DeJesus traded to Nats for PTBNL

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Take Junior Lake's projection, bake in a year of improvement, assume he can be a good defensive LFer, I don't think you come up with anything worse than what you'd expect from DeJesus in 2014.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Danny Ecker ‏@DannyEcker 8m

RT @ckamka So with DeJesus going to Nationals, the current #Cubs player with the most career home runs is now Dioner Navarro with 51.

[jersey cubs fan]

Take Junior Lake's projection, bake in a year of improvement, assume he can be a good defensive LFer, I don't think you come up with anything worse than what you'd expect from DeJesus in 2014.

 

If all goes well. Of course he could theoretically do what DeJesus does, without the quality PA, but DeJesus is a safer bet to do what DeJesus does, which is why he gets money.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Take Junior Lake's projection, bake in a year of improvement, assume he can be a good defensive LFer, I don't think you come up with anything worse than what you'd expect from DeJesus in 2014.

 

If all goes well. Of course he could theoretically do what DeJesus does, without the quality PA, but DeJesus is a safer bet to do what DeJesus does, which is why he gets money.

 

I don't think there was anything in there that is any more of an "if" than any other player, expect for the defense.

 

And that's a scouting call, which is why they get money.

[Guest]

Take Junior Lake's projection, bake in a year of improvement, assume he can be a good defensive LFer, I don't think you come up with anything worse than what you'd expect from DeJesus in 2014.

 

DeJesus in LF is a pretty clear 2-2.5 win player, even in decline. I don't think it's too tough to come up with an outcome where Lake is well short there. For example:

 

Lake 2013 ZiPS: .254/.295/.383/.678, 5/1 K/BB

Lake's first 6 games: .519/.536/.852/1.388, 5/1 K/BB

Lake since: .247/.293/.344/.637, 5/1 K/BB

 

I also don't think assuming he's a good defensive LFer is a great idea, though it's not implausible.

[Gilby]

Personally, I'd be surprised if Lake has an everyday spot on opening day. Sweeney in LF or CF, Schierholtz in RF, and someone from the Granderson/Ellsbury/Choo/Cruz group in LF or CF would be my guess. Lake could be the 4th outfielder and platoon partner for one of those spots. Would need another righty outfielder on the bench as well (Vitters?). Edited August 19, 2013 by Gilby

[rocket]

Danny Ecker ‏@DannyEcker 8m

RT @ckamka So with DeJesus going to Nationals, the current #Cubs player with the most career home runs is now Dioner Navarro with 51.

 

that's got to be some sort of record

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Lake 2013 ZiPS: .254/.295/.383/.678, 5/1 K/BB

Lake's first 6 games: .519/.536/.852/1.388, 5/1 K/BB

Lake since: .247/.293/.344/.637, 5/1 K/BB

 

I also don't think assuming he's a good defensive LFer is a great idea, though it's not implausible.

 

Why would we split Lake's performance into two separate parts like that? Don't see any reason to.

 

Lake's got 128 PAs right now in the majors that say his K rate is about 4-5 points lower than ZIPS was assuming going into the year, that's going to make a big difference on the projection.

 

Fangraphs lists his remaining-season ZIPS projection as 262/302/395. You can only assume that his next season projection would be even a tick higher. (it has DeJesus at 258/338/400, incidentally).

 

The best OBP/SLG/defense comp to that this year would be (lol) Cespedes, who has been worth 2 wins in about a hundred games this year.

 

I could be reading the situation wrong and they don't really think that much of Lake, but to me it's close enough to be a completely defensible call if that's what they are thinking, even bordering on a clearly good one. You are trading 30 points of projected OBP for age, money and upside.

[XZero771679666304]

One of the few ways this makes sense is that DeJesus was as good as dealt at the deadline but someone wanted to make sure he was healthy first. Hopefully they got someone of some value for him, because even though he's not a super duper value at 6.5 million, he's the best LF option on the roster for next year, can obviously fill in at CF, and takes great at bats.

 

Yeah, this is worrisome in terms of going into 2014.

 

I don't think it moves the needle much on 2014 even in a worst case scenario. DeJesus has value, but he's a 1.5-2 win player.

 

I'm with Kyle in that I think this is a vote of confidence in Lake. If he even approximates his performance thus far (yeah, far from a guarantee), it replaces most or all of DeJesus' WAR contribution. Sweeney is a wild card here, too. If the Cubs decide to bring him back, I think he's a good bet to provide some value. And there's always the chance of moves being made that we're not anticipating.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Well, I've not nothing to add at this point except, I'll be damned. Didn't see this coming.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/nobody-effs-with-dejesus.jpg

 

Good night, sweet prince.

[Sammy Sofa]

One of the few ways this makes sense is that DeJesus was as good as dealt at the deadline but someone wanted to make sure he was healthy first. Hopefully they got someone of some value for him, because even though he's not a super duper value at 6.5 million, he's the best LF option on the roster for next year, can obviously fill in at CF, and takes great at bats.

 

Yeah, this is worrisome in terms of going into 2014.

 

I don't think it moves the needle much on 2014 even in a worst case scenario. DeJesus has value, but he's a 1.5-2 win player.

 

I'm with Kyle in that I think this is a vote of confidence in Lake. If he even approximates his performance thus far (yeah, far from a guarantee), it replaces most or all of DeJesus' WAR contribution. Sweeney is a wild card here, too. If the Cubs decide to bring him back, I think he's a good bet to provide some value. And there's always the chance of moves being made that we're not anticipating.

 

Nobody was saying DeJesus was some kind of make or break player for 2014, but the general consensus was that the Cubs would (or even should) hold onto him as part of the larger idea that they might make an effort to field a team in 2014 that had a shot at competing.

 

That said, his money could go to getting someone like Choo or Ellsbury, which seems infinitely preferable to counting on someone like Lake, so it could still be cool.

 

Or hey, maybe they trade for Stanton and put him in LF.

[Clem Fandango]

They released Roger Bernadina to make room for him

 

Mr. Bernadina? Mr. Roger Bernadina?

[Sammy Sofa]

They released Roger Bernadina to make room for him

 

Mr. Bernadina? Mr. Roger Bernadina?

 

Well done.

[Guest]

Lake 2013 ZiPS: .254/.295/.383/.678, 5/1 K/BB

Lake's first 6 games: .519/.536/.852/1.388, 5/1 K/BB

Lake since: .247/.293/.344/.637, 5/1 K/BB

 

I also don't think assuming he's a good defensive LFer is a great idea, though it's not implausible.

 

Why would we split Lake's performance into two separate parts like that? Don't see any reason to.

 

Lake's got 128 PAs right now in the majors that say his K rate is about 4-5 points lower than ZIPS was assuming going into the year, that's going to make a big difference on the projection.

 

Fangraphs lists his remaining-season ZIPS projection as 262/302/395. You can only assume that his next season projection would be even a tick higher. (it has DeJesus at 258/338/400, incidentally).

 

The best OBP/SLG/defense comp to that this year would be (lol) Cespedes, who has been worth 2 wins in about a hundred games this year.

 

I could be reading the situation wrong and they don't really think that much of Lake, but to me it's close enough to be a completely defensible call if that's what they are thinking, even bordering on a clearly good one. You are trading 30 points of projected OBP for age, money and upside.

 

I don't think we really need to re-hash the LaHair arguments from last year, do we?

 

Sequencing matters when there's extreme variance like this. Lake going from middling minor league career numbers to middling AAA performance to INSANE first week in MLB to poor MLB performance the next 3+ weeks is cause for consideration that his MLB averages might not be representative. There are things working in his favor(unlike LaHair), his pedigree/tools, age, his August has been quite good, but it's not tough to see him bottoming out over the course of a full season like so many guys with his approach and past performance. You can still justify him in LF for various reasons, but we need to be honest about the range of possibilities if we're comparing him to DeJesus. If his projection is ultimately similar(something I personally wouldn't agree with), everyone would have to admit that the variance is way, way higher.

[sneakypower]

DeJesus in LF is a pretty clear 2-2.5 win player, even in decline. I don't think it's too tough to come up with an outcome where Lake is well short there. For example:

 

Lake 2013 ZiPS: .254/.295/.383/.678, 5/1 K/BB

Lake's first 6 games: .519/.536/.852/1.388, 5/1 K/BB

Lake since: .247/.293/.344/.637, 5/1 K/BB

 

I also don't think assuming he's a good defensive LFer is a great idea, though it's not implausible.

DeJesus has played at a 2-win pace for the last two seasons with the huge benefit of having shielded ABs; that's all well & good, but finding a capable RH half of a platoon has proven easier said than done (Sappelt, Borbon, Hairston have combined for -1.4 fWAR)

 

so if you feel confident Lake can stay healthy for a full season, he would easily match the combined 1.5 WAR you're expecting with even just a .300 OBP/.395 SLG like ZiPS projects and slightly above-average fielding & baserunning, albeit with more volatility (and upside)

Edited August 19, 2013 by sneakypower

[mul21]

That said, his money could go to getting someone like Choo or Ellsbury, which seems infinitely preferable to counting on someone like Lake, so it could still be cool.

 

 

I'm going to choose to believe that this is the reason for the trade and they're planning on a Sweeney/Lake CF platoon to go with Schierholtz/whoever in RF to have an over all very productive OF.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The difference between the LaHair argument and this is that Lake's peripherals haven't changed all that much. He just had a crazy BABIP early, which we all knew wasn't sustainable.

 

This is the fun of splitting player's data down arbitrarily. We can make it look like whatever we want.

 

Lake's July - 310/333/466, 3.3% BB, 21.3% K

Lake's August - 306/358/452, 6.0% BB, 25.0% K

 

Both of those come with unsustainable BABIPs, but it's not as if he hasn't performed across his entire sample.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Hairyducked Idiot

[toonsterwu]

Personally, I'd be surprised if Lake has an everyday spot on opening day. Sweeney in LF or CF, Schierholtz in RF, and someone from the Granderson/Ellsbury/Choo/Cruz group in LF or CF would be my guess. Lake could be the 4th outfielder and platoon partner for one of those spots. Would need another righty outfielder on the bench as well (Vitters?).

 

I still am highly doubtful that this FO will make that big veteran "top-tier free agent" splash this off-season. After 2014, with more and more prospects, particularly arms,in the upper levels? I can see that, but it just feels like this is one-year early to make that big splash, based on what the FO has said and done. Granted, maybe they are trying to get everyone to think that way for a specific purpose, but with so many teams flush with money, I'm taking them at face-value for now.

[Guest]

They released Roger Bernadina to make room for him

 

Mr. Bernadina? Mr. Roger Bernadina?

 

Hahaha.

[davell]

Interesting move, I don't see us giving him away. He's a luxury as a 4th OFer for the Nats, but my guess is they can find 400 AB's for him next year. I'm guessing the PTBNL is a guy on their 40 man that wouldn't/didn't clear waivers or hasn't been put thru yet. I'll guess its Nate Karns.

[Guest]

DeJesus just left Chicago?

[Old Style]

DeJesus just left Chicago?

But he's not bound for New Orleans.

[Old Style]

Does Kim have to go too or can we keep her?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Interesting move, I don't see us giving him away. He's a luxury as a 4th OFer for the Nats, but my guess is they can find 400 AB's for him next year. I'm guessing the PTBNL is a guy on their 40 man that wouldn't/didn't clear waivers or hasn't been put thru yet. I'll guess its Nate Karns.

 

Karns is killing it in AA this year.

 

A late-blooming pitching prospect who's just now learning to pitch from his very big and strong frame after recovering from shoulder surgery a couple of years back, the Nationals' own Nathan Karns looks like he could step up into MLB soon. In 116 innings split between low and high-A ball last season, the right-handed Karns showed mastery of his 98mph fastball, turning in a scintillating 2.17 ERA, 1.01 WHIP season. A new ability to throw a quality curve for strikes and a developing change also helped him strike out nearly twelve batters per nine innings of work. A bit under the radar thanks to his advanced age, Karns could be a surprise savior if the Nats suffer injury this year. If not, he's on track for a storybook rookie debut at the age of 26 next season.

[Warpticon]

Does Kim have to go too or can we keep her?

 

Paul Sullivan has gone thorugh a few boxes of tissue over this news.

 

Probably crying also