addition. I'm just not sure I see them going after the Granderson's/Ellsbury's/Choo's of the world. Here's hoping you guys are right, as it'd be nice to be ... better ... but I'm just not sure I buy it. Of the trio, the only one I could remotely see is probably Ellsbury, unless the other guy's prices came cheaper than expected. But Ellsbury's probably getting to get impact, top tier money, and I just remain doubtful.

 

Having not seen a FA list yet (too lazy to check), I don't know who would qualify, in my mind, as a 2nd tier FA, but I'm just not sure I see them going after a guy considered an elite free agent this summer. But that's me.

[Guest]

They offered Sanchez 70 million last year, I don't think they're going to hesitate on going after someone like Choo or Ellsbury because they aren't ready to compete(which doesn't exist in the first place).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They offered Sanchez 70 million last year, I don't think they're going to hesitate on going after someone like Choo or Ellsbury because they aren't ready to compete(which doesn't exist in the first place).

 

I don't think they're going to hesitate, but in this FA market, I think they are going to get outbid. The Edwin Jackson-level guys are the best available this time around.