2013 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Stanek with a stellar outing thus far. He ended up going the distance against top 5 South Carolina, striking out 7 and walking only 1. Both runs he gave up were unearned.

 

Stanek hit 94 in the 9th.

[Cubswin11]

Gray's/Appel's lines this weekend:

 

Gray: 9IP 3H 1ER 1BB 12Ks, struck out his last batter in the 12th with a 97mph fastball

Appel: 8IP 6H 1ER 1BB 11Ks 1HR

[Guest]

Ziomek struggled last night against Florida, primarily with command and control: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2013/03/gators-knock-off-ziomek-vanderbilt/

[Hrubes20]

By the way, just wanted to say Hrubes is an excellent poster at PSD. Here's hoping you crossover more often. There's good stuff on both boards. And I'll pimp out Gato over there as well. (priortotheo......)He's a damn good contributor draft wise for sure.

 

Wasn't aware... Welcome over here, hrubes (pretend like you're reading this 19 posts ago).

 

Thanks to both of you. I do really like what I've seen on NSBB. Seems to be a good group of knowledgable posters. I look forward to joining more discussions on here.

[toonsterwu]

Not to drag this out, but Hrubes, where do I know you from? I vaguely thought we've interacted before somewhere, and I don't post on psd.

 

Uh, since I feel like I should make some useful comment on the 2013 draft ... Shipley had a fairly mediocre outing on Friday.

[davell]

There's a pretty good LHP(top 10 round talent) who's name is Tyler Nurdin. Name alone makes me want us to take him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There's a pretty good LHP(top 10 round talent) who's name is Tyler Nurdin. Name alone makes me want us to take him.

 

Don't talk about him.

[Guest]

I really liked LHP Matt Krook's (Bay area high school) scouting reports when he started surfacing as a potential top 3 rounds guy a few weeks ago but it looks like he's already played himself into a first rounder (Law has him at #17 overall). He's been routinely in the low 90s, hitting 95 in his starts this season.

 

There are signability concerns as he's considered a strong commitment to Oregon.

[Guest]

 

I heard he hit 101 on FOX Sports' gun.

[Cubswin11]

 

I heard he hit 101 on FOX Sports' gun.

I know it's been mentioned before (by Law maybe) and this is the first time I've seen video of Gray, but it sure looks like he has a lot of effort and moving parts in his pitching motion.

[davell]

Chris Crawford has his 2nd mock out and has us taking Gray at 2. His mock goes through the supplemental round and the first thing I noticed is that both Jonathan Crawford and Bobby Wahl are not listed. If they somehow made it to us at 41, that'd be great.

[Guest]

College Draft Prospects Stat Roundup: Week 6

 

• Righthanders Mark Appel (Stanford), Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma) and Chris Anderson (Jacksonville) continued to dominate, with each racking up double-digit strikeouts yet again. All three pitchers will likely be selected in the top half of the first round this June.

[Hrubes20]

Not to drag this out, but Hrubes, where do I know you from? I vaguely thought we've interacted before somewhere, and I don't post on psd.

 

Uh, since I feel like I should make some useful comment on the 2013 draft ... Shipley had a fairly mediocre outing on Friday.

 

Possibly at TCR? I rarely post there, but I've asked a few questions to AZPhil over the years.

[davell]

Crawford has Shipley going 8th overall now. Anderson 9th. Andrew Mitchell moves to 11th. Andrew Thurman from UC Irvine is at 17. First time I've heard him in the 1st round area. He's got Ziomek at 29 and Windle at 35.

[Guest]

Crawford has Shipley going 8th overall now. Anderson 9th. Andrew Mitchell moves to 11th. Andrew Thurman from UC Irvine is at 17. First time I've heard him in the 1st round area. He's got Ziomek at 29 and Windle at 35.

 

Law and McDaniel have been pushing Thurman. As has BA's Aaron Fitt, who is based in LA/Orange County.

[davell]

I didn't realize this in mentioning our leverage with the 2nd pick, but last year only 1 of the top 5 picks received slot(slightly more actually). Correa at 1, got 4.8 out of a 7.2 slot. Buxton got 6 off of a 6.2 slot, Zunino surprisingly only got 4 off a 5.2 slot. Gausman received 4.320 off a 4.2 slot, but Zimmer got 3 off a 3.5 slot. We paid over slot for Almora at 6, Fried got slot at 7, Appel obviously didn't sign, Heaney was 200k under slot at 9, and even Dahl was 100k under slot at 10. Picks 11, 13, 19, 20, 22, 26, 27, 29, and 31 signed for slot. Only Giolito, Seager, and Marreo got over slot outside the top 10, while picks 12, 14, 15, 17, 21, 23, 25, 28, and 30 all went under slot. I'm very hopeful that because of this, we can get a McCullers type guy fall to us in the 2nd, that we'll be able to give out a 2 mill+ bonus to, in order to get him signed.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel's podcast this week will have Tim Wilkeb as a guest. Will post a link when it's online.

 

Here it is: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1273745.html

 

I haven't listened to it yet, so no idea on the quality.

 

ETA: Sounds like the Wilken interview is on the second half of the podcast and he's got another portion of the interview that'll air next week.

 

Part 2 of the Wilken interview is here: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1276631.html

 

Interesting to hear what all Wilken now does after his promotion.

[Guest]

Jonathan Gray - This was my first look at Gray, a big-bodied RHP with velocity to match his size. The TV broadcast had his fastball at 96-98, which isn't crazy considering reports indicate he's topped triple digits this spring. His breaking ball is an equally nasty pitch, thrown in the mid- to upper-80s with really sharp two-plane break away from RH batters. The velocity suggests it's a slider, but it looks to be thrown more like a curve. Whatever it is, it's nasty, and the hitters also had no chance catching up to his fastball. He attacked hitters with both pitches and really pounded the strike zone to go nine innings (in a 12 inning game). He maintained his velocity deep into the game, and he also mixed in a really nice changeup, which was just icing on the cake. That pitch showed really good fading/sinking action late and down in the zone, with a great speed differential to his fastball. There is some effort to his delivery, but I walked away very impressed. The only thing that came to mind is where he fell in the draft. With his stuff there's no reason to think he won't be in the Astros' discussion for the first overall pick, however his body type is somewhat unlike what you expect from a 1/1. You usually think of guys like Appel, Manaea and even Stanek with tall, lanky yet strong, projectable and well proportioned builds. Gray isn't out of shape by any means, but he's not in the same conversation when it comes to body type.

 

Dillon Overton - Gray has leap-frogged Overton in the Sooners' starting staff, which is one heck of a staff that should advance deep into the college postseason with a very good chance to make Omaha if they can get more bats going past Matt Oberste. I saw Overton and shared my thoughts on him a couple of weeks ago, but he's an interesting pitcher with legitimate pro promise. His upside isn't anywhere near that of Gray, but he should go in the early rounds. He has long and lean limbs with an athletic frame that still has room to add strength. His mechanics are smooth and repeatable with a fastball that tops around the low-90s with room for more He really hits his spots well with his fastball. His overhand curve has promise but the consistency and break just aren't there yet, something I noted in his last start. If he gets over it better I think he'll be able to snap off more effective offerings. He has a really good changeup that complements his FB perfectly. He really slows down with runners on, upsetting hitters, baserunners and just about everyone else's timing. I like that patience on the mound, as he's composed and makes sure he's the one dictating the speed of the game.

 

Ryne Stanek - While Stanek hasn't enjoyed the best of starts to the 2013 season, Arkansas' pitching staff has been rock solid this year, and Stanek was very sharp against South Carolina on Saturday. Frankie Piliere was in attendance at this game and shared his thoughts in the PG MLB Draft Blog. I'm not going to add too much more to what Frankie said, since he painted the picture perfectly, but I will reinforce just how impressive he looked this weekend. The fastball was humming, the slider was sharp in the mid- to late-innings and he really seemed in tune in his dominant CG performance.

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=9908&MessageID=20333#post20333

[craig]

I've wondered about that too, Dave. That wold be nice. Several things that dampen my expectation:

 

1. Last year was very soft on top. Would Correa be in the top five this year? Or Zunnina? I think the top is much stronger

2. Cubs were a strong superslot then, when we thought they could have leverage to slot or less.

3. I think they are strongly committed to getting BPA at #2. May see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they aren't going to pass on their top guy in order to save a million for round 2. (If they are really sold on Appel, I'd not be surprised to see them preoffer a superslot, in hopes Boras uses that to turn Houston off. To some degree I think that's how it worked with Almora last draft.)

 

But, it does seem the possibility of saving money is there. Slot drops by $1 each step from 1-2-3. When you call a guy with the 2nd pick, "If we pick you, do you want to sign for slot or maybe 5% below slot? Or would you prefer that we pass and take Manea?" It's pretty hard for the guy to say no. The drop in slot is so sharp that it's hard for the teams behind to meet or beat your slot. Just slot-signing and then using the overslot on round 2 should get you somebody you'd rated in your top 20, since there's always somebody you like better than other teams that slips. (Pierce Johnson, for example.).

[davell]

Supposedly Houston wouldn't go over 6 mill for Appel last year. If he IS who we truly think is the top guy, no question, then I've thought about that scenario too. We could offer slightly more than Houston's slot of 7.2 by using our entire 5% money, plus taking 10k college guys in rounds 7-10. I can't see Appel wanting to be in Houston to begin with and I also think they're still likely to try the quantity approach. They know they've got a damn head start on Rodon next year as it is. I could see them taking Bryant at 1. Give him a 4.5 mill bonus and use the savings like last year. However, if Appel DOES go 1st, then we should get to underslot at 2, no matter who we're taking. Unless Gray is the consensus guy and the Twins or Rockies(sadly, can't remember who picks 3rd) pulls the same scenario on us.

[Guest]

I've wondered about that too, Dave. That wold be nice. Several things that dampen my expectation:

 

1. Last year was very soft on top. Would Correa be in the top five this year? Or Zunnina? I think the top is much stronger

2. Cubs were a strong superslot then, when we thought they could have leverage to slot or less.

3. I think they are strongly committed to getting BPA at #2. May see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they aren't going to pass on their top guy in order to save a million for round 2. (If they are really sold on Appel, I'd not be surprised to see them preoffer a superslot, in hopes Boras uses that to turn Houston off. To some degree I think that's how it worked with Almora last draft.)

 

But, it does seem the possibility of saving money is there. Slot drops by $1 each step from 1-2-3. When you call a guy with the 2nd pick, "If we pick you, do you want to sign for slot or maybe 5% below slot? Or would you prefer that we pass and take Manea?" It's pretty hard for the guy to say no. The drop in slot is so sharp that it's hard for the teams behind to meet or beat your slot. Just slot-signing and then using the overslot on round 2 should get you somebody you'd rated in your top 20, since there's always somebody you like better than other teams that slips. (Pierce Johnson, for example.).

 

You don't think Zunino would be top 5 this year? He's almost in the majors already. I know his stock has kinda gone back up since he was drafted, but that's sort of surprising to hear.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They need to scrap the draft and just having bonus pools. That'd be awesome.

[Guest]

They need to scrap the draft and just having bonus pools. That'd be awesome.

 

Like IFA?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They need to scrap the draft and just having bonus pools. That'd be awesome.

 

Like IFA?

 

Yes.

[Guest]

I've wondered about that too, Dave. That wold be nice. Several things that dampen my expectation:

 

1. Last year was very soft on top. Would Correa be in the top five this year? Or Zunnina? I think the top is much stronger

2. Cubs were a strong superslot then, when we thought they could have leverage to slot or less.

3. I think they are strongly committed to getting BPA at #2. May see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they aren't going to pass on their top guy in order to save a million for round 2. (If they are really sold on Appel, I'd not be surprised to see them preoffer a superslot, in hopes Boras uses that to turn Houston off. To some degree I think that's how it worked with Almora last draft.)

 

But, it does seem the possibility of saving money is there. Slot drops by $1 each step from 1-2-3. When you call a guy with the 2nd pick, "If we pick you, do you want to sign for slot or maybe 5% below slot? Or would you prefer that we pass and take Manea?" It's pretty hard for the guy to say no. The drop in slot is so sharp that it's hard for the teams behind to meet or beat your slot. Just slot-signing and then using the overslot on round 2 should get you somebody you'd rated in your top 20, since there's always somebody you like better than other teams that slips. (Pierce Johnson, for example.).

 

You don't think Zunino would be top 5 this year? He's almost in the majors already. I know his stock has kinda gone back up since he was drafted, but that's sort of surprising to hear.

 

Yeah, Zunino would probably be a top 5 pick this year too.

 

The initial thought on this year's draft was the top 3 college pitchers this year (back when Stanek was in this group) were around the same level as the top 3 from last year while the two prep OFs were lesser prospects than Almora. At this point, it's safe to say Appel in 2013 is definitely better than Appel 2012. Gray has replaced Stanek and I'd prefer him to Gausman and Zimmer while I'd take those two over Manaea (though I can see an argument the other way). It'll be interesting to see if Frazier and Meadows are gaining ground on Almora and even Buxton given their strong springs.