2013 Draft Discussion

[Hairyducked Idiot]

True...but Appel is so close that I feel like that minimizes the risk over a HS position guy, no?

 

That's how I feel. He could be 22 with no injury history by the time he makes his pro debut. Then he'll pitch a few innings and then be almost 23 before his first full pro season.

 

That, and the fact that he's been consistently at the top of the draft lists for so long, makes me trust him a lot more than most pitchers, even Manaea (don't like guys who come out of nowhere).

 

If not Appel, I'd rather just take Frazier.

[Guest]

Colvin was drafted out of Clemson.

 

Derp. i was totally thinking Ryan Harvey.

[Guest]

It's really hard not to want Frazier to add to our awesome positional wealth.

 

I think part of that comes from the worry over how much risk there is with a pitching prospect. I prefer Appel but there are times I too would rather pick Frazier/Meadows or hope for Dominic Smith, Jonathan Denney, Kris Bryant or Philip Ervin to continue to play well and make their way into the top two.

 

True...but Appel is so close that I feel like that minimizes the risk over a HS position guy, no?

 

All I can think of with high school hitters is Colvin and Vitters (and I suppose they both did make the majors, so that's not terrible by any means).

 

And I know I just pissed off what's left of the Vitters brigade.

 

Appel's age and ability to rapidly advance to the big leagues does help (and yes, any prep pick is going to be rather risky).

 

The risk of a pitcher is something that sometimes I can't shake, even for someone as advanced as Appel.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel updated his top 30, pushing Clint Frazier to #3, Jonathan Gray to #4 and dropping Ryne Stanek to #9. He also noted that he's more aggressive than the consensus on Frazier and Gray.

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1274034.html

 

That kind of electric stuff coming from a workhorse 6’4, 240 pound frame surely means Gray needed to move up my list but how much? You can see from the excellent video below of the UCLA outing that Gray has a clean arm action but an arm-heavy delivery and some effort at release. None of this is a huge issue as 100 mph doesn’t come effortlessly to anyone and no starter sits in the high-90’s, so it will all get toned down some in pro ball.

 

After comparing Gray to the top two players on the board (who I saw earlier this year), Stanford RHP Mark Appel (report & video) and Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea (report & video) you realize that Gray is in their class and you could argue he isn’t even the definite third prospect of the group. Given that Appel is trending up right now after deciding to be more aggressive (Fresno St. postgame audio or non-subscribers can hear it in episode one of my podcast), he is the #1 prospect in the draft right now. Even scouts that knocked Appel last year acknowledge he's taken a step forward this spring. Manaea hasn’t quite recaptured the stuff he showed on the Cape, but it’s early and cold right now and, at his best, Manaea would hit 98 as an athletic 6’5 lefty with a plus slider and change. I still feel like I have to give Manaea an edge over Gray, but it’s very close. Another month with both pitchers doing what they have been doing this year and they might flip.

 

The other factor at the top of the draft is Atlanta-area high school center fielder Clint Frazier. Two scouts characterized his early season performance as "gangbusters" and "hitting out of his mind." Frazier has always been the slightly less-tooled up and less projectable complement to local rival and #2 high school prospect center fielder Austin Meadows. That gap has widened in the early season and last night, Frazier hit a huge homerun for Loganville against Meadows' Grayson team in front of a huge scouting audience.

 

As for where Frazier falls with these three college arms, it comes down to upside. We know that everywhere in the draft, hitters hit their ceiling more often than pitchers, but three potential frontline (#1 or #2) starters all have an upside edge over Frazier. Frazier has a plus or plus-plus bat but no more than average raw power (roughly 15 annual homers), so even though he is a plus runner with a plus arm and huge bat speed, his pretty maxed-out 6'1, 190-pound frame limits his upside as an above-average bat and glove relative to position; not a superstar.

 

This puts Frazier behind 4th overall behind all three pitchers for many scouts, but I'm the guy that had a similar player to Frazier from last year's draft, Miami-area prep CF Albert Almora, as the top player in the draft. Almora went 6th overall to the Cubs in a much better draft and has above average to plus raw power, so he's a better prospect than Frazier. Right now, I'll take Frazier over Gray due to the command/delivery, new velocity and inherent pitching risks with Gray versus the certainty with Frazier. If Manaea's stuff doesn't come all the way back soon, I may have Frazier #2 overall, which would still a little high for many in the industry. Frazier is still absolutely a threat to go #1 overall since who goes where in the top five picks will come down to just a handful of decision makers.

[Rex Buckingham]

I feel like Houston may opt to think long-term rebuilding and go with Frazier if he continues to play like he has since they took a HS player last year with Correa and figure maybe they can bring the two along and have two big building blocks in their lineup for years to come rather than take a guy like Appel who could be ready in less than 2 years and waste some good, cheap years on a really bad team.

[Guest]

BA's Draft Tracker: March 13, which lists a few players whose stock has gone up over the past few weeks.

 

• Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma
  
• Matt Krook, LHP, St. Ignatius College Preparatory HS (San Francisco, CA) - interesting scouting report
  
• Christian Arroyo, SS, Hernando HS (Brooksville, FL)
  
• Ryan Cordell, OF, Liberty

 

Here is what the blurb said on Gray:

 

Sooners lefthander Dillon Overton entered the season as the higher-ranked prospect, but it didn't take long for Gray to leapfrog him. Gray has a power pitcher's frame at 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds. A 10th-round pick by the Yankees out of Eastern Oklahoma State JC in 2011, he's vaulted himself into the top half of the first round by touching triple digits on the radar gun early this season.

 

Gray's fastball sits in the 94-97 mph range, but gets as high as 100, as BA's Aaron Fitt detailed on the College Blog and on his Twitter feed, writing: "Jonathan Gray sure looked like a top-10 #mlbdraft pick today. 94-100, and easy, good slider and change. Sign me up."

 

"He's a big, strong, physical kid that's got a good arm," a National League crosschecker said. "He's fun to watch. His physical strength helps him hold his velocity and right now his pure stuff is better than his ability to use it, but it's as good of pure pure stuff as you could hope to see."

 

His fastball has a little more movement in the 93-95 mph range, but the ability to dial it up to 98-100 is a weapon and makes all of his other stuff play up. Gray's slider flashes the potential to grade out just as highly as his fastball.

 

"It's a total wipeout pitch at times," the scout said.

 

His changeup is his third pitch and could be an average offering. There aren't any major red flags with Gray's delivery and with continued development and consistency, he has ace potential. Over his first four weeks, Gray is 3-1, 2.03 with 27 strikeouts and eight walks over 27 innings.

[RammyFanny]

Lots of draft stuff on ESPN today. Law debut his top 50.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9019400/mark-appel-sean-manaea-ryne-stanek-top-prospects-2013-mlb-draft

 

1) Appel

Analysis: The Pirates selected Appel with the No. 8 overall pick last June, but couldn't come to terms on a deal. He chose to return to Stanford for his senior year and one last shot at Omaha, a decision that, so far, looks like a sound baseball one too, as he has come out firing bullets, with an improved slider and more aggressive approach overall.

 

2) Manea

Analysis: Manaea lit up the Cape Cod League last summer, hitting 96 mph with a plus slider, but has been a grade below that so far this spring. I'll see him against Minnesota's Tom Windle on Friday night at the Metrodome.

 

3) Meadows

Analysis: Meadows is one of the few high-upside athletes in this draft, a potential five-tool player who, like most players of that ilk, faces the strongest questions about the present and future caliber of his hit tool.

4) Stanek

 

5) A. Wilson

 

6) Bryant

 

7) Frazier

Analysis: Frazier has the best bat speed in this draft class but is probably maxed out physically and will play a corner in pro ball -- right if his arm fully recovers from a recent bout of tendinits, left if it doesn't -- so the entire bet here is on his hit tool. He has also started the season strong in front of the right people, including two home runs on Tuesday in a heavily scouted matchup against Meadows.

 

8) Gray

Analysis: Gray was 92-97 when I saw him on opening weekend and was 94-98, touching 100, last weekend, with a plus slider. He was drafted twice before, by the Royals (13th round out of junior college) and Yankees (10th round as a draft-eligible sophomore), but cleaned his body up this year right in time to enter the draft again and become a first-rounder.

 

9) Denney

 

10) Shipley

 

Others: Dominic Smith (19), Reese Mcguire (28), Moran (30), Judge (32), Ziomek (37), DJ Peterson (43), Jagielo (48).

 

 

Then Law had a chat. Interesting draft questions include:

 

Jonny (Seattle)

What creates such separation between McGuire and Denney for top prep catchers. I know a lot of rankings have McGuire higher (which doesn't mean much) and was curious how you see the two so differently. Thanks Keith.

Klaw

(12:05 PM)

Denney's much more of a complete package right now. McGuire doesn't have Denney's power, and had trouble receiving better quality stuff last summer. I don't think there's a good case at all for having Denney behind McGuire.

 

Billy (Chicago)

Keith, I enjoyed your Top 50 list today. Any chance my Cubs try to move up the local kid LHP Trey Ball to #2 and save some $?

Klaw

(12:11 PM)

Why would they want to do that?

 

Rob (PVD)

Where would Carlos Rodon rank if he was in this draft class?

Klaw

(12:12 PM)

First or second. Probably second, but if you want to argue first, I'm open-minded.

 

Kevin (Florida)

You aren't all in on the Clint Frazier bandwagon? Could he really fall to the Red Sox at 7th?

Klaw

(12:13 PM)

I have him in the top ten - that's pretty "all in" for me. He just doesn't have the upside of Meadows - Frazier is shorter, smaller, and absolutely has to play a corner.

Red (Texas)

Do you put much stock in Appel having "no leverage" making him a more appealing player to Houston?

Klaw

(12:14 PM)

He has leverage, so saying he has none or very little is begging the question. He has less as a senior than he did last year, but he's also in better shape relative to the rest of this class, and given his background he doesn't have the urgency to sign that many other players would have.

 

Jim (Albany)

How is next years draft stacking up? Should a team like the Yankee's with a first rounder and 2 sandwich picks try to go with a big signability guy and be ok with not getting that player to keep the pick for next year?

Klaw

(12:16 PM)

Already looks better than this year's, college and HS.

 

Javier Zanetti (Milan)

Will you be at the Manaea-Windle game? If so what are you expecting to see from Manaea? His stuff as been a little down in frigid conditions.

Klaw

(12:17 PM)

I will be there. Looking forward to it - and yes, this is a big start for him as he won't be able to blame the cold this time.

 

Adrian (New Jersey)

Where do you see Colin Moran getting drafted? Top 10? Top 5?

Klaw

(12:36 PM)

No. He's on my ranking today, probably below where he'll be drafted, but I think top 10 is WAY too high for him.

 

Steve (Charlotte)

When do you come out with your first mock draft?

Klaw

(12:49 PM)

Early to mid May.

 

 

Piece on Manea:

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/9050726/indiana-state-sean-manaea-steps-mlb-draft-spotlight-college-baseball

[Guest]

Kohl Stewart has been fantastic in his first two starts back from injury. Also good to hear that his injury was from football, not pitching.

[RammyFanny]

Kris Bryant 3-3, 3 HR's, 2BB tonight. :shock:

 

Stanek has been demoted to Sunday starter as well apparently.

[CubsWin]

Kris Bryant 3-3, 3 HR's, 2BB tonight. :shock:

Wow. Law had him 6th. College bats are the safest bet to make it and Bryant is distinguishing himself as not only the best college bat in this draft, but perhaps a really good one in any draft. He's certainly in the conversation for the Cubs at #2 in my book. I hope Manaea performs well tomorrow and throughout the spring. It'd be nice for there to be 3 really good high-end guys at the top of this draft for Theo & Co. to choose from.

[Guest]

Temper your excitement, it was against a poor BYU team.

[Guest]

Kris Bryant 3-3, 3 HR's, 2BB tonight. :shock:

Wow. Law had him 6th. College bats are the safest bet to make it and Bryant is distinguishing himself as not only the best college bat in this draft, but perhaps a really good one in any draft. He's certainly in the conversation for the Cubs at #2 in my book. I hope Manaea performs well tomorrow and throughout the spring. It'd be nice for there to be 3 really good high-end guys at the top of this draft for Theo & Co. to choose from.

 

Be careful with the Bryant hype. Just look at this from the guy who has him 6th in this draft:

 

@keithlaw The latter. RT @RyanMoulder1: @keithlaw Is Kris Bryant a rare college power bat or just good for this years draft?

[Cubswin11]

Interesting (I guess) article on Manaea from ESPN. I wonder how the FO will value (or devalue) due to "character" with all the stuff they praised about Almora being professional, polished, hard worker, etc.

 

"Yeah, I threw my bullpen today and just, uh, had a chillax day," the Indiana State left-hander said after practice two days before his scheduled start against Minnesota.

 

It just feels that way because of his personality and the nonchalance with which he describes his personal life and baseball career.

 

"He's a pretty happy-go-lucky guy," Indiana State pitching coach Tyler Herbst said. "He's not that fierce warrior every day of the week."

 

other schools passed on Manaea because of his grades and the fear he wasn't committed enough to stay eligible at a big university.

 

"School just wasn't a high priority for him," Herbst said. "He didn't work at it. But [assistant coach Brian] Smiley saw him at a showcase and said we should keep an eye on him, and he's a guy we could have a chance to get. So we took a flier on a talented left-hander and hoped he'd get better in the classroom, and he did. He's been low-maintenance ever since."

 

It took Manaea until his senior year of high school -- almost too late in the recruiting cycle -- to understand the non-baseball responsibilities that come with chasing his baseball dream. He says his high school grades were due to pure laziness. He chose naps or video games before he chose homework. It was teenager stuff, not an actual character flaw.

 

So when he got to campus, got involved in the academic counseling program and adjusted relatively quickly, it wasn't a surprise. That pseudo-hurdle had been cleared, and now Herbst had a toy to play with.

 

"When I pitch, inside I just feel chill," Manaea said. "I get a few songs in my head, and in between pitches, when I'm getting the ball back, I will sing those songs to myself. It keeps me in rhythm, and I have fun on the mound."

 

"He's not an analytical guy by any means, but he's curious," Herbst said. "If you want to make a point, you need to tell him why. Then he's on board. He's trying to understand."

 

Clearly nothing bad with a character/makeup like this but I wonder how our FO weighs the free and easy, laid back character with some of the stuff they have been preaching about makeup. Obviously talent always wins out in the end, but if they have him and someone else equally rated and they are both available to pick at 2 this could be a deciding factor.

 

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/9050726/indiana-state-sean-manaea-steps-mlb-draft-spotlight-college-baseball

[Guest]

Why is being free and easy or laid back something you think they'd perceive as a negative (especially for a pitcher)?

[Cubswin11]

Why is being free and easy or laid back something you think they'd perceive as a negative (especially for a pitcher)?

To me, personally, it isn't something I'd perceive as a negative on a potential prospect. I was just throwing out the question as to what people think the FO would think/grade someone like that with the heavy talk last year about good makeup guys, hard workers, polished/professional/good character players, etc.

 

A lot of great players have similar laid back makeup, but maybe the FO views makeup like this as something that could be a roadblock in development down the road in not wanting to improve/work hard.

 

On a personal level, however, I do have a problem with someone who uses the word "chillax" in any context.

[Guest]

I'm just saying I could see an argument where being laid back being a positive for a pitcher in that they wouldn't be too emotional and/or high strung during games.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I guess, but I sort of prefer the "did whatever it took to get better" attitude of Appel.

 

Last time we had a pitcher chillax it was Maples when he decided that he didn't really need to follow the Cubs' offseason regimen and mixed in some of his own.

[Cubswin11]

I'm just saying I could see an argument where being laid back being a positive for a pitcher in that they wouldn't be too emotional and/or high strung during games.

Agree. There's an argument to be made for what end of the spectrum you think is most importand for your players to be on between "chillax" and "emotional" or "Super High Strung" and I'd guess most prefer guys to be somewhere in the middle with a mix of both.

[Guest]

I guess, but I sort of prefer the "did whatever it took to get better" attitude of Appel.

 

Last time we had a pitcher chillax it was Maples when he decided that he didn't really need to follow the Cubs' offseason regimen and mixed in some of his own.

Don't get me wrong. I was just throwing that out there.

 

The more I think about it, the more I want Appel. I hope it's more than pie in the sky to think that the Astros might pass on him. Hopefully they're looking to draft someone to sign under slot again.

[Guest]

Want to see Sean Manaea vs Tom Windle tonight?

 

Hopefully this link will work at game time: http://apps.ohlulz.com/ncaa/?lulz=rtmp://cp98724.live.edgefcs.net:1935/live&id=minn_m-basebl@62154

 

If not, ULive on CBS will have the game. Go here: http://ulive.cbssports.com/ Then, click Live Events and scroll to that game. Currently, it's on the second page of Live Events.

 

The game starts at 6:35 PM Central.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Stanford live broadcasts their games too. Appel starts at 9 p.m. tonight, I believe.

 

I just noticed ESPN3 has a ton of college baseball. Nothing too exciting tonight in terms of prospects.

[Guest]

Stanford live broadcasts their games too. Appel starts at 9 p.m. tonight, I believe.

 

I just noticed ESPN3 has a ton of college baseball. Nothing too exciting tonight in terms of prospects.

 

Stanford isn't the only one; most major schools do (frustratingly, UCLA doesn't). This forum linked here has been posted a few times here; they compile links to feeds of all college baseball teams that do live broadcasts.

 

The big deal with tonight's Indiana State-Minnesota game is that not only does Indiana State not live broadcast any of their games, only two Missouri Valley Conference teams do (Missouri St and Illinois St). Thankfully, Indiana State plays both those schools on the road.

[Guest]

Frazier and Meadows have hit HRs in their respective games.

[davell]

Windle was sitting 91 in the 1st, Manaea 92-94. Up to 95 in the 2nd.

[davell]

Ziomek continues to prove we've got zero shot at him in the 2nd. He's perfect thru 5, with 4 K's. Gray continues his quest to make us consider him at 2, he's gone 4, 2 hits, no walks, 5 K's.