Season Ticketholder Phone Conference w/ Theo & Jed

[davell]

I'm confident they WILL make noteworthy acquisitions this offseason. Not FA, but another Rizzo type trade or two. Theo said there are 6 guys in our core right now: Castro, Rizzo, Shark, Baez, Soler, and Almora. He wants that doubled by this time next year. Barney, Castillo, Garza, and Brett have a shot at moving into that group. My guess is 2 of them will. A guy like Paniagua or Vizcaino could get there. Our 2nd pick will be there. Probably leaves 2 more to come via trade. I understand some here think its boring as hell to watch this go on, but they have all but said this is a video game rebuild, at this point. To me, you can bitch and moan about the ML roster or you can follow everything else much closer and enjoy the progress thats going on.

[Andy]

Theo: We will make plenty of moves.

By definition, every team in baseball makes 'plenty of moves'. You need them to fill out a roster.

[ctcf]

I'm confident they WILL make noteworthy acquisitions this offseason. Not FA, but another Rizzo type trade or two. Theo said there are 6 guys in our core right now: Castro, Rizzo, Shark, Baez, Soler, and Almora. He wants that doubled by this time next year. Barney, Castillo, Garza, and Brett have a shot at moving into that group. My guess is 2 of them will. A guy like Paniagua or Vizcaino could get there. Our 2nd pick will be there. Probably leaves 2 more to come via trade. I understand some here think its boring as hell to watch this go on, but they have all but said this is a video game rebuild, at this point. To me, you can bitch and moan about the ML roster or you can follow everything else much closer and enjoy the progress thats going on.

 

I completely agree.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

To me, you can bitch and moan about the ML roster or you can follow everything else much closer and enjoy the progress thats going on.

 

http://thiswaytotheegress.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/felicityhuffman.jpg

 

I can do both.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

you people don't deserve a good front office

 

Well, since I already don't deserve them, I'l have some fun with arbitrary endpoints and stripping the context out of facts:

 

Teams GMed by either Theo Epstein or Jed Hoyer have 0 playoff appearances in their last five seasons.

[SouthSideRyan]

Has anyone anywhere ever complained that forfeiting 3 seasons is boring? I think the issue is people think it's stupid and unnecessary.

[sneakypower]

you people don't deserve a good front office

 

Well, since I already don't deserve them, I'l have some fun with arbitrary endpoints and stripping the context out of facts:

 

Teams GMed by either Theo Epstein or Jed Hoyer have 0 playoff appearances in their last five seasons.

you stripped the facts out of facts, too- Boston made the playoffs in 08 and 09

[jumbo]

I'm confident they WILL make noteworthy acquisitions this offseason. Not FA, but another Rizzo type trade or two. Theo said there are 6 guys in our core right now: Castro, Rizzo, Shark, Baez, Soler, and Almora. He wants that doubled by this time next year. Barney, Castillo, Garza, and Brett have a shot at moving into that group. My guess is 2 of them will. A guy like Paniagua or Vizcaino could get there. Our 2nd pick will be there. Probably leaves 2 more to come via trade. I understand some here think its boring as hell to watch this go on, but they have all but said this is a video game rebuild, at this point. To me, you can bitch and moan about the ML roster or you can follow everything else much closer and enjoy the progress thats going on.

 

I completely agree.

 

Likewise. Nicely said, davell.

[Sammys Boombox]

Another subtle hint during his answer to my question that I forgot to include: Theo said he didn't want to put a timeline on things, but that it looks like I have a pretty good idea of what they want to do.

 

He never really addressed my point that the Cubs are in a large market and should be able to compete and develop at the same time. I really wish I could ask him a follow-up question today about why they feel they need to approach it this way. I would ask him if he sees the Cubs having a top five payroll once they enter their "sustained success" window. I'd also like to ask if ballpark improvements, debt reduction, etc. are affecting how he would go about the rebuild. In other words, is he rebuilding this way because they are short on funds in the short-term, or is he rebuilding this way because he feels it's the best way to do it and would rather save the money he's not spending now?

[Guest]

Thanks, Sammy's Boombox!

[Banedon]

Forgot to mention and it's not in the transcript. Jed specifically mentioned a wave of talent coming in that was full of "26 or 27 year olds".

 

I have no idea what that means, but [expletive] this [expletive] is depressing.

 

are there any other sports you've ever wanted to try to pick up? this is the best time for it ever. there's absolutely no reason to pay attention to the cubs next year. even the "young guys" who will be around won't be the young guys who are interesting when we're good again. the only reasons to watch are to confirm that brett jackson can't be a real major league hitter and to make sure starlin castro and anthony rizzo don't get hit in the face by a line drive and die.

 

I've watched so little baseball over the past couple of years...I'm not sure if I'm losing interest as a baseball fan, or if it's just the Cubs being down that has me turning my attention elsewhere. I suspect it's the latter, but at times I fear it's the former.

[Sammys Boombox]

You guys are all very welcome. Next year I will try to give a sooner heads-up so NSBB can have chances to structure a really good question. I know the one I asked has been on the forefront of my mind for awhile.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

you people don't deserve a good front office

 

Well, since I already don't deserve them, I'l have some fun with arbitrary endpoints and stripping the context out of facts:

 

Teams GMed by either Theo Epstein or Jed Hoyer have 0 playoff appearances in their last five seasons.

you stripped the facts out of facts, too- Boston made the playoffs in 08 and 09

 

Epstein 10 and 11, Hoyer 10, 11 and 12.

 

If we don't make the playoffs in 2013, our GM will be 0-for-4, a playoff-missing streak longer than any of Jim Hendry's career.

[Sammys Boombox]

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2012/11/cubsnews11212.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Chicagocubsonlinecom+%28ChicagoCubsOnline.com%29

 

Notes from the noon and evening session. I was on the evening session.

[mul21]

 

Epstein 10 and 11, Hoyer 10, 11 and 12.

 

If we don't make the playoffs in 2013, our GM will be 0-for-4, a playoff-missing streak longer than any of Jim Hendry's career.

 

You have the biggest Enzyte and Viagra induced doom boner that is possible. God you suck.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Epstein 10 and 11, Hoyer 10, 11 and 12.

 

If we don't make the playoffs in 2013, our GM will be 0-for-4, a playoff-missing streak longer than any of Jim Hendry's career.

 

You have the biggest Enzyte and Viagra induced doom boner that is possible. God you suck.

 

I simply listed facts.

 

Nobody likes to hear that the emperor is merely moderately dressed.

[Guest]

I felt re-naming the thread was appropriate.

[javy knows my name]

I felt re-naming the thread was appropriate.

 

What are your thoughts on castrating Kyle?

[Banedon]

 

Epstein 10 and 11, Hoyer 10, 11 and 12.

 

If we don't make the playoffs in 2013, our GM will be 0-for-4, a playoff-missing streak longer than any of Jim Hendry's career.

 

You have the biggest Enzyte and Viagra induced doom boner that is possible. God you suck.

 

I simply listed facts.

 

Nobody likes to hear that the emperor is merely moderately dressed.

 

Jim Hendry only GM'd one team. Not really the same as Jed leaving the Padres and having to start from scratch with the Cubs.

[KingCubsFan]

you people don't deserve a good front office

 

Well, since I already don't deserve them, I'l have some fun with arbitrary endpoints and stripping the context out of facts:

 

Teams GMed by either Theo Epstein or Jed Hoyer have 0 playoff appearances in their last five seasons.

Before the Cubs, those teams won, 90, 71, 89 and 90 games. And for Theo, those were down years. Hendry won 90 games once. In nine seasons.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Before the Cubs, those teams won, 90, 71, 89 and 90 games. And for Theo, those were down years. Hendry won 90 games once. In nine seasons.

 

And they all missed the playoffs. Considering that the defense for these intentional losing seasons is that we're going to have a long run of making the playoffs at the end of them, considering how likely that long run is should factor pretty heavily into assessing the merits of the plan.

 

If we throw away three seasons waiting on the impact wave of homegrown talent, then have a couple of 89- or 90-win, no-playoff seasons after, pretty soon the math just doesn't add up.

[SABR Gamer]

Before the Cubs, those teams won, 90, 71, 89 and 90 games. And for Theo, those were down years. Hendry won 90 games once. In nine seasons.

 

And they all missed the playoffs. Considering that the defense for these intentional losing seasons is that we're going to have a long run of making the playoffs at the end of them, considering how likely that long run is should factor pretty heavily into assessing the merits of the plan.

 

If we throw away three seasons waiting on the impact wave of homegrown talent, then have a couple of 89- or 90-win, no-playoff seasons after, pretty soon the math just doesn't add up.

 

The playoff probability per win in the NL and AL are different, I'm pretty sure you know that.

 

89-90 wins in the NL is MUCH different than the AL.

 

Being the supposed all-know fan you are I thought you would know this by now.

 

"The most valuable wins to a NL club were typically wins 87 through 91, which increased a team’s playoff chances by 57 percentage points."

 

"In the American League, because the two super-powers—NYY and BOS—typically upped the ante for the wild card, the highest leverage wins tended to be wins 90 through 94."

 

90 wins in the NL gives you a much higher chance to make the playoffs than it would in the AL.

[SouthSideRyan]

Maybe we should try to give ourselves an outside chance at 90 wins.

[SABR Gamer]

 

Epstein 10 and 11, Hoyer 10, 11 and 12.

 

If we don't make the playoffs in 2013, our GM will be 0-for-4, a playoff-missing streak longer than any of Jim Hendry's career.

 

 

Under the current playoff format, Epstein would have made the playoffs in both 2010, and 2011, while Jed would have made the playoffs in 2010.

 

Only this years Cubs team and last years Padres team out of the 5 wouldn't be playoff teams in today's MLB. This year's Cubs team you can't really put on them anyway because there wasn't much of a chance they were going to make the playoffs without ruining the future. So really, only one team that was their fault didn't make the playoffs according to what matters today, which kind of hurts your argument and overall anti-Theo/Jed vibe you are going for.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Jim Hendry only GM'd one team. Not really the same as Jed leaving the Padres and having to start from scratch with the Cubs.

 

I'm disputing the bolded.