2013 Draft Discussion

[imb]

Maybe I'm confused then. Is the consensus that they could have taken Buxton 1.1 and still paid for McCullers?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe I'm confused then. Is the consensus that they could have taken Buxton 1.1 and still paid for McCullers?

 

No. They took a lesser prospect with the first pick so they could sign a guy like McCullers later. You aren't confused.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I really don't want to continue this, but Buxton was not above Correa on every evaluator's list. I know Goldstein had Correa as the #1 overall prospect.

[toonsterwu]

That's fine, but I think it's kind of silly to say the Astros had to talk themselves into taking Correa.

 

No, it's not. The fact that they got a good prospect doesn't change the fact that they got a lesser prospect.

 

I'm almost certain that Correa was the 2nd ranked prospect in the final draft list of a publication.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/prospects-and-draft-chat-with-jim-callis-4/

 

From the recent Jim Callis chat:

 

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): Knowing the draft board as well as you do, is Colin Moran a reach at 1-1 or 1-2? Or is he similar to Carlos Correa as a top guy who could be had at a discount because he could fall to 1-7 or lower?

 

Jim Callis: Correa was No. 2 in our final rankings last year, a legitimate No. 1 overall choice who didn’t have as much leverage as most guys in that situation. To me, Moran is a reach at No. 1. I love the bat, but is there another above-average tool? He’s a very good hitter with average power and fringy defensive skills at third base. I could see taking him at No. 5, but I wouldn’t consider him over Gray, Appel or Bryant. I don’t really think the Astros would take him at No. 1, but we’ll see. They can save money without him because no one in this draft is a $7.9 million player. I don’t see the top pick landing more than $6 million or maybe $6.5 million.

 

I think Correa was a perfectly justifiable pick. You can argue Buxton was the better prospect, but an up the middle guy, projected to stay at shortstop, with power? He's also done very well for himself while injured. I don't love Correa, and he didn't make sense for the Cubs, but it was a fine pick, IMO.

[toonsterwu]

I really don't want to continue this, but Buxton was not above Correa on every evaluator's list. I know Goldstein had Correa as the #1 overall prospect.

 

Yup, here's the link for that, as all BP stuff a year old is free now.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17173

[toonsterwu]

Bless the Astros for effectively giving us the No. 1 pick.

 

Before we get too giddy about things ... as much as I am personally lukewarm about Moran, there's actually quite a bit to like. He's a good defensive third baseman. He should hit for a solid average, and the potential is there for more power to come. If you don't think Kris Bryant can stick at third, and you believe Moran will add some more power, then the argument for Moran over Bryant isn't that hard. Then, the question becomes whether or not you gamble on a position player over those two arms, and whether or not the savings you gain, plus the talent you add, is enough to overcome said difference.

 

Don't get me wrong - I think Gray is the top guy in the draft, and Appel is 2nd, but there's a very good argument that taking the position player is worth it. It's not as if Gray and Appel don't have their flaws. I'm big on Gray, and he's my preferred guy, but he needs work. I guess, my point is, if the Astros do go Moran, there is an argument for it.

 

Sure. It's not a Hayden-Simpson-level off-board pick. You could talk yourself into liking Correa last year, too, and they did. But I'm still giddy over getting Buxton if I'm the Twins.

 

Sure ... but as you note, McCullers (and uh ... Ruiz?) have to be in the discussion as well. So, Correa/McCullers and Co. vs. Buxton (and I don't recall them being in the discussion for Buxton ... I thought it was Appel or Correa and Co)? I would take Correa and Co. over Buxton almost everytime.

 

In this case, what if they end up with Moran and ... to pick a name out of a hat for now, Manaea? We won't have the answer for another 4-5 years, but that very well could be a much preferable option.

 

I'm not debating individual talents. As noted, I think Gray is the top guy in the draft. But Moran, as you note, isn't that far off the board ... so Moran and Co. vs. Gray or Appel is a discussion that I can understand some folks leaning for the former.

 

In the Cubs case, if there's an elite, or close to elite arm, I think they need to go that way.

[ScrubMD]

[expletive], Almora is out-OPS'ing Correa by .450 points. We win.

[Guest]

i bet appel is so pissed the astros got the number 1 pick again

[Guest]

Comment from Ed: Are you hearing who the Cubs may be on for their second round pick? Any chance Jon Denney falls to them there?

 

Kiley McDaniel: I know they love Eric Jagielo, but he won't get there. I know they like Tampa-area RHP Nick Eicholz, but he's more of a 3rd-4th round fit, same for Louisville RHP Jeff Thompson who fits even late. Don't have a concrete name that isn't more than an educated guess for you at the 2nd round pick.

 

Comment from Ed: What is a realistic time frame for Gray to be in a major league rotation? 2015? Thanks.

 

Kiley McDaniel: Send him out to Hi-A/AA in 2014 and possibly ready at some point in 2015...that's fair.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel said the following players have set an asking price for at least $1.5 million: C Chris Okey (Clemson commit), LHP Matt Krook (Oregon commit), RHP Connor Jones (Virginia commit), RHP Kyle Serrano (Tennessee commit; dad is head coach of the Volunteers), OF Ryan Boldt (Nebraska commit) and RHP Karsten Whitson (currently at Florida).

[Cubswin11]

Whitson hasn't come back to pitch since the injury earlier in the season, right?

[Guest]

Whitson hasn't come back to pitch since the injury earlier in the season, right?

 

Correct. There is hope that he'll be able to throw in July, right before the signing deadline.

[Guest]

Kris Bryant and USD play Cal Poly San Luis Obispo in the LA regional at 4 pm CT today on ESPN3.

 

Jonathan Gray will start today at noon CT in the Blacksburg regional against Coastal Carolina on ESPN3.

[toonsterwu]

Kiley McDaniel said the following players have set an asking price for at least $1.5 million: C Chris Okey (Clemson commit), LHP Matt Krook (Oregon commit), RHP Connor Jones (Virginia commit), RHP Kyle Serrano (Tennessee commit; dad is head coach of the Volunteers), OF Ryan Boldt (Nebraska commit) and RHP Karsten Whitson (currently at Florida).

 

I'm still going to be surprised if Connor Jones signs. Still ... by putting an asking price out there, I guess it raises the possibility as to whether or not a team gambles on his upside high enough. 1.5 puts him around late first ... and he's viewed roughly in that area.

[davell]

My guess is Whitson is a guy that goes in round 11. You'll probably see a couple of teams spend light in rounds 1-10 and leave them a little cushion to sign a few guys that impress them from this point forward. I guess the strategy would be to draft a bunch(10+) guys you know won't be signing for 100K that you see potential in. Then spread out your saved 1-10 money on a group of them or on one big expenditure thats a really tough sign. Out of the group Raisin just mentioned, I'd guess Jones and Serrano(monetary demands and rock solid commitment) both last to round 11 as well. I still think Okey and Boldt go somewhere inside the top 50, Krook is a wildcard. He fell off somewhat after a hot start. If he wants mid-1st money, his performance may not dictate a team taking an early round chance and basically guaranteeing they'll do it.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel said the following players have set an asking price for at least $1.5 million: C Chris Okey (Clemson commit), LHP Matt Krook (Oregon commit), RHP Connor Jones (Virginia commit), RHP Kyle Serrano (Tennessee commit; dad is head coach of the Volunteers), OF Ryan Boldt (Nebraska commit) and RHP Karsten Whitson (currently at Florida).

 

I'm still going to be surprised if Connor Jones signs. Still ... by putting an asking price out there, I guess it raises the possibility as to whether or not a team gambles on his upside high enough. 1.5 puts him around late first ... and he's viewed roughly in that area.

 

McDaniel said "at least" $1.5. I'd bet Jones is one of the guys asking for more than $1.5 (Whitson too).

[Guest]

My guess is Whitson is a guy that goes in round 11. You'll probably see a couple of teams spend light in rounds 1-10 and leave them a little cushion to sign a few guys that impress them from this point forward. I guess the strategy would be to draft a bunch(10+) guys you know won't be signing for 100K that you see potential in. Then spread out your saved 1-10 money on a group of them or on one big expenditure thats a really tough sign. Out of the group Raisin just mentioned, I'd guess Jones and Serrano(monetary demands and rock solid commitment) both last to round 11 as well. I still think Okey and Boldt go somewhere inside the top 50, Krook is a wildcard. He fell off somewhat after a hot start. If he wants mid-1st money, his performance may not dictate a team taking an early round chance and basically guaranteeing they'll do it.

 

Yeah, it would be incredibly dumb to take Whitson before the 11th round.

[Guest]

Ask BA[/url]"]Assuming the Cubs have their choice of college righthanders Mark Appel (Stanford) or Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma), who do you think they will take?

 

Mike Loszach

Lisle, Ill.

 

Given their stuff and performance and how hard it is to find frontline starting pitching, Appel and Gray are the top two prospects in the 2013 draft. Yet as I mentioned in Mock Draft v2.0 on Friday, there’s increased chatter that the Astros might use the No. 1 overall pick on a position player, presumably San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran.

 

If that does happen, I honestly don’t know who the Cubs would go at No. 2. I’m also not sure which way Houston is leaning if it does take a pitcher, and I keep going back and forth on which pitcher I prefer.

 

Appel has a longer track record of success and a deeper repertoire, but Gray has more electric stuff when they’re both at their best. Some scouts question Appel’s makeup, though that’s mainly the result of him turning down $3.8 million from the Pirates last year. There’s also a sense that it might be a little easier to cut a deal with Gray than Appel.

 

Chicago has narrowed its field to four players: Appel and Gray, as well as Bryant or Moran. Cubs president Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer, senior vice president for scouting and player development Jason McLeod and scouting director Jaron Madison were on hand to see the most recent starts by both pitchers, and both were very sharp. Gray threw a three-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts and no walks against Baylor in the first round of the Big 12 Conference tournament on Thursday, while Appel fanned nine and allowed just three hits in eight innings while beating UCLA on Friday.

 

My sources tell me Chicago hasn’t made a decision yet. Appel’s college career is over, while Gray will pitch again against Coastal Carolina on Friday in the Virginia Tech regional. I tend to use upside to decide close calls, so if it were my call I’d go with Gray.

[Guest]

I'm honestly incredibly torn on what I want them to do if the Astros go with Moran

[Cubswin11]

Ask BA[/url]"]

 

Some scouts question Appel’s makeup, though that’s mainly the result of him turning down $3.8 million from the Pirates last year.

Those scouts should be fired if that's the logic for making that statement (guessing they might be butt hurt Pirates scouts). It's not like Appel turned down their offer because he wanted to take a year off spending his time doing blow and throwing change at strippers. He turned it down because he thought he was worth more and wanted to prove it, which he did. If anything it points to a strong character makeup and a guy who is striving to be the best.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Cubswin11

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Would Brett Jackson for one of the 30s picks be fair value?

[Cubswin11]

Would Brett Jackson for one of the 30s picks be fair value?

I'd say it's pretty close. Can picks be traded while the draft is happening or do they need to be done leading up to the draft?

 

I trust that it's fair value if you can trade during the draft and a scenario plays out that the FO likes a guy who has dropped to the 30's (Manae, Austin Wilson, Wahl, Connor Jones, Okey, etc.) and it takes Jackson to get there.

 

If it's just before the draft and you are hoping certain guys fall then you get there and nobody is there that you rate is worthy when the pick comes up, then maybe slightly below value? But also it gets you a higher pool.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Ask BA[/url]"]

 

Some scouts question Appel’s makeup, though that’s mainly the result of him turning down $3.8 million from the Pirates last year.

Those scouts should be fired if that's the logic for making that statement (guessing they might be butt hurt Pirates scouts). It's not like Appel turned down their offer because he wanted to take a year off spending his time doing blow and throwing change at strippers. He turned it down because he thought he was worth more and wanted to prove it, which he did. If anything it points to a strong character makeup and a guy who is striving to be the best.

Agreed. He also finished (or will imminently finish) his degree at Stanford too, if I'm not mistaken.

[davell]

Would Brett Jackson for one of the 30s picks be fair value?

 

I've wondered that myself. Maybe to a team that doesn't spend big money on the draft is where I usually end up at.

[CubInOK]

Gray gave up 2 runs in the 1st, but OU also committed 2 errors. Only 1 ER.