NSBB Top 50 Prospects

[pitchcs]

I hadn't yet considered where I would rate Fujikawa but he'd definitely be in my top 10.

 

Oh gosh, I would hope so. I mean I only know what I've read and briefly seen, but still.

[toonsterwu]

Considering Marco is outside of my top 10, no, I wouldn't have fought to have him on there right now. I mean, if you are going to have Candelario on there, then Marco should be on there, but he's really not a consideration for me at 5 this year. If anything, I'd argue Arismendy Alcantara should deserve consideration, but I seem to be in the minority. I know there are concerns about his defense (growing out of the position ... but I'm not sure he puts on that much more and physically, he has the ability to stay at short now, but not the consistency) and offense, bu next year, he'll likely be a 21 year old shortstop starting in AA, with solid to good defensive tools, coming off a good offensive season, showing solid pop. This isn't skating over his concerns - they are there, but it's an intriguing package. If a guy like Torreyes is on there now, I don't see why Alcantara wouldn't be.

 

As for Fujikawa, he'd probably slide into my revamped 7-10 slots. Not sure where - year b year, he's likely to continue the decline that has been reported, but his stuff is good enough for the bigs now and you assume he has enough polish and command.

[Guest]

Considering Marco is outside of my top 10, no, I wouldn't have fought to have him on there right now. I mean, if you are going to have Candelario on there, then Marco should be on there, but he's really not a consideration for me at 5 this year. If anything, I'd argue Arismendy Alcantara should deserve consideration, but I seem to be in the minority. I know there are concerns about his defense (growing out of the position ... but I'm not sure he puts on that much more and physically, he has the ability to stay at short now, but not the consistency) and offense, bu next year, he'll likely be a 21 year old shortstop starting in AA, with solid to good defensive tools, coming off a good offensive season, showing solid pop. This isn't skating over his concerns - they are there, but it's an intriguing package. If a guy like Torreyes is on there now, I don't see why Alcantara wouldn't be.

 

As for Fujikawa, he'd probably slide into my revamped 7-10 slots. Not sure where - year b year, he's likely to continue the decline that has been reported, but his stuff is good enough for the bigs now and you assume he has enough polish and command.

Yeah, I should have Alcantara on the list, too.

[Guest]

FYI, I have Alberto Cabrera in my top 15.

[Guest]

FYI, I have Alberto Cabrera in my top 15.

I'll add him to the list next round.

[ScrubMD]

Do people not think Whitenack will bounce back or am I over-remembering how good he was before his injury?

[javy knows my name]

Do people not think Whitenack will bounce back or am I over-remembering how good he was before his injury?

 

I've been asking myself the same question. I think my excitement about him was inflated because of just how bad our pitching outlook was around that time (2010, I guess?). I remember hearing ceiling of a #3 starter, which I kind of discounted as conservative. The fact is, that was our most exciting pitching prospect. I'd like to think that even if he bounces back, he's just borderline top-10 in our much-improved system.

[jumbo]

Do people not think Whitenack will bounce back or am I over-remembering how good he was before his injury?

 

I've been asking myself the same question. I think my excitement about him was inflated because of just how bad our pitching outlook was around that time (2010, I guess?). I remember hearing ceiling of a #3 starter, which I kind of discounted as conservative. The fact is, that was our most exciting pitching prospect. I'd like to think that even if he bounces back, he's just borderline top-10 in our much-improved system.

 

He started throwing harder and had better success the season he was injured. A specific concern for me would be that he can't throw as hard without hurting himself.

[toonsterwu]

In terms of ranking Whitenack, I'm thinking of pushing him more towards the top 20. The velocity reports were positive on his return. It'll be his 2nd year off TJ, and he does have a mid-rotation ceiling. Btw, mid-rotation, "3" ceiling, is probably fair. If the velocity is there, he has a plus sinker, but the secondary stuff is more average, although the breaking ball shows a bit better than that on occasion. I think it's hard to rank him higher because of the fact that he still has to perform at the level he was doing in 2011 to really justify it. If he does, then sure, he would deserve to be higher, as a ready arm with mid-rotation potential.

[Guest]

Well, we actually went to 50. Here's the list:

 

#1: Javier Baez

#2: Jorge Soler

#3: Albert Almora

#4: Arodys Vizcaino

#5: Dan Vogelbach

#6: Brett Jackson

#7: Juan Paniagua

#8: Christian Villanueva

#9: Dillon Maples

#10: Josh Vitters

#11: Pierce Johnson

#12: Junior Lake

#13: Jeimer Candelario

#14: Duane Underwood

#15: Matt Szczur

#16: Arismendy Alcantara

#17: Ronald Torreyes

#18: Marco Hernandez

#19: Gioskar Amaya

#20: Alberto Cabrera

#21: Logan Watkins

#22: Rob Whitenack

#23: Barrett Loux

#24: Ben Wells

#25: Paul Blackburn

#26: Hector Rondon

#27: Starling Peralta

#28: Tony Zych

#29: Jae-Hoon Ha

#30: Trey McNutt

#31: Steve Bruno

#32: Michael Jensen

#33: Trey Martin

#34: Tayler Scott

#35: Jose Arias

#36: Ryan McNeil

#37: Jose Rosario

#38: Shawon Dunston Jr.

#39: Nick Struck

#40: Austin Reed

#41: Reggie Golden

#42: Carlos Penalver

#43: Marcus Hatley

#44: Frandy de la Rosa

#45: Daury Torrez

#46: Kyle Hendricks

#47: Tim Saunders

#48: Willson Contreras

#49: Matt Loosen

#50: Chris Rusin

[Rob]

That's awesome.

 

Raisin, thanks so much for all the work you put into this.

[jersey cubs fan]

No Gretzky?

[Bilbo161]

Would liked to have seen Andreoli get on there near the end but a very nice list. Much thanks Rasin. :clapping:

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Top 50 prospects

 

Maybe change title of this thread and make the list the first post?

[Guest]

I updated the first post with the list, as well as two custom pages from fangraphs with all the players from the list.

 

For those too lazy to go to the first post...

 

The progress can be followed here and here.

[toonsterwu]

I decided to try and do a top 20 for the fun of it ... and boy, after 8, it's not easy. Some random, pointless splits comments first:

 

- Christian Villanueva should hit just on the road. I've got no idea why the splits are that wide.

- If I didn't look, I wouldn't have realized that PJ Francescon was doing quite well on the road. Still think he might be an intriguing guy to ponder if moved to the pen.

- Zach Cates and Barrett Loux shouldn't go on the road ...

 

So, the top 8 shouldn't be an issue in terms of players

 

Tier 1

 

1. Jorge Soler - Bat just seems more polished right now.

2. Javier Baez - Upside's higher than Soler's, but not as refined. Still, when he's hot, damn.

3. Kris Bryant - I can see him at 2, but Baez is still at a tougher position, power upsides seem similar, and there is, on paper, some questions on both guys.

4. Albert Almora - Could see him at 1, 2, 3, depending on your tastes, but just want to see more before I push him up.

 

Tier 2

 

5. Arismendy Alcantara - Up the middle, young player who shows an intriguing offensive mix that should play if moved to 2nd.

6. Pierce Johnson - Can buy him at 5, just going with the positional player in a higher level. It's not fair, but I sort of want to see how Pierce does in A+.

 

7. Rob Zastryzny - Thought it over a bit. College lefty with at least 3 average pitches, good pitchability, and some velocity? It's a tough call, as Vogelbach has looked very solid in MWL, but that profile gets the nod over the first baseman in MWL.

8. Daniel Vogelbach - Could really see those numbers explode away from the MWL. If that happens, he'll go zooming up.

 

then ... bleh ... bleh isn't a reflection on the raw talent/intrigue, but more ... that it's ridiculously hard to order ... 1 stab at it

 

9. Arodys Vizcaino - I tried to talk myself away from this. As talented as he is, having missed so much time is something that has to be factored in. Still, the upside got the nod, as I couldn't make a case for anyone else.

10. Alberto Cabrera - I don't want to put him here. I'm loathe to put guys that I think are pen arms this high. Still, who else? One of the following three bats? All three of whom who have big questions? Szczur? Cabrera feels like a guy who can at least be a pen arm. Furthermore, lefties aren't giving him the past problems that I recall (could be wrong, but I recall he struggled against lefties as a starter coming up. Maybe it's someone else) He's a better pitcher than when he was in AA in 2011, but that doesn't say much.

 

11. Christian Villanueva - I'm not exactly enthused by him, but he's hitting well on the road and he plays good D at 3rd. He might not be a long term option, but a year or two? I gave him the nod over Candelario because Candelario's still raw and developing into his offense (plus hot and cold this year) and Lake because I want to see how Lake does in his first AAA go around.

12. Junior Lake - Upside is ahead of Villanueva's, so I can see an argument to move him ahead.

13. Jeimer Candelario - Still growing into his offense. Upside's ahead of Villanueva's, offensively, so could see an argument here.

14. Matt Szczur - Can see an argument to put him at 10. Looks like a potential 2nd division starting CF, a stopgap type. To use a comp, a Brett Gardner type.

 

 

15. Kyle Hendricks - The plus command is holding, which is needed for him to be a starter.

16 - 18. Dillon Maples/Duane Underwood/Juan Carlos Paniagua - Grouping these three together. Maples should be ahead, as he's pitching in full-season and showing he can get K's. We need 1 of these guys to step forward, if not 2.

 

19. Ronald Torreyes - Hot and Cold. I hate that about offensive prospects. Wish there was some consistency. But the fact that he's shown he's hot at times is a nice plus.

 

then .. ?

 

I half want to throw Logan Watkins here, as I don't think the gap between Watkins and Szczur is all that much. Pondered Hanneman/Masek/Frazier, but don't think I can do that. Geiger? Amaya/Hernandez aren't doing enough to justify it (Amaya's K rate bothers me too much anyways). I think both can do better (particularly whenever they graduate from the MWL, if they do). Jokisch/Ha/BJax/Vitters are thoughts. Am I being too reactionary? Perhaps. I would lean to Ben Wells, but that's iffy. That said, his GB rate is basically the same, and that's a nice sight.

 

There's a lot of depth. I mean, the talent at 35-40 in the system isn't going to be that significantly off from 10-11, and that's a testament to the guys there and not as much of a statement on 10/11. Could order this a ton of ways, but took a stab at it for fun. By the way, I'm blanking, but what happened to Michael Jensen again?

[Guest]

it seems so bizarre that we had szczur over alcantara just a few months ago. whoops

[Little Slide Rooter]

Not really. Yeah, Alcantara was coming off a breakout but injury shortened season. Szczur was still getting by on reputation at that point, and torched A+ before struggling in AA last year, and now he seems to be handling AA pretty well. But if Alcantara did manage a full season last year, I reckon he'd have been no doubt higher, if for no other reason than position.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see both in Iowa in the not too distant future.

[wekim81]

Toonster, like your list a lot, with one exception - the 2nd round pick this year. Everything about him screams #4 starter at BEST, and he's not made one pitch professionally yet. In my mind, he's not top 15.

[Guest]

Seems odd to leave Zastryzny out of the top 15 for lack of upside(which I don't necessarily think is true) when the rest of that Top 15 has names like Hendricks, Szczur, even Cabrera/Vizcaino who seem likely relievers.

[jersey cubs fan]

Seems odd to leave Zastryzny out of the top 15 for lack of upside(which I don't necessarily think is true) when the rest of that Top 15 has names like Hendricks, Szczur, even Cabrera/Vizcaino who seem likely relievers.

 

Well, lack of upside and the fact that he hasn't thrown a pitch as a pro yet.

[Guest]

Toonster, like your list a lot, with one exception - the 2nd round pick this year. Everything about him screams #4 starter at BEST, and he's not made one pitch professionally yet. In my mind, he's not top 15.

 

Disagree, his ceiling is a #3.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Seems odd to leave Zastryzny out of the top 15 for lack of upside(which I don't necessarily think is true) when the rest of that Top 15 has names like Hendricks, Szczur, even Cabrera/Vizcaino who seem likely relievers.

 

Well, lack of upside and the fact that he hasn't thrown a pitch as a pro yet.

 

When you are battling it out to fill out the top 15 with guys who have been mediocre as a pro, the uncertainty works in your favor.

[wekim81]

Toonster, like your list a lot, with one exception - the 2nd round pick this year. Everything about him screams #4 starter at BEST, and he's not made one pitch professionally yet. In my mind, he's not top 15.

 

Disagree, his ceiling is a #3.

I don't agree with that - but I think we'll see. I'd put Cabrera and Vizcaino ahead of him for sure..maybe Hendricks (although i admittedly might be higher on him than most and don't think he's a reliever only at this point). And Paniagua's obviously the big wildcard.

 

And then you think about Duane Underwood. Is his upside higher than Z's? I'd say yes. Is his floor lower? For sure. I guess it depends on your personal taste for upside/floor when you rank.

[Guest]

Toonster, like your list a lot, with one exception - the 2nd round pick this year. Everything about him screams #4 starter at BEST, and he's not made one pitch professionally yet. In my mind, he's not top 15.

 

Disagree, his ceiling is a #3.

 

I agree. Hell, as a LHP who can touch 95, I kinda sorta hate to cap it off there. But not enough to say otherwise.