Season Ticketholder Phone Conference w/ Theo & Jed

[davell]

Good for them. When the time comes, they're stuck in 2009 Cubs territory as an average team with not much of an outlook.

 

That's the deal with the devil small-market teams make. The Brewers had their run, then the Reds are having theirs. When the Reds peter out, maybe the Pirates will be having theirs.

Thats just your doom boner talking. In your heart, you know the Pirates will never have one.

[Guest]

I'd love to see someone put together a history of the No. 1 rated farm systems and see how the results turned out.

 

IIRC, BA's #1 system was really highly correlated with a playoff berth within ~2 years. Not a high bar, but interesting that the state of those MLB teams was pretty varied.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins.

 

Umm, no. Let's not do that.

 

If the Cubs win 90-95+ games each year for 6-7 consecutive years, that's success. If it leads to only 2-3 playoff appearances in that span, that'd still be a much more successful run than the one Hendry had. You can't control what other teams do, but if you're consistently winning 90+, you're getting it done. Hendry did not do this.

 

OK. So if you put enough context on it, our front office's plan might have us on pace to be a little better than Hendry. Hooray?

[nilodnayr]

True, but they're currently in as good or better shape than they were at any point during that time. An extension to Wainwright that goes bad gurts them. Molina's deal will too eventually. Holliday as well. But they have lots of pitching on the way that may make uo for Wainwright and Tavares making up for Holliday. They're going to be good. It'll be easier dealing with them alone, than dealing with the Reds hitting on all cylinders as well right now.

 

And the Pirates and Brewers probably won't have any good seasons during that time, either.

 

So we tank 3 seasons, then split the division evenly with the Cardinals for the next six.

 

Congratulations, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, you just matched Jim Hendry's term.

 

 

Except the aftermath of the Jim Hendry term was a complete and utter mess. The aftermath of the Theo/Jed era will be a team in a good position to continue success (assuming lessons are learned from the BoSox debacle, but the fault of that probably falls more to Lucchino).

 

Hendry mortgaged our future for the present, Jed/Theo are mortgaging our present for the future.

[KingCubsFan]

I'd argue that teams with lucrative TV deals are now in a class of their own, and the Cubs aren't in it.

 

Neither are any of the other teams in our division. The Cubs have never been the biggest market, but they arguably have the biggest market advantage relative to their division. They have the biggest Market+, so to speak.

The Reds are about to be.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Thats just your doom boner talking. In your heart, you know the Pirates will never have one.

 

OK, point conceded.

 

Except the aftermath of the Jim Hendry term was a complete and utter mess.

 

Yes, and no. The organizational infrastructure was a mess, but I'm not sure how much of that you can put on Hendry, who was not the team president or any such thing.

 

The state of the organizational talent? I think people are underselling it a bit. It wasn't great, but it wan't terrible either.

 

 

Hendry mortgaged our future for the present, Jed/Theo are mortgaging our present for the future.

 

I was kind of hoping for a front office that wouldn't mortgage anything.

[Guest]

I'd love to see someone put together a history of the No. 1 rated farm systems and see how the results turned out.

 

IIRC, BA's #1 system was really highly correlated with a playoff berth within ~2 years. Not a high bar, but interesting that the state of those MLB teams was pretty varied.

 

I can't find where I saw that, but my BA handbooks are next to me.

 

2005: Angels - playoff appearances in 2007-2009

2006: Dodgers - 2008-2009

2007: Rays - 2008, 2010-2011

2008: Rays again

2009: Rangers - 2010-2012

2010: Rays again (I think, I don't have the handbook and that's what google tells me)

[XZero771679666304]

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins.

 

Umm, no. Let's not do that.

 

 

Yes, lets. You win as many games as you can, and put yourself in position to win as much as possible. You can't control the rest.

[nilodnayr]

 

It only "forces our hand" if one is under the bizarre but increasingly prevalent belief that acquiring prospects is the purpose of baseball operations for a MLB franchise.

 

AFAIK, they still only give out rings for winning MLB games, so maybe that should be the goal instead.

 

Yes yes, we understand that you think that a WS championship team can be comprised solely of spending on FAs. Maybe you should stop being a cubs fan and be a dodgers fan. I think everyone would be much happier.

Edited November 2, 2012 by nilodnayr

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd love to see someone put together a history of the No. 1 rated farm systems and see how the results turned out.

 

IIRC, BA's #1 system was really highly correlated with a playoff berth within ~2 years. Not a high bar, but interesting that the state of those MLB teams was pretty varied.

 

I can't find where I saw that, but my BA handbooks are next to me.

 

2005: Angels - playoff appearances in 2007-2009

2006: Dodgers - 2008-2009

2007: Rays - 2008, 2010-2011

2008: Rays again

2009: Rangers - 2010-2012

2010: Rays again (I think, I don't have the handbook and that's what google tells me)

 

And the Cubs were No. 1 sometime before the 2003-2004/2007-2008 run, too.

 

Good start.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins.

 

Umm, no. Let's not do that.

 

 

Yes, lets. You win as many games as you can, and put yourself in position to win as much as possible. You can't control the rest.

 

OK. But now if playoff appearances don't matter but only average wins do, they've put themselves in one heck of a hole to start out.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes yes, we understand that you think that a WS championship team can be comprised solely of spending on FAs. Maybe you should stop being a cubs fan and be a dodgers fan. I think everyone would be much happier.

 

The Epstein Era: Love it or leave it!

[SouthSideRyan]

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins.

 

Umm, no. Let's not do that.

 

 

Yes, lets. You win as many games as you can, and put yourself in position to win as much as possible. You can't control the rest.

 

Except for when you lose as many games as you can.

[nilodnayr]

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins.

 

Umm, no. Let's not do that.

 

 

Yes, lets. You win as many games as you can, and put yourself in position to win as much as possible. You can't control the rest.

 

Except for when you lose as many games as you can.

 

Worked for the Rays.

[SouthSideRyan]

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins.

 

Umm, no. Let's not do that.

 

 

Yes, lets. You win as many games as you can, and put yourself in position to win as much as possible. You can't control the rest.

 

Except for when you lose as many games as you can.

 

Worked for the Rays.

 

And all it took was 10 years of 90+ losses!

[Tryptamine]

Yes yes, we understand that you think that a WS championship team can be comprised solely of spending on FAs. Maybe you should stop being a cubs fan and be a dodgers fan. I think everyone would be much happier.

 

The Epstein Era: Love it or leave it!

 

No one is saying you can't criticize things, but when you [expletive] all over every single thing he does it gets old.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No one is saying you can't criticize things, but when you [expletive] all over every single thing he does it gets old.

 

Yeah. I don't do that.

[XZero771679666304]

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins.

 

Umm, no. Let's not do that.

 

 

Yes, lets. You win as many games as you can, and put yourself in position to win as much as possible. You can't control the rest.

 

Except for when you lose as many games as you can.

 

Yes, because Theo and Jed have intentionally been trying to do that.

 

But that's not the argument we were having, it was about those theoretical 6-7 years, and using playoff appearances vs. annual wins as the measuring stick for success.

 

If you had 2 playoff appearances in those seven years but were bad or abysmal in four of them, would that be as successful as 2 playoff appearances with at least 90 wins in the other five seasons? Of course not. This isn't about contriving a context for the purpose of argument, it's the entire point of their approach, and nearly the entire basis for criticism of Hendry. You keep your team around contention with regularity if you want to optimize your chances.

 

Unfortunately, given what was left over from Hendry's regime and given the new CBA, the most expeditious way to get there is the way it is being done.

[SouthSideRyan]

Why do the first 3-4 seasons not count in this evaluation?

[XZero771679666304]

Why do the first 3-4 seasons not count in this evaluation?

 

They do, but Kyle and I were debating how to measure success once you reach the point of being competitive.

 

And for the record, I can reconcile with two lost seasons (because I think they were lost anyway), beyond that I'm not going to be so forgiving.

[sneakypower]

we were primed for contention this season on the backs of Marlon Byrd, Blake DeWitt, Randy Wells and Carlos Zambrano before Theo came and fucked it all up

[Backtobanks]

True, but they're currently in as good or better shape than they were at any point during that time. An extension to Wainwright that goes bad gurts them. Molina's deal will too eventually. Holliday as well. But they have lots of pitching on the way that may make uo for Wainwright and Tavares making up for Holliday. They're going to be good. It'll be easier dealing with them alone, than dealing with the Reds hitting on all cylinders as well right now.

 

And the Pirates and Brewers probably won't have any good seasons during that time, either.

 

So we tank 3 seasons, then split the division evenly with the Cardinals for the next six.

 

Congratulations, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, you just matched Jim Hendry's term.

 

The Brewers are likely to decline. They have holes now, and purged their system over the past 4 years so they don't have the means to fill them.

 

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins. If the Cubs win 90-95+ games each year for 6-7 consecutive years, that's success. If it leads to only 2-3 playoff appearances in that span, that'd still be a much more successful run than the one Hendry had. You can't control what other teams do, but if you're consistently winning 90+, you're getting it done. Hendry did not do this.

 

First, I find it inconceivable that you are going to win 90+ games consistently for 6-7 years and only make the playoffs 2-3 times in that span. That being said, Theo and Co. were brought in to get us to the World Series and hopefully win it, so I would consider winning teams that don't make the playoffs as a failure after our "rebuild" is complete.

[SouthSideRyan]

we were primed for contention this season on the backs of Marlon Byrd, Blake DeWitt, Randy Wells and Carlos Zambrano before Theo came and [expletive] it all up

 

That's all I've been saying

[XZero771679666304]

True, but they're currently in as good or better shape than they were at any point during that time. An extension to Wainwright that goes bad gurts them. Molina's deal will too eventually. Holliday as well. But they have lots of pitching on the way that may make uo for Wainwright and Tavares making up for Holliday. They're going to be good. It'll be easier dealing with them alone, than dealing with the Reds hitting on all cylinders as well right now.

 

And the Pirates and Brewers probably won't have any good seasons during that time, either.

 

So we tank 3 seasons, then split the division evenly with the Cardinals for the next six.

 

Congratulations, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, you just matched Jim Hendry's term.

 

The Brewers are likely to decline. They have holes now, and purged their system over the past 4 years so they don't have the means to fill them.

 

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins. If the Cubs win 90-95+ games each year for 6-7 consecutive years, that's success. If it leads to only 2-3 playoff appearances in that span, that'd still be a much more successful run than the one Hendry had. You can't control what other teams do, but if you're consistently winning 90+, you're getting it done. Hendry did not do this.

 

First, I find it inconceivable that you are going to win 90+ games consistently for 6-7 years and only make the playoffs 2-3 times in that span. That being said, Theo and Co. were brought in to get us to the World Series and hopefully win it, so I would consider winning teams that don't make the playoffs as a failure after our "rebuild" is complete.

 

It's not inconceivable, just highly unlikely. It was a bit of a counter to davell saying 6-7 playoff appearances. 90+ wins is a fairly successful season, but no guarantee of a playoff appearance. In such a scenario, under the current setup, I'd say a team would get at least 4-5 playoff berths.

 

But a winning season would have to be considered more successful than an abysmal one 100% of the time. Baseball is a fickle sport, and playoff caliber seasons aren't always going to get you into the playoffs. What you have to aim for is to have playoff caliber seasons every year, to maximize your chances. This is where Hendry failed miserably, largely because his management didn't provide contingencies for when "plan A' failed. There were no backups waiting in the minors, everything was free agency, gambles, gambits and guesswork, especially after his trade ammo in the minors went dry.

[Sammys Boombox]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/11/fa-face-with-the-tv-booty/

 

“The macroeconomics of baseball are interesting right now with some of these cable deals,” general manager Jed Hoyer said last week. “It’s created some very big markets from what used to be just kind of large markets, and it’s propped up some teams that used to flood the trade market and used to flood the free-agent market. Some of those teams are now holding on to their own players.”

 

“It’s hard to predict exactly what we’re going to be staring at in 2015,” Hoyer said. “But what we’re looking at right now, it is a change in what the dynamic has been over the last five to seven years.

 

“It’s certainly an interesting time. The macroeconomics of baseball are at an interesting point.”

 

I want to know what the context of the conversation was that lead him to discuss the FA market in 2015.