2013 Draft Discussion

[davell]

Thanks Raisin. Sounds like good news for you with Wesely.

 

By the way, Chris Crawford has scouting profiles up for the top 10 on his board.

 

Appel- FB 70/70 SL55/65 CH 65/70 CO/COMM 55/60 MECH 70/70

 

Gray- FB 80/80 SL 65/70 CH 40/50 CO/COMM 45/50 MECH 50/60

 

Bryant- ONBASE 50/55 PO 70/70 GLOVE(3B) 45/45 ARM 55/55 SPEED 40/40

 

Moran- ONBASE 50/60 PO 45/55 GLOVE 45/45 ARM 55/55 SPEED 45/40

 

I really like reading his stuff, so I value his grades. I think I'd value that group in that exact order based on those numbers.

Edited May 29, 2013 by davell

[pitchcs]

BA's full top 500 is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

 

The list is non-premium. If you want an individual player's scouting report, let me know and I'll post it.

How about Aaron Blair, since ABTY had this to say

 

Aaron Blair is the name to look out for at 41... Hearing him attached here from the same source who told me Pierce Johnson last year (which I overlooked due to a couple Royals scouts who were absolutely convinced they (Cubs) were locked in on Weickel- great smoke screen by Cubs scouting department)...

 

And wow does Weickel look bad so far.

[Guest]

Thanks Raison. Sounds like good news for you with Wesely.

 

By the way, Chris Crawford has scouting profiles up for the top 10 on his board.

 

Appel- FB 70/70 SL55/65 CH 65/70 CO/COMM 55/60 MECH 70/70

 

Gray- FB 80/80 SL 65/70 CH 40/50 CO/COMM 45/50 MECH 50/60

 

Bryant- ONBASE 50/55 PO 70/70 GLOVE(3B) 45/45 ARM 55/55 SPEED 40/40

 

Moran- ONBASE 50/60 PO 45/55 GLOVE 45/45 ARM 55/55 SPEED 45/40

 

I really like reading his stuff, so I value his grades. I think I'd value that group in that exact order based on those numbers.

 

This is the first time I've seen Bryant considered as good defensively as Moran.

 

Still don't buy Gray's FB as an 80, even if it is definitely better than Appel's.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

If he can touch 100 and his fastball still has some movement, how else can you get an 80?

[Guest]

If he can touch 100 and his fastball still has some movement, how else can you get an 80?

 

Command and control of the pitch.

[Guest]

BA's full top 500 is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

 

The list is non-premium. If you want an individual player's scouting report, let me know and I'll post it.

How about Aaron Blair, since ABTY had this to say

 

Aaron Blair is the name to look out for at 41... Hearing him attached here from the same source who told me Pierce Johnson last year (which I overlooked due to a couple Royals scouts who were absolutely convinced they (Cubs) were locked in on Weickel- great smoke screen by Cubs scouting department)...

 

Blair is amongst a host of non-BCS college arms I'm very interested in at 41. It's possible none of them will make it to the Cubs' second rounder, but besides Blair, I like Alex Gonzalez (Oral Roberts), Alex Balog (San Francisco), Chris Anderson (Jacksonville) and Andrew Thurman (UC Irvine).

 

Also would love to see what Derek Johnson could do with the talented and inconsistent Scott Frazier (Pepperdine), though it sounds like Frazier is more of a third-fifth rounder.

[Cubswin11]

From ABTY..

 

gaughan333

Ty - any word on what Appel is looking for $ wise?

 

ABTY

He wants 1/2 slot... If he falls to the Rockies, he'll likely hold out until the very last minute tring to get full slot +5...

I assume that means he's looking for 1/2 of slot of the #1 pick?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

From ABTY..

 

gaughan333

Ty - any word on what Appel is looking for $ wise?

 

ABTY

He wants 1/2 slot... If he falls to the Rockies, he'll likely hold out until the very last minute tring to get full slot +5...

I assume that means he's looking for 1/2 of slot of the #1 pick?

 

It means he wants something around the full slot of the 1 or 2 pick. Confusingly typed, but he's not settling for half-slot.

[Cubswin11]

From ABTY..

 

gaughan333

Ty - any word on what Appel is looking for $ wise?

 

ABTY

He wants 1/2 slot... If he falls to the Rockies, he'll likely hold out until the very last minute tring to get full slot +5...

I assume that means he's looking for 1/2 of slot of the #1 pick?

 

It means he wants something around the full slot of the 1 or 2 pick. Confusingly typed, but he's not settling for half-slot.

Gotcha, well, that makes more sense.

[Guest]

Kevin (Jacksonville, AL): Rank the following 6 heading into their respective drafts: Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, and Justin Verlander.

 

Jim Callis: Strasburg, Price, Cole, Verlander, Gray, Appel. As I’ve mentioned in chats and Ask BA and a few radio shows, Gray vs. Appel is a coin flip.

 

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): How much of Jonathan's Gray's value is his ability to throw high 90s? Put another way if the riggors of the professional 5 man rotation puts him sitting in the low 90s, does that significantly alter his projection?

 

Jim Callis: It lowers it, yes, but the heavy life on his fastball and his slider still could give him two devastating pitches. He’s also strong, I don’t foresee a huge dip in velo.

 

Kevin (Jacksonville, AL): What would Kris Bryant have to do to be ranked ahead of Appel and Gray?

 

Jim Callis: Nothing else that he hasn’t already. You could construct an argument that he’s a 35-or-more HR guy in the big leagues, which gives him impact, and that as a position guy he’s a safer bet than the pitchers.

 

Mike (Virginia): Do you expect teams to continue the strategy of reallocating slot bonuses by selecting lower level college seniors in the 5th-10th round range?

 

Jim Callis: Yes, moreso than last year because there are fewer compensation picks to play with. To move money around will take more work.

[Guest]

The draft is a week away.

[KingCubsFan]

Kevin (Jacksonville, AL): Rank the following 6 heading into their respective drafts: Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, and Justin Verlander.

 

Jim Callis: Strasburg, Price, Cole, Verlander, Gray, Appel. As I’ve mentioned in chats and Ask BA and a few radio shows, Gray vs. Appel is a coin flip.

 

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): How much of Jonathan's Gray's value is his ability to throw high 90s? Put another way if the riggors of the professional 5 man rotation puts him sitting in the low 90s, does that significantly alter his projection?

 

Jim Callis: It lowers it, yes, but the heavy life on his fastball and his slider still could give him two devastating pitches. He’s also strong, I don’t foresee a huge dip in velo.

 

Kevin (Jacksonville, AL): What would Kris Bryant have to do to be ranked ahead of Appel and Gray?

 

Jim Callis: Nothing else that he hasn’t already. You could construct an argument that he’s a 35-or-more HR guy in the big leagues, which gives him impact, and that as a position guy he’s a safer bet than the pitchers.

 

Mike (Virginia): Do you expect teams to continue the strategy of reallocating slot bonuses by selecting lower level college seniors in the 5th-10th round range?

 

Jim Callis: Yes, moreso than last year because there are fewer compensation picks to play with. To move money around will take more work.

I'd be interested to see if he would have ranked Prior ahead of Strasburg.

[Guest]

Can someone post the top two in Keith Law's new mock?

 

http://m.espn.go.com/mlb/story?storyId=9322119&src=desktop

[CarolinaCubFan]

Can someone post the top two in Keith Law's new mock?

 

http://m.espn.go.com/mlb/story?storyId=9322119&src=desktop

 

 

1

 

Colin Moran

 

POS: 3B B/T: R/R HT: 6-3 WT: 215 School: North Carolina

 

Analysis: I don't think the Astros will make a formal decision on this pick until Thursday, but the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it.

 

The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.2 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.

 

They could take Jonathan Gray but won't get as much of a discount if they do. They're not on Kris Bryant or Clint Frazier, and Mark Appel doesn't seem to be one of their top two options.

 

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO

 

2

 

Mark Appel

 

POS: RHP HT: 6-5 WT: 215 School: Stanford

 

Analysis: Appel or Gray. I've heard Theo Epstein loves Gray, but overall the Cubs have a real internal debate between the two options. Without a clear inclination toward either guy, I've assigned them the player I think is better.

 

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO

 

3

 

Kris Bryant

 

POS: 3B/OF B/T: R/R HT: 6-5 WT: 215 School: San Diego

 

Analysis: They've been linked to Bryant all spring, and the industry discussion has had them on hitters. But would they take Gray if he were here? I can't see Gray falling far, with a floor at No. 6. (No way does Miami scouting director Stan Meek, an Oklahoma native who played at OU, pass on a Sooner as good as Gray.)

 

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO

 

4

 

Kohl Stewart

 

POS: RHP HT: 6-3 WT: 190 School: St. Pius X (Houston)

 

Analysis: This will be Stewart, Gray or Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire on a well below-slot deal.

 

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO

 

5

 

Jonathan Gray

 

POS: RHP HT: 6-4 WT: 239 School: Oklahoma

 

Analysis: I've heard them on Bryant and Moran all spring, and Chris Antonetti flew to Georgia to meet with Clint Frazier earlier this week, but I think they'll take Gray if he falls to them.

 

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO

[Guest]

Thanks.

 

And wow at both Epstein apparently preferring Gray and Moran gaining stream at 1.1.

[Cubswin11]

Thanks.

 

And wow at both Epstein apparently preferring Grayand Moran gaining stream at 1.1.

Yeah, that comment that someone caught him making at the Gray start he attended about "finding our Verlander" may be true.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Bless the Astros for effectively giving us the No. 1 pick.

[Guest]

That strategy they outlined for Houston seems really risky to me in theory. Why would Moran care that the rumor is no one would take him til 5? He went 1.1, and since Houston's entire draft would disintegrate without him signing, they seem to have more to lose than he does.

 

How much under slot did Correa sign for?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That strategy they outlined for Houston seems really risky to me in theory. Why would Moran care that the rumor is no one would take him til 5? He went 1.1, and since Houston's entire draft would disintegrate without him signing, they seem to have more to lose than he does.

 

How much under slot did Correa sign for?

 

Slot was $7.2m, he signed for $4.8m.

[GammonsPocketTweets]

Does Theo have final say over the pick? How much clout does McLoud have?

[WrigleyField 22]

Wouldn't they have a verbal agreement prior to the draft? Seems that would mitigate the risk considerably.

[Guest]

Does Theo have final say over the pick? How much clout does McLoud have?

 

Is that really a question you just asked?

[Guest]

Wouldn't they have a verbal agreement prior to the draft? Seems that would mitigate the risk considerably.

 

That's how I'd see it. I guess he could pull a Cush on them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Seems like Moran would have a lot more to lose in that situation.

 

He turns down a guaranteed check for $4-5m and goes back to school, risking ineffectiveness or injury and guaranteeing him a bad rep with front offices around the league. His potential gain is that *maybe* he improves his draft standing and commands a little more money next year.

 

The Astros, meanwhile, get the No. 2 pick guaranteed next year if he doesn't sign. No big loss for them, they are in no hurry.

[GammonsPocketTweets]

Does Theo have final say over the pick? How much clout does McLoud have?

 

Is that really a question you just asked?

 

Well, I don't think he's sitting over McClouds shoulder for all 40 rounds, at some point I"m guessing he drops off. I"m sure they reach a descision as a group, it would just be cool to see the dymanic if they had a huge disagreement over the top pick