2013 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

I thought the WCC was pretty close to a power conference, but looking at RPI as a proxy they are a bit down the list. In his games against teams like Oregon State, Fullerton, and Michigan his line is pretty much the same though.

[imb]

If it's Appel or Bryant, aren't we really talking about Greinke vs. Alex Gordon? I don't know who I'd take in that instance.

[Guest]

If it's Appel or Bryant, aren't we really talking about Greinke vs. Alex Gordon? I don't know who I'd take in that instance.

Honestly, I'm going to be really happy with any of the guys we are likely to get at this point.

[imb]

If it's Appel or Bryant, aren't we really talking about Greinke vs. Alex Gordon? I don't know who I'd take in that instance.

Honestly, I'm going to be really happy with any of the guys we are likely to get at this point.

 

I know exactly how it will play out for me. I'll settle on one of the top three guys, we'll draft someone else and I'll try to talk myself into it before reading Hoyer and Epstein's quotes, and totally buying in.

[Guest]

If it's Appel or Bryant, aren't we really talking about Greinke vs. Alex Gordon? I don't know who I'd take in that instance.

Honestly, I'm going to be really happy with any of the guys we are likely to get at this point.

 

I know exactly how it will play out for me. I'll settle on one of the top three guys, we'll draft someone else and I'll try to talk myself into it before reading Hoyer and Epstein's quotes, and totally buying in.

Yeah, as intriguing as Frazier is, I just want one of the top three college guys at this point. It would be pretty hard to be talked into anyone outside of Appel, Gray or Bryant.

 

This isn't like last year where I really, really wanted Buxton.

[SABR Gamer]

Here's Top 5 college bats from 2005-2009, and their age 21 statline. A couple of these didn't turn 21 til later in the calendar year than the respective college season, but there aren't any college seniors so I thought it was better for comparison.

 

Alex Gordon - .372/.518/.715, 63/38 BB/K

Jeff Clement - .348/.472/.618, 44/43 BB/K

Ryan Zimmerman - .393/.469/.581, 31/14 BB/K

Ryan Braun - .388/.471/.726, 33/39 BB/K

Evan Longoria - .353/.468/.602, 40/29 BB/K

Matt Wieters - .358/.480/.592, 20/30 BB/K

Buster Posey - .463/.566/.879, 57/29 BB/K

Pedro Alvarez - .317/.424/.593, 28/28 BB/K

Tony Sanchez - .346/.445/.614, 30/40 BB/K

Dustin Ackley - .417/.517/.763, 50/34 BB/K

 

 

Kris Bryant - .346/.506/.880, 56/35 BB/K

 

 

A couple things about that list:

 

- That's a whole lot of hits and only a couple misses.

- My recollection was that Posey was not thought of as a monster pick out of FSU. Those numbers certainly tell a different story, am I crazy?

- Bryant's IsoP is .534. Next highest is Posey at .416, then Ackley at .346.

 

Doesn't Bryant play at a major step down, competition wise, than basically all of those guys?

 

Not sure, but Raisin did mention this:

 

Keep in mind none of those guys used the BBCOR bats that supress offensive numbers like Bryant does.

 

Not sure how the numbers trend in college baseball has gone with the BBCOR bats, but the suppression has really become lessened in the past few years now that bat companies have found a way to make the bats almost as good as before within the guidelines of the BBCOR regulations. The first few years of BBCOR, when the bat makers hadn't had time to mess around with the new regulations, was when the bats were really worse than they used to be. There is still a difference between old bats and BBCOR, but it's not a huge one.

[Tryptamine]

Sorry, but I just can't bite on Bryant. To the best of my knowledge, he hasn't faced even one legit draft prospect this year. Quite frankly I imagine his ceiling as something like a Cincy Adam Dunn type guy. It's a very nice ceiling, but I still think it pales compared to Gray's ceiling and lacks the likelihood of Appel's ceiling. Guarantee me he sticks at 3B and then I'm listening to taking him at #2. Let him put up numbers against legit draft prospects and I'd put him in the discussion too, but until then there's just too many questions.

[Guest]

Here's Top 5 college bats from 2005-2009, and their age 21 statline. A couple of these didn't turn 21 til later in the calendar year than the respective college season, but there aren't any college seniors so I thought it was better for comparison.

 

Alex Gordon - .372/.518/.715, 63/38 BB/K

Jeff Clement - .348/.472/.618, 44/43 BB/K

Ryan Zimmerman - .393/.469/.581, 31/14 BB/K

Ryan Braun - .388/.471/.726, 33/39 BB/K

Evan Longoria - .353/.468/.602, 40/29 BB/K

Matt Wieters - .358/.480/.592, 20/30 BB/K

Buster Posey - .463/.566/.879, 57/29 BB/K

Pedro Alvarez - .317/.424/.593, 28/28 BB/K

Tony Sanchez - .346/.445/.614, 30/40 BB/K

Dustin Ackley - .417/.517/.763, 50/34 BB/K

 

 

Kris Bryant - .346/.506/.880, 56/35 BB/K

 

 

A couple things about that list:

 

- That's a whole lot of hits and only a couple misses.

- My recollection was that Posey was not thought of as a monster pick out of FSU. Those numbers certainly tell a different story, am I crazy?

- Bryant's IsoP is .534. Next highest is Posey at .416, then Ackley at .346.

 

Doesn't Bryant play at a major step down, competition wise, than basically all of those guys?

 

Yeah - all of them besides Longoria played in BCS programs. Not sure how good the WCC was when Longoria was at Long Beach State but there was little question about his talents when he was picked.

[Guest]

Sorry, but I just can't bite on Bryant. To the best of my knowledge, he hasn't faced even one legit draft prospect this year. Quite frankly I imagine his ceiling as something like a Cincy Adam Dunn type guy. It's a very nice ceiling, but I still think it pales compared to Gray's ceiling and lacks the likelihood of Appel's ceiling. Guarantee me he sticks at 3B and then I'm listening to taking him at #2. Let him put up numbers against legit draft prospects and I'd put him in the discussion too, but until then there's just too many questions.

 

He's faced SDSU's Michael Cederoth, a potential top 10 pick next year. He's also faced Gonzaga's Marco Gonzalez, Pepperdine's Scott Frazier and played a full weekend series against Oregon State.

 

The balance of USD's schedule is weak but it's not that bad.

[Guest]

Here's Top 5 college bats from 2005-2009, and their age 21 statline. A couple of these didn't turn 21 til later in the calendar year than the respective college season, but there aren't any college seniors so I thought it was better for comparison.

 

Alex Gordon - .372/.518/.715, 63/38 BB/K

Jeff Clement - .348/.472/.618, 44/43 BB/K

Ryan Zimmerman - .393/.469/.581, 31/14 BB/K

Ryan Braun - .388/.471/.726, 33/39 BB/K

Evan Longoria - .353/.468/.602, 40/29 BB/K

Matt Wieters - .358/.480/.592, 20/30 BB/K

Buster Posey - .463/.566/.879, 57/29 BB/K

Pedro Alvarez - .317/.424/.593, 28/28 BB/K

Tony Sanchez - .346/.445/.614, 30/40 BB/K

Dustin Ackley - .417/.517/.763, 50/34 BB/K

 

 

Kris Bryant - .346/.506/.880, 56/35 BB/K

 

 

A couple things about that list:

 

- That's a whole lot of hits and only a couple misses.

- My recollection was that Posey was not thought of as a monster pick out of FSU. Those numbers certainly tell a different story, am I crazy?

- Bryant's IsoP is .534. Next highest is Posey at .416, then Ackley at .346.

 

Doesn't Bryant play at a major step down, competition wise, than basically all of those guys?

 

Yeah - all of them besides Longoria played in BCS programs. Not sure how good the WCC was when Longoria was at Long Beach State but there was little question about his talents when he was picked.

 

Long Beach is/was in the Big West not the WCC.

[Guest]

Yeah - all of them besides Longoria played in BCS programs. Not sure how good the WCC was when Longoria was at Long Beach State but there was little question about his talents when he was picked.

 

Long Beach is/was in the Big West not the WCC.

 

Crap, I even looked that up and still made that mistake.

 

Point still stands, Longoria wasn't in a BCS conference but was universally considered an elite talent.

[CubsWin]

I will say it again, if Appel goes #1, I want Bryant

I'm starting to lean the same way. Of course, there is the fact that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, but...

[Guest]

Bryant HR #29 vs UC Riverside.

[Cubswin11]

Saw guy post on PSD that Bryant is represented by Boras, fwiw

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Saw guy post on PSD that Bryant is represented by Boras, fwiw

 

So was Almora. So is Appel.

[Cubswin11]

Saw guy post on PSD that Bryant is represented by Boras, fwiw

 

So was Almora. So is Appel.

I know, I was just pointing it out. I meant it more in the sense that I doubt/assume he's a guy the Astros would draft and go the same route with him like Correa last year to save and spend above slot elsewhere. If Bryant would go #1 Boras is at least going to get slot for him.

[RammyFanny]

Somebody a while back asked how many IBB's Bryant had, and I read on a forum (so I can't vouch for accuracy) that it was 18. That would put his BB:K much closer to 1:1 if we subtracted them out.

[Bilbo161]

Saw guy post on PSD that Bryant is represented by Boras, fwiw

 

So was Almora. So is Appel.

I know, I was just pointing it out. I meant it more in the sense that I doubt/assume he's a guy the Astros would draft and go the same route with him like Correa last year to save and spend above slot elsewhere. If Bryant would go #1 Boras is at least going to get slot for him.

Boras may keep the Astros away but I don't thing Theo and Co. Have a problem working with him.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

The only thing annoying about Boras is that you always have to wait until the deadline for the guy to sign. Even if there's no chance he won't sign.

[davell]

Pretty slippery slope Boras has to navigate thru with 2 of the top 3 guys. You know Houston wants to know what it'd take to sign both of them. Same with us. Are their prices different? If you see Houston take Appel, for instance, at slot, but WOULD have taken Bryant at a mill under slot, the the Cubs take Gray, it leaves the Rockies with plenty of leverage on Bryant, or he could fall further and lose more money. Unless his guys go 1-2, I think one or the other could get screwed here. Just seems like a conflict of interest to represent both.

[RammyFanny]

#30

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

@aaronfitt 44m

 

Kris Bryant just blasted his 30th home run of the year at UC Irvine (a graveyard, by the way). Ties Victor Roache's BBCOR record. #mlbdraft

[RammyFanny]

Bryant's 1-4 so far tonight, but it sounds like 2 of his outs were bullets to the warning track.

[Guest]

Video here: http://twitter.yfrog.com/jwml3uiwzatawxhpgmqqvunkz?sa=0

[Guest]

Just an FYI, Jed Hoyer drafted AJ Vanegas back in 2010. Obviously he didn't sign.