Season Ticketholder Phone Conference w/ Theo & Jed

[Banedon]

Jim Hendry only GM'd one team. Not really the same as Jed leaving the Padres and having to start from scratch with the Cubs.

 

I'm disputing the bolded.

 

Choosing to, then.

[SABR Gamer]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably doing this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

Edited November 2, 2012 by New York Cubs Fan

[Guest]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably dong this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

 

Or he was just trying to make the point that the team on the field wasn't really reflective of what the payroll number was.

[SouthSideRyan]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably dong this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

 

I'd be overjoyed with a 125M payroll this year. It'd mean we were actually trying.

[XZero771679666304]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably dong this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

 

After reading the "transcript" on BN, it's pretty clear that comment was in regard to deferred salary and otherwise eaten monies that made the payroll look higher than it was, not that it was too high. The implication, imo, was that they won't defer money or backload deals in the future.

[SABR Gamer]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably dong this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

 

Or he was just trying to make the point that the team on the field wasn't really reflective of what the payroll number was.

 

The transcript that I read misinterpreted what they were saying.

 

The artificially high comment was in regards to the payroll in 2008ish (140 million+) was artificially and unsustainably high. I spoke with Ricketts myself and he said the same thing, there isn't much to debate about it. The team isn't going to have a payroll higher than the 125-130 range WHILE they are competing until they get the TV deal and even then with the TV deal it wouldn't get much higher than 145. That's the plan so we should just get used to it.

 

 

ETA: You are right about what you are referring to, I didn't see that part. He was saying that the talent wasn't in line with payroll and the deferred contracts were making the number misleading. Either way, I guess my point is a different point then. Still stands as true though.

Edited November 2, 2012 by New York Cubs Fan

[SouthSideRyan]

The implication, imo, was that they won't defer money or backload deals in the future.

 

Also bad news.

[SouthSideRyan]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably dong this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

 

Or he was just trying to make the point that the team on the field wasn't really reflective of what the payroll number was.

 

The transcript misinterpreted what they were saying. The artificially high comment was in regards to the payroll in 2008ish (140 million+) was artificially and unsustainably high. I had a one on one with Ricketts myself and he said the same thing, there isn't much to debate about it. The team isn't going to have a payroll high than the 125-130 range WHILE they are competing until they get the TV deal and even then with the TV deal it wouldn't get much higher than 145. That's the plan so we should just get used to it.

 

Then Ricketts is robbing the team blind McCourt style.

[SABR Gamer]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably dong this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

 

Or he was just trying to make the point that the team on the field wasn't really reflective of what the payroll number was.

 

The transcript misinterpreted what they were saying. The artificially high comment was in regards to the payroll in 2008ish (140 million+) was artificially and unsustainably high. I had a one on one with Ricketts myself and he said the same thing, there isn't much to debate about it. The team isn't going to have a payroll high than the 125-130 range WHILE they are competing until they get the TV deal and even then with the TV deal it wouldn't get much higher than 145. That's the plan so we should just get used to it.

 

Then Ricketts is robbing the team blind McCourt style.

 

Has to do with the debt and renovations, he isn't making much money at this point.

[SouthSideRyan]

On Theo's plan, the truth is they are probably dong this because Ricketts can't afford to spend a lot while also renovating and paying off debt. I think that much is obvious at this point.

 

It would be wise to start getting used to the fact that the payroll will likely stay around $125 million-$135 million until around 2019 when they have a chance for a new TV deal. Everyone is ignoring the "artificially high" payroll comment, but it doesn't change the fact that they are blatantly setting us up for lower payrolls for years to come while they deal with the financial situation.

 

Or he was just trying to make the point that the team on the field wasn't really reflective of what the payroll number was.

 

The transcript misinterpreted what they were saying. The artificially high comment was in regards to the payroll in 2008ish (140 million+) was artificially and unsustainably high. I had a one on one with Ricketts myself and he said the same thing, there isn't much to debate about it. The team isn't going to have a payroll high than the 125-130 range WHILE they are competing until they get the TV deal and even then with the TV deal it wouldn't get much higher than 145. That's the plan so we should just get used to it.

 

Then Ricketts is robbing the team blind McCourt style.

 

Has to do with the debt and renovations, he isn't making much money at this point.

 

He's probably made ~500M on franchise value alone.

[SABR Gamer]

 

Or he was just trying to make the point that the team on the field wasn't really reflective of what the payroll number was.

 

The transcript misinterpreted what they were saying. The artificially high comment was in regards to the payroll in 2008ish (140 million+) was artificially and unsustainably high. I had a one on one with Ricketts myself and he said the same thing, there isn't much to debate about it. The team isn't going to have a payroll high than the 125-130 range WHILE they are competing until they get the TV deal and even then with the TV deal it wouldn't get much higher than 145. That's the plan so we should just get used to it.

 

Then Ricketts is robbing the team blind McCourt style.

 

Has to do with the debt and renovations, he isn't making much money at this point.

 

He's probably made ~500M on franchise value alone.

 

Sure, that's true, but he hasn't been able to make any real money. All the money they are making has either gone towards paying off the debt, building their baseball academy, or the renovations. They are putting it all back into the team, and since they have a lot of other things they are dealing with it means less goes towards the major league payroll.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

He's probably made ~500M on franchise value alone.

 

Sure, that's true, but he hasn't been able to make any real money. All the money they are making has either gone towards paying off the debt, building their baseball academy, or the renovations. They are putting it all back into the team, and since they have a lot of other things they are dealing with it means less goes towards the major league payroll.

 

They better plan on building a dome and a solid gold statue of Ken Hubbs if the payroll in 2019 is going to be 145M

[SABR Gamer]

 

He's probably made ~500M on franchise value alone.

 

Sure, that's true, but he hasn't been able to make any real money. All the money they are making has either gone towards paying off the debt, building their baseball academy, or the renovations. They are putting it all back into the team, and since they have a lot of other things they are dealing with it means less goes towards the major league payroll.

 

They better plan on building a dome and a solid gold statue of Ken Hubbs if the payroll in 2019 is going to be 145M

 

It could very well be higher than 145, I just wouldn't expect it to be Yankee/Dodger/Red Sox territory. What would the 2019 equivalent be of a 145M 2012 payroll? That's more likely what the number will be.

[SouthSideRyan]

It could very well be higher than 145, I just wouldn't expect it to be Yankee/Dodger/Red Sox territory. What would the 2019 equivalent be of a 145M 2012 payroll? That's more likely what the number will be.

 

There's no reason we can't be in Red Sox territory with a new TV contract. There's not much reason we can't be now.

[SABR Gamer]

It could very well be higher than 145, I just wouldn't expect it to be Yankee/Dodger/Red Sox territory. What would the 2019 equivalent be of a 145M 2012 payroll? That's more likely what the number will be.

 

There's no reason we can't be in Red Sox territory with a new TV contract. There's not much reason we can't be now.

 

$175M wouldn't leave any room for them to pay off debts or renovate Wrigley.

 

How much money do you think they are making? It seems like you think they make a lot more than than actually do.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think they make a lot more than they say they do.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Now that the Dominican Academy is paid for, the stated $200 million baseball ops budget should easily support a $130-$140 million payroll right now, without any growth.

[SABR Gamer]

Now that the Dominican Academy is paid for, the stated $200 million baseball ops budget should easily support a $130-$140 million payroll right now, without any growth.

 

LOL nice sig.

 

Question is, are they counting the Wrigley renovations as part of the baseball budget?

 

ETA: I think your sig is funny because I have actually backed you up on a decent amount of what you say, but it seems like you are taking it to a new level lately. At one point it was reasonable, now you are getting closer to trolling. The problem is most people here are either all out dooms day, or way too optimistic. There is a middle ground that can exist, and a few posters do stay in that zone.

[SouthSideRyan]

$175M wouldn't leave any room for them to pay off debts or renovate Wrigley.

 

How much money do you think they are making? It seems like you think they make a lot more than than actually do.

 

Both paying off debt and renovating Wrigley will be more than recouped when the team is sold. A renovated Wrigley is worth more to Ricketts than a bulldozed Wrigely. It should not affect the big league payroll. The debt to be paid off will allow the sale price down the road to be pure profit.

 

You don't get to strip the actual team on the field of any value so you can make pure profit on the franchise valuation (while improving it with a newly renovated park)and not expect people to be pissed off about it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Does the McDonald's purchase come out of baseball ops?

 

What if we're able to buy a few of the rooftop properties? What if some of the parking lots around the stadium become available?

[SABR Gamer]

$175M wouldn't leave any room for them to pay off debts or renovate Wrigley.

 

How much money do you think they are making? It seems like you think they make a lot more than than actually do.

 

Both paying off debt and renovating Wrigley will be more than recouped when the team is sold. A renovated Wrigley is worth more to Ricketts than a bulldozed Wrigely. It should not affect the big league payroll. The debt to be paid off will allow the sale price down the road to be pure profit.

 

You don't get to strip the actual team on the field of any value so you can make pure profit on the franchise valuation (while improving it with a newly renovated park)and not expect people to be pissed off about it.

 

I am pretty sure selling the team is never going to be in Ricketts' plans. His children, grandchildren, etc will own the team so value of the franchise going up for a sale isn't really something he is banking on to make money.

[SABR Gamer]

Does the McDonald's purchase come out of baseball ops?

 

What if we're able to buy a few of the rooftop properties? What if some of the parking lots around the stadium become available?

 

Rooftops likely won't be bought by the team. When those properties become available the asking price is so high that it defeats the purpose of buying them. Also, revenue sharing rules would hurt their investment. The team is content with the current situation with the rooftops (for now at least).

 

The real problem is getting the city to allow them to put up advertising in the stadium because of the landmark rules.

[davell]

They're on record as to saying any money saved can be used in future seasons. Personally, I don't care what the payroll winds up being. Its well documented you don't need a 200 mill payroll to win. If our payroll hits 110 this year or next, I'll be surprised.

[Sammys Boombox]

I don't think you HAVE to throw away three seasons to build a pipeline to supplement a contending team. But, if Ricketts is very limited on his spending for baseball ops in the short term as compared to what it will be in the long term I think it makes perfect sense. Especially if the Cubs will benefit financially in the long term by being frugal on the baseball ops in the short term.

 

I'm still excited about the notion of having the continuous pipeline and being able to give players contracts similar to what Starlin Castro signed with the Cubs and Salvador Perez signed with the Royals. Sure, some of them will blow up in your face, but the money saved on the successful ones will hopefully more than offset those blow ups. Then, you supplement your pipeline with free agents when necessary.

 

This is why if given a follow-up opportunity I would ask about long-term payroll plans.

[davell]

The two sides here both want the same thing, just want to go about it differently. If the Cubs had added bigger pieces last offseason, more during this offseason and carried 140-150 mill payroll throughout the entirety of the next decade, it IS likely they'd wind up with 6-7 playoff appearances out of it. The other group thinks they can have a sustained run of 6-7 straight by building the way they are. Theo sees the second way though, as the one where you're likely fielding 90+ win teams winning the division year in and year out, instead of possibly getting a few WC playoff berths the other way. We'll know in a decade which side was right.