2012 Draft Day Thread + Cubs Picks Discussion

[davell]

I liked Almora a lot, let me reiterate that. But in this EXACT scenario, if we had gotten Fried for a mill less, I think it could have gotten us one other pretty solid talent as well, making the draft class a bit better in my mind. Again, not saying I don't like Almora more than Fried. But Fried, plus another Underwood type vs. Almora? I'd lean towards the two guys myself.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I liked Almora a lot, let me reiterate that. But in this EXACT scenario, if we had gotten Fried for a mill less, I think it could have gotten us one other pretty solid talent as well, making the draft class a bit better in my mind. Again, not saying I don't like Almora more than Fried. But Fried, plus another Underwood type vs. Almora? I'd lean towards the two guys myself.

 

Well, that's the philosophical difference I was trying to emphasize. Quantity almost never trumps quality in my book.

[Guest]

I liked Almora a lot, let me reiterate that. But in this EXACT scenario, if we had gotten Fried for a mill less, I think it could have gotten us one other pretty solid talent as well, making the draft class a bit better in my mind. Again, not saying I don't like Almora more than Fried. But Fried, plus another Underwood type vs. Almora? I'd lean towards the two guys myself.

 

This is not comparable to Correa vs. Appel/Buxton since Houston didn't appear to have a favorite and so they took the cheapest. When you've found a clear BPA (Almora in this case), you have to go with him as long as the cost doesn't sink you.

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't think it's always that cut and dried. It's a balance that the FO has to strike. There are certainly situations in which it would make more sense to take the second BPA where the talent difference isn't so great and the cost difference is significant.

[craig]

Good points all. All else equal, to save money and be able to buy an extra good prospect would be preferable. And even if two guys aren't exactly equal, if the difference is modest enough, the money saved with the cheaper guy might buy you an extra prospect whose value more than makes up the difference.

 

But I agree with the quality-over-quantity preference. And I don't get the idea that this was close in the Cubs minds. I get the sense they really liked Almora, a lot, and that Almora/Fried weren't that close.

 

I feel that way myself, actually. For a top-six pick, you should be a pretty great pitching prospect in order to be selected ahead of a very good position prospect that your scouts really believe in. A player who is what you think he is, he can be that for a long time. Even if a pitcher is what you think he is, how long is he likely to stay that way? Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood, those were great places to pick pitchers. But Top-6? Get a really good position player if you can. And if you do go pitching that high, he better either be pretty incredible HS prospect or else be a pretty safe ready-now college stud.

 

I feel that way for next year, too. I know we feel weaker at pitching. So if there's a college stud pitcher who'll be almost a sure thing and ready soon, it makes sense. But even those don't stay studs necessarily (Prior, Mulder, Brownlie, Blasko, Hagerty, Christenson, etc.) I'd still rather take a stud player who might be a franchise guy for twelve years.

 

Question will be whether Almora is really as good as the Cubs seem to think he is.

[davell]

I should say that I was expressing my own opinion. I have zero doubt the Cubs thought of Almora as a guy they were extremely lucky to have fall to them. Feel confident in saying THEY saw a ton of separation between him and Fried or they would have went in a different direction.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

All the usual caveats (he's got some industry connections but isn't a fully accurate Cubs insider), ABTY over at PSD says Almora's deal is done, pending a physical, but the physical won't get done in time to formally announce it before the ASB moratorium

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Almora is done:

 

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA

 

#Cubs agree w/1st-rder Albert Almora on $3.9 mil (pick value=$3.25 mil). Florida HS OF w/lots of tools & polish. #mlbdraft

[davell]

Almora signed. 3.9 mill, per Callis.

[ctcf]

Absolutely awesome to hear. Does anyone still have the link to the video MLB.com did on him pre-draft?

[jersey cubs fan]

So is there anybody intriguing left to be signed and is there any money to sign them?

[Vinestal]

So is there anybody intriguing left to be signed and is there any money to sign them?

Only like 22k left I think

[Guest]

2012 Bonus Pool: $7,933,900

2012 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $8,330,595

2012 Bonus Pool Spending: $8,307,700

2012 Bonus Pool +/-: $373,800 Over Budget

2012 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $22,895 Under Budget

 

That means the Cubs will be paying a tax for their draft signings. The Cubs can not offer any of their remaining picks more than $122,895 without forfeiting 2013 draft picks.

[jersey cubs fan]

2012 Bonus Pool: $7,933,900

2012 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $8,330,595

2012 Bonus Pool Spending: $8,307,700

2012 Bonus Pool +/-: $373,800 Over Budget

2012 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $22,895 Under Budget

 

That means the Cubs will be paying a tax for their draft signings. The Cubs can not offer any of their remaining picks more than $122,895 without forfeiting 2013 draft picks.

 

But they could conceivably sign every one of them for $100,000?

[El Duderino]

holy [expletive], I thought this was going to the wire.

[Guest]

So is there anybody intriguing left to be signed and is there any money to sign them?

 

The remaining unsigned, interesting players are:

 

19th rounder Derek Tomscha

20th rounder Blake Hickman

23rd rounder Jake Drossner

25th rounder Rhett Wiseman

31st rounder Bryan Bonnell

33rd rounder Thomas Pannone

37th rounder Clayton Crum

 

They can sign any of their remaining picks for $100,000. But they can only spend $22,895 more than $100,000 amongst all of the guys they sign going forward.

 

They don't have enough to sign Wiseman or Crum.

[Guest]

2012 Bonus Pool: $7,933,900

2012 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $8,330,595

2012 Bonus Pool Spending: $8,307,700

2012 Bonus Pool +/-: $373,800 Over Budget

2012 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $22,895 Under Budget

 

That means the Cubs will be paying a tax for their draft signings. The Cubs can not offer any of their remaining picks more than $122,895 without forfeiting 2013 draft picks.

 

But they could conceivably sign every one of them for $100,000?

 

Correct.

[bukie]

So that makes Almora (6th pick) thus far the fourth highest bonus player in the draft after Buxton (2nd, $6M), Correa (1st, $4.8M), and Zunino (3rd, $4M).

 

Zimmer (5th) and Fried (7th) each signed for $3M, and Gausman (4th) and Appel (8th) are as yet unsigned.

[Post Count Padder]

Fantastic news. Was hoping it wouldn't go down to the wire.

[davell]

Based on tweets from the guys that are left, I'd say the odds of us signing anyone else is extremely slim. If we DO get anyone else, my guess is it'd be Pannone, with a very outside chance of Bonnell.

[Tryptamine]

Pretty bummed out by Almora taking up just about every last cent. I was really hopeful they would land at least one more difficult sign.

[Clem Fandango]

Zimmer (5th) and Fried (7th) each signed for $3M, and Gausman (4th) and Appel (8th) are as yet unsigned.

 

On that note...

 

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Mark Appel is leaning toward turning down a $3.8 million offer by the Pirates and returning to Stanford.

Appel, a Scott Boras client, was projected in just about every mock draft to go first overall. He reportedly turned down a $6 million offer by the Astros, so rejecting an offer for half as much (slot for the eighth pick is roughly $3 million) has always been seen as a decent possibility. The Pirates are handcuffed by the new CBA agreement. On draft day, they were handcuffed by the idea of draft value. If Pittsburgh violates their draft pool allocation, it will result in forfeiture of their 2013 first-round pick. Appel -- or, more accurately, the Pirates -- could be the first casualty of the new system.

[bukie]

There are as of now 6 first rounders still unsigned:

4. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Orioles

8. Mark Appel, RHP, Pirates

9. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Marlins

16. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Nationals

25. Richie Shaffer, IF, Rays

30. Ty Hensley, RHP, Yankees

[jersey cubs fan]

Considering they currently stand to draft at the end of the 1st round, I think Pittsburgh has to be more willing to make the splash. There's a real interest in that team and momentum behind their success year-to-date.

[Guest]

I would be stunned if Appel returns to Stanford. I expect he'll pitch in an independent league, a la Luke Hochevar.