2013 Draft Discussion

[davell]

Only way I wind up preferring Gray is if his stock just keeps rising. Appel has an ace ceiling, but also relatively safe to be a midrotation type, assuming health.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How long of a DL stint are we counting in the Gray projection?

[Guest]

How long of a DL stint are we counting in the Gray projection?

 

Why do we get to project injuries only for Gray and not Appel?

[davell]

Tyler Danish, HS RHP, low 90's, excellent makeup, bigtime sinker, has put up this line this year: 42IP, 14H, 0R, 7W, and 73K's. I'd think he's on our radar at 41, if he's not long gone.

[Guest]

Tyler Danish, HS RHP, low 90's, excellent makeup, bigtime sinker, has put up this line this year: 42IP, 14H, 0R, 7W, and 73K's. I'd think he's on our radar at 41, if he's not long gone.

 

Judging by what Kiley McDaniel and Connor Glassey have said, he's late first round material now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How long of a DL stint are we counting in the Gray projection?

 

Why do we get to project injuries only for Gray and not Appel?

 

Throws insanely hard, some conditioning questions in his past, not considered to have a real polished delivery. I just don't trust him.

[craig]

Friend watched the Gray game, was really impressed. Ranked him as the best of the college pitchers.

Said stuff was fantastic, overpowering velocity, great command, said he was throwing his slider for strikes like it was nothing, and threw a lot of dynamite changeups. Also said he had big-league mound presence, didn't get upset when the ump blew some calls, or when defense messed up.

 

With his 3-pitch repertoire and his great command, it won't take him long. College picks this draft won't pitch this summer. But with his command, he might be on a kind of Prior-type schedule.

 

As with any pitcher, who knows how long he'll last. And as with any pitcher, who knows how it will be on 5-day rotation versus the 7-day college schedule. But I'd guess he's moving away from Manea. And that if the Cubs really want a college pitcher, and are willing to live with the injuries and short careers that come with the territory, they'll have a very good one available.

[davell]

Appel went 8, gave up 6 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and 11 K's. Manaea went 7, gave up 3 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, and 8 K's.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Appel went 8, gave up 6 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and 11 K's.

 

I must have caught him during his bad inning. He had a walk and looked pretty wild during the one I caught.

[davell]

The Gerrit Cole comps on Gray are intriguing and are beginning to look realistic, it as ppears. Meadows has been on fire, by the way. Its very possible hes who the Astros take.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe it's just me, but I think the "weak draft" stuff should be going away. Besides the fact that we hear it 3 years out of every 4 anyway.

 

I'm starting to come around on Gray.

[Guest]

The Gerrit Cole comps on Gray are intriguing and are beginning to look realistic, it as ppears. Meadows has been on fire, by the way. Its very possible hes who the Astros take.

 

Just remember this about the Cole comps for Gray: Gerrit Cole would be drafted ahead of Appel.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Talked to the guy who writes about prospects for the Astros' SB Nation blog on Twitter, and he seemed convinced they were going with Appel.

[Guest]

Friend watched the Gray game, was really impressed. Ranked him as the best of the college pitchers.

Said stuff was fantastic, overpowering velocity, great command, said he was throwing his slider for strikes like it was nothing, and threw a lot of dynamite changeups. Also said he had big-league mound presence, didn't get upset when the ump blew some calls, or when defense messed up.

 

With his 3-pitch repertoire and his great command, it won't take him long. College picks this draft won't pitch this summer. But with his command, he might be on a kind of Prior-type schedule.

 

As with any pitcher, who knows how long he'll last. And as with any pitcher, who knows how it will be on 5-day rotation versus the 7-day college schedule. But I'd guess he's moving away from Manea. And that if the Cubs really want a college pitcher, and are willing to live with the injuries and short careers that come with the territory, they'll have a very good one available.

 

That's not entirely accurate these days with the early signing deadline. Cole and Hultzen didn't pitch in 2011 but not only did Bauer and Sonny Gray pitch, they both got up to AA in the year they were drafted. Last summer, both Gausman and Zimmer ended up pitching in the minors, as did our very own Pierce Johnson.

[davell]

Maybe it's just me, but I think the "weak draft" stuff should be going away. Besides the fact that we hear it 3 years out of every 4 anyway.

 

I'm starting to come around on Gray.

There's been lots of pop up guys as well this spring. I don't think of this as a weak draft right now either. We'll be happy with what we get at 2 and at 41 as well. Plenty of HS pitching that'd fit with that pick. Right now, I'd be OK with any of Appel, Gray, Bryant, or Meadows at 2. I'd prefer Appel or Gray, but if Meadows or Bryant agreed to sign for well under slot, I'd be OK with that. Because we could then get multiple high upside arms later on with some of that money. I just don't know if one of this group separates themselves at this point. Nor do I think thats necessarily a bad thing.

[toonsterwu]

This is sort of a off-the-beaten path comparison, but I sort of think of Jonathan Papelbon when I think of Gray. Papelbon could've been a very solid starter if he wanted to stay in that role.

[RammyFanny]

David Kaplan ‏@thekapman 29m

 

Last nugget from scouting contact: "I know they want a college pitcher at #2 but they could get the best position player if Appel goes #1.

[craig]

Maybe it's just me, but I think the "weak draft" stuff should be going away. Besides the fact that we hear it 3 years out of every 4 anyway.

 

Good point. Seems unusual in that most of the big-name guys coming in are playing at or above their hype, and others are emerging.

 

Usually a bunch of the touted guys don't necessarily perform. Zunina last year wasn't stellar; from days past, Bobby Brownlie comes to mind. But thus far it seems that with a few exceptions, most of the big names are performing at or above expectation. Stanek is the one sinker, and obviously Manea hasn't helped himself. But Appel has elevated enormously, from good-arm-but-where's-the-results guy to a guy whose production and K/BB stats look great. Gray has obviously gone crazy. Bryant has gone crazy. Frazier has gone nuts, and Meadows is doing well. Last year Buxton came in with huge rep, and still went #2; but he hit about 2 HR's all spring.

 

I think the strength at the top looks very good, and the depth through 42 as well.

[craig]

.... College picks this draft won't pitch this summer. But with his command, he might be on a kind of Prior-type schedule. ....

 

That's not entirely accurate these days with the early signing deadline. Cole and Hultzen didn't pitch in 2011 but not only did Bauer and Sonny Gray pitch, they both got up to AA in the year they were drafted. Last summer, both Gausman and Zimmer ended up pitching in the minors, as did our very own Pierce Johnson.

 

True. Hyperbole on my part. Cole and Hultzen didn't pitch. Sonny Gray pitched 20 innings. Our own Pierce Johnson pitched 11. Trevor Bauer pitched 26. So they might pitch a little; but either none at all or not much. 10-20 innings this August I don't think makes much difference developmentally.

 

Although I suppose that even 20 innings might be meaningful for schedule; if a guy pitches 20 innings in A+ or AA, and looks good, that might be the baseline so that it's easier to assign him straight to AA next April.

 

Mark Prior didn't pitch at all, but then was assigned straight to AA his first spring. By summer he was called up. That's kind of how I'm seeing it: with Gray and Appel, whether they pitch a bit this August or not, I'd expect they'd start next spring in AA. And if they pitch well, I expect they'd be up sometime next summer. If they don't pitch very well, of course, perhaps not. And it might not be out of the question that Gray might be started in daytona rather than AA, if he didn't pitch at all this summer. If either struggles some in AA, of course they might not get called up next summer.

 

Given that Gray and Appel seem to be throwing 9-inning games and throwing 100+ pitches every FRiday, and given that both are on good teams that might stay in the playoffs for a while, my guess is the Cubs wouldn't actually pitch either one this summer. With Appel having Boras, he's not likely to sign very fast, so he might be especially unlikely to have the time to sign and get stretched out again enough to actually pitch in games.

[craig]

...with Gray and Appel, whether they pitch a bit this August or not, I'd expect they'd start next spring in AA. And if they pitch well, I expect they'd be up sometime next summer. ....

 

It's fun to think about how quickly the pitching staff could change, if health permits and things go right. Baez, soler, Almora, they are exciting but they are probably some distance away from breaking in, and perhaps longer before being really good. But pitchers are often as good or better as rookies as they are later.

 

It's not at all implausible that by August 2015, that Gray or Appel would be ready to join Samardz and Jackson. In the off chance that Garza actually gets and stays healthy, I don't expect his trade value is going to be too hot, so I think there's a fair chance the Cubs will end up resigning him. So I could well imagine Samardz, Jackson, Garza, and Gray by next summer. Pierce Johnson should be ready by then also, if things go right. He'll start at Daytona, so if he's good he'll get up to AA this summer, and be able to start with Gray/Appel at AA next April (health and performance permitting, of course.) If Vizcaino is to make it back, he should be ready by next summer as well. And if Paniagua is ready to start this year at Daytona, in the even he ever gets his visa stuff worked out, anybody who's starting at A+ one spring is fairly likely to be big-league ready by the following August if things go well. Obviously everything isn't going to go well for all of Vizcaino, Paniagua, Johnson, Garza, and #2 pick. But there is some volume that could transform the talent level of the rotation before 2014 is done.

 

It's getting the hitters fixed that's going to take longer.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm a lot more bearish than that on our medium-term rotation outlook. That's a whole lot of 30+ pitchers (by then) and sore-armed prospects to be counting on.

[craig]

I'm a lot more bearish than that on our medium-term rotation outlook. That's a whole lot of 30+ pitchers (by then) and sore-armed prospects to be counting on.

 

Vizcaino is the only presently sore-armed prospect I mentioned, and Garza is the only presently-injured vet of the 7 good-armed guys I mentioned (Samardz/Jackson/Garza/Vizcaino/draftee/Johnson/Paniagua).

 

I'm not assuming 5-7 of those 7 will look good in July 2014. But right now we've got two good arms (Samardz and Jackson) and 3 filler spots. I think it's reasonable/plausible that by July 2014, we might have four of those seven guys healthy enough and advanced enough to be in the rotation, and need only one filler guy.

 

I'm not assuming it will work out. All seven might be injured by then, or all of those that aren't might be wild and performing poorly. But there's at least a reasonable plausible possibility (possibility, not expectation) that we could have good arms than fillers in the rotation by next summer.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm a lot more bearish than that on our medium-term rotation outlook. That's a whole lot of 30+ pitchers (by then) and sore-armed prospects to be counting on.

 

Vizcaino is the only presently sore-armed prospect I mentioned, and Garza is the only presently-injured vet of the 7 good-armed guys I mentioned (Samardz/Jackson/Garza/Vizcaino/draftee/Johnson/Paniagua).

 

I'm not assuming 5-7 of those 7 will look good in July 2014. But right now we've got two good arms (Samardz and Jackson) and 3 filler spots. I think it's reasonable/plausible that by July 2014, we might have four of those seven guys healthy enough and advanced enough to be in the rotation, and need only one filler guy.

 

I'm not assuming it will work out. All seven might be injured by then, or all of those that aren't might be wild and performing poorly. But there's at least a reasonable plausible possibility (possibility, not expectation) that we could have good arms than fillers in the rotation by next summer.

 

Pierce Johnson is a sore-arm too, isn't he?

 

If I had to project a median for how many good starting pitchers we get from that group in 2014, 3 seems about right.

[craig]

Not sure. But if 3 is median, in the uncertain world of probabilities that gives a pretty meaningful possibility that you might get 4. If we had four good rotation starters with very good arms by next July, that would be quite a jump from what we have now, or what we had last year.

 

It's possible.

 

In terms of health, I think the median would be five healthy. (maybe 4.7, or something nearer 5 than 4). Obviously being healthy and being "good" are not the same. Vizcaino might have his arm strength back, for example, but that hardly means he'll have the control.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

*If* we re-sign Garza and the health issues on the MLB side aren't too bad, we should have a very solid rotation in 2014, agreed.