2013 Draft Discussion

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

A guy I really like for the Cubs' second round pick:

@aaronfitt: In case you were wondering, #USFDons RHP Alex Balog missed this wknd with a nagging groin injury. Expected back for #WCC tourney. #mlbdraft

 

Damn, just missing the r.

[RammyFanny]

Bryant's two homers:

 

 

[Little Slide Rooter]

What level of phenom is Bryant, and is his defense really that bad? Isn't it Theo's philosophy to draft the best available player regardless of position? I'd be all for drafting him, especially if there's any truth to talk of trading for a Ray's pitcher, and then see if we can land another Vizcaino type for Feldman.

[imb]

Bryant hit three homers over the weekend, boosting his total to 28, a school record and nine more than any other player in NCAA Division I. He has outhomered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrelability give him elite power.

[Cubswin11]

Bryant hit three homers over the weekend, boosting his total to 28, a school record and nine more than any other player in NCAA Division I. He has outhomered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrelability give him elite power.

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t282/mystro07/tumblr_lm1tdeOQjY1qbzd8o.gif

 

 

I will say it again, if Appel goes #1, I want Bryant

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Brett (BN) has a nice write-up on Callis's article from yesterday in which he assigned Bryant an 80 power. /Want

[apete6]

Is this getting to a point where it is a Prior (Appel/Gray) vs. Teixiera (Bryant) discussion?

 

I still go with the pitcher, but those hitting numbers (OBP, SLG, K/BB ratio) are mighty impressive.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If Bryant really does have 80 power, then forget Gray and maybe Appel too.

[Guest]

If Bryant really does have 80 power, then forget Gray and maybe Appel too.

 

Gray is an 80 fastball too. We're gonna get someone damn good, regardless.

[davell]

He also gave Gray's FB an 80, along with McPhearson an 80 grade in speed. I think he's way too anxious to give out 80's.

[Guest]

He also gave Gray's FB an 80, along with McPhearson an 80 grade in speed. I think he's way too anxious to give out 80's.

 

Well, if you're going deep into games and throwing triple digits in the late innings (and with command), what more is really needed?

 

 

Don't know anything about McPhearson.

[Guest]

Bryant doesn't have 80 power and Gray doesn't have an 80 fastball. That's ridiculous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He also gave Gray's FB an 80, along with McPhearson an 80 grade in speed. I think he's way too anxious to give out 80's.

 

That's my suspicion as well. *If* the 80 power is legit, then I want. But I doubt that's the consensus number.

[Guest]

Here's what Callis actually said:

 

Evaluators rarely break out the top grade on the 20-80 scouting scale, but I believe there are three tools worthy of an 80 among the top prospects in the 2013 draft. Those three are Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray’s fastball, San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant’s power and Maryland high school outfielder Matt McPhearson’s speed.

 

Gray (No. 1 on our Top 100 Draft Prospects list) has a fastball that’s notable for more than just its velocity, which is plenty notable because he operates at 94-97 mph and reaches 100 as a starter. His heater also has heavy sinking life and he has upgraded his command of the pitch.

 

Bryant’s (No. 3 on our Draft Top 100) power has been apparent for a while. It made him a borderline first-round pick coming out of a Nevada high school in 2010, though his signability scared teams off. We noted in our Preseason All-America coverage that he had the most usable pop in his draft class, but he has found a new level as a junior.

 

Bryant hit three homers over the weekend, boosting his total to 28, a school record and nine more than any other player in NCAA Division I. He has outhomered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrelability give him elite power.

 

McPhearson (he’ll be near the top of our Draft 101-250 Prospects list on Friday) is the fastest player in his draft class, though he has been slowed by a tender hamstring this spring. When healthy, he has been clocked as quick as 6.22 seconds in the 60-yard dash, which earns him comparisons to Michael Bourn and Ben Revere.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ask-ba-which-draft-prospects-have-80-tools/

[Cubswin11]

If Bryant really does have 80 power, then forget Gray and maybe Appel too.

 

Gray is an 80 fastball too. We're gonna get someone damn good, regardless.

I'd take 80 power over an 80 fastball every single time. Especially when the 80 power has the strike zone recognition, bat speed, and discipline that all seem to grade above average attached to it.

 

Side question, is Gray's fastball being rated at an 80 based almost solely on velocity? Does he generate a lot of movement on it? Meaning if he becomes more of a 92-94 MPH guy +/- it falls down to basically an average pitch, say 55-60 on the scale, due to lack of movement as it would become much more hittable?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Side question, is Gray's fastball being rated at an 80 based almost solely on velocity? Does he generate a lot of movement on it? Meaning if he becomes more of a 92-94 MPH guy +/- it falls down to basically an average pitch, say 55-60 on the scale, due to lack of movement as it would become much more hittable?

 

Gray's fastball is supposed to have some late sink and a good plane, so I don't think it's just velocity that gets him the grade (though obviously that's a huge part of it).

[davell]

Where will Gray's FB sit when he's pitching every fifth day instead of once a week? Same applies to Appel obviously.

[Guest]

Here's Top 5 college bats from 2005-2009, and their age 21 statline. A couple of these didn't turn 21 til later in the calendar year than the respective college season, but there aren't any college seniors so I thought it was better for comparison.

 

Alex Gordon - .372/.518/.715, 63/38 BB/K

Jeff Clement - .348/.472/.618, 44/43 BB/K

Ryan Zimmerman - .393/.469/.581, 31/14 BB/K

Ryan Braun - .388/.471/.726, 33/39 BB/K

Evan Longoria - .353/.468/.602, 40/29 BB/K

Matt Wieters - .358/.480/.592, 20/30 BB/K

Buster Posey - .463/.566/.879, 57/29 BB/K

Pedro Alvarez - .317/.424/.593, 28/28 BB/K

Tony Sanchez - .346/.445/.614, 30/40 BB/K

Dustin Ackley - .417/.517/.763, 50/34 BB/K

 

 

Kris Bryant - .346/.506/.880, 56/35 BB/K

 

 

A couple things about that list:

 

- That's a whole lot of hits and only a couple misses.

- My recollection was that Posey was not thought of as a monster pick out of FSU. Those numbers certainly tell a different story, am I crazy?

- Bryant's IsoP is .534. Next highest is Posey at .416, then Ackley at .346.

[Guest]

Posey was in consideration for the top pick overall. He was very well thought of.

 

Keep in mind none of those guys used the BBCOR bats that supress offensive numbers like Bryant does.

[GammonsPocketTweets]

I think I'm on the Bryant train. Theo/Jed have proven they can mold a solid staff out of nothing (Wood, Feldman, Villueaneva) so it would be really hard to pass on a college bat with that potential and such a high floor to boot.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Okay, I said I'd be pissed if they took Bryant a few days ago... Let me just find my backpedaling bike.

[Guest]

I think I'm on the Bryant train. Theo/Jed have proven they can mold a solid staff out of nothing (Wood, Feldman, Villueaneva) so it would be really hard to pass on a college bat with that potential and such a high floor to boot.

 

Call me crazy, but I sort of am buying into this.

 

After seeing TT's list, given the company he keeps, his odds of success seem about as high as you can hope for from a draft pick.

[imb]

Here's Top 5 college bats from 2005-2009, and their age 21 statline. A couple of these didn't turn 21 til later in the calendar year than the respective college season, but there aren't any college seniors so I thought it was better for comparison.

 

Alex Gordon - .372/.518/.715, 63/38 BB/K

Jeff Clement - .348/.472/.618, 44/43 BB/K

Ryan Zimmerman - .393/.469/.581, 31/14 BB/K

Ryan Braun - .388/.471/.726, 33/39 BB/K

Evan Longoria - .353/.468/.602, 40/29 BB/K

Matt Wieters - .358/.480/.592, 20/30 BB/K

Buster Posey - .463/.566/.879, 57/29 BB/K

Pedro Alvarez - .317/.424/.593, 28/28 BB/K

Tony Sanchez - .346/.445/.614, 30/40 BB/K

Dustin Ackley - .417/.517/.763, 50/34 BB/K

 

 

Kris Bryant - .346/.506/.880, 56/35 BB/K

 

 

A couple things about that list:

 

- That's a whole lot of hits and only a couple misses.

- My recollection was that Posey was not thought of as a monster pick out of FSU. Those numbers certainly tell a different story, am I crazy?

- Bryant's IsoP is .534. Next highest is Posey at .416, then Ackley at .346.

 

Doesn't Bryant play at a major step down, competition wise, than basically all of those guys?

[Guest]

Also, FWIW, if you push that criteria back to 2000, you only add two players, Teixeira and Weeks. Push it forward to current day, you add Harper(although he's more a "college" draftee), Christian Colon, and Zunino.

[Guest]

Here's Top 5 college bats from 2005-2009, and their age 21 statline. A couple of these didn't turn 21 til later in the calendar year than the respective college season, but there aren't any college seniors so I thought it was better for comparison.

 

Alex Gordon - .372/.518/.715, 63/38 BB/K

Jeff Clement - .348/.472/.618, 44/43 BB/K

Ryan Zimmerman - .393/.469/.581, 31/14 BB/K

Ryan Braun - .388/.471/.726, 33/39 BB/K

Evan Longoria - .353/.468/.602, 40/29 BB/K

Matt Wieters - .358/.480/.592, 20/30 BB/K

Buster Posey - .463/.566/.879, 57/29 BB/K

Pedro Alvarez - .317/.424/.593, 28/28 BB/K

Tony Sanchez - .346/.445/.614, 30/40 BB/K

Dustin Ackley - .417/.517/.763, 50/34 BB/K

 

 

Kris Bryant - .346/.506/.880, 56/35 BB/K

 

 

A couple things about that list:

 

- That's a whole lot of hits and only a couple misses.

- My recollection was that Posey was not thought of as a monster pick out of FSU. Those numbers certainly tell a different story, am I crazy?

- Bryant's IsoP is .534. Next highest is Posey at .416, then Ackley at .346.

 

Doesn't Bryant play at a major step down, competition wise, than basically all of those guys?

 

Not sure, but Raisin did mention this:

 

Keep in mind none of those guys used the BBCOR bats that supress offensive numbers like Bryant does.