NSBB Top 50 Prospects

[Guest]

Toonster, like your list a lot, with one exception - the 2nd round pick this year. Everything about him screams #4 starter at BEST, and he's not made one pitch professionally yet. In my mind, he's not top 15.

 

Disagree, his ceiling is a #3.

I don't agree with that - but I think we'll see. I'd put Cabrera and Vizcaino ahead of him for sure..maybe Hendricks (although i admittedly might be higher on him than most and don't think he's a reliever only at this point). And Paniagua's obviously the big wildcard.

 

And then you think about Duane Underwood. Is his upside higher than Z's? I'd say yes. Is his floor lower? For sure. I guess it depends on your personal taste for upside/floor when you rank.

 

Why do you think he's no better than a 4?

 

Low 90s FB, potential plus change. He needs to develop the breaking pitch to become a #3 level starter.

[wekim81]

Toonster, like your list a lot, with one exception - the 2nd round pick this year. Everything about him screams #4 starter at BEST, and he's not made one pitch professionally yet. In my mind, he's not top 15.

 

Disagree, his ceiling is a #3.

I don't agree with that - but I think we'll see. I'd put Cabrera and Vizcaino ahead of him for sure..maybe Hendricks (although i admittedly might be higher on him than most and don't think he's a reliever only at this point). And Paniagua's obviously the big wildcard.

 

And then you think about Duane Underwood. Is his upside higher than Z's? I'd say yes. Is his floor lower? For sure. I guess it depends on your personal taste for upside/floor when you rank.

 

Why do you think he's no better than a 4?

 

Low 90s FB, potential plus change. He needs to develop the breaking pitch to become a #3 level starter.

"potential" plus change. "needs to develop breaking pitch". Only recently "touched" 95 in the SEC tourney. Just a little hesitant on the late helium on this guy. We'll see. Seems like a lot of things would have to break right for him to get there..which we can say for Maples, Underwood, Paniagua, etc. Whereas Cabrera and Vizcaino have the same upside if things break the same way for them, and they're a heck of a lot closer to the show.

 

Just my take.

[toonsterwu]

I completely forgot I posted something, and I haven't been around much anyways.

 

wekim - I don't know if I love Zastryzny, but I don't know if you should get hung up on potential plus change. After all, Cabrera has a slider that flashes plus ability, but he loses his touch on it on occasion. To be clear, I don't love putting Zastryzny that high.

 

I can see the case for Vizcaino to be ahead of him on stuff, but the lack of pitching in the last two years makes it a close call. I've pushed Cabrera for awhile, but he has some similar issues to Zastryzny - inconsistent 3rd pitch, inconsistency with his plus secondary offering. My reason for going Rob ahead has less to do with SNTS and more to do with that I've never really bought Cabrera as a starter (still think he's a pen arm long run, but I hope I'm wrong and he becomes a solid starter).

[Little Slide Rooter]

So where does Olt slot into the list? Does Edwards crack it? Ramirez, once he's officially made PTBNL?

[ctcf]

So where does Olt slot into the list? Does Edwards crack it? Ramirez, once he's officially made PTBNL?

 

I'd put Olt and Edwards in the bottom half of the top 10.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So here's my updated top 15

 

1. Baez

2. Almora

3. Bryant

4. Soler

5. Vizcaino-still have him above Alcantara despite mid season rankings based on pedigree

6. Alcantara

7. Olt

*if Arrieta and Lake still count as a prospects, I guess they check in here

8. Paniagua

9. Johnson

10. Edwards

11. Hendricks

12. Vitters

13. Vogelbach

14 Cabrera: almost as if he hit refresh on his prospect status

15. Candelerio

16. Szczur

17. Villanueva

18. Jackson-likely his last appearance on the list for one reason or another.

19. Maples

20. Pineyero: lovin the K rates

 

 

And after that, the conveyer belt becomes backed up with guys from Boise and below. Great problem to have though. It doesn't seem like that long ago when I'd be trying to decide between guy like Dolis and Kyler Burke to round out the top 10.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

So where does Olt slot into the list? Does Edwards crack it? Ramirez, once he's officially made PTBNL?

 

Wait, are you asking if Edwards cracks the Cubs top 50 prospects?

[Guest]

So here's my updated top 15

 

1. Baez

2. Almora

3. Bryant

4. Soler

5. Vizcaino-still have him above Alcantara despite mid season rankings based on pedigree

6. Alcantara

7. Olt

*if Arrieta and Lake still count as a prospects, I guess they check in here

8. Paniagua

9. Johnson

10. Edwards

11. Hendricks

12. Vitters

13. Vogelbach

14 Cabrera: almost as if he hit refresh on his prospect status

15. Candelerio

16. Szczur

17. Villanueva

18. Jackson-likely his last appearance on the list for one reason or another.

19. Maples

20. Pineyero: lovin the K rates

 

 

And after that, the conveyer belt becomes backed up with guys from Boise and below. Great problem to have though. It doesn't seem like that long ago when I'd be trying to decide between guy like Dolis and Kyler Burke to round out the top 10.

 

Arrieta lost his prospect status a long time ago.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So where does Olt slot into the list? Does Edwards crack it? Ramirez, once he's officially made PTBNL?

 

Wait, are you asking if Edwards cracks the Cubs top 50 prospects?

 

I was referring more to 30. 50's too much for me to delve into.

[Warpticon]

...you realize that doesn't make it any less crazy, right?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I have Edwards at 9 at this moment.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I have Edwards at 9 at this moment.

 

I've got him at 6.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

So where does Olt slot into the list? Does Edwards crack it? Ramirez, once he's officially made PTBNL?

 

Wait, are you asking if Edwards cracks the Cubs top 50 prospects?

 

I was referring more to 30. 50's too much for me to delve into.

 

Yes, I feel pretty safe ranking him ahead of Trey McNutt.

[muntjack]

Seems like Andreoli should be on this list.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Seems like Andreoli should be on this list.

 

I've got him at 30, taking him over Szczur.

[toonsterwu]

Decided to take some time to try and hammer out a list, as I never got around to it and was curious how I felt about things. The biggest difference to me is the increased depth in that 2nd tier, that is, the guys right below the elite tier. It's a messy 2nd tier, as a lot of the guys have warts, but there's better depth there. I'm leaving Junior Lake off, as there's almost no way, IMO, that he doesn't pass service time thresholds.

 

Elite Tier

 

1. Baez

2. Bryant

3. Almora

4. Soler

 

Baez has shown the ability to adjust and adapt, and as of now, you give him the benefit of the doubt on the ability to develop and mollify the concerns with his K rate. In a year, we'll know more. His position and production at a higher level give him the edge on the other three. I could buy cases for any of the other 3 at the 2 slot, but Bryant's power gets the edge. There's a part of me that wonders how we would've felt about Soler by now if he'd played the whole year and gotten a likely bump to AA.

 

The Improved, but messy, 2nd tier

 

5. Pierce Johnson

6. Olt

7. Alcantara

8. Edwards

9. Vogelbach

10. Villanueva

 

I'm not sure I love Pierce at the 5 spot, but his frame projects better as a starter and stuff seem a tick better than Edwards right now. The struggles of Olt (season) and Alcantara (last month and change) makes it hard for me to put them ahead of a good arm like Pierce who has performed well. Olt edges out Alcantara and Edwards for now, as his K's have dropped enough and he still has the glove and power. I was pondering Edwards ahead of both Alcantara/Olt, but Alcantara, despite his struggles of late, has had a good enough year and shown that his offensive improvement last year wasn't a mirage. In another system, he might still be at short. Then, you factor in Edwards frame, and for now, I have the two positional guys ahead. Vogelbach had himself a good year. You could argue for Villanueva higher than Vogelbach. Villanueva's consistent power production year-long, plus his still well-regarded defensive potential, is an intriguing package.

 

The "Intriguing, but ..." 3rd Tier

 

11. Vizcaino - "but he's been too damn injured". Upside puts him in the top tier. Lack of pitching in the past 2 years brings him down.

12. Candelario - "but ... he's far away and we have to see if he can stick at 3rd". Still, the fact that his approach held and that he's shown well at times is a big positive. Power should still come.

13. Zastryzny - "but there isn't much full season performance to judge by". Still, lefties with good velocity, solid secondary options, and a deep arsenal have a shot.

14. Cabrera - "but ... he reached AA the first time in 2010". He had a really nice run as a starter. Do they continue to let him start? Don't know, but my guess is yes. Still, how much do you read into his positive performance in AA this year? Shame he reached an innings limit, as I would've loved to see what he could do in AAA.

 

4th Tier

 

15. Paniagua - Could go higher, but the rust makes it tough to gauge.

16. Hendricks - There's still value in a back of the rotation arm, and Hendricks command gives him a chance. IIRC, there were positive reports on his change-up as well.

17. Pineyro - Live arm, good performance, solid secondary option. Part of me wonders if he shouldn't be higher.

 

I'm having a ridiculous tough time deciding which way to go 18-20 and I wanted to finish this, so just giving it a quick rip-through.

 

18. Contreras - A backstop who is improving and has some pop. Honestly, potential profile reminds me a tiny bit of Welington Castillo.

19. Amaya - There's some pop in the bat, and the K's have settled down.

20. Ha - I contemplated SNTS and Hannemann. If you asked me if Matt Szczur could be a 2nd tier club's starting CF, I'd say perhaps. I even contemplated John Andreoli a bit. Logan Watkins inconsistent offensive season really took him out of the mix for me. Ha is still only 22, has a solid approach. He'll probably never tap into and utilize all his tools, but there's enough there to think he could make a depth OF, and there's certainly more intrigue than say, a Szczur or a Watkins.

 

I gave some mild thought to putting Jokisch in here, but the walks are just a smidge high. Ben Wells breaking ball simply never took another step, but he's quietly had a solid year and it's not hard to imagine him being a workhorse innings eater. A bunch of high upside arms are close, but either too raw, struggled, or was demoted.

 

Anyhow, that was fun.

[jumbo]

Nice list. Not much to fuss about with it

 

Vizcaino, imo, feels like he should only drop to tier 2, but i get it - missed two whole seasons

Maples, with his newly found command, could fit into the 4th tier at least

A lot of pitching options look better to me than Contreras and Ha, though Amaya is more intriguing. I'd even place a likely high end reliever like Black over either of them.

[CoolHandLuke]

Yasiel Balaguert has to be hitting his way towards the back end of a few top 20 lists by now, no?

 

.292/.369/.500 at Boise

[Guest]

Yasiel Balaguert has to be hitting his way towards the back end of a few top 20 lists by now, no?

 

.292/.369/.500 at Boise

 

Top 20 is a bit much for me but he's definitely in my top 30.

[Guest]

We've got ridiculous depth at this point. There are guys who can't crack our top 30 that have a decent shot at making the bigs at some point.

[toonsterwu]

Nice list. Not much to fuss about with it

 

Vizcaino, imo, feels like he should only drop to tier 2, but i get it - missed two whole seasons

Maples, with his newly found command, could fit into the 4th tier at least

A lot of pitching options look better to me than Contreras and Ha, though Amaya is more intriguing. I'd even place a likely high end reliever like Black over either of them.

 

Thanks. I've had a busy year so have only been loosely keeping up and haven't had time to attend games as much. It was fun to try and see how I felt about the system.

 

If Maples mechanics have been fixed to ensure that the command won't be as horrendous as it was in his short stint in KC, then I would slide him up. I just don't know, and I'm wary of reading too much into his Boise performance, where guys with a plus pitch can simply get by.

 

I could go a number of ways on 18-20. Someone like Blackburn could be argued to be in the mix as well. While I put Contreras ahead of Ha, I actually like Ha in the top 20 a bit better than I like Contreras. At some point, the fact that Ha has adjusted and looks to have a decent shot at a major league role (not a starter obviously), combined with his age, should give him a nod. He's just been a tough guy to figure in the yearly rankings for 2-3 years now - a toolsy, young guy with some performance, but enough concerns (lack of power, how elite is that defense in CF, not a great basestealer, although he does have solid enough speed). Anyhow, I can understand going away from Contreras and Ha from the top 20, and I'll go a step further ... I can understand leaving Amaya off as well. He's had a great month (July), a good month (May), a below average month (June), and a crappy month (April). In the first 3 months, he had strikeout rates above 25%.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Yasiel Balaguert has to be hitting his way towards the back end of a few top 20 lists by now, no?

 

.292/.369/.500 at Boise

 

Top 20 is a bit much for me but he's definitely in my top 30.

 

Yep.

[wekim81]

probably should fire this back up.

[wekim81]

i'd really like to do this but we're running out of time. I dont want to step on anyones toes, but I would volunteer to organize it this year...

[davell]

i'd really like to do this but we're running out of time. I dont want to step on anyones toes, but I would volunteer to organize it this year...

I want to do it as well, figured we'd make a deal or two bringing in more prospects, which is why I haven't thought much about it yet. Maybe wait til Febrruary 1st or so?