2013 Draft Discussion

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Epstein technically has the authority, but I don't think he's the "screw you guys, I'm the boss" type.

[Guest]

Epstein technically has the authority, but I don't think he's the "screw you guys, I'm the boss" type.

 

Of course not... but there's no question as to who makes the final call. Especially on the first pick.

[KingCubsFan]

Epstein technically has the authority, but I don't think he's the "screw you guys, I'm the boss" type.

 

Of course not... but there's no question as to who makes the final call. Especially on the first pick.

Technically yes. But I could see Epstein's "final call" being "Jason, who do you want?"

[Guest]

Seems like Moran would have a lot more to lose in that situation.

 

He turns down a guaranteed check for $4-5m and goes back to school, risking ineffectiveness or injury and guaranteeing him a bad rep with front offices around the league. His potential gain is that *maybe* he improves his draft standing and commands a little more money next year.

 

The Astros, meanwhile, get the No. 2 pick guaranteed next year if he doesn't sign. No big loss for them, they are in no hurry.

 

To be sure, it is a risk on Moran's part. He's risking a couple million to try to gain a couple million, it'd be a bold decision.

 

On the other side though, the Astros have more to lose than stated here. If they draft around the assumption of "Moran at 4 million and superslots elsewhere", Moran not signing screws them out of not only 1.1, but also multiple other high picks they no longer have money for. I'm not sure 1.2 next year makes up for that loss.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Good point. I still don't think there's much chance of a guy going back on a pre-arranged deal that high in the draft, but I hate the Astros' strategy and anything that makes it look worse is cool with me.

[WrigleyField 22]

I think the agent has a lot to lose by letting his client back out on a deal. And the player still has a ton to lose if they can't get picked equally as high (and isn't next years draft supposed to be better?)

[Guest]

Wouldn't they have a verbal agreement prior to the draft? Seems that would mitigate the risk considerably.

 

Correa did last year.

[jersey cubs fan]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?content_id=48991342&partnerId=as_mlb_20130530_8409784&ymd=20130530

 

mlb.com tweeted this mock from Mayo

 

Here's how picks 1-33 look. Changes from the last mock Draft are noted.

 

1. Astros: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma

The Astros are down to five candidates: two college pitchers (Gray and Mark Appel), two college hitters (Kris Bryant and Colin Moran) and one high schooler (Clint Frazier or Austin Meadows). There are whispers regarding Bryant and Moran, but Gray is still the pick.

 

2. Cubs: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

With no change at No. 1, there's no reason to change No. 2.

 

3. Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego

Same as above. If Bryant goes No. 1, then the Rockies could look at one of the big arms.

 

4. Twins: Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X HS (Texas)

The Twins have liked Stewart's power right arm all along and will have a comfort level that they can sign him away from Texas A&M football before he commits. Last mock Draft: 6 (Marlins)

 

5. Indians: Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina

One of the big two college pitchers would be of interest to the Indians and they could look at Stewart or Trey Ball if they wanted to go the high school pitching route.

[Guest]

Someone else in the media who feels Gray is #1 on the Cubs' board. Even more surprising to see Bryant ahead of Appel:

 

Kiley McDaniel[/url]"]- This one could be a big piece of news if I can get it confirmed by some other sources as the news above: the Cubs board is 1) Jonathan Gray and 2) Kris Bryant. I got this one from a solid source but good intel on the top few picks is tough at this point with those clubs understandably staying quiet to maximize surprise and leverage. Seemingly all that is coming out is info contrarian to the industry consensus and possible under slot deal-cutting, which makes a lot of sense because that's exactly what could force the best players to lower their demands. What I had heard all spring is the Cubs had Appel at #1 a good bit ahead of the other two players, so I'll need more to go on before buying this completely. So, I'm considering this info but not implementing it into my mock draft just yet, though that may change in the coming days.

[Guest]

Also in the same link, another Jayson Werth comp for Bryant:

 

I asked a national crosschecker to compare Peterson and San Diego 6'5, 215 pound 3B Kris Bryant's power on the 20-80 scouting scale and he gave Peterson a 65 (25-30 HR annually) and Bryant a 75 (35-40 HR annually), in line with the other accounts I've received on the hitters. Bryant is likely a right fielder long-term but his physical length will limit his ability to hit for average long-term, hence the Jayson Werth comps, while Peterson's shorter stature actually increases his chances to hit for average. Bryant's power is created by his length and leverage primarily, while Peterson's comes more from raw strength. One scout said Peterson is the best hitter he's seen in 25 years and compared him to Jeff Bagwell, while another said he's more like Billy Butler. Despite his historic college season (.340/.500/.860, 31 HR), Bryant is projected as more of a .260-.275 hitter while Peterson is expected to be a notch better and had his own huge season to boot (.411/.525/.823, 18 HR). With both ending up in a corner in short order, this explains why one will go in the top 5 and the other will go in the top 12, as their upside isn't considerably different despite getting there in very different ways.

[toonsterwu]

Bless the Astros for effectively giving us the No. 1 pick.

 

Before we get too giddy about things ... as much as I am personally lukewarm about Moran, there's actually quite a bit to like. He's a good defensive third baseman. He should hit for a solid average, and the potential is there for more power to come. If you don't think Kris Bryant can stick at third, and you believe Moran will add some more power, then the argument for Moran over Bryant isn't that hard. Then, the question becomes whether or not you gamble on a position player over those two arms, and whether or not the savings you gain, plus the talent you add, is enough to overcome said difference.

 

Don't get me wrong - I think Gray is the top guy in the draft, and Appel is 2nd, but there's a very good argument that taking the position player is worth it. It's not as if Gray and Appel don't have their flaws. I'm big on Gray, and he's my preferred guy, but he needs work. I guess, my point is, if the Astros do go Moran, there is an argument for it.

[toonsterwu]

Someone else in the media who feels Gray is #1 on the Cubs' board. Even more surprising to see Bryant ahead of Appel:

 

Kiley McDaniel[/url]"]- This one could be a big piece of news if I can get it confirmed by some other sources as the news above: the Cubs board is 1) Jonathan Gray and 2) Kris Bryant. I got this one from a solid source but good intel on the top few picks is tough at this point with those clubs understandably staying quiet to maximize surprise and leverage. Seemingly all that is coming out is info contrarian to the industry consensus and possible under slot deal-cutting, which makes a lot of sense because that's exactly what could force the best players to lower their demands. What I had heard all spring is the Cubs had Appel at #1 a good bit ahead of the other two players, so I'll need more to go on before buying this completely. So, I'm considering this info but not implementing it into my mock draft just yet, though that may change in the coming days.

 

That would be fascinating. I'm not huge on Appel, but I'd take him over Bryant. Interesting.

 

Wasn't there someone claiming that Appel was first on the Cubs board (besides Kiley's comment there)?

[jersey cubs fan]

Wasn't there someone claiming that Appel was first on the Cubs board (besides Kiley's comment there)?

 

I think lots of people have claimed Appel was first on the Cubs board.

[Guest]

Also in the same link, another Jayson Werth comp for Bryant:

 

I asked a national crosschecker to compare Peterson and San Diego 6'5, 215 pound 3B Kris Bryant's power on the 20-80 scouting scale and he gave Peterson a 65 (25-30 HR annually) and Bryant a 75 (35-40 HR annually), in line with the other accounts I've received on the hitters. Bryant is likely a right fielder long-term but his physical length will limit his ability to hit for average long-term, hence the Jayson Werth comps, while Peterson's shorter stature actually increases his chances to hit for average. Bryant's power is created by his length and leverage primarily, while Peterson's comes more from raw strength. One scout said Peterson is the best hitter he's seen in 25 years and compared him to Jeff Bagwell, while another said he's more like Billy Butler. Despite his historic college season (.340/.500/.860, 31 HR), Bryant is projected as more of a .260-.275 hitter while Peterson is expected to be a notch better and had his own huge season to boot (.411/.525/.823, 18 HR). With both ending up in a corner in short order, this explains why one will go in the top 5 and the other will go in the top 12, as their upside isn't considerably different despite getting there in very different ways.

 

75 power (35-40 HR annually) and a Jayson Werth comp, eh?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Bless the Astros for effectively giving us the No. 1 pick.

 

Before we get too giddy about things ... as much as I am personally lukewarm about Moran, there's actually quite a bit to like. He's a good defensive third baseman. He should hit for a solid average, and the potential is there for more power to come. If you don't think Kris Bryant can stick at third, and you believe Moran will add some more power, then the argument for Moran over Bryant isn't that hard. Then, the question becomes whether or not you gamble on a position player over those two arms, and whether or not the savings you gain, plus the talent you add, is enough to overcome said difference.

 

Don't get me wrong - I think Gray is the top guy in the draft, and Appel is 2nd, but there's a very good argument that taking the position player is worth it. It's not as if Gray and Appel don't have their flaws. I'm big on Gray, and he's my preferred guy, but he needs work. I guess, my point is, if the Astros do go Moran, there is an argument for it.

 

Sure. It's not a Hayden-Simpson-level off-board pick. You could talk yourself into liking Correa last year, too, and they did. But I'm still giddy over getting Buxton if I'm the Twins.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Correa is hitting 280/401/412 as an 18 year old in A ball, which also happens to be a pitcher's league. Astros are gonna make out just fine.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Correa is hitting 280/401/412 as an 18 year old in A ball, which also happens to be a pitcher's league. Astros are gonna make out just fine.

 

And Buxton is out-OPSing him but almost 200 points in the same league while being just nine months older.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

And Correa plays SS, with an extremely low error rate for someone playing in the MWL at his age.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And Correa plays SS, with an extremely low error rate for someone playing in the MWL at his age.

 

And I'm still taking Buxton ahead of him without a second thought.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

That's fine, but I think it's kind of silly to say the Astros had to talk themselves into taking Correa.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's fine, but I think it's kind of silly to say the Astros had to talk themselves into taking Correa.

 

No, it's not. The fact that they got a good prospect doesn't change the fact that they got a lesser prospect.

[Guest]

Correa has also been playing injured this year. He had a sore back and then got hit in the wrist. Both of those things will sap the power.

 

Given the SSS and the above, it's too early to say which is the better prospect. I'd love to have either.

[imb]

I notice there's been no mention of McCullers in this discussion for some reason

[Guest]

I notice there's been no mention of McCullers in this discussion for some reason

 

It's an especially fun comparison because both picked back to back in the supplemental round as well.

 

Correa + McCullers comes out way ahead against Buxton + Luke Bard, for now at least. Although if they had taken the guy who went right after him(Pierce Johnson)? Then that wipes that gap away almost entirely, with the caveat that Johnson wasn't exactly a cheap sign.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I notice there's been no mention of McCullers in this discussion for some reason

 

Because it was implied? We all know why they took a lesser prospect with the first pick, and why they are considering doing so again.