2013 Draft Discussion

[Cubswin11]

Hoyer told Bowden they've had people at every Appel and Gray start this year. Also said they've expanded their consideration past those two recently.

Could just be bluffing, but I'd assume this means Bryant.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They wouldn't be doing their due diligence if they didn't scout the crud out of the top 5 or 6 guys, at the very least.

 

If Appel goes to the Astros, and we found someone we liked more than Gray, I'd be pretty happy. I hate helium pitchers. It's like a double-whammy of untrustworthiness in a prospect. If the draft had been six months ago, Gray could have been Manaea, who is now throwing mid-80s.

[Cubswin11]

They wouldn't be doing their due diligence if they didn't scout the crud out of the top 5 or 6 guys, at the very least.

 

If Appel goes to the Astros, and we found someone we liked more than Gray, I'd be pretty happy. I hate helium pitchers. It's like a double-whammy of untrustworthiness in a prospect. If the draft had been six months ago, Gray could have been Manaea, who is now throwing mid-80s.

I agree on both parts. If Appel goes #1 I am leaning towards Bryant over Gray at #2 for us.

[davell]

From what I've read, Gray has excellent makeup. Which would lend to think he'd keep himself in his current physical condition. Which is why he's showing so much stamina in his starts this year anyway. Just a hunch(and not trying to start anything) but I have a feeling Gray is our top guy and its Appel that has us looking at Bryant and Moran.(who Hoyer called the 2 best bats)

[Guest]

Kris Bryant with 2 home runs today, but it was against UNLV.

[RammyFanny]

Does anyone think we should be reading into Bryant's "low" average of .333 (after a 3-5 day), or is it pretty much a product of him not getting much to hit and always being pitched around? Wish we could find some BABIP info on him, but I doubt it. It's obviously not like the rest of his slash line is lacking of course.

[Hrubes20]

Does anyone think we should be reading into Bryant's "low" average of .333 (after a 3-5 day), or is it pretty much a product of him not getting much to hit and always being pitched around? Wish we could find some BABIP info on him, but I doubt it. It's obviously not like the rest of his slash line is lacking of course.

 

BABIP is fairly simple to calculate, but I'm assuming you are talking about his LD% and such.

 

His BABIP is currently sitting at .280. I didn't realize it before, but dang near half of his hits this season have been HRs (25 of 58). That would explain the absurd ISO of .518. Yes, ISO of .518, not SLG%.

[Guest]

LSU (2014's Aaron Nola) at Texas A&M will be on ESPNU Thursday at 8 pm CT.

 

Jonathan Gray will be pitching on ESPNU Friday at 7 pm CT vs Oklahoma State.

 

North Carolina's whole weekend series will be available - Friday and Saturday on ESPN3, Sunday on ESPNU.

[Tryptamine]

Does anyone think we should be reading into Bryant's "low" average of .333 (after a 3-5 day), or is it pretty much a product of him not getting much to hit and always being pitched around? Wish we could find some BABIP info on him, but I doubt it. It's obviously not like the rest of his slash line is lacking of course.

 

It's things like this that just keep me from being all that interested in him. The power numbers look great and it's nice to see he takes walks, but the other aspects are a bit lackluster.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Sorry, there's no way in hell I could get behind taking Bryant, unless Appel or Gray's elbows disintegrate.

[Guest]

Where would Bryant, Frazier and Meadows rank compared to the top hitters in the 2011 and 2012 drafts?

 

Ask BA[/url]"]Bryant, Frazier and Meadows are the three best position prospects in this year’s draft crop. We’re still playing with the rankings, but they likely will be 3-4-5 in that order when we post our Top 100 Draft Prospects list on Friday. Bryant has 23 homers this spring, six more than any other player in NCAA Division I. Frazier and Meadows play for rival high schools in Loganville, Ga., with the former displaying a more electric bat and the latter having better all-around tools.

 

A year ago, all three of them would have ranked behind high school position players Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, the top two players in BA’s final rankings and the top two picks in the draft. Mike Zunino, the No. 3 selection, also would go ahead of this year’s top three with his all-star potential at catcher.

 

Bryant, Frazier and Meadows would have ranked along the fourth-best position player from 2012: Albert Almora, who doesn’t have the same offensive ceiling but has a higher floor as well as Gold Glove skills in center field. That would put this year’s best position players in the 8-11 range a year ago.

 

The 2011 draft was loaded. In this millennium, the only crop more highly regarded on draft day was the 2005 group. Our final rankings again featured a position player (Anthony Rendon) at the top. Bryant, Frazier and Meadows would have fallen in behind Rendon, as well as Bubba Starling. (If we knew Starling’s hittability would be in this much question today, his stock would have taken a hit, but he was more highly regarded at the time).

 

As with Almora in 2012, this year’s big three would have been in the same group with a dazzling up-the-middle defender with a lesser offensive ceiling but a solid floor: Francisco Lindor. In that case, Bryant, Frazier and Meadows would have been in the 7-10 area, which seems odd because the 2011 draft was so much better than 2012.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel's first mock: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1289798.html

 

1 RHP Mark Appel Stanford

 

ANALYSIS: This decision hasn't been made yet and likely won't for another few weeks. Last year, there was a large top group of talent with varying price tags that allowed the Astros to be creative. This year there's a top group of two players: Appel & Gray. Appel has a better frame, arm action, delivery, track record and projectability along with a wider base of skills. Right now they may be comparable prospects, but scouts prefer Appel going forward especially after the adjustments he's made this spring after being disappointed going 8th in last year's draft. With a weaker crop to spend savings later from this pick, Gray will need to come in well below Appel's price tag to get serious consideration here, but he doesn't have the motivation to do that as he'll get paid just fine going second.

 

2 RHP Jonathan Gray Oklahoma

 

ANALYSIS: There is some buzz in the industry that the Cubs are heavy on Appel. This could create a situation where the Cubs could float a full slot or above slot number to Appel to see if they can play the signability game to get him slide to them. Otherwise, the Cubs will be pretty excited to add a power righty that sits in the upper 90's.

 

He had Manaea tumbling to 16 due to his poor velocity last weekend.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I haven't really thought through the logistics of the value of doing it, but blowing the No. 41 pick and telling Appel he'll get $8 million if he convinces the Astros he won't sign and drops to us would be a pretty baller move.

[davell]

I haven't really thought through the logistics of the value of doing it, but blowing the No. 41 pick and telling Appel he'll get $8 million if he convinces the Astros he won't sign and drops to us would be a pretty baller move.

Thats only if you see him as clearly a much, much better option than Gray. Personally, I'll take either and then overslot as much as possible later on.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I haven't really thought through the logistics of the value of doing it, but blowing the No. 41 pick and telling Appel he'll get $8 million if he convinces the Astros he won't sign and drops to us would be a pretty baller move.

Thats only if you see him as clearly a much, much better option than Gray. Personally, I'll take either and then overslot as much as possible later on.

 

Same old argument. If I like Appel even a tiny bit more, I do whatever it takes to get him. Don't care about the Pierce Johnsons of the world when getting the No. 2 overall pick right is at stake.

[davell]

Its a pitcher. And not a Strasburg or Prior type talent either. Two guys very close in talent level. If one is better than the other, its not by much. So what you're saying is you'd rather have a guy with a 53% chance of becoming a 1-2 starter than having a guy with a 49% chance AND another guy with a 21% chance as well? You're taking option A?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Its a pitcher. And not a Strasburg or Prior type talent either. Two guys very close in talent level. If one is better than the other, its not by much. So what you're saying is you'd rather have a guy with a 53% chance of becoming a 1-2 starter than having a guy with a 49% chance AND another guy with a 21% chance as well? You're taking option A?

 

I think 21% is *really* high for a No. 40 pick or whatever it is we have this time around.

[Guest]

And it's not like if we draft Appel that we pass on that pick. The marginal difference in player we'd draft at that spot is not worth betraying your own convictions for the 2nd overall pick.

[davell]

Its a pitcher. And not a Strasburg or Prior type talent either. Two guys very close in talent level. If one is better than the other, its not by much. So what you're saying is you'd rather have a guy with a 53% chance of becoming a 1-2 starter than having a guy with a 49% chance AND another guy with a 21% chance as well? You're taking option A?

 

I think 21% is *really* high for a No. 40 pick or whatever it is we have this time around.

You'll have the shot to draft a guy inside the top 30 though, due to signability.

[davell]

And it's not like if we draft Appel that we pass on that pick. The marginal difference in player we'd draft at that spot is not worth betraying your own convictions for the 2nd overall pick.

Actually, TT, that is basically what he's saying. Spend 8 mill on Appel is the slot value of 2 and 41. Sure, you can draft Buck Farmer(or some other college senior) for hslf of slot and use another pick or two inside the top 10 to take 10k types. This is based on MY opinion that I see little difference between them. But if THEY don't see much of a difference between the two, it makes sense to take whats left to you, instead of going crazy money-wise getting a guy you may see as just a smidge better than the other.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

I think 21% is *really* high for a No. 40 pick or whatever it is we have this time around.

You'll have the shot to draft a guy inside the top 30 though, due to signability.

 

Maybe. That stuff gets overhyped. There's enough pre-draft lists that like 50-60 guys are probably on somebody's top 30 list.

 

The difference between the 25th best player and the 50th best player is pretty tiny.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I have no idea who Buck Farmer is, but please draft him.

[davell]

 

I think 21% is *really* high for a No. 40 pick or whatever it is we have this time around.

You'll have the shot to draft a guy inside the top 30 though, due to signability.

 

Maybe. That stuff gets overhyped. There's enough pre-draft lists that like 50-60 guys are probably on somebody's top 30 list.

 

The difference between the 25th best player and the 50th best player is pretty tiny.

I agree with that. However, you mentioned 8 mill. That basically punts the 41st pick OR punts 77, 108, and 138, or some other combination like that. Yes, drafting outside the top 10 picks is close to a crapshoot. But our group is good enough you don't want to take THAT much flexibility away unless they see a definitive difference between Appel and Gray.

[Redfoot]

LSU (2014's Aaron Nola) at Texas A&M will be on ESPNU Thursday at 8 pm CT.

 

Jonathan Gray will be pitching on ESPNU Friday at 7 pm CT vs Oklahoma State.

 

North Carolina's whole weekend series will be available - Friday and Saturday on ESPN3, Sunday on ESPNU.

It looks like Gray is pitching on Saturday. Damn

[CubInOK]

LSU (2014's Aaron Nola) at Texas A&M will be on ESPNU Thursday at 8 pm CT.

 

Jonathan Gray will be pitching on ESPNU Friday at 7 pm CT vs Oklahoma State.

 

North Carolina's whole weekend series will be available - Friday and Saturday on ESPN3, Sunday on ESPNU.

It looks like Gray is pitching on Saturday. Damn

So much for going to that game.