2013 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Appel - 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HBP. No idea on the pitch count. When UCLA was threatening in the top of the 8th, Stanford had a lefty up in the pen. I imagine they'll give Appel every opportunity to finish the game, the Stanford pen just isn't very good.

 

UCLA's offense has been frustratingly helpless once they get a runner in scoring position against Appel.

 

ETA: Well, they pulled Appel for the 9th.

[RammyFanny]

Appel - 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HBP. No idea on the pitch count. When UCLA was threatening in the top of the 8th, Stanford had a lefty up in the pen. I imagine they'll give Appel every opportunity to finish the game, the Stanford pen just isn't very good.

 

UCLA's offense has been frustratingly helpless once they get a runner in scoring position against Appel.

 

ETA: Well, they pulled Appel for the 9th.

Heard the pitch count was 120 something.

[Guest]

122

[RammyFanny]

USD Toreros ‏@USDToreros 8h

 

Chicago Cubs execs Jed Hoyer and USD Law alum Theo Epstein are at the game today. Kris Bryant heading to the Cubs at #2 in the MLB Draft?

 

Bryant will apparently be on ESPNU tomorrow night. Today he was 1/4 BB, single, and 1/4, BB, HR.

[Guest]

USD Toreros ‏@USDToreros 8h

 

Chicago Cubs execs Jed Hoyer and USD Law alum Theo Epstein are at the game today. Kris Bryant heading to the Cubs at #2 in the MLB Draft?

 

Bryant will apparently be on ESPNU tomorrow night. Today he was 1/4 BB, single, and 1/4, BB, HR.

 

Faced Alex Balog, a possible first rounder next month, and Bryant went 1/3 with a single and an IBB against him.

[Guest]

Probably not too serious since a lot of teams work out multiple players who are possibilities for their first rounder, but...

@NathanRode: Just heard that Astros are working out Frazier & Meadows tomorrow. GM Jeff Luhnow will be there. #mlbdraft

[Guest]

North Carolina (3B Colin Moran) and Virginia Tech (3B Chad Pinder) are on ESPN2. Notre Dame (3B Eric Jagielo) is on ESPNU.

[Guest]

Not surprising but Stanford didn't make the field of 64 and Appel's season is over.

 

Jonathan Gray and Oklahoma are going to the Blacksburg Regional in Virginia Tech as the 2. If Gray starts the first game, he'll face Coastal Carolina.

 

Kris Bryant and San Diego are going to the LA regional at UCLA as the 3 seed. Their first game will be against Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, 4 pm CT on ESPN3.

[davell]

Rock will need to move over, there's a top 10 round C in the draft with the name Sicnarf Loopstok. Unbeatable.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel's newest mock: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1294726.html

 

Pick 1 Houston Astros

RHP Mark Appel Stanford

 

ANALYSIS: I'm not buying all the buzz of momentum for Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray or North Carolina 3B Colin Moran at this pick. I reported on twitter earlier this week that Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and Owner Jim Crane were recently spotted scouting Moran (Luhnow had been in multiple times earlier in the year) and it appears if the Astros want to go cheap at #1 overall to spend their bonus pool elsewhere, that Moran is the pick. The other three real options at #1 (Appel, Gray and San Diego 3B Kris Bryant) all appear to be ticketed for the top three picks ($5-8 million bonus each) unless a club in the top three opts to go cheap or pick one of the next few players (no real reason to believe they will). So none of those three are motivated to give a big discount to entice the Astros and I don't think they will. So some people assume that means Moran is the pick since last year the Astros took the least expensive of the top group of talent in Carlos Correa. The difference is the top of this class isn't generally considered to be three players whereas last year's group was generally considered to have eight. I have Appel as the clear top talent, the many scouts I've spoken with agree and in the case one of the scouts prefer Gray or Bryant, they have to go through a pretty extensive list of conditions and qualifications. This week, I've been hearing the Astros current posture is "exploring every alternative to Appel" and the buzz coming out of Houston matches the deliberate, measured approach they took last season to keep everyone in the dark, maximizing their negotiating leverage with misdirection and hoping one of their targets blinks. I expect some lively internal discussion in the Astros draft meetings the next two weeks that eventually will end up on "we've gotta take the best player here" and realizing there's only one correct answer this year when the price tags are all comparable.

 

Pick 2 Chicago Cubs

RHP Jonathan Gray Oklahoma

 

ANALYSIS:The Cubs are in a tough spot here, as I've heard all spring that Appel is their guy and I don't think he gets to their pick short of some drastic changes to signabilities of a few players. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they would take Gray in this scenario, with Bryant and Frazier still very much in the discussion. A quick-moving power arm for a reloading club that's taken hitters with it's most recent high picks makes the most sense.

 

He has Manaea falling out of the first round, due to signability questions combined with his falling draft stock.

[davell]

I asked Kiley for 2 names outside the 1st we've been connected to and he said Nick Eichholtz, a HS RHP, with some late helium, and RHP Jeff Thompson, of Louisville.

[CubsWin]

ANALYSIS:The Cubs are in a tough spot here, as I've heard all spring that Appel is their guy and I don't think he gets to their pick short of some drastic changes to signabilities of a few players. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they would take Gray in this scenario, with Bryant and Frazier still very much in the discussion. A quick-moving power arm for a reloading club that's taken hitters with it's most recent high picks makes the most sense.

I disagree with his choice of words here. If Houston takes Appel, it may be the worst case scenario for the Cubs (it may not be as we are hearing the front office is fairly evenly split between the two with some guys liking Bryant as well), but it certainly isn't a "tough spot" to be left with the options of Gray or Bryant. Maybe a tough choice, but I would say the Cubs are in a good spot picking second in this draft no matter what happens.

[Guest]

Yeah, I'm happy the Cubs aren't drafting fourth considering there's a pretty clear top three in the draft.

[Rex Buckingham]

If Houston takes one of the other top guys and the Cubs take Appel as would be expected, do you see it as being a good thing that Stanford's season is over? To me, it keeps him from any crazy pitch counts the rest of the way and if he signs early (which wouldn't seem likely but is possible I suppose) he could make a decent number of pro (minor league, obviously) appearances late summer.

[Guest]

I think Appel being done is probably a bit better than if they had made the tournament, simply because he's a more known commodity with more mileage on his arm so every little bit of rest will help.

 

I do think the pitch count stuff is overblown at the college level though. The vast majority of the time guys are throwing on 6 days rest and multiple hitters in every lineup are not a threat requiring maximum effort to get out. When tournament play gets involved I'd be more watchful, and in every case mechanical consistency is the most important thing, but the context for a college pitcher throwing 125 pitches and a MLB starter throwing 125 pitches are very different.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Appel being done is probably a bit better than if they had made the tournament, simply because he's a more known commodity with more mileage on his arm so every little bit of rest will help.

 

I do think the pitch count stuff is overblown at the college level though. The vast majority of the time guys are throwing on 6 days rest and multiple hitters in every lineup are not a threat requiring maximum effort to get out. When tournament play gets involved I'd be more watchful, and in every case mechanical consistency is the most important thing, but the context for a college pitcher throwing 125 pitches and a MLB starter throwing 125 pitches are very different.

 

Not every batter is a threat, but they are using aluminum bats, and what is the comparison between college offense versus MLB offense? In the rah-rah environment of college sports, along with having scouts watch your every move, are these guys really just cruising along with nominal effort against their weaker opponents? You also have an issue where the coaching may not be as good in the "monitoring mechanical consistency" aspect of the game, and they have little-to-no interest in the long-term well-being of those pitchers. The context is different, but not necessarily better.

[Guest]

BA's full top 500 is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

 

The list is non-premium. If you want an individual player's scouting report, let me know and I'll post it.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Here's the big 3:

 

Gray's metamorphosis from a live-armed but chubby high schooler to a potential No. 1 overall choice is reminiscent of Stephen Strasburg's. His stuff calls to mind Gerrit Cole, another top overall pick. Drafted in the 13th round out of an Oklahoma high school in 2010 by the Royals and in the 10th round out of Eastern Oklahoma State JC in 2011 by the Yankees, Gray steadily improved before exploding in his second season with the Sooners. After maxing out at 94 mph in high school, he now works comfortably at 94-97 and can hit 100 mph while looking like he's just playing catch. Gray's fastball also features heavy life. He shows the ability to dial it down to 92-94 in the middle innings before turning it back up toward the end of games, a la Justin Verlander. He has refined his slider into a wipeout pitch with depth and bite, and he can make hitters look silly with an improved changeup that bottoms out at the plate. Gray has firmed up his frame to a solid 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds, and he has his delivery and his pitches more under control than ever. He has maintained a high level of performance all spring, carrying an 8-1, 1.20 record with a 104-16 K-BB ratio and a .166 opponent average through his first 12 starts. If the Astros pass on Gray with the No. 1 selection, it will be an upset if he gets past the Cubs at No. 2.

 

Appel picked up where he left off last year, after he turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates as the eighth overall pick. As a senior, he fine-tuned his stuff and graduated with a degree in management science and engineering. He shows everything scouts look for in a frontline pitcher. He's 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds with a clean delivery, and he is a solid athlete who played basketball in high school. Appel's fastball sits in the mid-90s and gets as high as 98 mph, and he holds his velocity deep into games. His slider is a plus pitch that generates swings and misses with its sharp, late break. Under Stanford pitching coach Rusty Filter--who was Stephen Strasburg's pitching coach at San Diego State--Appel has gotten a little more downhill with his fastball and has improved his changeup as a senior, and it should be at least an average third offering. Appel has improved every year at Stanford and dominated as a senior, and he should move quickly through the minor leagues.

 

Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball's premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant's best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he'll be better than that. Bryant's arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he'll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center.

[Cubswin11]

Would a decent comp for Bryant be Jayson Werth before the injuries?

[sneakypower]

the way he's usually been described has sounded to me like Troy Glaus

[mul21]

the way he's usually been described has sounded to me like Troy Glaus

 

I caught the end of their game the other night and saw him smoke a double up against the wall. I wasn't impressed by his athleticism as he ran the bases. He looks almost awkward running, kind of herky jerky, but that may be because he's very tall and lean. I'm sure he has some filling out to do, but he's built much more like Werth than Glaus right now.

[GammonsPocketTweets]

If the ceiling for Bryant is a pre-injury Weurth, than pass.

[davell]

BA's full top 500 is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

 

The list is non-premium. If you want an individual player's scouting report, let me know and I'll post it.

 

How about Casey Shane and Jonah Wesely. Throw in Jeff Thompson, since Kiley says we're connected to him. Not sure how Eicholtz isn't in their top 500. Thanks a bunch.

[Cubswin11]

BA's full top 500 is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

 

The list is non-premium. If you want an individual player's scouting report, let me know and I'll post it.

How about Aaron Blair, since ABTY had this to say

 

Aaron Blair is the name to look out for at 41... Hearing him attached here from the same source who told me Pierce Johnson last year (which I overlooked due to a couple Royals scouts who were absolutely convinced they (Cubs) were locked in on Weickel- great smoke screen by Cubs scouting department)...

[Guest]

41. Aaron Blair, RHP, Marshall

 

Blair jumps off the page when you look at Marshall's roster, if only because he hails from Las Vegas, 2,000 miles from Huntington, W.Va. He also stands out with a 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame and a fastball that ranges from 88-95 mph with heavy life. He works with a plus changeup that has good fading action and throws a curveball and slider, both of which are inconsistent but could be average pitches. Given his three-quarters arm slot, Blair might be best suited moving forward with the slider. Scouts also love his bulldog mentality on the mound. He was 5-4, 2.36 in 11 starts for the Thundering Herd with 78 strikeouts and 26 walks in 72 innings. Opponents were hitting just .176 against him and he had surrendered only one home run. He is unlikely to get past the second round.

 

152. Jeff Thompson, RHP, Louisville

 

An all-state tight end and defensive lineman as an Indiana high schooler, Thompson drew interest from college football programs but opted to pursue baseball at Louisville. He cuts an imposing figure on the mound at 6-foot-6 and 248 pounds, and he's capable of touching 95 mph with his fastball. He had a 28-inning scoreless streak in March and a 9-1, 1.94 record through 13 starts, but scouts wonder how his package will play at the next level. Thompson sits at 90-92 mph with his heater, but it's straight and his long arms enable hitters to see it well. He abuses college hitters by getting them to chase his solid slider out of the zone, and presumably professional hitters will be more discerning. His changeup is a decent third pitch. Thompson throws strikes and gets good angle to the plate, and a team that sees his fastball and slider as true plus offerings could take him in the third round.

 

239. Casey Shane, RHP, Centennial HS (Burleson, TX)

 

After starring on the showcase circuit last summer and fall, Shane entered 2013 as the No. 2 high school pitching prospect in the Lone Star State, behind fellow Texas A&M recruit Kohl Stewart. But he got out of shape during the winter and added 35 pounds, now carrying 235 on his 6-foot-4 frame. The 92-94 mph fastball than enticed scouts has been more 87-91 mph this spring, though it still features heavy sink. His formerly plus curveball has lost some of its depth, though it remains an effective pitch. He has feel for a changeup and repeats his delivery well, so he could reclaim the potential that drew comparisons to Shelby Miller if he can get back in shape. Shane may wind up doing that with the Aggies, as it's unlikely that he'll go high enough in the draft to sign. One of the younger players in this draft class, he won't turn 18 until August.

 

389. Jonah Wesely, LHP, Tracy HS (CA)

 

Wesely was a fixture on last summer's showcase circuit but was overshadowed by this draft's crop of prep lefthanders. He pitched well in the World Wood Bat Championships in Jupiter, Fla., last fall, but scouts haven't been overwhelmed this spring. While Wesely shows flashes of a four-pitch mix, including a fastball that gets as high as 93 mph and a decent curveball, many scouts still project him as a reliever because of a funky, high-maintenance delivery, below-average command and questionable toughness. Teams will probably be content to see what he looks like after three years at UCLA.