2013 Draft Discussion

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, if we don't come out of that draft feeling like we picked someone who comes in ahead of Almora, I'll be disappointed.

 

Unrelated, but I noticed today while looking at the minorleagueball top 150 list that the Cardinals' pick from last year, Wacha, is already ahead of Almora.

 

@%#@$ Cardinals

[davell]

Don't fret over that. Sickels looks at stats more than any of the other guys. I don't think anyone else sees him as more than a mid rotation guy.(nothing wrong with mid rotation)

[Guest]

Yeah, if we don't come out of that draft feeling like we picked someone who comes in ahead of Almora, I'll be disappointed.

 

Unrelated, but I noticed today while looking at the minorleagueball top 150 list that the Cardinals' pick from last year, Wacha, is already ahead of Almora.

 

@%#@$ Cardinals

 

Wow, that's silly.

[davell]

I've seen comments(and politically correct"no comments") made from Mike Newman, Law, Parks, Goldstein, and likely others as well, that take issue with Sickels' scouting knowledge. They respect the fact he's carved out a career and all, but he just offers little to zero true insight, outside of stuff any of us can see(Baez needs to be more selective, etc)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Don't fret over that. Sickels looks at stats more than any of the other guys. I don't think anyone else sees him as more than a mid rotation guy.(nothing wrong with mid rotation)

 

Wacha is also No. 76 on Baseball America's list and No. 56 on BP's. This is for a guy selected 19th.

 

Apparently he got some pixie dust sprinkled on him immediately upon signing with the Cardinals and added some velocity that he hadn't shown before.

[davell]

Thats all well and good, but his velo went up because he was pitching in much shorter stints as a reliever, than he would be as a starter. BA gave him a 55 grade, for what its worth.

[RammyFanny]

Bryant went 2-6 with 2 BB's and 2 K's and another walkoff HR, this time in the 14th.

[Guest]

Thats all well and good, but his velo went up because he was pitching in much shorter stints as a reliever, than he would be as a starter. BA gave him a 55 grade, for what its worth.

 

His biggest issue as a starter is that, right now, he's a 2-pitch pitcher (fastball/change; admittedly a plus change). His slider is below average and only projects to be average at best.

[davell]

Marlin says Bryant is definitely still in our mix. Gray too, who we had quite a few higher ups at his game on Friday.

[Guest]

Manaea rolled his ankle celebrating the last play of the Indiana St-Minnesota game Friday. He should be fine to start next Friday.

[davell]

Stanek failed to make it out of the 5th again today.

[Redfoot]

Stanek had another unspectacular outing today. The stuff was there but his command was not. He had good velocity and threw a couple real nice changeups but he was missing all over the place and got away with some hanging sliders. I know they say he's a slow starter and the strike zone was a moving target for him today but he has to get better than this.

[davell]

Chris Crawfords' latest Big Board now has a top 10 of Appel, Gray, Meadows, Bryant, Kohl Stewart, Manaea, Frazier, Stanek, Austin Wilson and Ball. Others of note include Chris Anderson at 12, Trevor Williams at 20, Dominic Smith at 21, Matt Krook at 22, and Jonathon Crawford at 28. Crawford runs MLBDRAFTINSIDER, writes for ESPN's draft coverage, and is probably the friendliest draft guy on Twitter to ask questions to.

[RammyFanny]

I know numbers aren't everything, but for kicks and giggles, I decided to compare Junior season numbers of Bryant vs. some of the best college hitting prospects over the years:

 

Kris Bryant early season numbers:

 

.386/.561/.986 -- 12 HR's. Leads Div. 1 with 26 walks and i'm not sure on K's, though I thought it might be 16. Keeping in mind there's still a ton of games to be played, and of course that slugging has to come down at some point, but...

 

Evan Longoria:

.353/.468/.602 -- 11 HR's, 40 BB : 29 K

 

Ryan Zimmerman:

.393/.469/.581 -- 6 HR's, 31 BB : 14 K

 

Matt Weiters:

.358/.480/.592 -- 10 HR's, 51 BB : 37K

 

Mike Zunino:

.322/.394/.669 -- 19 HR's, 31 BB : 47 K

 

Anthony Rendon

.327/.520/.523 -- 6 HR's, 80 BB : 33 K's. Had 26 HR's and 20 HR's the years before and hit .394 and .388. BTW, he's killing the ball this spring. All about health.

Pedro Alvarez

.317/.424/.593 -- 9 HR's, 28 BB : 28 K. Had 22 and 18 HR's in years before, and hit .386 sophomore year.

 

And right on cue, a big ol' fluff piece from BA on him:

San Diego coach Rich Hill remembers that when Troy Glaus played at UCLA, then-Southern California coach Mike Gillespie would sometimes use four outfielders and three infielders during his at-bats. Anything to get an edge against the fearsome slugger.

 

Don't be surprised if desperate opponents start thinking way outside the box to scheme against USD junior Kris Bryant.

 

"Every once in a while you have a player like this in college baseball—just a guy who can dominate the college game," Hill said. "The only time I can remember seeing anything like this is Troy Glaus."

In light of the last two weeks, nobody would blame you for comparing Bryant to Roy Hobbs, either. There was his mammoth home run deep into the night against Saint Louis last week—a shot that either soared halfway up the light standard or cleared it altogether, depending on who you ask. "It grows by the week—it was 500 feet, then the next week it was 550 feet, then it was 600," Hill said.

Later that day, San Diego catcher Dillon Haupt—himself the national leader in doubles and USD's leader in batting (.392)—tweeted of Bryant, "He's not human."

 

His coach seems to think he's an OF in the pro's:

"For me, that's my favorite thing about Kris is just the athleticism," Hill said. "This is a 6-5, wiry, athletic guy that someday, he has Gold Glove right fielder defensively written on him. And I think he could do the same thing at first base. He could play third base in a pinch in the big leagues, and center field at the college level very well. He can throw somebody out at the plate, he can steal a base. All these things are just emerging—the athleticism, arm strength, power. Now you put the hitting ability, not just power but using all fields, power to all fields, not striking out.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2013/03/three-strikes-week-five-3/

[CubsWin]

So with about 2 1/2 months to go, is it fair to say that Appel and Bryant are distinguishing themselves from the rest of the pack with Gray, Frazier, Meadows and Manaea in the next tier?

[davell]

I'm really starting to think Gray is in the top tier. Or Appel is alone and the second tier is just Bryant and Gray.

[RammyFanny]

Although he can certainly get there, I don't think Bryant's the clear cut number 2 yet. Appel is certainly at the top i'd say, but given his history with the Astros i'm not ready to say they'd take him 1-1 even if he keeps doing what he's doing.

 

And while Manaea seems to be trending down, let's keep in mind he still has like a 1.02 ERA or something, better than Appel. Three weeks from now if he puts together a few 15K performances where he's sitting at 96, I have a feeling people are going to forget his slight drop in stuff from the early season. It's really wait and see at this point with everyone.

 

The fun thing about Bryant though is that there's a pretty good chance he's a fast track guy similar to Zunino, and there's a decent chance he'd be up sometime around the times Baez and Soler are called up. Now of course, BPA always, but the timeline thing is still worth mentioning at least.

Edited March 18, 2013 by RammyFanny

[Guest]

Although he can certainly get there, I don't think Bryant's the clear cut number 2 yet. Appel is certainly at the top i'd say, but given his history with the Astros i'm not ready to say they'd take him 1-1 even if he keeps doing what he's doing.

 

And while Manaea seems to be trending down, let's keep in mind he still has like a 1.02 ERA or something, better than Appel. Three weeks from now if he puts together a few 15K performances where he's sitting at 96, I have a feeling people are going to forget his slight drop in stuff from the early season. It's really wait and see at this point with everyone.

 

Manaea has racked up gaudy stats against inferior competition, competition that especially pales in comparison to Appel facing Rice, Texas and (arguably) Fresno State. And Manaea isn't going to face many good teams the rest of the way.

 

I'd break it up like this:

 

Appel

------

Gray

Manaea

Bryant

Meadows

Frazier

 

With Austin Wilson and Kohl Stewart real wild cards who can bump up to that second tier.

[RammyFanny]

Yeah, Appel's competition is certainly a lot more challenging. No doubt.

[Guest]

Yeah, Appel's competition is certainly a lot more challenging. No doubt.

[expletive] I want him.

[Cubswin11]

Is there anyone who has scouted/seen Bryant play that think he can stick at 3B? If so my top 5 right now would probably be Appel, Bryant, Gray, Manaea, and Fraizer

[RammyFanny]

Meadows And Frazier Both Have Premium Tools

 

HITTING - Advantage: Meadows

POWER - Advantage: Frazier

SPEED & DEFENSE - Advantage: Push

ARM - Advantage: Frazier

 

FINAL VERDICT

For all the similarities, there are also plenty of differences. Meadows does everything smooth and easy. Frazier, pardon the pun, plays like his hair is on fire.

 

"That's how he's been his whole life," the area scout said. "The bigger the stage, the bigger the game, he's just an animal. You could take the top 40 kids in the country and put them in a steel cage and say, 'Who comes out with the baseball will go first,' and I'd bet you that kid would go first. That's just his mentality."

 

There won't be a steel cage in the MLB Network studio on June 6. Both players are still the cream of the crop and scouts are still divided as to which one will be the better major leaguer.

 

BA feels Meadows is more patient and that he projects to hit 25 HRs at his peak.

 

CR, did they give a HR projection for Frazier? I assume it's more than 25 if he got the advantage over Meadows in power? That seems to be the big thing with Frazier. I see Kiley McDaniel say he's more like an "average" 15 annual HR guy (yet ranks him really high), whereas I think he can be around Baez's level and be a 30 HR kind of guy if things break right. Curious as to what BA says on it.

[Guest]

Is there anyone who has scouted/seen Bryant play that think he can stick at 3B? If so my top 5 right now would probably be Appel, Bryant, Gray, Manaea, and Fraizer

 

I don't know the answer to that question, but if Bryant can play 3B that would make for one ridiculous prospect-fantasy infield

 

1B - Rizzo

2B - Baez

SS - Castro

3B - Bryant

 

HNGGGGGGGGGG

[Guest]

Is there anyone who has scouted/seen Bryant play that think he can stick at 3B? If so my top 5 right now would probably be Appel, Bryant, Gray, Manaea, and Fraizer

 

There have been a few, yes.

 

It seems people in the media are gung ho about moving Bryant because he won't be limited to 1B.

[Guest]

Meadows And Frazier Both Have Premium Tools

 

HITTING - Advantage: Meadows

POWER - Advantage: Frazier

SPEED & DEFENSE - Advantage: Push

ARM - Advantage: Frazier

 

FINAL VERDICT

For all the similarities, there are also plenty of differences. Meadows does everything smooth and easy. Frazier, pardon the pun, plays like his hair is on fire.

 

"That's how he's been his whole life," the area scout said. "The bigger the stage, the bigger the game, he's just an animal. You could take the top 40 kids in the country and put them in a steel cage and say, 'Who comes out with the baseball will go first,' and I'd bet you that kid would go first. That's just his mentality."

 

There won't be a steel cage in the MLB Network studio on June 6. Both players are still the cream of the crop and scouts are still divided as to which one will be the better major leaguer.

 

BA feels Meadows is more patient and that he projects to hit 25 HRs at his peak.

 

CR, did they give a HR projection for Frazier? I assume it's more than 25 if he got the advantage over Meadows in power? That seems to be the big thing with Frazier. I see Kiley McDaniel say he's more like an "average" 15 annual HR guy (yet ranks him really high), whereas I think he can be around Baez's level and be a 30 HR kind of guy if things break right. Curious as to what BA says on it.

 

Here:

 

Meadows has power too, but is probably more of a 25-home run guy at his peak, as opposed to a 40-home run threat.

 

"I don't question either of those guys' power," the scouting director said. "That's the least of my worries on those two players."